• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Wkd BO 07•21-23•17 - Slam Dunk' for Nolan, Apes escape, not rough Girl's Trip, Luc

K

Krev

Unconfirmed Member
SCULLIBUNDO said:
Did Avatar really cost $237m? Almost certainly not. There were a lot of other inside reports that said the film actually cost $300m when all was said and done. Which is fucking expensive for 2009, but it was never the most expensive movie ever made. Spider-man 3 and Pirates 3 alone cost more. You start accounting for marketing budgets and you'll see lots of budgets look mindboggling.

Busty' reasoning of 'Do you really think Cameron has some secret talent for milking more out of a vfx budget than 90% of other directors' to claim otherwise is silly, because yes, Cameron's background has always been in VFX and he's done it time and time again throughout his career. You may as well start questioning Blomkamp's budgets.

Cameron has made the most expensive movie of all time 3 times, but Avatar wasn't one of them.
Click to expand...
I do believe that Cameron pushes people harder, to accomplish more than they might have otherwise, but that only goes so far. You still need to pay CG artists for years of work. Photorealism is not easy to achieve.
I believe the logic stands up that if it really cost between $237 and $300 million, we'd have seen another studio at least attempt a photorealistic CG spectacular on that level in the near decade since Avatar became the highest grossing film ever.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Avatar cost a lot of fucking money.

So did Titanic.

I don't think we're ever gonna get a solid number on what they actually cost, so we might as well just roll with whatever's been reported.

The numbers they ended up pulling anyway made their budgets more or less irrelevant.
 
L

lightskintwin

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
Avatar cost a lot of fucking money.

So did Titanic.

I don't think we're ever gonna get a solid number on what they actually cost, so we might as well just roll with whatever's been reported.

The numbers they ended up pulling anyway made their budgets more or less irrelevant.
Click to expand...

Gotdamn...

Exactly the way I look at it.
 
S

Sweeney Tom

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
GMMRvqA.gif
Click to expand...

I don't care how much people watch War, that trilogy is one of the greatest of all time. And a significant part of it was because of his performances
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
Avatar cost a lot of fucking money.

So did Titanic.

I don't think we're ever gonna get a solid number on what they actually cost, so we might as well just roll with whatever's been reported.

The numbers they ended up pulling anyway made their budgets more or less irrelevant.
Click to expand...

And, unlike many other giant budget films, you can see where every damn cent with with the Cameron films.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
Krev said:
I do believe that Cameron pushes people harder, to accomplish more than they might have otherwise, but that only goes so far. You still need to pay CG artists for years of work. Photorealism is not easy to achieve.
I believe the logic stands up that if it really cost between $237 and $300 million, we'd have seen another studio at least attempt a photorealistic CG spectacular on that level in the near decade since Avatar became the highest grossing film ever.
Click to expand...
Yes, but a lot of people are also forgetting how much time and effort went into developing the pipeline for Avatar's VFX - which in helped to greatly reduce the budget.

There's a reason why Cameron has had his team focusing on the VFX pipeline since 2010 and why more than an hour's worth of roughly rendered - but completely choreographed footage exists for the first film where it wouldn't have existed otherwise with any other effects-heavy film.

I can't wait to see the fidelity Cameron has been able to get the realtime simulcam footage up to in the interim since. I remember him saying it ought to be around 70-80% there (as in to finished render) by the time they start shooting.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
So I've been keeping tabs over YouTube / Reaction vid view counts on YouTube the past few days and one thing sticks out to me. Thor Ragnarok domination.

This thing is gonna blow the fuck up isn't it? Those trailer have phenomenal

Its beating Justice League in view counts in every metric. Thats.......crazy
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
I don't think trailer views (especially since their counting has been utterly gamed by social media autoplays) have correlated to box-office dollars in any significant way since it became a marketing bullet-point in the last 3 or 4 years.
 
B

broncobuster

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
I don't think trailer views (especially since their counting has been utterly gamed by social media autoplays) have correlated to box-office dollars in any significant way since it became a marketing bullet-point in the last 3 or 4 years.
Click to expand...

In the first 24 hour ranking, apparently It is the leader by nearly 60 Million views.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
I don't think trailer views (especially since their counting has been utterly gamed by social media autoplays) have correlated to box-office dollars in any significant way since it became a marketing bullet-point in the last 3 or 4 years.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily true. Suicide Squad was a prime example of a film that blew up on social media and had a strong correlation with box office performance.

Thor Ragnarok view counts are abnormally large.

And I'm not just talking main channel views. I'm talking "reaction" videos which are the kinds of things people have to actively seek out. Its utterly dominating.

I think we need to be prepared for a Universe where Thor is a bigger domestic box office than Spidey. I actually think that has a strong, strong chance of happening here.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
I'm not saying Thor won't be big. I've been on that train for awhile (and it was, after Logan, my most anticipated Superhero flick of the year). I'm just saying I don't think trailer counts are any real indicator, and haven't ever really been.

they're often closer to traps for confirmation bias.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
In my experience, they're one of the best indications of a huge breakout when interest in trailers remain consistent up to release. An example of where that didn't happen is The Mummy: 38 million views for the first trailer, 13 million for the second, and 5 million for the final trailer. At the moment it looks like Thor 3's second trailer will at least match the first.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
I'm not saying Thor won't be big. I've been on that train for awhile (and it was, after Logan, my most anticipated Superhero flick of the year). I'm just saying I don't think trailer counts are any real indicator, and haven't ever really been.

they're often closer to traps for confirmation bias.
Click to expand...

It really depends and my Suicide Squad point is very valid.

A film that showed EXTREMELY strong social media buzz prior to launch, which people somewhat wrote off once reviews hit, and It just said "Fuck that" and smashed through.

I think what we are seeing with Thor, is a younger demo being represented in view counts, similarly to what we saw with Skwad.

Its going to be very big domestically
 
J

Jon Carter

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I'm with you on John Carter, which was unfairly maligned. But boy, the script in Valerian was awful. I hated the titular character from the get-go, who was written and played as an utter douchebag, which only made how his co-star was forced to swoon for him the entire film that much more unbearable. I also didn't appreciate how the middle act was devoted to Valerian rescuing her because she touched teh pretty butterfly and then got stuffed into a sexy dress and had to sit back and watch while getting rescued. It actually made me pretty angry. Shockingly out of touch script.

(I watched this with my high-school aged daughter and that did not go over well.)

Or the part at the end where Valerian punches the Commander in the face, knocking him out cold, and then tells Laureline, who is trying to do the right thing, that he can't do the right thing because he's a "soldier who follows orders" to manufacture a false crisis. Like punching your Commander in the face 2 minutes earlier is following orders.
Click to expand...

About the Commander:
Pretty sure he was done as a Commander after admitting to treason and fucking genocide. You act like Valerian killed him. Nobody will reprimand Valerian for punching a traitor/war criminal. It's completely different from making the decision as a simple soldier to hand over an incredibly-valuable asset you were tasked to retrieve by your superiors to whomever you choose. If they hadn't escaped, Valerian and Laureline would be in a shitload of trouble. They didn't have the authority to decide what to do with it. It's completely understandable as a soldier that you wouldn't mind doing something that nobody would reprimand you for but would be hesitant to do something that would end your military career and likely land you in prison or whatever the punishment on 28th century Alpha is for such a serious offense.

As for the sexism,
I realize sexism is very insidious, so I understand your interpretation, but I think that's an overly cynical view that you have there. I'm a man, so maybe what I think on the topic doesn't hold much weight, but, for what it's worth, neither my wife nor my (female) coworker thought the movie was sexist. Valerian might have saved Laureline - twice if you count when they were trapped in that weird sticky body bag thingy earlier on - but Laureline also saved Valerian's life twice. I don't see why it matters that she was made to wear a fancy (not sexy) dress and didn't fight in this particular sequence, especially since we saw her fight elsewhere in the movie. Laureline is depicted as a very strong woman throughout the entire film. Valerian is the only one with the sexist view that he should be the one to fight and protect her, and learning not to be a sexist douche is basically his entire arc.

I don't see how the script is out of touch, and Luc Besson's career-long track record with strong female leads puts most directors to shame. Laureline is no different, even if she dared touch a butterfly, was forced to wear a dress in one scene, and was saved by Valerian the same number of times she saved him. Besides, I don't see how you can call what she does in the film "swooning". She consistently calls him out on his sexism and only accepts being in some sort of relationship with him once he has shown that he respects her as a person and put his trust in her. Obviously, they've been partners for a very long time. He may act condescendingly, but there's still a lot that's good about him and she would know it better than anyone, and he has grown by the end of the film, so I don't see what's wrong with her loving him.

As far as the story goes, I personally found it rather touching and relevant to our world. Really, my only problem with the script is the shitty dialogue during the romance scenes, but that's 10 minutes of a 137 minute-long film. There are a couple of lines elsewhere that are a little on the nose too, but overall the script is masterful world building and impressively imaginative and wacky.
 
D

Davide

Member
Sweeney Tom said:
I'm not at all worried for that film. It'll do alright, although I'm not thinking a billion and nobody else should either
Click to expand...
You must mean domestic.

Valerian looked like a March Break movie.

Spider-Man was awesome but wasn't so much of an event movie like even Civil War, it looked kind of bland from the trailers and it followed GotG2 and Wonder Woman.

Planet of the Apes should have been in August, not sandwiched between Spider-Man and a Christopher Nolan film.

Dunkirk will probably have a pretty big drop as it's not as rewatchable as Inception or his other films.
 
G

GAMEPROFF

Banned
PhoncipleBone said:
First big screen adaptation of one of King's most popular books.
It isn't going to bomb. It also won't set the world on fire with a $100m opening either, but unless the reviews are shit, it is going to do well.
Click to expand...

Werent all these movies in the 80s and 90s not big? I always had the feeling that these were already considered big.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
Obliterator said:
Not necessarily true. Suicide Squad was a prime example of a film that blew up on social media and had a strong correlation with box office performance.

Thor Ragnarok view counts are abnormally large.

And I'm not just talking main channel views. I'm talking "reaction" videos which are the kinds of things people have to actively seek out. Its utterly dominating.

I think we need to be prepared for a Universe where Thor is a bigger domestic box office than Spidey. I actually think that has a strong, strong chance of happening here.
Click to expand...
Look at the Domestic box office of Thor to get an idea. Even the best grossing Thor movie couldn't beat Amazing Spider-Man, worldwide or domestically.
 
C

Cvie

Member
hodayathink said:
Those 80s/90s movies were TV movies, I believe. I wouldn't be surprised if King's most successful box office adaptation at this point is something like The Green Mile.

Edit: Yup. It is The Green Mile.
Click to expand...

green mile is his most sucessful but those 80s/90s movies weren't tv movies and they were very sucessful 30-60 mill for stuff like Carrie, Stand by Me, Pet Cemetery, The Shining etc is top 20 and better grossers for the year. For Horror and Drama stuff that is strong.
 
H

hodayathink

Member
Cvie said:
green mile is his most sucessful but those 80s/90s movies weren't tv movies and they were very sucessful 30-60 mill for stuff like Carrie, Stand by Me, Pet Cemetery, The Shining etc is top 20 and better grossers for the year. For Horror and Drama stuff that is strong.
Click to expand...

I was specifically referring to IT when I said that, but you're right in that a few of them were strong relative to the time they came out (and their budgets).
 
T

Triggerhappytel

Member
kswiston said:
Worldwide updates

Dunkirk - $106M
Spider-Man Homecoming - $572M


Wonder Woman - $779M
Pirates 5 - $767M
Despicable Me 3 - $727M
Transformers 5 - $548M
The Mummy - $392M
Cars 3 - $250M
Click to expand...

So Cars 3 is going to be Pixar's second box office bomb? And The Mummy has done better than I'd thought. Kind of hoped it would do poorly enough for Universal to cancel their 'Dark Universe', but I guess that's not the case. And good predictions on where Homecoming will end up?
 
S

samar11

Member
Triggerhappytel said:
So Cars 3 is going to be Pixar's second box office bomb? And The Mummy has done better than I'd thought. Kind of hoped it would do poorly enough for Universal to cancel their 'Dark Universe', but I guess that's not the case. And good predictions on where Homecoming will end up?
Click to expand...

Well its not out in Japan and China (second largest market outside of US, according to some) plus its only been out for a couple of weeks so who knows. I think it will be 700+ million. Domestic numbers its already beaten ASM2, I think it will cross over 300 million eventually beating ASM1 as well. Not bad
 
G

Glass Rebel

Member
I watched Valerian with my girlfriend yesterday and it was one of the most harrowing experiences ever. Cara isn't a great actress but some of the lines she was given... goddamn.

At least it looked pretty.
 
O

overcast

Member
Obliterator said:
Yeah, be prepared for a huge domestic jump. Its happening.

$300+ is happening if it reviews strongly
Click to expand...
Honestly regardless of my opinion or others on Marvel movies. Is there any doubt these next few get 80+ on RT?

I can see Infinity War getting like 82-84 (which is low for Marvel lately) given it's a big team up flick and could be bloated. Marvel just has a certain quality control that im personally not big on but no doubt creates lean, enjoyable flicks for many.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
overcast said:
Honestly regardless of my opinion or others on Marvel movies. Is there any doubt these next few get 80+ on RT?

I can see Infinity War getting like 82-84 (which is low for Marvel lately) given it's a big team up flick and could be bloated. Marvel just has a certain quality control that im personally not big on but no doubt creates lean, enjoyable flicks for many.
Click to expand...
Which is why the notion that strong reviews will help Thor is laughable. Marvel movies for the most part have received solid reviews but this has never been linked with their box office gross or legs.
 
E

EGM1966

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
Avatar cost a lot of fucking money.

So did Titanic.

I don't think we're ever gonna get a solid number on what they actually cost, so we might as well just roll with whatever's been reported.

The numbers they ended up pulling anyway made their budgets more or less irrelevant.
Click to expand...
Yup. It's also worth noting the obvious challenge to emulating Avatar: who are you going to trust with that much money if you do assume the rumours of hidden mega budgets are true?

Pretty small list of possible directors I'd say and the problem is they're simply not directors for hire: they're only interested in what they want to make not trying to ape Avatar.

Arguably Valerian right now is showing the challenge of just assuming you can take a huge budget and deliver s hit with great effects: it's not guaranteed and if you get it wrong... that's a lot of money down the drain.
 
S

Shauni

Member
It'll be something if Thor manages to hang with Spider-Man and Justice League. I don't think it actually will, but that would be something.
 
Z

ZeroX03

Banned
Still haven't seen Dunkirk, went to book some tickets at IMAX and all the good seats are booked out a week in advance. Evening screenings are already like 50%+ sold out. Extremely anecdotal, but the local legs are looking strong.

But now I either have to settle for a crappy seat or waiting over a week. Grr.
 
G

Glass Rebel

Member
Shauni said:
It'll be something if Thor manages to hang with Spider-Man and Justice League. I don't think it actually will, but that would be something.
Click to expand...

It'll be something if Guardians of the Galaxy manages to hang with Spider-Man and Justice League. I don't think it actually will, but that would be something.

;)

As for Ragnarok's performance, based on previous data, it's gonna be the highest grossing CBM of 2017: Every movie that gad Hulk punching Thor made over $1.5b WW.

🌝
 
G

Glass Rebel

Member
Shauni said:
Homecoming and GOTG are guaranteed billion dollar films
Click to expand...

Yes, I know that movies get overestimated as well.

GOTG's ceiling was lower than expected but I also think that Thor's shouldn't be underestimated. It has Hulk in it and the response has been great so far.
 
C

Caode

Member
Triggerhappytel said:
So Cars 3 is going to be Pixar's second box office bomb? And The Mummy has done better than I'd thought. Kind of hoped it would do poorly enough for Universal to cancel their 'Dark Universe', but I guess that's not the case. And good predictions on where Homecoming will end up?
Click to expand...

Cars still has around 20 markets that it's yet to open in. Box office returns aren't where it's at for those films anyway, it's all in the merchandise, it's absurd just how much revenue that (terrible) franchise generates on the merchandise side of it.
 
A

Angel_DvA

Member
The problem with Apes is the marketing, they always show something the movie is not, fool me once...

Terrible numbers for Valerian ( it doesn't deserve to bomb ), Dunkirk is the best movie I've seen in theater in the last 5 years so I hope it'll do even better.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Wkd B.O. 11•09-11•18 - Grinch steals box office, over 'lord and dragon tattoo'd girl
0
805
xaosslug replied
Wkd B.O. 09•21-23•18 - It's The House with a Clock in Its Walls' time to shine as Fahrenheit doesn't measure up.
4
922
shira replied
Wkd B.O. 09•07-09•18 - None can stop The Nun as audiences decide to solve a problem like "the nun" by going to see it
2
905
Tesseract replied
EuropaCorp’s Stock Value Drops in Wake of ‘Valerian’s’ Poor Opening Weekend
2 3
131
16K
TheRed replied
Wkd BO 07•28-30•17 - Nolan not Dun' w/ #1 run, = Atomic
24 25 26 27 28
1K
99K
Gentleman Jack replied
Top Bottom