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[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

MS has made clear a few times they don't necessarily think the standard generational model should continue. Sony doesn't believe this but they'll come around as they see the market change. We'll just agree to disagree on this point.

MS not allowing devs to make XB1X exclusive games would disagree with you. PR mouthpieces can say alot of things, but their moves in the market speak much louder.

E.g. if we believe everything that Spencer says then MS should have a bigger first party developer portfolio than Sony by now... look how that worked out.

 

[Markoman]

Does anyone remember that the PS2 reached 150m sales because it was able to coexist with Xbox 360 and later PS3.

If we can trust wikipedia with their PS2 sales numbers, the PS2 reached 100m after 5,5 years on the market (march 2000-Nov 2005). So PS4 is on its way reaching the same waypoint. 50m PS2 units were sold from 2005-2010.

What I'm trying to say here: For Sony the optimal strategy would be having 2 healthy SKUs at the end of this decade - a super-cheap PS4 and the Premium model PS5.

 

[Magwik]

I expect it to be shorter. 2019 is when we will probably get new hardware. These systems will mainly exist to prevent their customers from moving over to PC.

 

[ElfArmy177]

i don't think technology will be ready until at least 2020 and even then we won't be hitting 8k.

There is absolutely no reason for 8k. None at all. At 4k I see absolutely no pixel crawl or aliasing. What a waste of power

 

[Darkstorne]

Sony and microsoft didnt spend money and time investing in pro and x to drop new consoles in the next 2 years.

Yep. My money is on 2020, and I'm also hoping 4k is where we stick for the rest of the next generation (how big would your TV need to be for you to notice 8k image quality anyway?)

That way a PS5 Pro can place the emphasis on 60fps, rather than a big resolution bump.

 

[Akoi]

Personally I think they need to stop with this native 4K hype and give us 60fps.

The ps4 pro could last a few more years. I think the Xbox one x will last a long while.

 

[Bungie]

Hoping for at least 2020 & the Xbox One X to be forward compatible.

 

[Klocker]

This is the Last gen.

.

Stop thinking in generations and start thinking iterations

 

[meerak]

Longer than what?

It's gonna be an 8-9 years cycle anyways, already guaranteed at this point. Kinda of insane how many people don't realize that's so obvious. It would take titanic shifts to move the needle on that.

 

[mcrommert]

Yeap, I don't think Sony will want to wait longer. Pro will be 3 years out by Holidays 2019, backwards compatibility will be built-in due to x86 and AMD APU, publishers and Devs can still target PS4, Pro and PS5 easily enough due to similar architectures and Sony can beat MS by a year to market.

Custom AMD APU with Zen and whatever AMD custom graphics available, GDDR6 plus 7nm will work quite well and still should allow reasonable pricing and significant leap from Xbone X/PS4 Pro.

People keep saying "backwards compatibility is built in because x86"

Yeah that's not real...in order to have flaw free bc on the ps pro they had to clock it down to perfect copy of the ps4...their boost mode doesn't support all games well

Why if they can't get it right for an iterative console they can get it right for a whole new gen?

 

[Duxxy3]

Just my own guesses...

Things continue as planned for the next couple years.

Early 2019 Sony announces the PS5. Releases in November 2019. More powerful than the XB1X, but not grossly. Ryzen CPU, 16GB ram, 8ishTFLOPS. $399.

Microsoft doesn't respond at all. But publishers start announcing games for only PS5 and XB1X. By 2020 half of the new games won't work on PS4/XB1. By 2021 over 80% of games are PS5/XB1X. Microsoft announces the follow up to XB1X and we're in a similar situation situation to what we're in now - with XB1X games playing better on the XB1X follow up.

Unless Xbox makes a huge comeback, I don't think Sony will do another mid generation upgrade.

 

[jonscrambler]

new consoles by 2019 please

 

[Space_nut]

Yup by 2021 just watch

 

[oldergamer]

Generations no longer matter.

 

[ethomaz]

No.

PS5 2019/2020.

 

[deriks]

I hope so. I mean, I'm a early adopter of PS4, but I felt that we have only a year or so of gaming.

Battlefront II is coming out, for God's sake. It was yesterday that the first one was released.

 

[Reckless Onion]

Probably 2020 seeing how much releases next year devs will have nothing ready 2019.

 

[Quonny]

PS5/XB2XXL 2020

 

[darkinstinct]

Well, console generations usually last around 5 years or so. Last generation was an exception with ~7 years. Seeing as we're already in year 4 we could see the 'next gen' consoles as early as 2019. With how fast technology is growing right now, I could totally see a PS4/Xbox Whatever in 2020. However; games already look incredible on current gen consoles and I can see them wanting to extend this generation to keep development costs lower. And with games as TLoU 2 and Death Stranding which both probably won't hit stores before 2020, I can totally see Sony (and Microsoft) dragging this generation out until at least 2021 or 2022.

edit: Or, as other have implied, this is the last generation. Microsoft is already bundling all their console generations together with the Xbox One's BC, so I could totally see Sony and MS releasing an upgraded system every 2-3 years to keep up with the technology.

At some point they have to let go the old consoles. They may call it the end of generations but that's not how it works. Personally I fear this gen will be the longest yet. I can see it lasting up to ten years. The 4K consoles are there to have options for players that want more power than that. There would be no point in PS4 Pro or XOX if the next gen console came in 2019. Or 2020. Microsoft calls it a mid-gen update, don't they? Four years after the original launch, that makes eight years minimum. If they truly wanted to attack Sony they would go nextgen in 2018/19. But with which games? PS4 will still be supported and at that time 250 cheaper. Let's say Microsoft realises they have to get exclusive launch titles, it takes three to four years to get those done.

They can't turn this gen around and they can't start next gen early now that they have XOX. That said, I believe the year they go next gen they will have a Forza Horizon 6 and Halo 7 at launch. 2022.

 

[Shalashaska161]

I don't expect anything til 2020 at the absolute earliest. Both XB1X and PS4P are good enough to keep the consoles current with new 4k TVs. And until AMD has some APUs with Ryzen and a decent graphical leap above the current mid-gen boxes there really isn't much point in releasing a new console gen.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I was thinking 2019 for a long time but given how long games take to make and how multiple major devs like Santa Monica and Rockstar have still yet to release an original game, I'm thinking more 2020 at least.

 

[Smokey]

I don't mind this gen being longer with the iterative hardware tbh

 

[Mr. Nice_Guy]

I hope it does. With the time it takes for games to come out, I feel like I haven't gotten as much as I have out of previous console cycles yet. If they wait until 2020/21 to release the next consoles then I feel like that would be more than enough time. Also I'll echo wanting to really be wowed by the next generation.

 

[RootCause]

Late 2019 seems like a reasonable release time. But the ps4 is selling so well, that makes me think they will wait till 2020.

 

[ShadowFox08]

I think so, and I think it should because moore laws is decling and its going to be incredibly expensive to get a console that is a generational leap of the pro/scorpio in a mere 3 years. Maybe we'll get something that's 4x as powerful in 3 years at 500-600 dollars, if scorpio is anything to look at. But i'd personally hold out as long as they can. 2020-2022 would be fine.

 

[mas8705]

Honestly if we are getting "Console upgrades" of current existing systems, I hope that the generation does last longer. Hell knows that when we get into the next generation of gaming devices, they are going to have to do things that would put the Xbox One X to shame (or close to it) and I feel like it will take some time before we get to that point (and honestly, I want to actually enjoy the generation like we did with the last generation).

 

[Bioshocker]

I hope we won't see PS5 until 2020. I am in no rush to get new hardware, both XB1 and PS4 (I have the standard versions) are fine. I want to spend all my money on games now and the coming two, three years. The Last of Us Part II will likely land in 2019. Phil Spencer said that they have unannounced games to show in the future, meaning they'll launch in 2019 or so.

Keep it cool.

 

[maximum360]

This is the obvious conclusion...last gen was 8 years...this gen will be the same or longer

There is no other conclusion



People keep saying this and i don't understand. What lesson did they learn? That they can make profit continuously without having to more often spend millions on r&d for new consoles? That devs want them to wait longer between generations because it takes longer now to get their engines and tool chains up to scratch and since it takes longer they want to be able to spend longer in that sweet spot?

Seriously what did they learn

I think what MS and Sony are doing right now is the right thing for them and the industry. It's the natural evolution. As games get more complex and more expensive to produce devs won't have to worry so much about developing for a different system entirely and can just enhance games to meet the needs of those with the vanilla systems or enhanced ones. I was actually surprised at the launch of the Pro last year. I though they would wait for 4 years to extend the generation for at least 8 years. I think Microsoft is on the right path. I'm hoping Sony doesn't do anything earlier than 2019 for the next gen [and actually 2020 would be fine for me since I've got the Pro and plan to get the 1X this year].

 

[Jacknapes]

I don't think we've even hit the potential of the Xbox One/PS4 as of yet. Earliest i can see a PS5/Xbox 2 (or whatever it's called) being released is 2020.

 

[pswii60]

I think so personally.

It's so strange that being said, it's like the generation began last year but we are at 4 years already !

The generation took a while to get going, the first 18 months was mostly cross-gen games. But now it's fucking brilliant and I'm no rush for another generation. PS4 is on absolute fire this year and it shows no signs of stopping.

I don't think I've been this happy since PS2. The backlog I've got is absolutely insane. It's the best backlog ever.

 

[Bl@de]

I hope it's sooner than later. Time to finally leave Jaguar behind. But I think 2019 is the earliest.

 

[dragonyeuw]

I would assume the reason for the mid-gen refresh was specifically to extend the generation, so that the hardware isn't completely spent by the time the console makers are actually ready to go 'next-gen'. Development cycles are longer now, R&D is probably higher than ever, so all the major stakeholders likely want to extract as much out of a given generation as they possibly can. The vanilla Ps4 and Xb1 will be creaking along by 2019, hence why the 'Pro' and 'X' models have been created. Microsoft in particular seems interested in getting rid of 'generations' all together and instead creating an eco-system that supports games as far back as the OG xbox, evidenced by their announcement at E3 a few days ago.

 

[Creaking]

Probably. Hopefully the tech can evolve a bit.

 

[geordiemp]

no, PS5 in 2019

believe

Hopefully 2019, I have 2 ps4 pro and cant wait for a Ryzen class console, dont care if its 4. 6, 8 or 12 TF, I just want 60 FPS gaming and nice LODs and no pop in.

Generation last longer ?

hell NO, the days of jaguar must come to an end as soon as possible.

,,

 

[Curufinwe]

Having permanent crossgen esque games doesn't appeal to me in MS's plan, Sony should win this side of the argument specifically. Its just a matter of when the cutoff period for previous hardware for the lowest common denominator changes

Yup. People in the 2020s aren't going to want their new games held back by having to also run on consoles from 2013.

 

[Vinc]

I was MORE than ready for a new gen back in 2011.

I'm nowhere close to ready for a new gen at this time.

I don't think the need for a new gen settles in after a set amount of time, you just have to look at the industry's momentum. Right now, I'm beyond satisfied with everything I get for my PS4 Pro. There's so many great games coming at a consistent pace, and so many great things coming. This gen is hitting its stride this year, and I think we have a good 3-4 years left before things even begin getting stale.

 

[Venom.]

I hope so. I want proper next gen to blow my mind. Give it time to cook. 2021 the earliest please.

In 2021 we should have 4K 60fps and it will look really good - but I don't think that will be mindblowing.

 

[Wiped89]

The next gen has begun with Switch.

Over in the PS v Xbox world, though, the 'next gen' will be triggered by whomever is most desperate to reset things (cough Microsoft).

MS felt a benefit from launching Xbox 360 a full year before PS3, and if MS starts making noises and rumours begin circling of a new Xbox gen, it could force Sony's hand earlier than they planned, too.

If Xbox One X doesn't take off, there is nothing left for them to do this gen, and all their key franchises have been played out on Xbox One. I expect they'll make a new console based on a souped up Xbox One X and launch Xbox Two (or whatever it will be called) about 12-18 months later, so late 2018, early 2019.

 

[Curufinwe]

I was MORE than ready for a new gen back in 2011.

I'm nowhere close to ready for a new gen at this time..

The 360 turned six in 2011.

Xbone and PS4 turn four this year.

 

[chrisPjelly]

Isn't anybody worried that these half step consoles might drag down the impact of next generation consoles? Sure, the CPU will end up being miles better, but how much better can you get when it comes to RAM and graphic cards?

 

[RootCause]

Just my own guesses...

Things continue as planned for the next couple years.

Early 2019 Sony announces the PS5. Releases in November 2019. More powerful than the XB1X, but not grossly. Ryzen CPU, 16GB ram, 8ishTFLOPS. $399.

Microsoft doesn't respond at all. But publishers start announcing games for only PS5 and XB1X. By 2020 half of the new games won't work on PS4/XB1. By 2021 over 80% of games are PS5/XB1X. Microsoft announces the follow up to XB1X and we're in a similar situation situation to what we're in now - with XB1X games playing better on the XB1X follow up.

Unless Xbox makes a huge comeback, I don't think Sony will do another mid generation upgrade.

That's a big contradiction. Especially in a world where people are saying the X1X is a next gem system, and considerably stronger than the Pro.

 

[Iced Arcade]

without a doubt. I'd say it's a 10 year cycle

 

[RootCause]

without a doubt. I'd say it's a 10 year cycle

No new systems till 2023 sounds insane.

 

[Interficium]

I think you're going to get a shock when PS5 and the NextBox get announced and you realise you can't play PS5 gen games on your PS4.

And I think you're going to get a shock when PS5 gets announced and you can't play PS5 gen games on your PS4..... but you can on PS4 Pro.

Game development at the AAA level is now too expensive to absorb the hard install base resets every 5-7 years.

 

[The Artisan]

I actually hope so.

same. I loved the fact that last gen was so long, made me feel like I got even more investment/enjoyment out of my Ps3 than the gen before it. I hope all gens are at least 7 years long from here on out.

 

[Iced Arcade]

No new systems till 2023 sounds insane.

we just got 2 console refreshes so it's not really that hard to see imo. god know's we might see another.

 

[Crooked16th]

I say we're five or six years out from a new gen at least i hope so. This gen has felt like its lagging behind previous ones by a few years i mean we only have a hand full of new Ips.

 

[Crayon]

Not a polular opinion but I really think the main reason for the pro is that it was time to drop ps4 to 299 but they were still selling well at 399. So why not both?

This is not all that different from a revision with a larger HDD for a bunch more money. The ante has been upped as the games will actually run different on this kind of revision but at the end of the day I don't think it's an altogether different strategy and won't necessarily effect the length of the generation on it's own.

Microsoft's strategy with the x1x seems to be similar with a twist. They are emphasizing the importance of the refresh while Sony is de-emphasizing it in favor of the base model.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

No. Sony thought it was necessary to release new hardware 3 years after PS4 release. Why would they suddenly decide to wait longer? PS5 will be out in 2019, maybe 2020 at the latest.

 

[bitbydeath]

Sony said Pro was the halfway point, so PS5 will be either 2019 or 2020 at the latest.