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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

kswiston

Member
Well, I don't think we'll be seeing tweets like this about Halo 5:

mJyqNlc.png

When was that tweet posted? I have to imagine that stopped being the case eventually, even though Halo 3 sold a ton of units in the US.
 
Halo 5 :

USA : 935k ( with bundles/without digital ) in 5 days

Uncharted 3 :

USA : 700k ( don't know if there were bundles ) in 25 days

I think is gonna be close.

No.. if anything those numbers show that it won't be close. PS3 had a 700k seller in UC3 when PS3 simply did not move software, even on big exclusives (GT5 excepted). This gen is complete different with the PS4 having a great attach rate which I think is somewhere in the neighborhood of between 3 and 4, I believe. UC4 is also gathering huge hype early on both critically and in the public mindshare. Honestly, I think that UC 4 will be a juggernaut for Sony.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
OEM, everyone did terribly in October. I've been called an MS shill, I've been called a Sony shill. So, apparently I'm an asshole equally to both camps. But really, it wasn't a great month. I guess they did hit the goal of being #1 in October, which is good. But the actual data points are disappointing for everyone. Well, everyone except maybe Yoshi. Like, it wasn't a good month, and to spin it as such is ignoring the bigger picture, don't you think?

So Yoshi actually sold higher than you thought?

In the beginning of the thread, I thought that.
But then we got a general picture of the bottom of the table sales, and the numbers around there seem low
If Yoshi's under 200k, I don't think I'll be impressed anymore.
 
No.. if anything those numbers show that it won't be close. PS3 had a 700k seller in UC3 when PS3 simply did not move software, even on big exclusives (GT5 excepted). This gen is complete different with the PS4 having a great attach rate which I think is somewhere in the neighborhood of between 3 and 4, I believe. UC4 is also gathering huge hupe early on both critically and in the public mindshare. Honestly, I think that UC 4 well be a juggernaut for Sony.
I agree. Uc4 will be Sony's Halo 3.
 

HokieJoe

Member
1. USA just had one of the best job reports ever. While Europe and emerging markets are not doing great, North America, which NPD tracks, is doing great.

2. In these threads we discuss all the factors which decide whether a game does well or not. MS chose to put Halo into the $499 bundle. That was a bad choice, and thus the sales of XBO and Halo were bad.

3. MS conditioned everyone to wait for BF with the firesale they had last year and their heavy holiday season focus, so if that negatively affected Halo, that's their fault as well.



1. Stocks were down today in part because they're worried about retail expectations.

2. Uhh, I'm not arguing that it wasn't a bad idea. MS was trying to make a little back to offset some of the price cuts on they've made IMO. The problem is, the Halo bundle price is too high. A $400 bundle with an off-the-shelf console would've been a better option to sell units.

3. Not arguing that point either way.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
So Yoshi actually sold higher than you thought?

In the beginning of the thread, I thought that.
But then we got a general picture of the bottom of the table sales, and the numbers around there seem low
If Yoshi's under 200k, I don't think I'll be impressed anymore.

Looks like my previous post got buried under console war conversations. Yoshi is clearly under 200K since Destiny bundled = 200K. Yoshi was never going to hit 200K lol. That only went to Smash, Mario Kart 8, Mario Party 10, and Toad in December. Hyrule Warriors was at 190K in its first month, and Yoshi's more of a leggy title if anything. Yoshi's New Island with a hardware bundle on 3DS debuted at 160K.

Requoting my post for reference

Thanks for the responses!

With the Nintendo Direct, I was more wondering how you'll think a game like Twilight Princess HD, localized RPGs (Mario & luigi, DQ7&8, Bravely Second) might sell, etc.

So, Yoshi was only maybe disappointing? Doing some math first....

Some math for folks...

So Destiny TTK w/ bundles ~ 200K
Uncharted Collection w/ bundles = 300K
PS4 sold 275K


That means Destiny + Uncharted without bundles > 225K (if all bundles were one of these 2, then 225K is the least that combo could be unbundled). However, there is the Batman bundle if I'm not mistaken, and likely others (old TLOU remastered bundle?) that I'm likely unaware of.

Destiny + Uncharted > 225K...

and

At least 100K more Uncharted PS4s were sold over Destiny PS4s in order for that to happen. Thus at least 100K Uncharted PS4s had to have been sold total.


-----------------
Now making assumptions....
Assumption 1: 90% of PS4 bundles were either from Uncharted or Destiny TTK bundles (~248K)
Assumption 2: Gap of about 20K between the two titles without bundling
With assumptions - I'd get sales of like 116K for Uncharted and 136K for Destiny.


Yoshi would be in between that, which is about the same as DKC: TF's first month, which seems pretty decent all things things considered (Wii U's plethora of platformers, etc.) and is over twice Kirby's debut earlier this year. I wouldn't really call that disappointing, but obviously this is making assumptions on estimates already. Am I totally off here in my factual math/assumptions?
 

wapplew

Member
No no no, stop comparing UC and Halo, stop falling into that.
This just setting up for another round of fan boy war.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Looks like my previous post got buried under console war conversations. Yoshi is clearly under 200K since Destiny bundled = 200K. Yoshi was never going to hit 200K lol. That only went to Smash, Mario Kart 8, Mario Party 10, and Toad in December. Hyrule Warriors was at 190K in its first month, and Yoshi's more of a leggy title if anything. Yoshi's New Island with a hardware bundle on 3DS debuted at 160K.

Requoting my post for reference

Yeah, saw that after I posted.

Eh, I'm not high on Yoshi anymore.
I assumed the bottom of the table would have higher numbers.
 
Despite MS 'winning' the month I think it has been an incredibly disappointing month for them and a bad sign long term. Their big flagship franchise has basically tanked. At this point I think it's a foregone conclusion that Sony will win the US and WW it will be a crushing defeat.

Im curious what MS's future plans are because things will only get worse. As the PS4 pulls further ahead there is less reason to bother with the xbone, especially of you're going for WW sales. It's going to be a tough few years for MS and unless Sony screw up again I'm not sure how they turn things around. If Nintendo get their shit together things will only get worse.

In terms of halo vs uncharted it's amazing we can even have that discussion. I actually think UC4 will sell more and it wasnt long ago I would have considered even the thought of that nonsensical. I guess thats what happened when you keep releasing critically acclaimed games (versus absolute stinkers that are either broken or basically shit on the fan base).
 

sense

Member
Too soon to say in my opinion. A decent number of people who are looking forward to Uncharted 4 will already have the system -- especially considering its releasing not that far away from the Holiday season (a few months). Sales will (or at least should) be definitely higher than February though.
amazing really that you were arguing with people that said the same thing regarding halo 5 about how everyone that wanted a halo game probably had an xb1 already and how it's the first real new halo game and all that jazz
 

Javin98

Banned
Oh fuck it, gonna accept!
I'm too boring to made bet which i already know to wins, this at least will be funny. xD

Like i said, i'm not very sure, but why not...

So, here the bet:

If PS4 sell more than 2.52 millions in November + December NPD ( What XB1 sold last year ), you win, if not, i win.

Winner will have one week of avatar controll.

Good luck. :D
Hey, can I join in on this bet? I too think the PS4 will sell more than the XB1 did last holiday season (2.52 million). Remember, Star Wars Episode 7 is releasing in December, so Battlefront will likely see another spike in sales around the launch and I expect it to move those PS4 bundles. Anyway, I want in. ;)
 

Bgamer90

Banned
amazing really that you were arguing with people that said the same thing regarding halo 5 about how everyone that wanted a halo game probably had an xb1 already and how it's the first real new halo game and all that jazz

1. I was referring to how Halo 5 (game) would do. I said in many posts that I didn't know how console sales would go. Xbox 360 did a little bit over 500K when Halo 3 released -- a month that wasn't November or December. I wasn't expecting the Xbox One to reach 500K in October due to that.

2. Halo 5 released before the Holiday season. Uncharted 4 is releasing early next year. Therefore the game should help sell a good number of PS4s in November and December. I have no doubt that the game will do well (that was never my original point). I just think that the game's release may not cause a huge boost in PS4 sales if the system does really well this Holiday season.

Definitely expected a "hypocrite!"-post like yours in reply to what I said; Was prepared to give a better explanation so thanks. :)
 

Javin98

Banned
Question for discussion:

Which will have the better NPD launch month: Uncharted 4 or Halo 5?

Worldwide, there is no contest lol
I'm actually going with Uncharted 4. But I think it's too early to tell, really. The 935K figure for Halo 5 includes bundles, so if Uncharted 4 gets a bundle too in March, then it has a better chance of outselling Halo 5. But seeing how Uncharted 3 sold 700K and ND got even more popular among the casuals after TLOU, I think Uncharted 4 has a good chance of opening at 1 million, bundles included, which I'm expecting will be announced after the holidays.

Well, I don't think we'll be seeing tweets like this about Halo 5:

mJyqNlc.png
Poor Greenberg. What's he gonna boast about now?

Edit: ^^ LOL, yeah. Something like that.
 

joecanada

Member
Great debate in here regarding predictions for November NPD.

Amazon Top Sellers is always a good indicator though. Right now, PS4 has 3 different SKUs in the top 20. The highest XB1 SKU is in 27th place.

Yes this past amazon monthly seemed to indicate that there is a gap between top spot and the subsequent ranks. Didn't xboxone have the top and then three ps4 bundles under it? And it ended up being close which makes sense.
 

EGOMON

Member
The biggest mistake Sony did was slashing the price by $50 only they should have went with $100.
I mean PS4 was selling at $400 it is like a car moving at top speed then you apply NOS it won't go faster you already at max speed!
 

Elandyll

Banned
The biggest mistake Sony did was slashing the price by $50 only they should have went with $100.
I mean PS4 was selling at $400 it is like a car moving at top speed then you apply NOS it won't go faster you already at max speed!
Let's wait for Nov results before saying that.

I too used to think they needed to do the $100 cut to maintain momentum, but otoh the PS4 will be widely available at $299 on Black Friday for the most price sensitive buyers.
 

LOCK

Member
The real loser this month is Ubisoft.

AC and........Just Dance.

Let's just say the holidays will decide if one of these franchises is dead or not.
 
The biggest mistake Sony did was slashing the price by $50 only they should have went with $100.
I mean PS4 was selling at $400 it is like a car moving at top speed then you apply NOS it won't go faster you already at max speed!

The only mistake I can see is that they slashed the price but their biggest sellers were a month away. On one hand slashing the price made people want to buy the console more. On the other hand having Call of Duty and Star Wars come out with bundles and deals a month later made people want to wait. Those two forces competed against each other canceling out the impact of the $50 price cut. However I predict that most of the lost sales in October will just shift to November making it a wash. November should just be a huge month in sales.
 
Yes this past amazon monthly seemed to indicate that there is a gap between top spot and the subsequent ranks. Didn't xboxone have the top and then three ps4 bundles under it? And it ended up being close which makes sense.

Here was the Amazon top console spots for October. The thing that makes this harder to understand are the preorders. Three of the PS4 preorders don't get counted until next month. But wait you say...Even not counting those preorders the PS4 still takes the top spot. While that is true, you also have to count XB1 preorders in prior months that now get counted in October. In August the XB1 had a Halo 5 preorder that came in at position #24. That was just barely good enough to push the XB1 console sales ahead of the PS4 for October.

Code:
Amazon Top Consoles 
October 2015
[I](preorders in bold)[/I]

19: PS4 500GB  Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection Bundle
25: XB1 1TB  Halo 5: Guardians Limited Edition Bundle
[B]26: PS4 500GB  Limited Edition Star Wars Battlefront Console[/B]
[B]39: PS4 1TB  Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 Limited Edition Bundle[/B]
49: PS4 500GB  The Last of Us Remastered Bundle
59: PS4 500GB  Destiny: The Taken King Limited Edition Bundle
77: XB1 500GB  Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
[B]89: PS4 500GB  Star Wars Battlefront Bundle[/B]
 

LOCK

Member
CosmicQueso or John Harker can you give a hint about the 3DS in a MOM or YOY % change?

I'm going to guess it is right below 100K or around -30% YOY change.
 
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