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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th

Jomjom

Banned
You really think the xbone will be #1 for this month? I just don't see any way. Just for reference, right now on Amazon, the PS4 (standard and white bundle) are #6 and #13 while the two Bones are #42 and #50, with the $399 being BELOW the $499. I honestly don't think the lower priced SKU will make much of a difference.

I do think Xbone will take June. Was it January's NPD where the Amazon numbers didn't really reflect the overall US sales? In any case it's not always a good indicator. But if I'm wrong and PS4 outsells it by a lot again, then they can worry about it then. I'm just saying that losing May is not really going to be a big deal for MS; it had to be totally expected.
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
How much did a, erm, certain banned unreliable website say each console sold? Just for a frame of reference to how off they could be.

I'm not posting them but they're going to be closer than they have been for months because the forums have been giving the guy who runs the site a hell of a lot of stick.
 
So how bad would XB1 numbers have to be for MS to not give them out?

Not that I think that will be the case this month but I am curious what their lower limit is

Also for a new page

Time until PR roughly starts for NPD

t1402957800z1.png
 

SDCowboy

Member
I do think Xbone will take June. Was it January's NPD where the Amazon numbers didn't really reflect the overall US sales? In any case it's not always a good indicator. But if I'm wrong and PS4 outsells it by a lot again, then they can worry about it then. I'm just saying that losing May is not really going to be a big deal for MS; it had to be totally expected.

While Amazon's rankings may not speak for all of retail, they are a good enough indicator if the two consoles' sales aren't even in the same stratosphere on their site. And the cheaper SKU being ranked below the more expensive one on one of the word's largest retailers, again, is telling. As for January, they were still ranked relatively close.
 

RE_Player

Member
Microsoft knows May will be a weak month for them. I expect a lot of referencing to the "Xbox family of platforms" when discussing sales.
 

mo60

Member
So how bad would XB1 numbers have to be for MS to not give them out?

Not that I think that will be the case this month but I am curious what their lower limit is

Also for a new page

They will be more open than sony was last gen and they will always give out the numbers. I do not think they care about may that much now.
 

hawk2025

Member
My last minute silly perspective:

May's Xbox One numbers will be above expectations for most people, while June's will be below.

People are, in my view, generally overestimating the impact of the $399 model -- both its negative impact in May and its positive impact in June.

We'll know at least part of the story very very soon :p
 

Jomjom

Banned
So how bad would XB1 numbers have to be for MS to not give them out?

Not that I think that will be the case this month but I am curious what their lower limit is

Also for a new page

I think the only way they would stop is when Xbox family and/or software sales in dollars can no longer be touted. Because at that point what would be the point of giving out any numbers if there's absolutely no way to spin it as a positive?
 
How much does this month mean for the Wii U? Even if its still low i'd imagine thats not a horrible sign, since Mario Kart 8 came out on the 30th (?) i think. To me june seems like the more important month for it.
 
How much does this month mean for the Wii U? Even if its still low i'd imagine thats not a horrible sign, since Mario Kart 8 came out on the 30th (?) i think. To me june seems like the more important month for it.

It's only two days...from an interview with Reggie, it seems as if they're really looking forward to how it will affect June.
 

Kiote

Member
Xbox's number will be down from last month, but not fully tanked like people seem to think. Nintendo might still beat them for the month if the quadrupled sales Reggie was talking about are true.

If I were Microsoft, I would be very very worried about those European numbers. If those don't get corrected soon, Europe might become Japan.
 
I think the only way they would stop is when Xbox family and/or software sales in dollars can no longer be touted. Because at that point what would be the point of giving out any numbers if there's absolutely no way to spin it as a positive?

That's an interesting point. With the continued TF and Forza pack-ins combined with Sony's stronger offerings of FTP titles, I wouldn't be surprised if MS kept the software lead for a while. Not to mention that historically Xbox has had greater attach rates last gen anyways
 

Kiote

Member
How much does this month mean for the Wii U? Even if its still low i'd imagine thats not a horrible sign, since Mario Kart 8 came out on the 30th (?) i think. To me june seems like the more important month for it.

Reggie said Mario Kart quadrupled sales. If he meant for the month that means almost 200k. If he meant for the week, it means 75-90k.
 

AniHawk

Member
Xbox's number will be down from last month, but not fully tanked like people seem to think. Nintendo might still beat them for the month if the quadrupled sales Reggie was talking about are true.

two days of sales won't be enough to show substantial results. i think the bulk of mk8's sales will be shown in june, and it might have actually been sustained beyond that launch weekend.
 

Kiote

Member
two days of sales won't be enough to show substantial results. i think the bulk of mk8's sales will be shown in june, and it might have actually been sustained beyond that launch weekend.

Launch day sales can be a Huge spike for something like Mario Kart. There is really no telling how significant it will be. If Microsoft drops below 100k, it's very possible for Nintendo to over take them of Day 1 MarioKart preorders.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
For later, from Piper Jaffray analyst Michael J. Olson:
Michael J. Olson said:
May NPD video game software sales grew +57% y/y. Next gen software sales represented 43% of total industry sales in May, compared to just 22% in April, driven by Watch Dogs (Ubisoft), MLB:14 (Sony), Titanfall, and NBA 2K14.
 
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