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[MrPink93485]

It had the third highest opening day and weekend of all time, the second best midnights of all time (as you mentioned) and the highest 2D opening of all time. Avengers has just skewed people's perceptions.

If the Avengers had opened to $150M, people would have been ecstatic with the $175-180M weekend that most analysts are now estimating that the movie would have opened to without the Colorado shooting. However, after Avengers broke the $200M barrier, people started making crazy prediction for TDKR's opening. They had been assuming TDKR would be the biggest thing this summer, and instead of realizing that Avengers unexpected run changed things, they just upped their expectations. The exact same thing happened with the openings of Attack of the Clones and Pirates 3.

I wasn't expecting TDKR to break the OW, I had it at 190m, which I suspect would be about 10m (maybe 5m?) too much, but not too big of an overestimation. Obviously in pure gross, TDKR did fine, but the midnights which was legitimately massive represents such a large portion of the OW gross that looking at what TDKR did for the rest of the weekend, it did less than Spider-Man 3, Hunger Games, and TDK, despite the higher IMAX share. The admissions certainly was a good amount less than the former two and of course, the Avengers.

The point is, good or bad, there is usually a ton of talk about a big movie after release. For the case of TDKR, it's about two things rather than the quality of the film itself, which then turns away casual moviegoers who may now never see it.

 

[artist]

I wasn't expecting TDKR to break the OW, I had it at 190m, which I suspect would be about 10m (maybe 5m) too much, but not too big of an overestimation. Obviously in pure gross, TDKR did fine, but the midnights which was legitimately massive represents such a large portion of the OW gross that looking at what TDKR did for the rest of the weekend, it did less than Spider-Man 3, Hunger Games, and TDK, despite the higher IMAX share.

This pretty much sums its up nicely. FWIW I had it at 190M too.

It would have easily got to 190M especially when WB sent out pre-weekend figures of 170-180M to BO analysts.

The point is, good or bad, there is usually a ton of talk about a big movie after release. For the case of TDKR, it's about two things rather than the quality of the film itself, which then turns away casual moviegoers who may now never see it.

Yup. Even though the WOM seems excellent, the buzz is just deflated due to incident.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I think a big reason for why there's not a lot of hype for TDKR compared to Avengers is that TDKR is made more for fans of the comics while Avengers was made to be more of a family friendly summer action flick.

No. Avengers was Family friendly summer action flick that's simultaneously a Comic Book fans wet dream.

Joss Whedon pulled of a miracle that might go down in cinema history.

Avengers managed to please fans and non-fans alike. The lack of hype was probably due to it being directed by a relatively untested director and the fact it was an ensemble comicbook film. That was a lot of uncertainty from the internet.

Exactly. Avengers was just one giant cluster fuck waiting to happen, yet Whedon pulled the nearly impossible.

If anything, Avengers was more for the comic book fans than the regular movie going public. Like all the Marvel movies, there was so much in there just for the hardcore fans to see and appreciate. That is much more than can be said for the Nolan Batman movies. There are lots of little touches in the Nolan films for the comic geeks, but nowhere near the level of fan service that Whedon gave us with Avengers.

Avengers was the absolutely perfect balance of being a huge spectacle that clicked with the public, but also the right amount of fan service as to make the geeks even happier. The perfect storm that will be VERY hard to replicate again.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Yup. Even though the WOM seems excellent, the buzz is just deflated due to incident.

Not sure how you can divine this from the data.

 

[SpeedingUptoStop]

TDKR no need joker recast, that is stupid idea. TKDR just wasnt as good a movie as expected. neogaf can analyze the hell out from its plot and fill in the blanks, but to a regular movie goer, TDKR was too rushed and sloppy, it ended up feeling like another part 2 of a superhero movie.

Because regular movie goers don't post on Neogaf, much like yourself.

 

[Error]

talking as if Avengers is some cinema miracle... come on. If anything the LoTR trilogy is probably the most amazing achievement in cinema history. love it/hate it, you can't deny that it was a massive project and it paid off.

Avengers doesn't even come close to that achievement. It was a good movie, but some people suddenly hold it as a holy grail or something

 

[metalslimer]

talking as if Avengers is some cinema miracle... come on. If anything the LoTR trilogy is probably the most amazing achievement in cinema history. love it/hate it, you can't deny that it was a massive project and it paid off.

Avengers doesn't even come close to that achievement. It was a good movie, but some people suddenly hold it as a holy grail or something

Agreed. Avengers was good, but some people are treating it like some holy grail. I remember hearing how amazing Avatar was and then being brought back to earth when I actually saw it.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

talking as if Avengers is some cinema miracle... come on. If anything the LoTR trilogy is probably the most amazing achievement in cinema history. love it/hate it, you can't deny that it was a massive project and it paid off.

Avengers doesn't even come close to that achievement. It was a good movie, but some people suddenly hold it as a holy grail or something

I agree completely about LOTR.

But what I am referring to with Avengers is not saying it is going to be an all time great movie like LOTR will be. It was commenting about how Whedon was able to build something that really could have been a giant disaster, and he did it while pandering to the core fans and make it enjoyable to the general public.

It is not a movie of the year event movie, but it was damn fun.

 

[Tobor]

It had the third highest opening day and weekend of all time, the second best midnights of all time (as you mentioned) and the highest 2D opening of all time. Avengers has just skewed people's perceptions.

If the Avengers had opened to $150M, people would have been ecstatic with the $175-180M weekend that most analysts are now estimating that TDKR would have opened to without the Colorado shooting. However, after Avengers broke the $200M barrier, people started making crazy prediction for TDKR's opening. They had been assuming TDKR would be the biggest thing this summer, and instead of realizing that Avengers unexpected run changed things, they just upped their expectations. The exact same thing happened with the openings of Attack of the Clones and Pirates 3.



What does the Avengers have going for it that every other Mega-blockbuster didn't? $620M is a lot of money, and a 3x opening weekend multiplier for a mega-blockbuster doesn't happen often these days.

Seriously though, with everyone returning, Avengers 2 should do huge numbers.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Seriously though, with everyone returning, Avengers 2 should do huge numbers.

Well, Whedon has not decided if he will do it yet or not. And we don't know how big the Brink's truck is that needs to be delivered to RDJ to make him return.

And I am not a Whedon fan at all. I think he is vastly overrated, but he had a grand slam with Avengers and think he needs all the time and money he wants to do a sequel.

 

[Tobor]

Well, Whedon has not decided if he will do it yet or not. And we don't know how big the Brink's truck is that needs to be delivered to RDJ to make him return.

And I am not a Whedon fan at all. I think he is vastly overrated, but he had a grand slam with Avengers and think he needs all the time and money he wants to do a sequel.

If it's indeed true they spent $20 million on a new deal for ScarJo, I have no fears on Whedon returning, or RDJ getting his golden tower filled with money. Call me an optimist on this one.

 

[Error]

And I am not a Whedon fan at all. I think he is vastly overrated, but he had a grand slam with Avengers and think he needs all the time and money he wants to do a sequel.

Somehow I really doubt Whedon has the same creative freedom Nolan has at WB. Even with Avengers doing mad money, I just don't see it. Nolan pretty much bosses around WB these days.

 

[artist]

Not sure how you can divine this from the data.

Well people expected that the 2nd weekend would rebounce, it didnt. Plus there are numbers out there saying as much as 25% of the audience is staying away.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Somehow I really doubt Whedon has the same creative freedom Nolan has at WB. Even with Avengers doing mad money, I just don't see it. Nolan pretty much bosses around WB these days.

No, he does not have the same freedom Whedon does. Now if Whedon kept delivering monster hits like that, he would get all the freedom and money he would wont. Marvel is still very much the most powerful player in that relationship, but Whedon definitely got a lot more clout in Hollywood because of Avengers.

 

[apana]

I have a hard time deciding which was the better film between Avengers and Dark Knight Rises, they are very different films. In my opinion Avengers is essentially Marvel 2.0 and Dark Knight Rises is an ambitious film that I thought kind of fell flat on its face. All that being said, Avengers absolutely deserves the ridiculous amounts of money it has made. The film is for everyone, every demographic group can show up (from fanboys to families) and enjoy it, and it is incredibly fun. Right now I'm probably more excited for Avengers 2 than I am for Man of Steel and Batman reboot. I definitely did not start the year thinking that it would be that way.

 

[JdFoX187]

What does the Avengers have going for it that every other Mega-blockbuster didn't? $620M is a lot of money, and a 3x opening weekend multiplier for a mega-blockbuster doesn't happen often these days.

The thing Avengers has going in its favor is the freshness of the universe, if Marvel can pull it off. This movie was centered around Captain America, Iron Man, Thor and Hulk. We're already getting Guardians of the Galaxy and Ant Man with the next group. Who knows if they'll introduce some minor characters in those films like they did with Black Widow and Hawkeye. Avengers 2 could be a completely different film that could bring people back. And this is also with the shared universe building hype toward it. It could also go the other way and completely fail if the lead-up movies don't spark with the public.

EDIT: Not that I'm saying Avengers 2 will break the first movie's grosses. I don't think it will. Just saying that this is a completely different situation compared to The Dark Knight Rises.

 

[Escape Goat]

Comparing Avengers with Nolan's Batman is difficult because their tone couldn't be more different. I'd imagine their appeal vary widely among the various demographics. I can't think of any other comicbook movie because Batman was the only other competitor

 

[kswiston]

TDKR had a big Saturday bump after a disappointing Friday. Weekend estimate is $64M, which is great giving the $18M Fri total. I guess the Olympic opening ceremonies had some people waiting a day to go to the movies.

TDKR total after 10 days is $289M It should pass $300M on Tuesday.

 

[RBH]

TDKR had a big Saturday bump after a disappointing Friday. Weekend estimate is $64M, which is great giving the $18M Fri total. I guess the Olympic opening ceremonies had some people waiting a day to go to the movies.

About what I expected when I saw that 40 million people watched the opening ceremony on Friday.

 

[rezuth]

Does anyone have the URL to that box office prediction thread ?

 

[kswiston]

The Watch bombed with $13M. Ice Age made $13.3M.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

There's no doubt the shooting has had a big impact. People just aren't that excited to even talk about the film or think about it. Hell, the local radio reviewer spent half his review talking about the shooting, a huge downer.

 

[strafer]

Where is the new thread?

 

[kswiston]

Where is the new thread?

Boxofficemojo hasn't posted the full weekend estimates yet.

Most movies rebounded this week:

1 The Dark Knight Rises - $64,075,000 - (-60%) - $289,086,359

2 Ice Age: Continental Drift - $13,300,000 - (-35%) - $114,847,214

3 The Watch - $13,000,000

4 Step Up Revolution - $11,800,000

5 Ted (2012) - $7,400,000 - (-26%) - $193,665,600

6 The Amazing Spider-Man - $6,800,000 - (-38%) - $242,052,610

7 Brave - $4,237,000 - (-30%) - $217,261,519

8 Magic Mike - $2,580,000 - (-40%) - $107,586,855

9 Savages - $1,800,000 - (-47%) - $43,945,570

10 Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - $1,320,000 - (-41%) - $62,747,297

 

[ViewtifulJC]

Boy, Ted is really racking it up, considering it's budget and buzz before release.

 

[NomarTyme]

Tyler Perry will never lose money in his movies. NEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[kswiston]

Amazing Spider-man's worldwide total is now $654M. It is on pace to reach $700M without China. The Chinese release will decide whether this ends up at $750M or $800M.

Either way, the movie will be down versus Spider-man 3 both domestically and overseas despite the 3D bump.

 

[JdFoX187]

Amazing Spider-man's worldwide total is now $654M. It is on pace to reach $700M without China. The Chinese release will decide whether this ends up at $750M or $800M.

Either way, the movie will be down versus Spider-man 3 both domestically and overseas despite the 3D bump.

Still not too bad considering it's a reboot coming off a pretty terrible last movie. I'm interested to see what the sequel will do.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

10 Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection - $1,320,000 - (-41%) - $62,747,297

smh

 

[Vyer]

Speaking of Richard Ayoade (who I love love LOVE in the IT Crowd), here's a funny review of the Watch which basically says he's the only good part of it:

http://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/scifi/watch-review.html

Choice quotes:
"The fourth member of their group, played by The IT Crowd’s Richard Ayoade, is left sitting back and observing as his castmates spout an endless amount of nonsense. For him, it must have been like spending a day at the zoo watching monkeys throw shit at each other. All you can really do in that situation is try not to get hit."

"Ayoade, though the film has absolutely no idea how to use him and seems to leave him sitting quietly in the corner for long stretches, is absolutely the only good thing about The Watch. But he’s only good because he has the good sense to stay the hell out of this shitstorm of awful the rest of the cast seems intent on creating. Everyone in it sucks except Richard Ayoade, and he’s only good because he had the sense to do absolutely nothing. Seeing him in this film is like watching someone confronted by a T-Rex, hoping that if he holds really still it won’t eat him. Given how terrible The Watch is, it was the only sensible thing to do."

I almost want to see this, just to see him retain his dignity in this shitfest. Almost. LOL

Meh, Internet fans trying to separate Ayoade is hardly a surprise, but not necessarily correct. Vaughn's character is overbearing, but that's really the only one that overwhelms the rest. Ayoade is just as big a part of the rest of the film, and is a prominent member in two key sections of it, so he's just as much a contributor to its success or failure as the rest IMO. Well, except for Vince.

Movie was meh, will probably gain more traction once it hits blu ray/DVD. Should have been much better, but it has a few moments.

 

[RBH]

I want to see some Batman related jpegs/gifs from DMczaf in the next box office thread, because this thread had a severe lack of them!

 

[kswiston]

I want to see some Batman related jpegs/gifs from DMczaf in the next box office thread, because this thread had a severe lack of them!

The shooting (understandably) spoiled what would have been an epic weekly thread. I never would have thought that TDKR's opening weekend box office thread would fizzle out at 5-6 pages. I am pretty sure the Avengers' thread broke 2000 posts. Even the Hunger Games netted a longer thread.

 

[artist]

Does anyone have the URL to that box office prediction thread ?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=469622

 

[ryutaro's mama]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=469622

Wow, no one came close to correctly predicting the Avengers.

 

[Speedymanic]

Wow, no one came close to correctly predicting the Avengers.

Joss Whedon, dude.

Joss Whedon.

 

[kswiston]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=469622

I can understand lowballing the Avengers, but I am surprised to see 5 under $140M opening predictions for TDKR. That was never going to happen, even if the movie was bad.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Sunday´s estimates (you can also see Friday and Saturday).

TDKR made $465 million WW so far.

 

[artist]

Sunday´s estimates (you can also see Friday and Saturday).

TDKR made $465 million WW so far.

You can see the weekend estimates here; http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=30&p=.htm

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

You can see the weekend estimates here; http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=30&p=.htm

It was not up when i linked it They only showed daily estimates.

 

[artist]

TDKR made $465 million WW so far.

The OS total is also updated, up to 537M WW now.