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[Unknown Soldier]

And miss out on some of the best games out there? No thanks.

The games will still be there when it's $99.

 

[Bob White]

Browsing through the PS Store on my new Vita has been a revelation. If Nintendo just launched a modern eShop where you could buy every first party game they've made from NES through Wii, the system would sell on that alone. Not to even mention the unfathomable amounts of cold cash they would make on the sales of the games themselves. Hell, just NES through N64 would be a good start.

Now I understand what everybody has been bitching about with regards to Nintendo's online experience.

Blows my mind how no one high up at Nintendo sees this. This shit should have been done 2 to 3 years ago.

 

[cyberheater]

Someone give me a good reason why Iwata is still CEO.

I really don't know. The way Japanese companies operate is baffling. He would have been forced to resign a long time ago if it was a western company.

 

[prag16]

This line of thought is curious because it doesn't actually support your argument... SNIP

Holy hell that was a long post.

You're right of course.

But what I took away from his post is the he thinks if the SUPPORT from Nintendo (worse than GCN), economy of the era (worse than GCN), and price (worse than GCN even after considering inflation), we'd have a different situation.

It's a lot of ifs, but I tend to agree that a $199 Wii U in a drastically better economy with Smash and Kart already out would be much more competitive, and probably actually outselling GCN.

So I think you guys are kind of arguing two different things.

 

[metalslimer]

Someone give me a good reason why Iwata is still CEO. The DS and Wii was a success but that was then this is now.

Because generally CEOs don't get fired until closer to the end of the FY I believe. Honestly if they actually post negative numbers for the holiday, he could be out at the end of January like Wada was.

It's a lot of ifs, but I tend to agree that a $199 Wii U in a drastically better economy with Smash and Kart already out would be much more competitive, and probably actually outselling GCN.

I even disagree with this. If the Wii U still had the same perception it does now it could be 150 and it would still be selling like crap.

 

[Amir0x]

Someone give me a good reason why Iwata is still CEO. The DS and Wii was a success but that was then this is now.

peace vibes from the success of DS and Wii and the relative turn around of 3DS from complete failure to moderate success.

But although I am smart enough to know saying "Nintendo is doomed" is shortsighted considering history, I am also aware that we are about to enter a stage in this industry that is also without precedent - an era in which gaming dedicated handhelds are fast becoming irrelevant (ask Y2Kev for an explanation on why 3DS is not doing near as impressive as some think), and Nintendo cannot release a relevant bit of console hardware either.

What will happen if they start to become unable to make a successful handheld as well? Because that time IS coming, the trends are incredibly clear.

But what I took away from his post is the he thinks if the SUPPORT from Nintendo (worse than GCN), economy of the era (worse than GCN), and price (worse than GCN even after considering inflation), we'd have a different situation.

It's a lot of ifs, but I tend to agree that a $199 Wii U in a drastically better economy with Smash and Kart already out would be much more competitive, and probably actually outselling GCN.

But I hope you understand it's a completely meaningless argument to have. That's like arguing "well if there was a nuclear war during the Gamecube era, the Wii U would be doing better right now!" Such hypotheticals merely fade into wishful thinking, because there is no way to prove whether the scenario would ever actually be true or not, and it simply avoids stating what is here at face value.

The face value of the night is "Wii U is performing demonstrably worse than GCN by every metric available." The why is the only thing really up for discussion, I feel

 

[Log4Girlz]

If Wii U had sold only 150k in November we'd already have heard of mass sudoku inside Nintendo.

Are you saying their days are numbered?

 

[Valente]

Anything below 1 million for the month of November is an abysmal failure in the console business.

 

[Snaku]

What will happen if they start to become unable to make a successful handheld as well? Because that time IS coming, the trends are incredibly clear.

Pokemon iOS, with microtransactions out the ass.

 

[kittenbreath]

If Wii U had sold only 150k in November we'd already have heard of mass sudoku inside Nintendo.

But what do I know, I said the same thing about it selling less than 100k in January...

You're thinking of a different word, but I like this mental image better.

 

[michaelius]

I think this is key. It's like Nintendo said what's the cheapest technology we can use that will just provide enough performance for HD gaming at 720p.
If WiiU was twice as powerful, I feel the launch software would have been a lot stronger and more third parties would have been interested in developing for it.

Actually crazy thing is they didn't - if they haven't used low power parts they could have gotten system that would at least run x360/ps3 at better quality.

 

[Margalis]

Was there some sort of incident that damaged Harker's credibility that I wasn't aware of? He's been around for as long as I can remember, has a solid track record, and is vetted by other credible sources/leakers.

A bunch of "insiders" on GAF all call each other credible. Then one by one slowly get banned for repeatedly posting "insider" information that is false. "Insider information" that comes from random PMs from other "insiders", all of whom have meaninglessly called each other credible.

I ask again, if he has secret infoz why can't he just share them now, instead of waiting until NPD numbers come out then saying "I guess what I hinted at was right?"

Anyone can drop hints like "I hear Funky Barn is struggling" then when NPD comes out say "yep, I was right!"

Give me a reason to believe that any of these insiders aren't mailroom employees at best.

 

[Maidenpool?]

peace vibes from the success of DS and Wii and the relative turn around of 3DS from complete failure to moderate success.

But although I am smart enough to know saying "Nintendo is doomed" is shortsighted considering history, I am also aware that we are about to enter a stage in this industry that is also without precedent - an era in which gaming dedicated handhelds are fast becoming irrelevant (ask Y2Kev for an explanation on why 3DS is not doing near as impressive as some think), and Nintendo cannot release a relevant bit of console hardware either.

What will happen if they start to become unable to make a successful handheld as well? Because that time IS coming, the trends are incredibly clear.

IOS Android

Est - a few years from now

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

There's been several op-eds in the last few weeks from some big websites all singing the Wii U's praises and telling consumers it is the best choice this Xmas for its games.

I think and I hope that will give the system a small sales boost in these last few weeks before Xmas and help it start gaining some traction, sales-wise, going into the new year.

The Wii U is never going to be a success bar a $100 price cut. But I just hope it and its games sell enough so that it doesn't have a catastrophic effect on the fortunes of Nintendo.

 

[Jinfash]

If Wii U had sold only 150k in November we'd already have heard of mass sudoku inside Nintendo.

Is this a meme? Either way, I got a kick out of it— fits their games' E rating pretty well.

 

[BlackJace]

A bunch of "insiders" on GAF all call each other credible. Then one by one slowly get banned for repeatedly posting "insider" information that is false. "Insider information" that comes from random PMs from other "insiders", all of whom have meaninglessly called each other credible.

I ask again, if he has secret infoz why can't he just share them now, instead of waiting until NPD numbers come out then saying "I guess what I hinted at was right?"

Anyone can drop hints like "I hear Funky Barn is struggling" then when NPD comes out say "yep, I was right!"

Give me a reason to believe that any of these insiders aren't mailroom employees at best.

Harker's cool man. His post wasn't even a confirmation of the figure anyway.

 

[cyberheater]

peace vibes from the success of DS and Wii and the relative turn around of 3DS from complete failure to moderate success.

But although I am smart enough to know saying "Nintendo is doomed" is shortsighted considering history, I am also aware that we are about to enter a stage in this industry that is also without precedent - an era in which gaming dedicated handhelds are fast becoming irrelevant (ask Y2Kev for an explanation on why 3DS is not doing near as impressive as some think), and Nintendo cannot release a relevant bit of console hardware either.

What will happen if they start to become unable to make a successful handheld as well? Because that time IS coming, the trends are incredibly clear.

Yes. I've been saying this for a while. I don't see a future for Ninendo unless they go third party. The dedicated handheld gaming market will evaporate and Nintendo are incapable of delivering a competing home console platform.

Worse of all. I genuinely believe folks are starting to be less interested in the key Nintendo IP's like Mario.

 

[PBY]

Wait. WiiU sold 50k in October?

Also, pachs WiiU record is pretty fucking good

 

[John Harker]

I don't know, 8 years, 0 bans; but the people are hungry, they say! feed them, they say! will you feed them with your fine wine? or just your fancy words?

well I say, let them go hungry! no NPD for you!

awwww, i'm just messing. I get goaded all the time, nothing new here. move along folks.
I for one, am actually really excited about Tropical Freeze. Returns was awesome!

 

[BPoole]

That's it. The Wii U is dead. RIP in Piece

 

[Amir0x]

[/B]


IOS Android

Est - a few years from now

Yes, that is what some suggest they should be doing now. I actually do think it might devalue the brand, but I don't know what the alternative is.

It's a very tough situation in the future. I think a lot of people will have a tough time, but due to Nintendo's reliance on handhelds, I am especially worried about the strategy they will have. They have not shown themselves particularly adept since the Wii.

 

[Iacobellis]

I really don't know. The way Japanese companies operate is baffling. He would have been forced to resign a long time ago if it was a western company.

Sony is a Japanese company, yet Kutaragi was demoted shortly after the PS3 launch.

 

[Damaniel]

If Wii U had sold only 150k in November we'd already have heard of mass sudoku inside Nintendo.

Nintendo strikes me as more of a Picross kind of company...

 

[Freezie KO]

Despite the recent spat of good press, the line-up of Wii Fit+, downloadable Wii Sports remakes, and 3D Land Part II wasn't a strong holiday release schedule. But this is way worse than I was expecting.

What really sucks is that even if Nintendo changes course and starts innovating again with exciting software, they've already sunk the platform due to droughts, minigame overload, and redundant sequels.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Yes. I've been saying this for a while. I don't see a future for Ninendo unless they go third party. The dedicated handheld gaming market will evaporate and Nintendo are incapable of delivering a competing home console platform.

Worse of all. I genuinely believe folks are starting to be less interested in the key Nintendo IP's like Mario.

Sadly, its like a terrible car accident on the side of the road, everyone slows down to take a peek. This is how I see the predicament Nintendo is in. Its ugly, but I can't help but look.

 

[cyberheater]

Actually crazy thing is they didn't - if they haven't used low power parts they could have gotten system that would at least run x360/ps3 at better quality.

Even if you are right. It was a super stupid design decision. Basically gimp your system to have a smaller box. Stupid.

 

[papercan55]

I understand how you feel, but every console will have a game we don't like, I'm not saying the Wii should have failed because Metroid: Other M was fucking awful.

I agree that every console will have a game we don't like, but when that game so happens to be your big launch title and it's mario, the lack of effort was astounding.
Did nobody at nintendo even look at the advertising showing mario u on a tv, to most people it looked almost identical to the wii version, not to mention it was shown with people using wii remotes to play it.

The wii u deserves to fail because in my eyes Nintendo thought that a half assed mario effort would see the money roll in, they had nearly two years to prepare for the wii u launch and that was the best they could do? really?
You can half ass it like with all the 'new' mario games after your console is successful, not before. And i'm so glad that people didn't fall for it.

The worst thing about this whole system has been that one mario u video released showing 2 developers laughing together as they show a video of mario and luigi from 'new' super mario bros wii and then showing them from mario u, running on the same grass, the same models, the same hills only an increase in resolution.
It's as if they were laughing at how easy it was, and that they were convinced it would be another runaway success with such little development effort. And this is why despite being a huge nintendo fan i'm happy to see the console fail. It might only be one game, but to me mario u, signifies everything wrong with nintendo.

 

[Calamari41]

Yes, that is what some suggest they should be doing now. I actually do think it might devalue the brand, but I don't know what the alternative is.

It's a very tough situation in the future. I think a lot of people will have a tough time, but due to Nintendo's reliance on handhelds, I am especially worried about the strategy they will have. They have not shown themselves particularly adept since the Wii.

I see Nintendo making a deal with Apple or something before just entering the wilderness on their own as a third party or what have you. In a lot of ways, an Apple/Nintendo partnership is a match made in heaven for both companies.

 

[Crisium]

Nintendo, it's time.

I vote third party.

 

[Delio]

Pokemon iOS, with microtransactions out the ass.

I rather they kill pokemon outright before it comes to that.

 

[Margalis]

Are you really going to engage in this sort of semantic pedantry?

Fine. The numbers would need to be precisely ten times what he predicted to even come close to what the people hoping Mario would "save" the Wii U were hoping for. Even at four, five, or six times as much they would be poor sales numbers for Nintendo in November, and an extreme shortfall in light of the nine million sales prediction Iwata refused to relinquish at the recent Nintendo investor call.

So you believe that anything less than 1.5 million would be a failure? That's seems like an awfully high number.

You talk about people hoping that Mario would "save" the Wii U with 1.5 million in console sales. Which people? Can you name them? Or when you say "people" do you mean "people I invented"?

 

[Guevara]

So obviously the handheld market has shrunk dramatically this gen versus last, but most of that contraction was on the Sony side and in some ways Nintendo fucked up initially by releasing a $250 handheld. And while hardware and software sales remain somewhat weak for the 3DS, I guess I'm not totally convinced Nintendo's in trouble (yet). If they can come out with a killer, cheap (<$150) device I think they have time.

 

[Aquamarine]

Isn't pretending to be insider bannable offence on GAF ? So if John was faking it he would have been banned already ?

John Harker has posted legit numbers in the past.

For example:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=81627793&postcount=1255

...this is legit.

 

[Y2Kev]

I want them to drop the game pad at this point just so I can say I was right. This thing could sell double 150k and it would still be a catastrophobomb. You could see it from space.

It needed to move at least 1mm combined nov + December to even register on the EKG IMO and it's not going to do that.

 

[Caffeine]

November is when people do xmas shopping...

i feel like it got overshadowed this time by the ps4 and x1 launches.

Spoiler

I do my shoping the week before or the week of christmas.

 

[PBY]

I want them to drop the game pad at this point just so I can say I was right. This thing could sell double 150k and it would still be a catastrophobomb. You could see it from space.

It needed to move at least 1mm combined nov + December to even register on the EKG IMO and it's not going to do that.

Their flagship holiday game doesn't really use the pad. Why is it a thing.

 

[prag16]

Was there some sort of incident that damaged Harker's credibility that I wasn't aware of? He's been around for as long as I can remember, has a solid track record, and is vetted by other credible sources/leakers.

The way he conducts himself at times annoys some people. His delivery almost seems like trolling at times.

However no I'm not aware of anything that would put his credibility in question. He's vetted and legit as far as we know.

 

[Father_Brain]

Can't it be late January already? That Nintendo briefing is going to be absolutely fascinating.

 

[PhantomR]

peace vibes from the success of DS and Wii and the relative turn around of 3DS from complete failure to moderate success.

But although I am smart enough to know saying "Nintendo is doomed" is shortsighted considering history, I am also aware that we are about to enter a stage in this industry that is also without precedent - an era in which gaming dedicated handhelds are fast becoming irrelevant (ask Y2Kev for an explanation on why 3DS is not doing near as impressive as some think), and Nintendo cannot release a relevant bit of console hardware either.

What will happen if they start to become unable to make a successful handheld as well? Because that time IS coming, the trends are incredibly clear.



But I hope you understand it's a completely meaningless argument to have. That's like arguing "well if there was a nuclear war during the Gamecube era, the Wii U would be doing better right now!" Such hypotheticals merely fade into wishful thinking, because there is no way to prove whether the scenario would ever actually be true or not, and it simply avoids stating what is here at face value.

The face value of the night is "Wii U is performing demonstrably worse than GCN by every metric available." The why is the only thing really up for discussion, I feel

His constant hammering on about that is strictly based on comparison between 3DS and DS, which is silly considering the fact that the DS sold freaking 154 million copies. This year 3DS is performing very well, and has been the only platform that has YoY increase in sales. And that is in a very competitive segment with tablets and smartphones.


The mobile market has TREMENDOUSLY expanded, and Nintendo's dedicated handheld is experiencing year on year growth to keep pace despite other options available. That's a big success no matter how anyone tries to flip it otherwise.

 

[AniHawk]

Sony is a Japanese company, yet Kutaragi was demoted shortly after the PS3 launch.

kutaragi also had people above him. iwata's at the top with no one above him.

iwata's tried a very hands-on approach to the us market and that's weird to see. i really have no idea what the plans are for the wii u.

the 3ds on the other hand has been extremely well-supported. the 2ds seemed to be a reaction to poor 3ds sales (they say it took 18 months to make, which would put it in the middle of 2012), and so did bundles and special editions like fire emblem, zelda, and pokemon. it had great black friday deals and good advertising campaigns throughout the year. it's not doing numbers the ds did. it's not even doing numbers the psp did (before it started to disappear), but it's getting a lot of support, and sales are improving.

the lack of attention to the wii u is bizarre in comparison and seems grounds for any sort of random conspiracy theory.

 

[Mik317]

Man this thread is sad.

Nintendo isn't close to being third party (I think they still have another failed console before that) but damn

 

[ViewtifulJC]

the lack of attention to the wii u is bizarre in comparison and seems grounds for any sort of random conspiracy theory.

EmCee laid out several valid theories in another thread, I had wondered if you saw them

Anihawk if these numbers are even close to being right, what would you do about the Wii U

 

[Otakumegane]

Damn it, I just want something from Nintendo that won't get laughed at for liking it.

 

[Gartooth]

Nintendo's international presence will go before their handhelds. Unfortunately their worldwide branches are just puppets for NCL and it seems like international taste doesn't factor into their hardware development, rather the systems are designed around the shrinking Japanese market. I think Nintendo would keep making handhelds as long as they remain popular in Japan, and would sooner drop out of the console market but that is just my guess.

 

[Bob White]

Their flagship holiday game doesn't really use the pad. Why is it a thing.

Because its needed, thats why

 

[Freezie KO]

I agree that every console will have a game we don't like, but when that game so happens to be your big launch title and it's mario, the lack of effort was astounding.
Did nobody at nintendo even look at the advertising showing mario u on a tv, to most people it looked almost identical to the wii version, not to mention it was shown with people using wii remotes to play it.

The wii u deserves to fail because in my eyes Nintendo thought that a half assed mario effort would see the money roll in, they had nearly two years to prepare for the wii u launch and that was the best they could do? really?
You can half ass it like with all the 'new' mario games after your console is successful, not before. And i'm so glad that people didn't fall for it.

The worst thing about this whole system has been that one mario u video released showing 2 developers laughing together as they show a video of mario and luigi from 'new' super mario bros wii and then showing them from mario u, running on the same grass, the same models, the same hills only an increase in resolution.
It's as if they were laughing at how easy it was, and that they were convinced it would be another runaway success with such little development effort. And this is why despite being a huge nintendo fan i'm happy to see the console fail. It might only be one game, but to me mario u, signifies everything wrong with nintendo.

You forgot to mention that they also launched with Nintendo Land. With 6-year-old avatars sterilizing the images of 20 year old characters, playing minigames with endless tutorials, coupled with a failed interface used for local offline-only multiplayer, you could say that Nintendo Land also signifies everything wrong with Nintendo.

 

[opticalmace]

I don't know, 8 years, 0 bans; but the people are hungry, they say! feed them, they say! will you feed them with your fine wine? or just your fancy words?

well I say, let them go hungry! no NPD for you!

awwww, i'm just messing. I get goaded all the time, nothing new here. move along folks.
I for one, am actually really excited about Tropical Freeze. Returns was awesome!

So... what does this post mean? lol. Someone else will probably leak the numbers later in week, I would think.

 

[cyberheater]

Sadly, its like a terrible car accident on the side of the road, everyone slows down to take a peek. This is how I see the predicament Nintendo is in. Its ugly, but I can't help but look.

Yep. And as a company. They are too dumb to see it coming.

 

[RobFox64tm]

I see Nintendo making a deal with Apple or something before just entering the wilderness on their own as a third party or what have you. In a lot of ways, an Apple/Nintendo partnership is a match made in heaven for both companies.

I've been saying this for a while. Apple's ability to sell to the masses combined with Nintendo's IP would assure success for the company for a long time.

 

[Log4Girlz]

His constant hammering on about that is strictly based on comparison between 3DS and DS, which is silly considering the fact that the DS sold freaking 154 million copies. This year 3DS is performing very well, and has been the only platform that has YoY increase in sales. And that is in a very competitive segment with tablets and smartphones.


The mobile market has TREMENDOUSLY expanded, and Nintendo's dedicated handheld is experiencing year on year growth to keep pace despite other options available. That's a big success no matter how anyone tries to flip it otherwise.

So the 3DS never meeting projections and selling far less than the DS is not a concern?