Right, we know that Nintendo thought there was enough of a base to steadily sell 5m consoles between November and April. The decision to not give it the massive marketing push associated with a new console will have been made some time ago, and these system updates are comprehensive enough to suggest they've been in the pipeline for some time.
Seems to me that it was a 'soft' launch in several ways, something I've suspected for a while. The huge misjudgement was the amount of consoles that would effectively "sell themselves", and while I think the rest is effectively as planned, the question now is whether the strategy has misfired horribly enough to taint perception of the system irredeemably. We know from the 360 and, to a lesser extent, the 3DS that (deservedly) awful press can be overcome, but there are no guarantees.
The general confusion and lack of awareness of just what the Wii U is might work in Nintendo's favour here. I cannot deny that I've been very happy with the console, but I do think I'm effectively a beta tester. I didn't like it when MS did it, so I can't give Nintendo a pass; I just hope their beta program lasts less than 2-3 years.