If you are looking at return on investment by percentage, the horror genre is hard to beat. Probably the only movie genre with a sizable audience that doesn't really depend on A-list stars, fancy special effects, or outstanding performances to do well. As long as the deliver on the scares and/or gore people are satisfied.
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Wkd Box Office Est. 0720-2212 - and still we rise
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If you are looking at return on investment by percentage, the horror genre is hard to beat. Probably the only movie genre with a sizable audience that doesn't really depend on A-list stars, fancy special effects, or outstanding performances to do well. As long as the deliver on the scares and/or gore people are satisfied.
Boombloxer
Member
Sure, but it's still going to be compared to the first trilogy, gross-wise. Not sure how it did in comparison to the other Marvel films, but Spider-man is supposed to make enough bank to fund quite a few movies.
Anyone know what the expectations were from Sony?
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
TDKR just doesn't have the buzz I expected, little or no word of mouth. One person in the office saw it and said it was good. With Avengers everyone was talking about it for weeks and a group of us left work and watched it.
Iron Man should have a bigger pile of cash than Batman.
TheKaeptain
Banned
Yeah I work in a shipping yard with around 100 other people and everyone is talking about it. That's all the discussion has been about for the last few days.
MrPink93485
Member
Yup. Adults were even talking about the Hunger Games back in March and they weren't even the target demographic. Movies don't make $150M+ in a single weekend with zero buzz.
TDKR will still be one of the 10 largest films domestically and Worldwide of the past 10 years, even though it will likely fall short of TDK.
Really? I always thought that (on GFA at least) expectations were quite realistic.
It's not a case of failure it's a case of taking your single biggest franchise bar none and recreating it's success.
If ASM were in a vacuum there is no doubt it's a success but given that it's a continuation of a brand it feels less so.
By comparison how do you think WB would feel if a reboot of say Harry Potter made 'only' $700m worldwide?
It's not really the same though. All of the Harry Potter movies were well received where as ASM is coming off Spider-man 3 which was almost universally panned by its fans.
bigtroyjon
Member
You've talked about the Tuesday effect being different now than it was a few years ago, so looking at the Monday to Wednesday drop to smooth out Mon-Tue and Tue-Wed.
TDK -24.9%
TDKR-28.9%
And that's after TDK had a better Sunday to Monday drop. I wonder if it can even hit 500 at this point, because beating TDK doesn't seem possible. Avengers rapid drop off made me realize how impressive TDK's late life run was.
TDKR is not going to get to $500M at this point. Subtracting opening midnight grosses, the Dark Knight has made almost $23M more than TDKR from Fri-Wed. TDK will be ahead of TDKR today by around $4M, increasing its lead to $14M or so going into the weekend. TDK was only $33M past the $500M barrier, so there isn't a ton of wiggle room to start with.
Realistically, TDKR is looking at a second weekend number in the $60-65M range. Assuming a 12.5M Thursday, here is my guess for this weekend:
Friday: $18.8M (+50%)
Saturday: 23.4M (+25%)
Sunday: $19.9 (-15%)
Total = $62.1M
That would be a 61% drop, or 52% minus first weekend midnights. TDK dropped around 46% in its second weekend when you minus the first weekend midnights.
It is too early to predict TDKR's domestic gross, but I think $450M is a more realistic endpoint than $500M given what we have seen so far.
RBelong2Us
Member
Looks like Rises won't end up making as much domestically as Dark Knight but might end up making 200m+ more than DK overseas
PhoncipleBone
Banned
In other words, it will all balance out in the end.
TDKR's Thursday estimate is $13.0M. As always, actual numbers will be out this afternoon.
$13M is a little better than I thought it would do honestly (I had $12.5M above). Using the same increases I used in the post above, the second weekend total would be $64.5M. That is still assuming a hefty 50% rise on Friday. TDK increased 41%, Deathly Hallows 2 increased 30%, and Inception increased 52% on that same weekend (all of them opened on the third weekend in July). However Inception had much better percentage holds than any of the other movies throughout the week.
If the estimate holds, TDKR will go into the weekend with $224.8M. TDK was at $238.6M after the same 7 days.
Depending on what it makes this weekend, TDKR will hit $300M on either Monday or Tuesday, after 11-12 days. That would still make it the third fastest movie to hit that milestone after the Avengers (9 days) and TDK (10 days).
$13M is a little better than I thought it would do honestly (I had $12.5M above). Using the same increases I used in the post above, the second weekend total would be $64.5M. That is still assuming a hefty 50% rise on Friday. TDK increased 41%, Deathly Hallows 2 increased 30%, and Inception increased 52% on that same weekend (all of them opened on the third weekend in July). However Inception had much better percentage holds than any of the other movies throughout the week.
If the estimate holds, TDKR will go into the weekend with $224.8M. TDK was at $238.6M after the same 7 days.
Depending on what it makes this weekend, TDKR will hit $300M on either Monday or Tuesday, after 11-12 days. That would still make it the third fastest movie to hit that milestone after the Avengers (9 days) and TDK (10 days).
MrPink93485
Member
Hope so as well, but I get the feeling the increase will be closer to TDK rather than Inception, which means low 60s. Anything over 65 would be great I think, that would be 50% drop minus midnights
Actually, looking at the daily chart, the entire top 10 other than TDKR had an increase on Thursday. That almost never happens (holdovers usually drop slightly on Thursdays). The animated films (Ice Age, Brave, and Madagascar) all went 15-33%.
Did something happen yesterday to cause a huge spike in theatre business?
Did something happen yesterday to cause a huge spike in theatre business?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
MOr elikely I think that the weekend was artificially depressed. People getting out to see things they missed last weekend? Or going out on Thursday and avoiding the weekend?
Friday estimates are coming in. The Dark Knight Rises made $18M, up 36% from Thursday. Not all that great. Expect a second weekend similar to Spider-Man 3 or The Hunger Games ($55-60M).
The Dark Knight made $23M on its second Friday.
If legs don't kick in for TDKR soon, it might not even be the #2 movie of the year.
The Dark Knight made $23M on its second Friday.
If legs don't kick in for TDKR soon, it might not even be the #2 movie of the year.
Speedymanic
Banned
Can this really still be fallout from the shooting? Maybe it's time to accept that it simply didn't play as well to the masses as TDK did.
I dismissed the Ledger effect with TDK, but it's increasingly looking like that may have played a pretty big part in why people went to see en masse.
The movie is behaving like a normal blockbuster, instead of an event movie like TDK or The Avengers. Even if the shooting lowered the opening weekend gross by $20M, that doesn't really explain the poorer daily drops vs TDK that TDKR had. If anything, a depressed opening weekend should have lead to better daily drops.
Yesterday was the Olympic opening ceremony, so maybe the Friday number looks worse than it is, but as it stands, TDKR looks to be headed to just over $400M. A $58M weekend would be a 64% drop.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
The best explanation for it. It will chug along and still make serious bank. It just wasn't the "HOLY SHIT!" surprise event like Dark Knight and Avengers became.
I felt like it should've been an event movie, since it was the final film in this particular trilogy. Or at least the last Batman movie for a little while. It's shame, I was hoping this one would outdo TDK.
On the bright side, the international numbers have increased greatly from TDK's run. So the movie will make much more overseas than the last one did.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
@s_oldham: Early Box Office: "Dark Knight" on track for nearly $65M, down 60% from last weekend; "The Watch" BOMBING at No. 2 w/ $15 mil.
LOL The Watch. That movie looked incredibly UNfunny in every single spot or trailer. I was stunned how much I was not laughing at the previews, with a cast like that.
LOL The Watch. That movie looked incredibly UNfunny in every single spot or trailer. I was stunned how much I was not laughing at the previews, with a cast like that.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Opening night was the event. It just doesn't seem to have latched onto the public consciousness like TDK and Avengers did. Either way, it will do very well in the end.
I know. That is a great comedy cast, but nothing looks good at all outside of that. Urgh.
I feel bad for Richard Ayouade. He's hilarious and deserves better than this for his first American movie. Then again, he took the role, so what can you do?
Hopefully this isn't his only shot at it.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Not having the Joker played a huge factor into I'd say. The Joker was a large draw during the OW. I mean for one, Heath Ledger, but it's the motherfucking JOKER. Batman's archenemy.
If Heath Ledger would've live there is not a single doubt in my mind Bane would not even be in TDKR and Nolan would've chose some other villain, to go along with the Joker.
I've been saying the same thing.
I'll go one step further, a recast of the Joker would have done better than TDKR. The Joker is a part of this saga. Writing him out of the script and replacing with boring Bane was a mistake.
I don't particularly agree. I think Bane is a fine villain for this movie, and far more terrifying and threatening than Joker ever was. But also, I think recasting him would've been a major distraction for the movie. People would've been more fixated on comparing the two performances than the actual movie. It just wouldn't have benefited the movie. Maybe it would've done more financially, but I don't think it would've made it a better movie.
What I like about all these movies is that they're all pretty different from each other. I for one am glad they didn't rest on their laurels and just do a retread of TDK. I'm seeing a lot of people who think that the Joker should've been the villain again and they should've replaced
Bain's "revolution"
Yeah, we definitely disagree. The Joker is infinitely more interesting than Bane, and the movie would have been better, even with a recast.
As for money, I think that's a given. The Joker is a better draw.
Well there's always the next Batman movies. I'm sure WB knows that the Joker is a big draw and they're gonna make sure he's in the next movie.
longdi
Banned
TDKR no need joker recast, that is stupid idea. TKDR just wasnt as good a movie as expected. neogaf can analyze the hell out from its plot and fill in the blanks, but to a regular movie goer, TDKR was too rushed and sloppy, it ended up feeling like another part 2 of a superhero movie.
Heath Ledger's performance of the Joker was his own and no one would have been able to replicate that, no matter how good of an actor they were. It's best they did it the way they did. Completely rewriting the movie just to shoe-horn Joker in probably would have done more harm than good and wouldn't have fit with the thematic elements Nolan was going for.
TDKR is coming in further below TDK at the domestic box office than most people expected (at least partially because of the shooting), but this happens all the time. A movie blows up and becomes the event film of the year. The sequel is made and fans start predicting that the sequel will do even better. The sequel is released, makes more opening day/weekend, but fails to match the original event film's total. Fans are disappointed.
Sometimes, it isn't even a matter of quality. By most accounts, Spider-man 2 was as good as the first movie, if not better, yet it still made less at the box office after a larger first week. I fully expect Avengers 2 and Avatar 2 to make less than their prequels as well, even if they are good. The same will probably be true of Catching Fire. We might get an opening day or opening weekend record out of one of those, but I don't think any of them will improve on their predecessor's total.
Sometimes, it isn't even a matter of quality. By most accounts, Spider-man 2 was as good as the first movie, if not better, yet it still made less at the box office after a larger first week. I fully expect Avengers 2 and Avatar 2 to make less than their prequels as well, even if they are good. The same will probably be true of Catching Fire. We might get an opening day or opening weekend record out of one of those, but I don't think any of them will improve on their predecessor's total.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Catching Fire will be the best of those movies I think. And it will have a monster opening. But I was VERY surprised at the legs that Hunger Games had. That was very impressive.
It's the best book of the trilogy, so it should be the best film. I don't think anyone saw Hunger Games limping to $400 million like it did. That was extremely impressive. I'm curious how the November opening is going to affect it though. I know Lionsgate is trying copy Twilight, but I thought they did an excellent job launching in March when there's rarely anything out.
If you look at the $300M+ domestic list it is nowhere near 50/50. The big exception is the LOTR movies. The only other sequels to $300M+ movies that made more than their predecessors were Transformers 2 and Pirates 2 (which blew up similar to TDK, but on a smaller scale), and both the final Harry Potter and Final Star Wars movie. Even at that, Episode 3 was down from the Phantom Menace. None of the $400M+ movies have had higher grossing sequels yet. I am not going to say it is impossible that Mocking Jay will out-gross The Hunger Games, but I don't think it is very likely. I think instead, we will see a drop like we did from Harry Potter 1 to Harry Potter 2. I expect midnights to be a lot bigger, and the opening weekend to be somewhat bigger for Catching Fire though.
Not sure how the November release will work for Catching Fire. On one hand, the movie's late legs will get extended as it enters the holidays. On the other, I think the Hunger Games benefited from being basically the only worthwhile blockbuster to open from its release to the Avengers opening. It definitely helped it keep up its theatre count.
EDIT: Also, both the Harry Potter and Twilight films had a pretty consistent domestic take. If we subtract 3D revenue from the Deathly Hallows 2, it would have been somewhere in the $325-340M range, which is only a 10% bump or so from the previous films in attendance. Even if Catching Fire is below the Hunger Games, I doubt it drops off much.
Calamari41
41 > 38
I guarantee you that if Heath Ledger's Joker were in this movie, the hype would have been absolutely off the charts. People loved that character, and when I say people I mean the people who make a movie an event. Bane? Nobody outside of people like us even know who he is, and when they see him, he just looks like some random guy with a weird gas mask on. It's still making a lot of money, but I'll guarantee you that my parents won't see TDKR, while they saw TDK twice all without me dragging them or even suggesting that they go.
MrPink93485
Member
Increases were pretty awful across the board last night, probably an effect of the Olympics.
TDKR isn't latching onto the public consciousness, but that's where I think the shooting made its biggest effect...a good chunk of talk about the movie is related to something negative rather than talk about the movie itself, and now the window for recovery has long since passed. It was riding a wave of momentum, but then the movie came out, and aside from the midnights, there was nothing really monster-like in terms of numbers, and it really curbed that momentum.
TDKR isn't latching onto the public consciousness, but that's where I think the shooting made its biggest effect...a good chunk of talk about the movie is related to something negative rather than talk about the movie itself, and now the window for recovery has long since passed. It was riding a wave of momentum, but then the movie came out, and aside from the midnights, there was nothing really monster-like in terms of numbers, and it really curbed that momentum.
Yeah, the pre-sale ticket numbers for TDKR were doubled from that of The Avengers.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I'll give you Avatar 2 not making as much money as the first movie, but Avengers? Hell to the fucking no. The franchise has WAY too much going for it for the sequel to not upsurp its BO total.
No. Avengers was Family friendly summer action flick that's simultaneously a Comic Book fans wet dream.
Joss Whedon pulled of a miracle that might go down in cinema history.
Mega Man's Electric Sheep
Member
Speaking of Richard Ayoade (who I love love LOVE in the IT Crowd), here's a funny review of the Watch which basically says he's the only good part of it:
http://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/scifi/watch-review.html
Choice quotes:
"The fourth member of their group, played by The IT Crowds Richard Ayoade, is left sitting back and observing as his castmates spout an endless amount of nonsense. For him, it must have been like spending a day at the zoo watching monkeys throw shit at each other. All you can really do in that situation is try not to get hit."
"Ayoade, though the film has absolutely no idea how to use him and seems to leave him sitting quietly in the corner for long stretches, is absolutely the only good thing about The Watch. But hes only good because he has the good sense to stay the hell out of this shitstorm of awful the rest of the cast seems intent on creating. Everyone in it sucks except Richard Ayoade, and hes only good because he had the sense to do absolutely nothing. Seeing him in this film is like watching someone confronted by a T-Rex, hoping that if he holds really still it wont eat him. Given how terrible The Watch is, it was the only sensible thing to do."
I almost want to see this, just to see him retain his dignity in this shitfest. Almost. LOL
MrPink93485
Member
Yeah, but that was kind of a given, it was the finale to a highly anticipated sequel, while Marvel films have never been big pre-sellers. But a 30m midnight should mean at least an 80m OD, and probably closer to 85-90m, which is a lot of business that can spread the word, and compound that with the rest of the weekend and dailies, then it really can mean a world of difference in terms of buzz and of course, gross.
The daily drops for TDKR, weren't bad, they were pretty normal, TDK's Monday was absolutely incredible but it's hard to compare to something like TDK when dailies have changed a lot since 2008. The Monday drop was also a result of spillover, that TDKR didn't really get due to depressed grosses in the first place. The increase yesterday was legitimately bad though.
Escape Goat
Member
Avengers managed to please fans and non-fans alike. The lack of hype was probably due to it being directed by a relatively untested director and the fact it was an ensemble comicbook film. That was a lot of uncertainty from the internet.
It had the third highest opening day and weekend of all time, the second best midnights of all time (as you mentioned) and the highest 2D opening of all time. Avengers has just skewed people's perceptions.
If the Avengers had opened to $150M, people would have been ecstatic with the $175-180M weekend that most analysts are now estimating that TDKR would have opened to without the Colorado shooting. However, after Avengers broke the $200M barrier, people started making crazy prediction for TDKR's opening. They had been assuming TDKR would be the biggest thing this summer, and instead of realizing that Avengers unexpected run changed things, they just upped their expectations. The exact same thing happened with the openings of Attack of the Clones and Pirates 3.
What does the Avengers have going for it that every other Mega-blockbuster didn't? $620M is a lot of money, and a 3x opening weekend multiplier for a mega-blockbuster doesn't happen often these days.
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