For regular exclusives yes For Halo not so much.
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
For regular exclusives yes For Halo not so much.
Dyson Industries
Banned
Retail only, 1.4-1.5M range. That's all I can share. I don't want my source to get in trouble.
Based on UK numbers I'm going to say that number includes digital.
Edit scratch that
Quick question, do bundle digital codes and LE digital codes get counted as physical sales or digital sales?
Cause maybe when we throw around 20%, 30% digital we don't take a potential inconsistency into account. There is the potential for double-counting or for inaccurate accounting of either physical or digital. At least when it comes to vague PR releases propping up digital.
Cause maybe when we throw around 20%, 30% digital we don't take a potential inconsistency into account. There is the potential for double-counting or for inaccurate accounting of either physical or digital. At least when it comes to vague PR releases propping up digital.
Is this within the 5 days of October, or the first week?
(if you can say, that is)
If only retail is still a good number. 1.5 million x 50% digital = 750,000
1,500,000 + 750,000 = 2,250,000 is nothing to be ashamed about.
Sangetsu-II
Member
We can certainly try at least.
You should get a "I survived Bish polygraph" t-shirt.
I've heard concrete information that Halo 5 launch numbers will be some of the lowest yet. Like 1.4-1.5M low. I'm willing to polygraph with an admin if need be, I've seen how inside information is dealt with here
Say it's ain't so. So low for Halo?
Nightengale
Member
Personally, I expect Tomb Raider to score very well on meta. High 80s, maybe even 90-92. The formula of TR's gameplay loop is well liked, the previews have been very positive, and CD has not been shy to show long footage of the game.
However, even if TR is universally acclaimed, unless it's got that special story hook that TLoU, Gone Home or Bioshock had which had critics/fans constantly talking about the game months and months after it released, I don't expect that it will matter.
NPD doesn't count bundles so doubtful.
Nightengale
Member
It's a mainline Halo game. 2-million-ish is not a bad sales figure, but it's something to definitely be..."concerned" about.
You don't look at a 30-35% sales decline and think that's fine.
Digital is not 50%. I can't believe people are still doing this.
It can still sell 3 million for the month but no doubt this is the lowest opening for the series. and now COD just launched and in over a week Battlefront will have launched.
US without digital. WW is definitely over 2 million first week.4 million is possible by the end of the year for Halo 5, but I predict between 3.0-3.8 million by the end of the year for the game.
Dyson Industries
Banned
Not to whinge, but seeing that particular red name in the inbox made my berries shrivel up a bit.
It would be better than Halo CE (which hit 1 Million in early 2002 if I remember correctly) so technically not the lowest selling entry in the same period. Worse than Halo 2, 3, and 4 though.
3rdamention
Member
Oh, then crisis averted. Carry on
Where do ODST and Reach rank?
I think Reach is one of the best selling ones (at least in the UK).
It is my optimistic percentage to quell dissent.
Reach did well. Similar pace to Halo 3 from what I remember.
I'm thinking Halo 5 sales may end up around what ODST did -- don't remember how well it did though since it wasn't a mainline Halo game.
Primethius
Banned
This is sales-Gaf, we are all realist here. You want to be optimistic then think 30%. 50% is just crazy town.
Thank you for the quick replies.
That consistency is astounding
You didn't even apply the percentage correctly either.
In sales talk, if something were to be sold 50% digital, that applies to total sales. i.e. in your example if 50% of Halo 5 sales were digital, that means it sold 3 million.
Crimson_Gold
Member
That's only in the UK
Maybe. Iirc the past Halo's have had steep MoM drops. Probably due to how front loaded it is. I mean you don't expect to launch at 3m+ and have a normal MoM drop. This Halo may have some legs. But to do it by the end of November it would have to nearly double it's launch week sales. That never happens.
We will never know... =/ but either way, digital this Gen is building momentum. And I would think that MS makes a decent amount more from those digital sales vs the physical sales.
And if digital sales are potentially an additional 500k-1mil...then that's a good launch for MS indeed IMO.
And if digital sales are potentially an additional 500k-1mil...then that's a good launch for MS indeed IMO.
In no way digital sales equaled 1 million. Digital sales may be a tad higher than your normal release for a big game like Halo but some of you are REALLY giving digital too much credit.
500k would be the absolute top end, and almost unrealistic.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
I thought we all agreed that digital sales for Halo 5 are atleast 99% of total sales.
This is why I gave a range.. And I am optimistic as a lot of people are starting to go digital this Gen. And I suspect npd sales next Gen may start to give digital sales more weight.
It should easily be able to pass 3 mill by the end of the year and be maybe 3.5 ish
If we say digital would count for 10%( I think that's the low end but whatever) you'd have 1.65 mill in the US and 150k in the UK for the first week. So that's looking at 1.8 mill from those 2 markets. November has 4 weeks and Black Friday so I think it should do close to a million if not more in November in the US
If we say digital would count for 10%( I think that's the low end but whatever) you'd have 1.65 mill in the US and 150k in the UK for the first week. So that's looking at 1.8 mill from those 2 markets. November has 4 weeks and Black Friday so I think it should do close to a million if not more in November in the US
Sounds realistic. I'm wondering how much CoD and Battlefront are going to effect Halo's numbers by the end of the year, though. Not just in sales, but in community as well.
The general idea behind providing a range is ensuring it's based in reality, however. Otherwise it's useless.
Yup. I think Battlefront at least short term will take some players but longer term people tend to gravitate and stick with COD, and with them releasing so close to each other....we'll just have to see how it goes.
Eh that shouldn't be an issue really. Ito still be in the top 10 most played easily for a while. If anything, I think destiny may get the most hurt from these 3 launching. and I do wonder how much lasting appeal battlefront will have. Like is it something your gonna want to play in February?
COD players were going to play COd regardless of when Halo launched.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Oh my at the Halo 5 numbers, but those are still numbers other games would dream to sell at.
Indeed, Destiny's community is good from what I hear, but all these AAA games releasing right after it will probably do some big damage to it.