Wkd BO 8•04-06•17 - Man in Black kidnaps #1, Dun' not done son, Woman nears $400m DOM

#51
This weekend, the Despicable Me franchise (Minions included) passed Shrek to become the highest grossing animated franchise of all time, at $3.55B. Shrek is still ahead domestically.

Runners up are Ice Age at $3.22B and Madagascar at $2.26B.
 
#52
Holy shit, will War even manage to make half of what Dawn did?

Movie was uncompromising. Really good, but not the kind of movie you tell your friends to go and watch. It's a more solemn experience.
It's a damn shame War dropped so much from Dawn. It's a really good movie but just a terrible release date and mis-marketed.
 
#53
Worldwide updates

Despicable Me 3 - $879M (now the top gross of the summer)
Wonder Woman - $794M
Pirates 5 - $781M
Spider-Man Homecoming - $671M
Transformers 5 - $583M
Dunkirk - $314M
Cars 3 - $286M
War for the Planet of the Apes - $278M
Baby Driver - $155M

Also from the last thread, Wolf Warrior 2 has now grossed $469M in China after a second weekend of $162M (giving it the largest second weekend in a single territory). Domestically the film has made $1M in two weekends.
2017 is going to have the least $1B films in how many years?
 
#54
Damn man. Poor Planet of the Apes. They made a great movie, but it was certainly not your standard action movie blockbuster.

Really should not have called it 'War'.
 
#61
I don't know that Blade Runner will hit $60mil opening weekend, but it's a fucking guarantee it'll make more in its opening weekend (maybe even just Fri-Sat) than the original did for its entire run.
 
#62
Meh weekend it seems. Dark Tower was #1, but if it wasn't for the low-budget it would basically be a dud, at least Dunkirk had a great drop though.

Well, summer movie season is officially over. I'll see you cats in October when Blade Runner 2049 opens to 96% RT and $60 million opening weekend domestic.
I wish. It seems too niche right now sadly.
 
#63
I don't know that Blade Runner will hit $60mil opening weekend, but it's a fucking guarantee it'll make more in its opening weekend (maybe even just Fri-Sat) than the original did for its entire run.
Yeah, $32m ow should happen.

Edit: or $27m...seems it had a re-release.
 
#69
I guess the mandate at Sony is keep the budget low and aim for surprise hits or atleast make your money back. Hope they execute better with the quality side of things in the future.
 
#70
I believe since 2014.
Maybe not. 2 films are over $1B currently. The Last Jedi is locked to hit that number.

Despicable Me 3 is going to get really close. I think it will have to settle for a gross around where DM2 landed, but $1B isn't completely dead yet.

I know that people like to laugh at Justice League, but I think it has an outside shot at $1B+. We'll see where its public reception ends up.

Hell, if Wolf Warrior 2 doesn't slow down, it could end up breaking $1B. It would have to fare better than most Chinese movies overseas to hit that mark though. Say 10% foreign gross instead of 1-2%.

Even if 2017 has to settle for just 3 films over the $1B mark, at least all of those films will be well over $1B. Three of the four in 2016 squeaked by that milestone.
 
#72
Including re-issue and final cut?
Yup. It'll clear $35mil OW, I'm pretty sure.

It's not a huge brand, but Blade Runner has become very recognized/recognizable in the last 30 years. WB is gonna push it like an important prestige picture while also positioning it as some sort of action flick (which was part of why the original got backlash back in 82 - they thought they were getting a different kind of Harrison Ford flick).

But considering they just successfully executed that approach with Nolan's Dunkirk (and the production is moving the music team from that film over to Blade Runner, too), I think a box-office around 40-50 OW is pretty feasible.

If they really put the hammer down on the marketing in the weeks before its release, they could possibly get up to $60mil.

But then you're looking at another situation where audiences are asked to watch one kind of movie and sit down for 2 hours of Denis Villeneuve doing whatever the fuck he wants in the Blade Runner sandbox.

Then again - people generally liked Arrival. So who knows!
 
#75
Arrival opened to around 24 million so the marketing didn't really do its job in getting the movie to open higher. I have no idea how people are seeing Blade Runner achieving $60m since there is next to no chance it can get close to that number. Even a series like Mission Impossible which has a solid fanbase didn't open to $60 million and the action elements of Blade Runner, atleast from the trailer, are hardly exciting. It tries to sell the movie through its visuals which are gorgeous but so was Ghost in the Shell and we all know how it turned out.

IMO, Blade Runner should open somewhere between 20 to 30 million but the rest of its box office depends on word of mouth. It can pass $100 million at the end of the day but I don't think it has a shot at $150 million.
 

Heshinsi

"playing" dumb? unpossible
#76
Worldwide updates

Despicable Me 3 - $879M (now the top gross of the summer)
Wonder Woman - $794M
Pirates 5 - $781M
Spider-Man Homecoming - $671M
Transformers 5 - $583M
Dunkirk - $314M
Cars 3 - $286M
War for the Planet of the Apes - $278M
Baby Driver - $155M

Also from the last thread, Wolf Warrior 2 has now grossed $469M in China after a second weekend of $162M (giving it the largest second weekend in a single territory). Domestically the film has made $1M in two weekends.
Spidey hasn't opened in China yet right?
 
#78
Is the Dark Tower that bad? My wife and I were interested in seeing it.
The first 20 minutes are a mess, but honestly, after that it's a pretty good film. Some smarter editing choices early and a few braver story telling choices would have done a lot to improve how it sits with critics, IMO. It's not a terrible movie. Elba is fantastic.

Edit: Baby Driver is at $155m WW, will hit $100m DOM, on a $34m budget. Pretty big hit, Wright has gotta feel great about it.
 
#79
Arrival opened to around 24 million so the marketing didn't really do its job in getting the movie to open higher. I have no idea how people are seeing Blade Runner achieving $60m since there is next to no chance it can get close to that number. Even a series like Mission Impossible which has a solid fanbase didn't open to $60 million and the action elements of Blade Runner, atleast from the trailer, are hardly exciting. It tries to sell the movie through its visuals which are gorgeous but so was Ghost in the Shell and we all know how it turned out.

IMO, Blade Runner should open somewhere between 20 to 30 million but the rest of its box office depends on word of mouth. It can pass $100 million at the end of the day but I don't think it has a shot at $150 million.
Gosling bump, mi amigo
 
#82
Arrival opened to around 24 million so the marketing didn't really do its job in getting the movie to open higher. I have no idea how people are seeing Blade Runner achieving $60m since there is next to no chance it can get close to that number. Even a series like Mission Impossible which has a solid fanbase didn't open to $60 million and the action elements of Blade Runner, atleast from the trailer, are hardly exciting. It tries to sell the movie through its visuals which are gorgeous but so was Ghost in the Shell and we all know how it turned out.

IMO, Blade Runner should open somewhere between 20 to 30 million but the rest of its box office depends on word of mouth. It can pass $100 million at the end of the day but I don't think it has a shot at $150 million.
Arrival is a very different movie than Blade Runner (and is being sold differently), and reaction to Arrival was very positive after-the-fact. It didnt' open strong, but I'm arguing that Arrival's final reception might lay the groundwork for larger reciepts this time out when Villeneuve's name is paired with a recognizable "brand" like Blade Runner, such as it is. I don't know why, of all the comparison points, you picked Mission Impossible, either.

I think calling 2049 to open between 20-30mil OW is pretty lowball.
 
#84
Gosling bump, mi amigo
The Nice Guys

Arrival is a very different movie than Blade Runner (and is being sold differently), and reaction to Arrival was very positive after-the-fact. It didnt' open strong, but I'm arguing that Arrival's final reception might lay the groundwork for larger reciepts this time out when Villeneuve's name is paired with a recognizable "brand" like Blade Runner, such as it is. I don't know why, of all the comparison points, you picked Mission Impossible, either.

I think calling 2049 to open between 20-30mil OW is pretty lowball.
I only used Mission Impossible as an example to talk about a movie being sold based on its action. You said in your post that Warner Bros. might try to push it as an action flick, I simply said that even if we talk about one of the most popular action franchise, it hasn't had a domestic opening of $60 million.

I just think a Science Fiction Noir film is a hard sell and Blade Runner is being released so many years after the original that I doubt nostalgia will drive any box office gross. The name isn't relevant as say Star Wars. It is a pretty niche movie that reached critical acclaim but it is still a niche and I just don't see it suddenly making it big at box office.

Mad Max Fury Road exploded at the box office because it was an adrenaline filled ride from start to end with a very well liked cast of characters. I am listing this as an example to talk about a franchise which was relevant in the past and then brought back to critical and commercial success. Unless there is something in Blade Runner 2049 aside from Villeneuve, I don't think it is guaranteed to achieve success.
 
#91
Arrival is a very different movie than Blade Runner (and is being sold differently), and reaction to Arrival was very positive after-the-fact. It didnt' open strong, but I'm arguing that Arrival's final reception might lay the groundwork for larger reciepts this time out when Villeneuve's name is paired with a recognizable "brand" like Blade Runner, such as it is. I don't know why, of all the comparison points, you picked Mission Impossible, either.

I think calling 2049 to open between 20-30mil OW is pretty lowball.
Prisoners and Sicario sold me on his work basically forever. Arrival was good, and I have hope for BR.
 
#93
After we had that 73% second Friday drop doom and gloom thread for Homecoming, I started tracking opening weekend multipliers for all recent comic films through their second and third weekends of release (10 and 17 days of release). I skipped last week, but figured that it would be worth checking in to see how Spider-man compares to its contemporaries after weekend #5.

Code:
TITLE				5th Weekend Drop	31-day OW Multiplier
Deadpool			35%			2.48x
Batman v Superman		39%			1.92x
Civil War			49%^			2.17x
X-Men Apocalypse		53%			2.30x
Suicide Squad			19%*			2.22x
Doctor Strange			51%^			2.53x
Logan				41%			2.40x
Guardians of the Galaxy 2	53%^			2.43x
Wonder Woman 			37%			3.35x
Spider-Man Homecoming		34%			2.52x

^weekend after a holiday
*Holiday weekend
Actual 5th weekend drops are all over the place as some films hit holiday weekends while others are seeing post-holiday dips. However, I think that the OW multiplier column gives an impression of what is typical. Wonder Woman's legs mop the floor with everything, but Spider-Man remains on the high end of the opening weekend multiplier scale. I think that it will eventually end above Doctor Strange as well. Disney packed things in pretty quickly for Strange by late December.
 
#95
I guess some films are just critic-proof, made for and marketed towards a particular section of the audience that doesn't care for a score stamped infront of it. Emoji falls in that category. Suicide Squad was another.

Sucks for Apes. I quite liked it, but it was obvious it wouldn't make a whole lot as it's not a conventional blockbuster by any means.
 
#98
I don't think it's guaranteed anything other than 35mil OW. That's not necessarily a huge success. But I think north of 35 is a safe call.
I mean if it doesn't even open to $35 million, then it should be a bad sign for Warner Bros. It seems rather expensive and I think the budget is around $150 million.

I am still sticking with my expectations of between $20 to $30 million.
 
#99
Emoji looks like it is heading towards $80-90M domestic. That's respectable off of a $50M budget, but nothing special.

SPA remains a third tier animation studio.