Can we all agree on one thing?
OPTICAL DISK DRIVES ARE ARCHAIC
The data transfer rate from my understanding is: 92Mb/s-144 Mb/s
Meanwhile you have SD cards that can go up to 1 TB+ with read and write speeds (SD Express 8.0 specifications with PCIE 4.0) up to 4GB/Sec, if they are going to make SD Express 9.0 specifications, i am going to assume double that.
If we want cartridge like experience, then the storage medium HAS to change.
If you want to stick to digital distribution, then the amount storage has to increase also. PS5Pro/PS6 and XsXPro/XsX2 games will be 100GB+ if its gonna be the start of 8K, the current storage capacity despite fast SSD speeds is pathetic.
I don't care how cheap it is to manufacture optical disks, there has to be another solution.
Physical media probably won't go away for 10th gen, but if it sticks around it won't be optical discs like Blu-Ray IMO. I've had an idea for a while that they could just go with small, cheap 128 GB or so microSD cards, that wouldn't even need to be very fast, say 72 MB/s, 90 MB/s or so.
The benefit comes from interfacing the microSD with the decompression I/O; you could store potentially upwards 512 GB worth of data on a single card and decompress it at up to 360 MB/s. Writing to the internal SSD from there is criminally quick compared to copying files from a UHD Blu-Ray to storage; even a 512 GB game would take only about 23 minutes to fully transfer to SSD, and you'd be able to start playing the game way before the file has finished transferring.
You can get a good 128 GB microSD with 60 - 80 MB/s read speeds for $10 or so dollars today. Over time those prices will continue falling, and if companies like Sony and Microsoft get millions of them in bulk, it becomes even cheaper for them. By 10th-gen we should be able to get microSD cards of 128 (or slightly larger) capacities and reads of 80 MB/s (or higher) for roughly the cost of a UHD Blu-Ray ROM disc today. Even if it ends up being slightly more expensive, well game prices seem to be trending upward anyhow so that slight extra cost is baked in, and you get a hell of a lot more performance.
It'd be one of the few things we can thank Nintendo for, given this is essentially what they do now (albeit not quite the same way, both in capacity and speed, let alone lacking any decompression I/O) with the Switch.
EDIT: We also have to consider internet speeds and data caps, globally, that's another reason physical won't go away for 10th-gen. And, very few people are going to have gigabit internet; even if they did the peak theoretical (the actual will be much lower) download speed would be 128 MB/s. Which would be somewhat faster than some of the microSD raw read speeds I posted (even if those are somewhat conservative), however that internet traffic would be going through the southbridge and then processed to be stored on the SSD, then decompressed by the I/O and rewritten back on the drive, if the data was compressed.
Which involves a lot more hops than the microSD, physical-based solution (which would also produce near-theoretical peak speeds much more reliably) and again can eat into data caps (even many of the "unlimited" plans aren't truly that, since they throttle your bandwidth hard after reaching an invisible limit, you simply aren't charged for exceeding that invisible limit), meaning microSD would easily still win out compared to relying on the internet for large game file downloads.
The Series S next will the exact Series X specs.
A new more powerful Series X will come in 5 years.
Yes to the 2nd part, but a bit sooner than 5 years (2024 is my guess). No to the 2nd part; they literally cannot get a refresh with Series X specs @ $299 by the time of a mid-gen refresh.
...Well....kind of. You can do it with something close to that spec in at least some of the GPU aspects, dunno about RAM, storage etc. though (unless Microsoft would want to lose a lot of money on each unit being sold).
Sony has a harder time with just 1 console.
We'll just see a new generation compared to a mid generation refresh.
At the very least they'll have a PS5 Slim, that is pretty much Sony tradition since the PS1 gen (tho PS1's "slim" came at the tail end of its lifespan).
There are some specific reasons they would want to do a PS5 Pro model, tbh, but it depends on a few things i.e what their push for cloud services looks like (Project Spartacus will give us a hint at this), etc.
No.
I very much enjoy when my friends lend me a game they finished and vice versa.
I also don't see how e.g. a USB dongle or similar would be cheaper than an optical disk.
Maybe not by 2024 but by 10th gen they are practically guaranteed to be at least as cheap as UHD Blu-Ray ROMs are now, as long as you stick with realistic size capacities and speeds.
And for that, you will get much more storage (thanks to compression/decompression) and bandwidth (same) than any current or future Blu-Ray or other optical storage spec with a semi-realistic chance of coming to mass market in the next 6-8 years, could ever hope to offer. Basically, what Nintendo is doing currently with Switch cartridges, Sony & Microsoft will standardize as the physical media for 10th-gen systems, and that will help with QoL of those systems.
It's practically inevitable.