Support NeoGAF

[GraveRobberX]

Lol this is seriously bumming me out.

I already lost Sega....

They have oodles of money

The Wii gives them huge fucking buffer with the 100mil they sold

They are just squandering those profits away and throwing money at it, right now it's a losing battle

If they take a severe price cut, say $199.99 or hell $149.99, that's a fuck ton of loss that will chew away at that stockpile of money, that should be used as tool to further their company, not allocate those funds to wipe away mistakes and think they can recoup it in the long run

 

[Azelover]

And this after all those people who said all Nintendo need was an HD Wii, including Pachter.

I knew from day one, when rumours about a 6 inch touch screen controller emerged that if true thus was going to be a disaster, as I knew the Wii would be huge.

I still think Nintendo is going to win this generation somehow, perhaps with a redesign or revision of the Wii U. I think this is like the Virtual Boy, they'll have to go back to the values of the original Wii before going forward. A Pokemon of sorts.

 

[Sakura]

If there's a retailer with an issue with Nintendo, it's Reggie's job to make that problem disappear. To this point, the issue appeared to be with hardware only, but on their bigger games this year Nintendo has had issues restocking Amazon, Best Buy, Target, Gamestop etc.

I think it is more a retailer thing. If Amazon decided to order 50,000 copies, but there is demand for 100,000, then I don't see how that is Reggie's fault.

 

[JoeM86]

This is extremely disingenuous. Are you denying the dire straits the WiiU is in, from a business perspective, if it sells even triple what Pachter is predicting?

Ok, so everyone else here is being unfair and hyperbolic about it being a failure. So, two questions:

1. What's your prediction?
2. How would you classify something as a sales failure? What's the threshold between success and failure?

No, I'm not.

I'm just saying that people are saying that only ridiculously high figures would show it to be on the way to recovery.

1. My prediction is around 429k
2. The Wii U is close to it, but it still has potential

That's why most posts say "if the numbers are true, it's a disaster".

While many are saying Nintendo are doomed, to fire Iwata etc., treating the numbers as factual

 

[Pillville]

Its looking more like the 7th planet from the Sun.

 

[Xun]

Are we believing his predictions now? Does anyone know how historically accurate this guy has been? Because if memory serves me right, he's been a mess.

Not to say it will be higher, but we should save our reaction until official numbers are known.

Shhh, people are just ensuring the status quo on GAF remains intact.

 

[Baron Aloha]

Nintendo to make cartridge attachment for PS4. Full circle.

*fixed*

 

[Partition]

when can we expect a price drop

I want to pick one up bad but don't want to regret it in a couple months

 

[Aquamarine]

Are we believing his predictions now? Does anyone know how historically accurate this guy has been? Because if memory serves me right, he's been a mess.

Not to say it will be higher, but we should save our reaction until official numbers are known.

Already posted:

Pachter's Accuracy in 2013

Example:
January 2013 - NPD Reporting Month
50. - Pachter's ranking (out of all the GAF predictions)
61. - Total amount of GAF predictions
249,000 - Amount of sales off of the real NPD sales

January 2013: 50./61. Pachter - 249,000
February 2013: 64./72. Pachter - 270,000
March 2013: 46./79. Pachter - 139,500
April 2013: 52./65. Pachter
May 2013: 22./49. Pachter - 32,699
June 2013: 45./61. Pachter - 104,000
July: 43./57. Pachter - 49,000
August: 6./50. Pachter
September: 5./62. Pachter - 159,000
October: 51./51. Pachter - 313,000

 

[Majukun]

I keep reading that Nintendo will partnership with either Microsoft or Sony, truth be told what I fear would happens is that Nintendo would probably drop the console market after the 3DS and go full on the iOS market.

i actually see nintendo as a pretty successful publisher on home consoles if they can play their cards well...they already have a rich portfolio of studios and IP,and plenty of money still in their pockets from the wii and the millions of nintendo games sold..they going third party could actually be a greater good for the industry

 

[RobFox64tm]

Honest question: where is Pachter getting these numbers? Is he privy to some actual information, or is he just assuming based on the release of competing systems? Also, why are people in here taking this as fact instead of the speculation that it is?

 

[Vandiger]

Not much to say, just expected. Results speak for themselves.

 

[greg400]

Honest question: where is Pachter getting these numbers? Is he privy to some actual information, or is he just assuming based on the release of competing systems? Also, why are people in here taking this as fact instead of the speculation that it is?

He's pulling them directly from his ass.

 

[Stet]

Already posted:

That doesn't say whether his estimations were high or low.

 

[Taker666]

Lol this is seriously bumming me out.

I already lost Sega....

Sega
a)wasted most of their money on genesis add-ons, two minute tv ads and two failed consoles.
b)They didn't have a successful handheld to back them up.

When it comes down to it there's still a good chance that Nintendo will sell more hardware this November/December worldwide than Microsoft or Sony.

Nintendo have a failing home console and a successful handheld....Sony have a successful home console and a failing handheld. There's not really much difference. You could argue that Nintendo are in a better position..as the Wii U certainly has more potential system sellers announced than Vita.

 

[Aquamarine]

Honest question: where is Pachter getting these numbers? Is he privy to some actual information, or is he just assuming based on the release of competing systems? Also, why are people in here taking this as fact instead of the speculation that it is?

Pachter does get NPD numbers every month...at the same time as everyone else on December 12th. Before that he doesn't get anything.

What he does perform is channel checks---Pachter goes to stores and speaks with the manager to find out how many of each console were sold at that particular store during a certain time frame.

But it's very small scale. The difference between Pachter and NPD is that NPD actually gets combined sales numbers from EVERY major USA retailer. Pachter may go to only one or two Wal-Marts for their store-wide sales numbers.

^ It's a combination of the above and "intuition." Pachter also has access to the full NPD database, so he can make more informed predictions...despite this, the average GAFfer usually performs better than him.

 

[MilkBeard]

The Sega Saturn sold 96K in November 1996...that was its best November throughout its entire lifespan.

Damn that's bad. So between Saturn and Dreamcast then.

 

[Jinfash]

The very sad thing is that even if he's off by, say, 50%... that's still a really horrible number. Damn.

 

[simples]

silver lining, maybe they will start having dreamcast style fire sales where I can pick it up

wii u, Mario, Zelda. 50$

 

[UNCMark]

I think it is more a retailer thing. If Amazon decided to order 50,000 copies, but there is demand for 100,000, then I don't see how that is Reggie's fault.

You're saying that in a week's time Nintendo of America, which Reggie is in charge of, couldn't have supplied the country's biggest online retailer with more units? If that's true, then Nintendo is much worse off than anyone expected.

 

[Log4Girlz]

The very sad thing is that even if he's off by, say, 50%... that's still a really horrible number. Damn.

I honestly cannot imagine it selling less than 350k. I can't.

 

[dolemite]

That doesn't say whether his estimations were high or low.

But it does say that he is off most of the time.

 

[richiek]

They have oodles of money

This.

Comparisons to Saturn & Dreamcast are asinine. Sega was way more strapped for cash during the Saturn & Dreamcast era. Nintendo on the other hand have not lost money on a console since the Virtual Boy and are sitting on a huge warchest of cash. Nintendo can afford to keep the Wii U in the market for as long as they want.

 

[Kurtofan]

Sega
a)wasted most of their money on genesis add-ons, two minute tv ads and two failed consoles.
b)They didn't have a successful handheld to back them up.

When it comes down to it there's still a good chance that Nintendo will sell more hardware this November/December worldwide than Microsoft or Sony.

Nintendo have a failing home console and a successful handheld....Sony have a successful home console and a failing handheld. There's not really much difference. You could argue that Nintendo are in a better position..as the Wii U certainly has more potential system sellers announced than Vita.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic here but isn't an HD console really much more expensive to produce?

 

[AniHawk]

I honestly cannot imagine it selling less than 350k. I can't.

i think i gave it 300k for november myself, but how does it do 6x-7x october? i think the vita last year managed about 5x last year but that was with some popular bundles.

 

[MilkBeard]

When it comes down to it there's still a good chance that Nintendo will sell more hardware this November/December worldwide than Microsoft or Sony.

Not a chance, considering the PS4 has sold over 2 million in November worldwide. I just don't see it happening. for WiiU.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I've said it elsewhere, but my suspicion is that the November Wii U number will probably be pretty terrible, but I highly doubt it'll be this terrible.

 

[Ninjimbo]

I remember when Pachter predicted the Wii U's domination. How fast things change.

 

[JCizzle]

And this after all those people who said all Nintendo need was an HD Wii, including Pachter.

I knew from day one, when rumours about a 6 inch touch screen controller emerged that if true thus was going to be a disaster, as I knew the Wii would be huge.

I still think Nintendo is going to win this generation somehow, perhaps with a redesign or revision of the Wii U. I think this is like the Virtual Boy, they'll have to go back to the values of the original Wii before going forward. A Pokemon of sorts.

To be fair, they were clamoring for a HD version about two years before the U was released. Nintendo was just too late to the market.

 

[Snakeyes]

i actually see nintendo as a pretty successful publisher on home consoles if they can play their cards well...they already have a rich portfolio of studios and IP,and plenty of money still in their pockets from the wii and the millions of nintendo games sold..they going third party could actually be a greater good for the industry

Let's not start up this crap again... dropping hardware hasn't worked out for Atari, Hudson, SNK or Sega. It would result in a disaster for Nintendo as well.

 

[nordique]

At this point I'm starting to believe that Wii was actually just dumb luck. I think these guys are just out of it. They can't follow the market, at least in the console space.

Stick to what you are good at: portables.

Again, converge your console and portable lines going forward. It will be best for Nintendo at the end of the day.

I don't think the Wii was dumb luck. There was a lot of (very) smart business decisions behind that system.

The Wii U on the other hand, I can see where they were coming from, but Nintendo clearly missed the mark with the message from the get-go and after they launched the 3DS for 250$ (blinded by making more profits rather than what actually made those consoles successful in the first place) they were too slow to react (look at how they responded to the 3DS fledging sales vs the Wii U's)

3DS has turned it around pretty nicely, but Wii U....even though many casuals have moved on, there are still some who would be interested in a Wii successor. They don't know one exists however. Many core Nintendo fans are waiting for more games (and with more Nintendo games that come, more fans pick up the system). Your regular core gamers either were never gonna get a Nintendo system anyway, or have no interest in a weak console (relative to expectations for this generation).

Nintendo dropped the ball in a big way. You can see where they were going with the Wii U, but it was arguably launched a year or two too late.

 

[Enter The 36 Chambers]

Holy shit.

Rip Nintendo.

 

[greg400]

I'm not trying to be pessimistic here but isn't an HD console really much more expensive to produce?

Yes and as such it's harder to make a profit from the get go on them. Sony really shit the bed with the cost to manufacture on the PS3 and as such dug themselves in a hole. They only recently started selling it at a profit, and I'm pretty sure they are even selling the PS4 at a loss initially (not as major as the PS3 was obviously).

Nintendo isn't losing as much money with the Wii U as Sony was on the PS3 despite the sales being lower.

 

[Crash Station]

I'm not going to believe that until we see the numbers. If true, I have no idea what to say.

 

[Mariah Carey]

Problem is the smartphone market will keep pushing into that and sooner or later push it out. ( i hope that never happens)

Yeah, there's no real bright future for Nintendo in the cards.

They simply don't have it in them to keep up in the home console space.

I'm not convinced going third party will be all that fruitful for them. The people that play PlayStations and Xboxes don't really care enough about the Nintendo franchises to buy them en masse. They'd just be another Sega.

3DS is actually pretty horrendous when taken in context with its history of handheld systems. I don't think it'll reach GameBoy Advance sales, let alone Game Boy sales, let alone DS sales. The market is dwindling and eventually is just going to disappear to next-to-nothing.

Nintendo might be able to make a splash if they embrace mobile, but the whole reason they're not doing that now is that they wouldn't make anywhere near the profit they're accustomed to--and they're right.

Nintendo could just license their properties for use in other media, or perhaps even open up animation and movie studios themselves. Still, their strengths aren't really in storytelling and their IPs don't really lend themselves to deep storytelling (mmmmaaaayyybe Zelda, but it's a long-shot). They'd just be another face in the crowd next to the DreamWorks and Pixars out there.

I don't see a future where the company grows or even maintains what they currently have. I see them either eventually being bought by a giant or just cutting back, buying back all their shares and eventually just becomes a small, private company.

I'm sure Nintendo will always 'exist' in some form, but the Nintendo that we know today and for the past couple decades, for lack of a better term, is doomed.

 

[Shufel]

I'm 100% sure the sales are bad, but I doubt they're quite this bad. Pachter isn't reliable and this just seems really low even for Wii U. I'm guessing more like 200-300k to be honest (which again is still horrible), but we'll see. The Wii U is basically never in the top 100 on Amazon so that's not good news at all, even if Amazon isn't exactly reliable either.

 

[Log4Girlz]

i think i gave it 300k for november myself, but how does it do 6x-7x october? i think the vita last year managed about 5x last year but that was with some popular bundles.

Perhaps massively discounted bundles did the trick, like that $250 one that threw in a kitchen sink. *crosses fingers*

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

silver lining, maybe they will start having dreamcast style fire sales where I can pick it up

wii u, Mario, Zelda. 50$

Loss of competition is never good for an industry. As a consumer sure you get a bargain, but you'll get no support or warranty, and once you've played all the games it's a cheap paperweight.

 

[JordanN]

I remember when Pachter predicted the Wii U's domination. How fast things change.

When did he say that? I think he was always against it.
http://www.computerandvideogames.co...years-too-late-has-dumbest-name-ever-pachter/
http://www.gamerlive.tv/article/video-game-analyst-michael-pachter-says-nintendo-disarray

Depending on pricing, the system will be either a phenomenal success or a phenomenal failure, as competitive bundles for Xbox 360 with Kinect and PS3 with Move are likely to be priced below $300 by the time the Wii U launches."

 

[Aquamarine]

This.

Comparisons to Saturn & Dreamcast are asinine. Sega was way more strapped for cash during the Saturn & Dreamcast era. Nintendo on the other have not lost money on a console since the Virtual Boy and are sitting on a huge warchest of cash. Nintendo can afford to keep the Wii U in the market for as long as they want.

I know for a fact that Nintendo Co., Ltd. actually has all of the old NPD databases in their possession and they still look at old equivalencies once in a while.

Through decades of USA sell-through data you can piece together an idea of what's "successful" and what's not. Saturn and Dreamcast numbers fall into the "unsuccessful" realm and are useful as "unsuccessful" data points.

That's been my purpose in digging up these old numbers. Console situations are always unique...the whole purpose of sharing them is to demonstrate unsuccessful examples.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Yeah, there's no real bright future for Nintendo in the cards.

Well no, that's why they left that industry.

 

[idlewild_]

Black Friday was in December this year. You can't compare November year over year.

Black Friday is never in December (the latest Thanksgiving can occur is the 28th as it did this year.)

 

[greg400]

When did he say that? I think he was always against it.
http://www.computerandvideogames.co...years-too-late-has-dumbest-name-ever-pachter/
http://www.gamerlive.tv/article/video-game-analyst-michael-pachter-says-nintendo-disarray

http://www.destructoid.com/pachter-wii-hd-could-seriously-damage-ps3-comeback-138050.phtml

 

[Cromat]

I would characterize it as follows:

Under 300k: disastrous
300-400k: bad but not surprising
400-500k: serviceable
Over 500k: encouraging, all things considered

I think it will end up between 350-400.

 

[cafemomo]

Nintendo has not other options, either kill it and get on the train with the X1 and PS4(unlikely to happen)

Or do a Pokemon MMO, this can save the Wii U.
A Pokemon MMO will save the Wii u and probably make it outsell the PS4/X1.
But it will also need a Starfox game like a real sequel to Starfox 64 using the Wii U's maximum power.

Those games and Wii u is saved, if not then it's dead.

Lel Pokémon MMO
It's never gonna happen and if it does, it's not gonna save the WIiU

 

[JordanN]

http://www.destructoid.com/pachter-wii-hd-could-seriously-damage-ps3-comeback-138050.phtml

That's Wii HD, not Wii U.

 

[Baron Aloha]

I'm 100% sure the sales are bad, but I doubt they're quite this bad. Pachter isn't reliable and this just seems really low even for Wii U. I'm guessing more like 200-300k to be honest (which again is still horrible), but we'll see. The Wii U is basically never in the top 100 on Amazon so that's not good news at all, even if Amazon isn't exactly reliable either.

Amazon doesn't sell the Wii U directly. Whenever I checked the M&L bundle prices they were always $320-330, which is more than the MSRP, so I'm not surprised it wasn't in the top 100. That said, the poster who said it is Reggie's job to make sure that Amazon sells the Wii U is spot on. That's just more arrogance on their part that they are "ok" with a retailer like Amazon choosing not to stock their product.

 

[AzaK]

there is always something really stupid as a bottleneck on the hardware they release

Gamecube had a mini-dvd that held less content on a disk so you needed compression

Wii was SD (but it went casual viral)

Wii U has the gamepad streaming and low powered for this generation and too expensive not really sure

They can't seem to just get it right day 1

the portables are bullshit too. I mean the Vita really deserved the sales that the 3DS is enjoying. that OLED man damn I just don't even get that.

Nintendo portables have always won even though they had the same kind of weak lame shit you find in Nintendo home consoles

Gameboy came out with 1 color many shades of green

took forever to get gameboy color

still Nintendo destroyed any challenger that came up in the portable market
3DS almost got sunk for a while there things looked bad after launch


I'm just wondering when will the same bad-luck at home will catch up with them on the portable side?

Yeah it's weird. I guess they're always looking to cut costs, to calculate which things are not important and don't add those in. If the rest of their system is fine then it's all OK and it sells and people are happy (enough). If they miss too much though, as they seem to have with the Wii U, they're in shit street.

For too long now they've held this belief that they alone can keep their platform relevant. In a way they're right in that they can remain profitable even if within the broader gaming "Scene" they are minor players (GC). However, the industry has changed a LOT in the last 6-7 years with phones, tablets, Facebook, loss of mid-tier publishers, AAAAAAAAA cine-games being big sellers and the resurgence of indie on console, Steam etc. With so many options now, people don't have to go "I'll get the Nintendo machine with no third party support and this weird GamePad I'm not sure of".

People have moved to either handhelds (In Japan) and a lot of casual, bite size gaming is on phones now. That leaves a lot of the core left for that console/PC, "enthusiast" experience and most of them seem to want to gravitate to the superior tech machines with high-end cine-games, great digital, friends etc.

I expect Nintendo will continue doing what they're doing and not change. They will keep trying to get their games out, partner with some people, make some remakes or roll our more Wii Sports club sports etc. They will keep it going for another 3 years and then do their next machine. Nintendo would drop it only as an extremely last resort. If they can get back to profitability and cruise along, I think they will, then regroup again and try something zany.

All I know for sure, is noone should expect their next machine to be a high end gaming rig.

 

[KillerMan91]

Sega
a)wasted most of their money on genesis add-ons, two minute tv ads and two failed consoles.
b)They didn't have a successful handheld to back them up.

When it comes down to it there's still a good chance that Nintendo will sell more hardware this November/December worldwide than Microsoft or Sony.

Nintendo have a failing home console and a successful handheld....Sony have a successful home console and a failing handheld. There's not really much difference. You could argue that Nintendo are in a better position..as the Wii U certainly has more potential system sellers announced than Vita.

Except that there is. PS3 alone sells more software currently than all Nintendo systems combined. At the end of latest quarter 3DS software sales were still behind even PSP launched aligned.... That is pretty horrible. Then of course the other market is in huge decline because of damage dealt by smartphones and the other one is not. Currently Sony is in way better position than Nintendo.

 

[FourMyle]

Lel Pokémon MMO
It's never gonna happen and if it does, it's not gonna save the WIiU

This. Nintendo has never made an MMO before. I don't know where people get this idea that they'll be any good at it.