It's different this time. I don't want to pay for 2 online ecosystems. And I still own a Vita and PS3 so there goes that idea of switching ecosystems. And an XBO purchase is pretty pointless without Gold. You can't do much with it.
I think MS's strategy of putting
EVERYTHING behind a paywall could backfire for the reason you stated. If the PS4 outsells the XB1 as expected, it will be harder for Microsoft to convince those PS4 owners to buy a XB1 later as a second console. Potential buyers will view the cost of owning an Xbox One that isn't a paperweight = <price of console> + <price of Gold>.
Going the other way, the PS4 doesn't have nearly as hard of a sell. If you don't do online gaming, which many people do not, then the PS4 works perfectly well without a PSN+ subscription. That combined with its lower price tag leads me to believe that later in this generation, the PS4 will pick up more use as a secondary console than the other way around for the XB1.
Microsoft wanted to inject the Gold subscription price in front of doing anything with your TV. Ultimately I think they will have to backtrack on that plan. They'll get the hardcore gamers that would by Gold no matter what, but it will be a poison pill for the casual audience that MS so covets.