Support NeoGAF

[Nakazato]

2021 I hope I want as much good content as possible before moving on

 

[Double Donut]

I don't know why so many people want the PS5/XB2 so soon. It still feels like the PS4/XBO are young imo.

 

[xDUMPWEEDx]

2020 sounds about right. 4K will be the mainstream industry standard by then as well.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I see a PS5/Xbox Next battle royale in 2020. You won't see a big move until chip technology takes another jump.

Chip technology is almost there. TSMC (I think) 7nm process goes into risk production this year, so possibly volume production next year, meaning a mature process ripe for console launches by 2019.

In theory, we could start hearing about PS5/XBTwo by mid-next year from dev leaks of prototype hardware/specs.

 

[John Caboose]

I believe in a second Pro/X type refresh within another 4 years instead of a new "real" generation within that time.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

2020 sounds about right. 4K will be the mainstream industry standard by then as well.

Lets hope that by 2019/20 we also have variable refresh rates (G-sync/freesync) in TVs as standard too.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

PS5 in 2020.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I believe in a second Pro/X type refresh within another 4 years instead of a new "real" generation within that time.

Highly unlikely... especially since the current mid-gen refreshes are promoted and marketed around 4k gaming.

What would they do for a PS4Pro2 or Xbox One X2?

8k gaming?

I'm pretty confident they'll be looking to get rid of these Jaguar CPUs and push gaming forwards with a full generational transition.

 

[D_Generate87]

With the pc-like architecture of the PS4/Xbox one, what if the next gen is essentially just another upgrade like pro/x? With the same architecture it would allow backwards compatibility with PS4/Xbox one, but perhaps they'd make it so that Pro/X consoles could play next gen games, but it'd be just like how it is now between standard consoles and pro/x. The pro/x would obviously not run the games as great.

I'd be down for this due to easy backwards compatibility, but I guess it might not be as exciting.

 

[duhmetree]

I see something similar happening with these iterative 4k consoles.

Sony makes use of the new technology first, in 2019. 7nm, zen2, navi, gddr6

Microsoft repeats the 'most powerful console ever' and one ups the ps5 the following year. Same tech but bumped up specs.

 

[ffvorax]

I say PS5 in 2020, later in 2021.

I don't think Pro changed much their plans.

 

[Herp Derpington]

Highly unlikely... especially since the current mid-gen refreshes are promoted and marketed around 4k gaming.

What would they do for a PS4Pro2 or Xbox One X2?

8k gaming?

I'm pretty confident they'll be looking to get rid of these Jaguar CPUs and push gaming forwards with a full generational transition.

It won't be a full generational transition though. That ship has sailed. The new systems will be more powerful versions of what came before now that the platforms have been standardized. They might be named different and the cpu could improve but the Pro and One X are new systems regardless of what they want you to believe. They're an evolution of tech within the time frame they came out in, same as the systems after them. The idea of having console generations is seemingly passing us by and I'm ok with that. There's no need honestly.

 

[Carn82]

Cerny has discussed the notion of an eight teraflop console required for native 4K gaming

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-could-sony-release-ps5-in-2018-in-theory

going by that quote, I would assume that Sony wants to push higher than that, and that PS5 will probably be an 10 to 12 teraflops machine.

If we look at AMDs roadmap (https://hothardware.com/news/amd-confirms-7nm-tape-out-2h-2017-navi-zen-2)

According to AMD's slides, if everything goes well Zen 2 and Navi products will hit the market towards the end of 2018 and carry the company through 2019, after which it will make the jump to Zen 3 and a new generation GPU that is yet to be named.
9

12 tflops Vega graphics cards will be out soon; shrinking down that performance to a console APU by 2019/2020 doesnt sound unfeasable to me.

 

[The Pet of the Month]

I see these systems more as platforms now, rather than hardware generations.

I feel that every application should stretch to be as compatible with the older hardware as possible, even having software running on the first Xbox One in 2023 for example, which I would consider the end of the system's lifespan.

 

[irrotational]

There are no more generations.

All consoles will have BC and phased FC over a limited period determined by developers and market forces.

MS are much more up for this than Sony but I think Sony will follow suit.

 

[Carn82]

With the pc-like architecture of the PS4/Xbox one, what if the next gen is essentially just another upgrade like pro/x? With the same architecture it would allow backwards compatibility with PS4/Xbox one, but perhaps they'd make it so that Pro/X consoles could play next gen games, but it'd be just like how it is now between standard consoles and pro/x. The pro/x would obviously not run the games as great.

I'd be down for this due to easy backwards compatibility, but I guess it might not be as exciting.

If they ditch the jaguar cores in the current gen and go with something Zen-based the performance increase will be really, really big. Don't forget, the Pro and Xbox One X have faster CPUs compared to the regular PS4/X1, but they are still (very) weak compared to regular desktop CPUs. The CPUs are pretty much the weakest link in the current gen consoles.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

With the pc-like architecture of the PS4/Xbox one, what if the next gen is essentially just another upgrade like pro/x? With the same architecture it would allow backwards compatibility with PS4/Xbox one, but perhaps they'd make it so that Pro/X consoles could play next gen games, but it'd be just like how it is now between standard consoles and pro/x. The pro/x would obviously not run the games as great.

I'd be down for this due to easy backwards compatibility, but I guess it might not be as exciting.

The problem with this approach is that while backwards compatibility and forwards compatibility is nice for a while, the original 1.3 and 1.8 TFLOP current gen consoles will be holding games back for the entire duration of the gen next-gen. Instead of just for a short while until the new-gen boxes develop a large enough market share.

Currently, it's frustrating enough knowing that PS4Pro and XbOX will never get the chance to stretch their legs on exclusive games that can really show what the hardware can do. Instead they're limited up-rendered versions of games designed for the former consoles.

I don't see why anyone would want that to continue going forwards.

I would want a PS5 and XB2 that allow games to leave PS4/Pro/XB1/S/X behind and target the full capability of those new consoles. Whilst at the same time, there's nothing stopping those same new boxes enabling backwards compatibility with old-gen games via emulation (x86-based CPUs and GCN-based GPUs means this is a more realistic possibility).

 

[Wonko_C]

I think so personally.

It's so strange that being said, it's like the generation began last year but we are at 4 years already !

It began last year to me literally, as I was able to finally afford my PS4 on June 2016. Lots of people just wait until the price of the consoles drop considerably to buy them. I see myself totally skipping Pro and X, then buying the PS5/XBO2 2-3 years after their release.

 

[Hilarion]

There are, what, 3-4 million PS4 Pros out of 60 million PS4s? PS4 Pro and XB1X are meant to keep Neogaf types happy for the rest of the gen.

I think holiday 2019 is reasonable for the PS5, with the XBox 4K the following year.

 

[Lng0004]

Until we start seeing Xbox One X exclusives because the PS4/Pro can't handle them, I don't think Sony will be forced to show their hands. I don't see that happening either unless MS want to piss people off.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

It won't be a full generational transition though. That ship has sailed. The new systems will be more powerful versions of what came before now that the platforms have been standardized. They might be named different and the cpu could improve but the Pro and One X are new systems regardless of what they want you to believe. They're an evolution of tech within the time frame they came out in, same as the systems after them. The idea of having console generations is seemingly passing us by and I'm ok with that. There's no need honestly.

Literally everything Sony and MS have been saying about PS4Pro and XB1X contradict this.

Seems you've either not been paying attention or you're just burying your head in the sand and holding onto what you want to believe.

Console generations are still a thing and will continue to be. Any talk about blurring the lines of console generations is about backwards compatibility.

I think you're going to get a shock when PS5 and the NextBox get announced and you realise you can't play PS5 gen games on your PS4.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Until we start seeing Xbox One X exclusives because the PS4/Pro can't handle them, I don't think Sony will be forced to show their hands. I don't see that happening either unless MS want to piss people off.

You mean the publishers want to piss players off?

Since it's not in MS's control.

 

[Philippo]

No, PS5 in Fall 2020 at the very latest to capitalize on MS launching the XB1X so late, and get a year long headstart for next gen.

But i fear at the next change the number of cross-gen games will be much bigger, so yeah in a sense i guess it will last longer.

 

[Windu]

Hopefully the ps4 and xbox one is the min spec for a long time to come.

 

[daveo42]

Upgrades ever 4-5 years. So the next Playstation will be out in 2020, similar with the next Xbox. Game generations might be a thing in 2020 but will more than likely be blurred and continue to blur further going forward.

 

[Forearm Star]

I hope so.

I hope by next gen 1080/60 is standard as well as crossplay for everyone (Not to drag that into this thread)

Until then let's keep chipping away until devs flesh everything out.

 

[Dr. Black Jack]

I think/hope that they'll keep releasing upgraded consoles and gradually phase the older models out of new release compatibility while keeping BC for all the older stuff. Hard stop generational switches are a bitter pill to swallow in the current consumer tech environment.

Nintendo can stay crazy though, keep that weirdass wonderful hardware flowing.

 

[Fbh]

I don't think Xb1x or the Pro are going to change anything.

Games are still going to be designed for the regular Ps4 and XB1 and the Slim/S version of those consoles are going to keep being the best selling ones.
One the game is done devs will just look at how much power they have left on the the Xb1X and Pro and will use that to add upgrades like higher resolution, smoother framerates and better anisotropic filtering.

I think new consoles will launch in 2020 or late 2019

 

[Salty Rice]

This is the Last gen.

Video game consoles are dead they said.

Video game generations are dead they said.


Nah this isnt the last gen and you know.

 

[Renekton]

I remember us GAF has a TERRIBLE track record with predictions, worse than Pachter.

 

[Flo_Evans]

It seems to me they are looking at yearly phone refreshes and wanting to get in on that action. I think we see PS4.3 and Xboxyz in a few years.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sony and MS both have done one hardware refresh in four years.

That's not yearly.

I remember us GAF has a TERRIBLE track record with predictions, worse than Pachter.

Pachter said the 360/PS3/Wii gen wast he last gen back in 2009.

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation

"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either.

"[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he said. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it." Instead, Pachter envisions a standard delivery form - maybe something like the recently announced OnLive cloud-based system that delivers on-demand gaming by crunching data on remote servers and displaying video over the intertubes to your PC or TV.

Doesn't get much worse than that.

 

[NimbusD]

Absolutely. Do you expect there to be a significant jump in just 2 years to constitute a new Gen at the price that xb1x is launching at? The best I can see is like maybe people getting on the hybrid train if switch continues to be gangbusters.

 

[Anion]

I don't think sony will be cool with Microsoft having a more powerful console on the market so I'm expecting them to have a new console ready in the next few years. It will be interesting to see if they close the door on this gen or if they have some sort of backwards compatibility built in.

Though I agree, I don't think Sony looks at power that much anymore. It's the money stream. As long as the PS4/Pro is making money, they won't release the next one

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Sony probably has two road maps right now


Depends on sales and how Scorpio goes along imo

They want to be first though and ms may want to be first too so it depends imo

I feel ms doesn't want to do gems but continuous upgrades.

Sony needs a super cheap and super super slim ps4.


I imagine Sony will do a Sony ps4 switch vita combo soon.

 

[LordOcidax]

Gens are death.

 

[megashock5]

I think so personally.

It's so strange that being said, it's like the generation began last year but we are at 4 years already !

Yeah, I still feel like it's early into PS4's life. Not looking to get new hardware anytime soon after buying Switch in March. I'm good for a while.

 

[Apt101]

None of my family or close friends owns a 4k set yet. I may jump in with a C7, but I am waiting on CES to see what improvements are made for next years models. 4k is not mainstream yet, not even close.

Yea that's why I qualified my post with the "personal anecdote" qualifier. I didn't expect my experience to be the norm. Region and circle of friends economic standing and all that.

Still man, 20% seems so low. It's not like 4K TV's are expensive. I got my 55" LED, 4K, smart TV with wifi and all the popular apps built-in on sale for like $700. Did I just get really lucky? Did all my friends and coworkers get really lucky?

If I had to guess you're right. And people aren't buying TV's because people value and use them less. Also I'm old.

 

[Inuhanyou]

PS5 will launch in fall 2019

 

[Herp Derpington]

Literally everything Sony and MS have been saying about PS4Pro and XB1X contradict this.

Seems you've either not been paying attention or you're just burying your head in the sand and holding onto what you want to believe.

Console generations are still a thing and will continue to be. Any talk about blurring the lines of console generations is about backwards compatibility.

I think you're going to get a shock when PS5 and the NextBox get announced and you realise you can't play PS5 gen games on your PS4.

MS has made clear a few times they don't necessarily think the standard generational model should continue. Sony doesn't believe this but they'll come around as they see the market change. We'll just agree to disagree on this point.

 

[Okami Haundo]

It sure seems like Microsoft wants to ditch the traditional concept of "generations" and just do iterative hardware going forward. Obviously they'll be a point at which the lowest-performing SKU has to lose support, but I think it should last longer than a traditional console "generation would.

Not really sure how Sony would like to handle things, though it is worth noting that the PS3/Xbox 360 gen was much longer than usual. If anything, "current" gen with PS4 will look shorter by comparison. Though a side-effect of Microsoft's approach could be that vanilla PS4 sees support for longer after PS5 releases.

 

[tsab]

You are covered. You'd still get cross-gen titles at least until 2021 even if the next gen starts on 2019

 

[Megatron]

I don't think sony will be cool with Microsoft having a more powerful console on the market so I'm expecting them to have a new console ready in the next few years. It will be interesting to see if they close the door on this gen or if they have some sort of backwards compatibility built in.

Eh, at this point, Microsoft's more powerfull option only has a niche console that costs $500. When the next gen starts there is no guarantee that they will be more powerful. It would be much worse to go the whole gen as the weaker system.

 

[tareqsalah1]

Sony and microsoft didnt spend money and time investing in pro and x to drop new consoles in the next 2 years.

This will be another 8 to 10 gen.

We havnt even gotten sequals to the big games droping this gen.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

whatever time they need for amd to not fuck up and release something good, specially CPU wise that can be on a console

that been said, whether that's 2019 or 2020 (which i prefer) im in

my guess how is gonna happen

feb announcement > e3 reveal > nov release just like they did with the ps4 (this time they dont have any excuse for BC at the very least with PS4 games)

 

[rokkerkory]

Hopefully no more generations at least with xbox, but iterations based on real inflection points. Next iteration shud improve cpu.

I want my games to always carry fwd too.

 

[facetheslayer92]

I can see November 2020. 7 years on the dot. Even the PlayStation 2 had a nearly 7 year life cycle before the PS3 launched in Japan. Death Stranding and maybe Horizon 2 if it's ready will be 100% cross gen, but first on PS4.

 

[Okami Haundo]

Hopefully no more generations at least with xbox, but iterations based on real inflection points. Next iteration shud improve cpu.

I want my games to always carry fwd too.

Agreed! Not having to cut ties with my old library on console would be the best benefit of that approach.

 

[Inuhanyou]

MS has made clear a few times they don't necessarily think the standard generational model should continue. Sony doesn't believe this but they'll come around as they see the market change. We'll just agree to disagree on this point.

Having permanent crossgen esque games doesn't appeal to me in MS's plan, Sony should win this side of the argument specifically. Its just a matter of when the cutoff period for previous hardware for the lowest common denominator changes

 

[Playsage]

I hope so.

I hope by next gen 1080/60 is standard as well as crossplay for everyone (Not to drag that into this thread)

Until then let's keep chipping away until devs flesh everything out.

I wouldn't mind if they keep on pushing checkerboard rendering for next gen even if native 4K will be easier to achieve

Also, it would be cool that with the Pro/X1 precedent, they start to give people perfomance/graphic options form the very start