Colonel Nasty
Member
I think the "negative word of mouth" is the wrong term, more like there isn't the "holy shit, have you seen the Dark Knight?" that was present last time.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wkd Box Office Est. 0720-2212 - and still we rise
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
- Status
AnathemicOne
Banned
Avengers will beat this movie in the box office, guarunteed.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
IMDB rankings mean nothing.
http://www.imdb.com/chart/top
According to IMDB, Dark Knight Rises is a better film than Seven Samurai and Casablanca. That is all the justification I need to know that IMDB rankings are completely useless.
Exactly. The WOM will not be negative. It will just not be "OMG YOU MUST SEE THIS MOVIE!" like it had last time. It will behave like any other summer film I think. Either way, it will still make a ton of money.
MrPink93485
Member
Well of course. There's certainly no shot now, after that opening
As I mentioned, audience polling was very positive...the legs will be fine overall.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
No one saying it was going to beat it.
No shit. I don't think anyone thought otherwise.
Bomba confirmed!
But what about the opinion of the friends of your friend!??!
Colonel Nasty
Member
The fact that Inception is so high should automatically invalidate those ranking. I enjoyed Inception but it's not on the level of those other films.
MrPink93485
Member
For 'leg' purposes though, Inception did pretty astounding from its OW.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I almost pointed that out, but using the most current Nolan movie was enough to show that the fans are a little overzealous in ranking the films. Much like Firefly fans in any "best of sci fi" poll. In fact, the only reason Firefly is not in the top 10 on IMDB is because it was a TV show.
It did. But that doesn't mean it is a better film than Casablanca, Seven Samurai, or Goodfellas.
Colonel Nasty
Member
Inception did pretty amazing for the kind of movie it was and the time it came out, but using IMDB user ratings means nothing. Fight Club is high on this list.
The movie has an A Cinemascore or whatever. It'll have good word of mouth.
EDIT: Mr. Pink already got that covered.
The movie bombed so badly that even Firefly fans don't know Serenity exists.
MrPink93485
Member
And I would never claim such a thing, but a newly released film ranking highly on IMDB's Top 250 usually means pretty good things for legs in all. Usually. IMDB would not be my barometer of how good WOM is though
that is completely subjective.
there are films I like more than casablanca.
where are not talking about which movie is better anyway, we are talking about WOM and going by the user rating in those sites for TDKR to say there is a negative WOM for the movie is just stupid.
A lot of people like it and the movie is gonna make mad money, why so serious?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I said that the movie was good (but not great) and would make mad money. Look back a few posts.
well, there's nothing else to argue about!
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Aside from the fact that IMDB rankings are meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
But really, TDKR will make tons of money in the end, but just not to the level that many were wanting/expecting it to. We should just be happy we were able to finally get three good Batman movies in a row, even if the final one was a (in my opinion) big step down from the previous two. At least it was not like the step down from Batman Returns to Batman Forever. *shudder*
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I was of the thinking that worldwide it might do more, but domestic didn't have a chance.
MrPink93485
Member
I think the chance was there for TDKR to do better than TDK domestically. The opening was looking good for 185m, which means it needed a 2.9x multiplier from there. Not an easy feat, but manageable compared to the 3.37 multiplier for TDK.
Worldwide, the international market is looking to easily make up for domestic losses at the current pace so far. It should break 1 billion still, even without a China release.
Worldwide, the international market is looking to easily make up for domestic losses at the current pace so far. It should break 1 billion still, even without a China release.
Indeed. I saw it a hajillion times and I can confirm that I am not and have never been a teenage girl.
The Outsider
Member
20m seems pretty strong for a Monday.
It is.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
The internet is a very powerful marketing tool you know. Not that i am agreeing with the guy who said it has a bad word of mouth.
$19.3M is great for a Monday, but it points to this weekend's gross for TDKR being far from record breaking. TDK made $5M more on its first Monday, heading into a $75M second weekend. Cheap Tuesday should help TDKR from losing too much ground today though. Far more theatres offer discounts now than 4 years ago.
Monday drops for the holdovers are 5% lighter than normal, so perhaps the box office is returning to normal. Amazing Spider-man took the most damage. Looks like the movie will crawl to $250M domestically now. Also, the movie will have to do quite well in China next month for it to hit the $800M Sony was forecasting a week or two back.
Avengers might be able to crawl towards $620M if it gets a dollar theatre re-expansion in the next couple of weeks. The Dark Knight made about $8M more after this point, but that movie is now making a little more weekly than the Avengers currently is. The Avengers needs a little less than $5M to hit $620M.
Ted should hit $200M in the next two weeks. It's not going to pass Amazing Spider-man domestically, but those two movies are going to finish a lot closer to each other than anyone would have predicted 2 months ago.
Monday drops for the holdovers are 5% lighter than normal, so perhaps the box office is returning to normal. Amazing Spider-man took the most damage. Looks like the movie will crawl to $250M domestically now. Also, the movie will have to do quite well in China next month for it to hit the $800M Sony was forecasting a week or two back.
Avengers might be able to crawl towards $620M if it gets a dollar theatre re-expansion in the next couple of weeks. The Dark Knight made about $8M more after this point, but that movie is now making a little more weekly than the Avengers currently is. The Avengers needs a little less than $5M to hit $620M.
Ted should hit $200M in the next two weeks. It's not going to pass Amazing Spider-man domestically, but those two movies are going to finish a lot closer to each other than anyone would have predicted 2 months ago.
What the fuck has that got to do with anything?!
No one thought it would...,
Absolutely. The performance of Ted could very end up being the surprise of the summer movie season.
As for ASM I'm not sure how Sony is going to feel about that film potentially finishing up at $700/750m at the WW box office. I have a feeling that the ASM sequel may be the first 'reboot within a reboot'.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Ted the Summer Surprise? Avengers is that and then some.
Big film being big? Yeah, utter surprise. Avengers was always going to make money it was just a question of how much.
While it's performance is eye opening is hardly shocking is it? If it had bombed then that would have been shocking.
Ted is a $200m+ grossing R rated film from a first time writer/director. In some territories Ted beat ASM (namely in Australia) and will run that film close in the US as well.
As I said, Ted is the surprise this summer season with Magic Mike running second.
Avengers over-shot expectations by about 50% for both its opening and final domestic gross. If you throw away uninformed or crazy predictions (like the guy here on GAF who thought the movie would do $50M opening week and $125M total), I think that the average opening predictions were in the $125-160M range, and the average domestic total predictions were in the $350-425M range.
I doubt many people thought TED was even a lock for $100M domestically a couple months before release. Hell, tracking (and most analysts) were predicting a high 20s/low 30s opening just days before release. Instead the movie opened to almost $55M (beating the opening of Prometheus, and coming pretty close to the openings of Snow White and MIB3) and will probably end up being one of the top 10 box office finishes of 2012 (domestically).
See You Next Wednesday
Banned
Let him have one, it probably means the world to him.
$198M
I think it has the 5th highest 5-day.
EDIT: The movie is about $5.5M behind TDK after five days. I wonder if the Olympics opening ceremony will affect its second Friday. TDKR will need a hefty Friday increase to break $70M this weekend.
Then why is there a TDKR Versus Avengers thread that's run on for hundreds of replies?
Boombloxer
Member
This is on pace to gross the least, isn't it?
demosthenes
Member
Jesus, I hope not.
Definitely domestically. Even if you lump Amazing Spider-man's Tuesday-Thursday gross into that first weekend (giving it a $75M head start), the movie is about $55M behind Spider-Man 3 and $75M behind Spider-man 2 in this point of their runs. Amazing Spider-man will finish $70-80M behind Spider-Man 3 and well over $100M behind Spider-man 2 by the end of its domestic run.
I suppose there is a chance that Amazing Spider-Man will beat Spider-Man 2 worldwide though. Spider-Man 2 finished with $784M and Amazing is at $616M currently with a release in China coming next month. The movie will break $700M without China. Big movies can gross $80-100M in China, and Amazing Spider-man played pretty well in other Asian countries.
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Were you not around a couple months back? It felt nearly like a consensus around here that it was obviously a lock.
Agreed 100% Magic Mike is an amazing return on investment.
vicissitudes
Banned
The ultra-low budget stuff always has an edge on percentage-based returns. Clerks made 100 times its budget even though it only grossed $3.1M.
Paranormal Activity make over 7000 times its budget. domestically The Blair Witch Project made over 2000 times its budget domestically. Those are probably near the top of the all time best returns by percentage list.
All of these (including Magic Mike) ignore advertising and distribution costs, which are usually higher than the production budget of a film when we are looking at stuff that cost under $10M to make and got more than an extremely limited run in theatres. Paranormal Activity may have cost $15k to shoot, but I am sure the ad campaign was at least 8 figures.
vicissitudes
Banned
I forgot about Blair Witch Project, I was thinking of the Saw movies as examples of low-budget movies. Had no idea Paranormal Activity was made for so little (I knew it was low but not that low).
Good point about marketing though.
Good point about marketing though.
JeTmAn81
Member
I would be amazed if they weren't ecstatic about those numbers. Those are huge numbers. Just because you didn't break a billion doesn't mean you failed.
- Status