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[Aquamarine]

Updated Summary with Shinra's splits for consoles

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

Supposing that this chart is accurate (I'm not implying it is so don't use my commenting on it as proof of anything), these are the results from my May predictions:

[PS4] 235K
[3DS] 90K
[XB1] 70K
[WIU] 85K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 32K

Was pretty spot-on with 3DS, Xbox One, 360, and PS3.

Was somewhat off with PS4 and Wii U. My optimism got the best of me.

I KNEW that Reggie's "4.1x" quote would result in a reduction from my original prediction. Sorry to all of you guys who wanted to keep Wii U above 100K.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Bah I'm like 91,000 units off :\

And won't get the points bonus for correct order because of Wii U

 

[vinnygambini]

I'm doomed

 

[WooHooAlex]

My prediction was pretty good.

[PS4] 187K
[XB1] 93K
[3DS] 100K
[360] 73K
[WIU] 59K
[PS3] 37K

 

[AniHawk]

Updated Summary with Shinra's splits for consoles

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

i was really close on ps4, xbox one, 360, ps3, and 3ds. honestly one of my better months, and then the wii u was a bit off and the vita fucking ruined me. off by 93k.

edit: oh if vita and wii aren't counted, then i was only off by 35k. not bad then.

 

[vinnygambini]

70k units off

 

[Aquamarine]

70k units off

I think that would be a mistake Aqua, your funeral

Spoiler

We shall see who will win the crown

It was a good try, but my 85K Wii U prediction is closer than your 101K Wii U prediction.

I WIN THE CROWN.

 

[vinnygambini]

It was a good try, but my 85K Wii U prediction is closer than your 101K Wii U prediction.

I WIN THE CROWN.

I will eat my crow

 

[SwiftDeath]

I hate you all

Spoiler

I'm probably joking

 

[BananaSprinkles]

[PS4] 237k
[XB1] 105k
[3DS] 89k
[WiU] 86k
[360] 64k
[PS3] 31k

I clearly overestimated the impact of Watch Dogs and Mario Kart 8.

 

[SwiftDeath]

So probably this is final

PS4 ~ 197k
3DS ~ 97k
XB1 ~ 77k
Wii U ~ 61k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

 

[Tripon]

[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 85K
[3DS] 175K
[360] 114K
[WIU] 150K
[PS3] 40K

...I should never, ever try to predict again.

I will likely do so next month as well. lol.

 

[Welfare]

[PS4] 264K
[XB1] 75K
[3DS] 92K
[360] 57K
[WIU] 101K
[PS3] 34K

Was pretty accurate on PS360, but everything else

Pessimism is the best way to go I guess.

 

[prag16]

Off by almost 90k units. Shit. Foolishly raised PS4 from 200 to 220 after Watch Doges opening, and foolishly failed to drop Wii U after Reggie comments. Results in my worst month in awhile.

 

[donny2112]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - May 2014

Units

1. Jonsoncao - 29,000
2. Pillville - 35,000
3. shinra-bansho - 37,000
4. Tratorn - 37,665
5. Chaostar - 40,000
6. TheRealTalker - 41,000
7. AniHawk - 42,000
8. allan-bh - 46,000
9. S┐mon - 47,000
10. WooHooAlex - 48,000
11. MasterSheen - 49,000
11. Mattenth - 49,000
13. Bam Bam Baklava - 50,000
14. kadotsu - 51,000
15. BuzzJive - 52,000
16. Road - 53,000
16. pieatorium - 53,000
18. The Rain King - 54,000
19. RamzaIsCool - 55,000
19. hepburn3d - 55,000
21. Alchemy - 56,000
21. TomShoe - 56,000
23. Angelus Errare - 57,000
24. Graphics Horse - 58,000
24. archnemesis - 58,000
26. The Llama - 59,000
27. GAF_Agg - 59,600
28. ronco2000 - 60,000
29. coldone - 61,000
30. Chobel - 63,000
30. Randolph Freelander - 63,000
32. Exquisik - 64,000
32. panda-zebra - 64,000
32. rokkerkory - 64,000
35. andy_lhc - 65,000
35. michaelius - 65,000
37. GrayDock - 66,000
37. Kelsey - 66,000
37. donny2112 - 66,000
37. noobie - 66,000
41. quetz67 - 67,000
41. strangedopamine - 67,000
43. Delusibeta - 68,000
44. Godzilla's Left Toe - 69,000
45. Bgamer90 - 70,000
46. jayu26 - 71,000
47. Loris146 - 72,000
47. vinnygambini - 72,000
49. Longsword - 73,000
49. Maxxan - 73,000
49. SicSemperTyrannis - 73,000
49. Xenus - 73,000
49. skedar897 - 73,000
54. Da_Bears - 74,000
54. aspiegamer - 74,000
56. ascii42 - 75,000
57. FZZpure - 77,000
57. Hindl - 77,000
57. theprodigy - 77,000
60. Chezzymann - 78,000
60. Heshinsi - 78,000
62. 1st Course - 79,000
62. Dedication Through Light - 79,000
62. Goldmund - 79,000
62. Wynnebeck - 79,000
66. Bruno MB - 80,000
66. SwiftDeath - 80,000
66. Zero-Crescent - 80,000
69. Bundy - 81,000
69. groshkar - 81,000
71. gtj1092 - 82,000
72. Aquamarine - 83,000
72. BrokenIcarus - 83,000
72. doicare - 83,000
72. shwimpy - 83,000
72. smurfx - 83,000
77. Canis lupus - 84,000
77. FDC1 - 84,000
79. CorporateClown - 85,000
79. DrWong - 85,000
79. freefornow - 85,000
79. maquiladora - 85,000
83. Mpl90 - 86,000
83. prag16 - 86,000
85. Brew124 - 87,000
85. Skeff - 87,000
87. Tabular - 89,000
87. Yoda - 89,000
87. shink - 89,000
90. dolemite - 90,000
91. GamerJM - 91,000
92. random25 - 93,000
93. BlackBuzzard - 94,000
93. Gbpackers31 - 94,000
93. jvm - 94,000
93. sjagolinzer - 94,000
97. LicenceToK1ll - 95,000
98. Zok310 - 96,000
99. Jamix012 - 97,000
99. Omotesando - 97,000
101. BeforeU - 98,000
102. BurnMuhBread - 100,000
102. pitseleh - 100,000
104. Yokai - 101,000
104. travisbickle - 101,000
106. Sifl - 102,000
107. CrazedProfessional - 103,000
107. mejin - 103,000
109. SDCowboy - 104,000
110. FourMyle - 104,100
111. Foshy - 105,000
111. Hammer24 - 105,000
113. bakman21 - 107,000
113. fedexpeon - 107,000
115. Asd202 - 108,000
116. Roboleon - 109,000
117. frizby - 111,000
118. BananaSprinkles - 113,000
119. Thunder Monkey - 116,000
119. Welfare - 116,000
119. casmith07 - 116,000
122. StaticJam - 123,000
123. Schattendorfer - 125,000
123. TheHall - 125,000
125. Elios83 - 127,000
125. FullMetaltech - 127,000
127. Lexxus - 128,000
128. ricelord - 129,000
129. Elor_Nocudee - 132,000
130. HI, BILLY MAYS HERE - 133,000
131. Duxxy3 - 134,000
131. KillerMan91 - 134,000
133. Darth Zandatsu - 135,000
133. Final Verdict - 135,000
133. airmangataosenai - 135,000
133. ethomaz - 135,000
137. confuziz - 136,000
138. Megadragon15 - 138,000
139. Shabad - 140,000
140. JinjoUnchained - 142,000
141. Dragonborn - 146,000
142. astrogamer - 149,000
143. Kriken - 153,000
144. GribbleGrunger - 154,000
145. RayMaker - 157,000
146. grimlock442 - 158,000
147. Mass Effect - 159,000
148. Gianni Merryman - 160,000
149. Tsundere - 167,000
150. Dynopia - 173,000
151. FusionCode - 181,000
152. FliXFantatier - 190,000
153. jhmtehgamr20xx - 192,000
154. Relativ9 - 193,000
155. Zeuanimals - 195,000
156. Brad Grenz - 200,000
156. sacrificengineer - 200,000
158. Sharpeye - 208,000
159. MilesTeg - 222,000
160. Tripon - 239,000
161. Prototype Viktor - 241,000
162. robo - 279,000


Points

     May 2014                        Overall 2014 Top (4/5)
01.  Jonsoncao              113.56   Road                   349.14
02.  Pillville              113.29   allan-bh               344.93
03.  Tratorn                112.79   Loris146               344.87
04.  shinra-bansho          110.49   Bruno MB               342.36
05.  panda-zebra            101.86   Canis lupus            342.04
06.  Graphics Horse         101.48   BuzzJive               340.19
07.  Chaostar               101.36   shinra-bansho          340.14
08.  MasterSheen            100.80   prag16                 339.16
09.  Xenus                  100.42   donny2112              338.63
10.  allan-bh                99.68   vinnygambini           338.48
11.  andy_lhc                99.66   doicare                338.07
12.  Maxxan                  99.35   Zero-Crescent          333.95
13.  Angelus Errare          98.97   BlackBuzzard           333.39
14.  FDC1                    98.85   archnemesis            333.33
15.  archnemesis             97.70   Elios83                333.32
16.  TheRealTalker           96.84   Asd202                 332.01
17.  Bundy                   96.66   Graphics Horse         327.07
18.  AniHawk                 96.40   theprodigy             326.65
19.  Goldmund                96.16   jayu26                 326.32
20.  ronco2000               96.13   bakman21               323.93
21.  Da_Bears                96.09   Gbpackers31            321.78
22.  skedar897               95.82   Delusibeta             320.85
23.  Road                    95.28   Maxxan                 320.08
24.  CrazedProfessional      95.20   Chobel                 319.65
25.  strangedopamine         94.92   jvm                    319.03
26.  ricelord                94.71   astrogamer             318.56
27.  Kelsey                  94.51   Randolph Freelander    317.96
28.  RamzaIsCool             94.02   confuziz               317.82
29.  noobie                  93.57   MasterSheen            314.31
30.  Mattenth                93.22   michaelius             314.22
31.  Godzilla's Left Toe     93.19   noobie                 313.74
32.  vinnygambini            93.05   gtj1092                313.53
33.  BuzzJive                92.79   Bgamer90               312.35
34.  donny2112               92.76   SwiftDeath             312.32
35.  Loris146                92.75   Duxxy3                 311.45
36.  Chobel                  92.62   Aquamarine             311.19
37.  DrWong                  92.55   DrWong                 309.86
38.  Bgamer90                92.34   skedar897              309.82
39.  Alchemy                 91.68   CorporateClown         309.26
40.  theprodigy              91.64   RamzaIsCool            308.79
41.  jayu26                  91.64   1st Course             308.31
42.  Bam Bam Baklava         91.37   Hammer24               308.19
43.  SwiftDeath              91.35   Lexxus                 308.10
44.  maquiladora             91.23   sacrificengineer       307.82
45.  Wynnebeck               91.12   Goldmund               305.66
46.  rokkerkory              90.92   andy_lhc               303.65
47.  ascii42                 90.90   Jamix012               303.56
48.  Bruno MB                90.80   Jonsoncao              301.63
49.  prag16                  90.79   S┐mon                  301.50
50.  FZZpure                 90.76   ascii42                301.00

Congratulations, Jonsoncao!


By special request, here are VGC's numbers, for comparison.

VGC predictions:
PS4 - 251K
WIU - 110K
XB1 - 106K
3DS - 92K
360 - 62K
PS3 - 32K

VGC results (if included with the regular listing for May 2014):
Units: #141 @ 146,000 off
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Back in the top ten. Yay.

Congrats, Jonsoncao.

EDIT: And thanks as always donny.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Congrats to Jonsoncao and as always thanks for the hard work Donny

Yes Top 50 for the month and the year so far

 

[random25]

My predictions are a bit off...

In the top 100 for the first try...not bad

 

[hepburn3d]

Updated Summary with Shinra's splits for consoles

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

[PS4] 197K +3k
[XB1] 99K +23k
[3DS] 90K +3k
[360] 60K +3k
[WIU] 70K +10k
[PS3] 50K +14k
[PSV] 27K -29k

Not bad. I should have been more pessimistic with the kinectless XB1 effect. MK8 had a bigger effect in 2 days than I thought (well done Nintendo), PSV is still going stronger than I thought (well played sony).

Good results, till next month!

Edit: I should point out this is against my predictions.

Edit: Thanks donny, really enjoy these threads

 

[AniHawk]

thanks donny

i didn't do so bad after being out of the salesage game for so many years. i don't even recognize anyone else in the top ten.

 

[FDC1]

14th for my first month, not bad.

 

[Xenus]

Top 10 in points and top 50 in units on the first try and I thought I did awful.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

[360] 55K
[3DS] 100K
[PS3] 40K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 80K

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

Man i was off lol . Though I was in the top 50

 

[DrWong]

I'm - again - off for this month.

 

[Foshy]

well i was better than chartzzz at least

 

[Omotesando]

So probably this is final

PS4 ~ 197k
3DS ~ 97k
XB1 ~ 77k
Wii U ~ 61k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

[PS4] 199K
[WIU] 120K
[3DS] 75K
[XB1] 70K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 40K

Wii U, why you keep disapointing me.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 100K
[3DS] 90K
[360] 50K
[WIU] 110K
[PS3] 30K


probably expecting too much of a mk boost but wth

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k


Pretty much Nailed PS4, PS3, 360 and 3DS, but as I suspected I expected too much from MK

Congrats to the winner!

 

[Kysen]

PS3 can kiss 100 million sales goodbye, just pathetic. Weird no one is mentioning similar splits for US/UK on WD. UBI must be feeling pretty good being one of the few pubs seeing huge success on current gen across multiple titles. Dks2 only doing 400k on a rapidly drying up user base isn't good for other last gen only efforts.

 

[Asd202]

Well this month was preety bad for me . Oh well.

 

[Road]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - May 2014

Road - 53,000

Wii U, piece of shit, dead console. It's responsible for 38,000 units of my error, but more importantly, prevented me from getting the ordering bonus.

Thanks, donny2112.

 

[FZZ]

I knew I'd be rusty since I hadn't predicted in awhile but 57? Yeesh.

Hopefully I can get back into it for next month, I plan on sticking to sales age unlike last time.

 

[prag16]

I'll take top 50 in points on my worst month in a long time. Especially since I managed to hang on to 8th for the year somehow.

More than half my error in units was Wii U (fucked up my ordering bonus too). As Aqua (I think) said last week, the Wii U has had the propensity to often underperform even modest (or crappy) expectations during it's lifespan.

Fool me once, shame on Nintendo. Fool me several times, I'm an asshole.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wii U, piece of shit, dead console. It's responsible for 38,000 units of my error, but more importantly, prevented me from getting the ordering bonus.

Sorry Road, this made me laugh a bit.

But I feel your pain, 30K of my 37K unit error is from the Wii U underperforming, and it also ruined my ordering.

EDIT: Oh, can someone remind me if the ordering points bonus is 10pts? If so then with it I'd be in first for the year?

EDIT2: Yup, just checked the point system explanation. Yeah, okay I'm with Road, stupid Wii U.

 

[BlackJace]

Wii U crushing dreams

 

[vinnygambini]

32. vinnygambini 93.05

shit



Thank you Donny again for your time and effort for the community

 

[Lexxism]

Good. I'm still in top 50 overall

 

[jvm]

Thanks donny2112. Congrats to Jonsoncao. Filthy insults to Wii U.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

Well at least I made it into the 60th place or such, but wow shocking that even being 70K away in some puts one so far away from the top spot. Next time.

I think xbox1 got me and wii u :/

 

[panda-zebra]

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k

[PS4] 222K
[3DS] 99K
[XB1] 88K
[WiiU] 77K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 44K
[PSV] 44K

Not bad on order, but over-estimated on everything but 360 and Vita. Pleased for my first go, will have to think more conservatively next time. EDIT: and thanks to donny.

 

[Jonsoncao]

Wow...this is unexpected, first time being at the top in almost 5 years ever since starting participating this game. As I missed April prediction due to a super busy May, and then I just modified donny2112's prediction a tiny bit for this month.

As always, donny2112's work is much appreciated.

 

[donny2112]

wow shocking that even being 70K away in some puts one so far away from the top spot.

It's because the market is so depressed. One console > 100K this month. 70K off would've been a 1st place most any month a few years ago.

then I just modified donny2112's prediction a tiny bit for this month.

:O So, do I get some kind of bonus for this?

Spoiler

Nope.

Thanks all! Glad to see so many enjoying predicting each month!

 

[The Rain King]

Whoop! 18th first time out.

Thanks to donny and well done Jonsoncao!

 

[rokkerkory]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - May 2014

Units
32. rokkerkory - 64,000

Points
46. rokkerkory 90.92

Congratulations, Jonsoncao!
.

Damn ranked 32 and 46 in points respectively.

congrats Jonsoncao!

 

[Loris146]

Third place.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Yes yes stupid Wii U under-performing

Lost me 10 points and 38k units

 

[MasterSheen]

Just outside the Top 10, I'll take it. My predictions actually weren't that bad.

 

[Aquamarine]

By special request, here are VGC's numbers, for comparison.

VGC predictions:
PS4 - 251K
WIU - 110K
XB1 - 106K
3DS - 92K
360 - 62K
PS3 - 32K

VGC results (if included with the regular listing for May 2014):
Units: #141 @ 146,000 off
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts.

I watched the Chartzzz forums blow up over how utterly wrong their "numbers" were this month.

It was quite hilarious to see. #141 on units and #128 on points....my god.

 

[BuzzJive]

Better than last month.

Next month will be a bit tricky with continued Wii U momentum (sounds silly - but there's a twinge of something there with MK8) and the Xbone price drop results.

congrats Jonsoncao!

 

[Pillville]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - May 2014

Units

1. Jonsoncao - 29,000
2. Pillville - 35,000

 

[noobie]

when the next NPD prediction thread will be created? for June 2014 results?