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June 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 12th

K

Kill3r7

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Another Data from Aquamarine on VGC:

"So ExtremeBrawler, Ryng_Tolu, jungemann and poklane all want Uncharted 4. Okay, I'll talk about it, then.
So I already said that Overwatch is 423K on consoles (PC also did very well for Overwatch this month considering the physical PC market).
...Well, Uncharted didn't fare nearly as well.
Uncharted is 160K-190K including bundles.....sorry guys. Uncharted games never light up the NPD charts...they're a worldwide IP.
But on the plus side, Uncharted is still on a good place on the Top 10 this month, along with Doom. Their legs didn't just evaporate the instant their launch month was over, which is always a good sign."

- Aquamarine on Gamrconnect / VG Chartz
Click to expand...

You were right about Overwatch selling 400K+ after all. Do we know if Overwatch was number 1 for the month of June?
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Battleborn has to be transitioning to a f2p model as we speak, right? Evolve gained over a million new players overnight. Have to imagine this shift is going to come to Battleborn.
Click to expand...

Much like MMOs that are released as full price sales with subscription fees yet have all the systems in place ready for a F2P transition built in, you sell it retail for as long as you are getting any sales at all, then you flip the switch.
You leave it long enough that anyone who - literally - bought into your original vision of the game aren't upset at the cash they wasted but are glad people are finally playing the game again too.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Kill3r7 said:
You were right about Overwatch selling 400K+ after all. Do we know if Overwatch was number 1 for the month of June?
Click to expand...

Just copy and paste what Aquamarine said:

"Yes, Overwatch was #1 for June, and Doom, and Uncharted 4 were right behind it on the rankings, as was GTA V.

Also, NPD said that Kirby: Planet Robobot was #4 on the physical charts.

Minecraft also did very well this month, buoyed by the release of Minecraft Wii U which did a lot better than I thought it would."

- Aquamarine on GamrConnect/ VG Chartz
 
C

cakely

Member
Microsoft is standing by its decision not to report hardware sales data, but said that more than 1.2 billion hours were played on Xbox One. That’s a platform record and double performance from a year ago.
Click to expand...

Microsoft has one guy on call to make up meaningless statistics on demand.

It makes me long for the days of MAU. That's how far we've fallen.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Just copy and paste what Aquamarine said:

"Yes, Overwatch was #1 for June, and Doom, and Uncharted 4 were right behind it on the rankings, as was GTA V.

Also, NPD said that Kirby: Planet Robobot was #4 on the physical charts.

Minecraft also did very well this month, buoyed by the release of Minecraft Wii U which did a lot better than I thought it would."

- Aquamarine on GamrConnect/ VG Chartz
Click to expand...
Minecraft will not be stopped. Never.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Do we have some guess if BoM for Xbox1 S 500GB is lower than the XboxOne's?
Chance to optimize on parts, but also added functionality.
If it isn't they should hope to keep the price up amd not be caught in the loop of sales
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Mister Megative said:
Eh. Can't be up YoY every month. This is a blip. Things'll pick up.
Click to expand...

Top 3 games this June sold a combined >60% fewer copies than the top 3 last June. That will hurt HW sales. The release slate is just dramatically different this year than last.

Fewer new releases = fewer sales. Just how it goes.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Overwatch is not only selling well, it also must have fantastic player retention rates. I can find a match in seconds any time of the day and very very rarely see the same players. Game is just a massive success.

Not to mention they are probably making crazy bank off of Loot Boxes as well
 
S

sense

Member
Obliterator said:
Overwatch is not only selling well, it also must have fantastic player retention rates. I can find a match in seconds any time of the day and very very rarely see the same players. Game is just a massive success.

Not to mention they are probably making crazy bank off of Loot Boxes as well
Click to expand...

do you think so? i almost find them useless but then again i guess they are like team fortress/dota hats kinda thing.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Anecdotal but my Facebook has been blowing up with links to the news about NES Mini. Lots of people who have never shown even the slightest intrest in modern games seem to be really excited about the idea and expressed intent to buy one as soon as they are available. I really think this has the potential to capture the attention very wide and very profitable market provided they make enough of them.
 
J

Jarod McChicken

Member
No one here or on gamrconnect is interested about Star Ocean 5 performance ? Judging by NeoGAF |OT| and reviews, it was less popular than Tokyo Mirage Sessions, but it would be nice to know how it compares on NPD. Though it was out very late in the month.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Is there any way to get a hint at what the 3DS sold? This is 2 months in a row where we don't know what it did besides it selling less than a certain amount.
 
K

Kanann

Member
Jarod McChicken said:
No one here or on gamrconnect is interested about Star Ocean 5 performance ? Judging by NeoGAF |OT| and reviews, it was less popular than Tokyo Mirage Sessions, but it would be nice to know how it compares on NPD. Though it was out very late in the month.
Click to expand...

I am

and congrat to TMS
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Welfare said:
Is there any way to get a hint at what the 3DS sold? This is 2 months in a row where we don't know what it did besides it selling less than a certain amount.
Click to expand...

Didn't we get a % decline figure that could be extrapolated into an estimate? Or was that revenue and not unit sales?
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
RexNovis said:
Anecdotal but my Facebook has been blowing up with links to the news about NES Mini. Lots of people who have never shown even the slightest intrest in modern games seem to be really excited about the idea and expressed intent to buy one as soon as they are available. I really think this has the potential to capture the attention very wide and very profitable market provided they make enough of them.
Click to expand...

I think that's stronger evidence that the console market has moved away from mass market relevance than that Nintendo are secretly sitting on a big gun, tbh.
 
S

Shin-chan

Member
I'm fairly impressed with TMS sales - isn't that more than it sold in Japan?

Also interested in Star Ocean. I think it's pretty tragic that Square made such a low effort low budget title and hopefully it doesn't mean the death of the franchise (although I suppose it was already dead anyway). I wonder if they will bother porting it to PC after the terrible reception it's received.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
So, looks like even with those insane XBO promotion, and the new Gears of War limited version annunced, 3DS is the best selling SKUs on Amazon US right now.

Can you say Pokémon GO boost?

Cne84JxWYAA72j4.jpg:large
Click to expand...
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
RexNovis said:
Anecdotal but my Facebook has been blowing up with links to the news about NES Mini. Lots of people who have never shown even the slightest intrest in modern games seem to be really excited about the idea and expressed intent to buy one as soon as they are available. I really think this has the potential to capture the attention very wide and very profitable market provided they make enough of them.
Click to expand...
Profit is limited though. It's a 60$-product with no additional revenue in software and subscriptions.
Don't get me wrong, I love this thing and will probably also get one, but it won't set Nintendo's company profits on fire.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Sterok said:
I think there's a decent chance Sun and Moon will be the best selling handheld games in a decade.
Click to expand...

I'll cope paste my prediction about Moon and Sun.

Originally posted in a thread where TBone ( a dear dude :) ) made:


Ryng_Tolu said:
For get a better idea of what Pokémon trend is:

Pokémon Gen 1 = 31.38 million
Pokémon Gen 2 = 23.10 million
Pokémon Gen 3 = 16.22 million
Pokémon Gen 4 = 17.63 million
Pokémon Gen 5 = 15.60 million
Pokémon Gen 6 = 14.70 million [STILL SELLING]

When all is said and done, Pokémon X and Y is gonna sell over 16 million, but under 17 million.

Pokémon XY YOY sales:
2013 = 11.61 million
2014 = 2.09 million
2015 = 0.76 million
2016 = 0.24 million <----- only 3 months (up YOY by 60% compared to the 150k of 2015)

This indeed show that the game isn't as strong as the launch by end of the 1990 years, but since gen 3 the game is pretty stable at 15-18 million.

Remake, as well, always sells a lot.

Pokémon Gen 1 remake = 12.00 million
Pokémon Gen 2 remake = 12.72 million
Pokémon Gen 3 remake = 11.84 million [STILL SELLING]

Pokémon Alpha and Omega will outsell the remakes of Gen 1 and Gen 2 with no problems too.

Pokémon ORAS YOY sales:
2014 = 9.35 million
2015 = 2.11 million
2016 = 0.38 million <--- only 3 months (down YOY by 35% compared to the 590k of 2015)


Now, we definitively talking about one of the bigger series ever, if even remakes can sells so easy over 10 million, and hell, even over 12 million.


Pokémon is selling just a bit worse than what it was usually selling on DS, that's even if we considering that when all is said and done DS will outsell 3DS by 2:1, in others worlds, the attach rate on 3DS is WAY bigger.
This isn't happen with others series, Mario is the best example. And there are even series which did way better on 3DS than on DS (Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem), but that's another story.

What really mean this is that Pokémon as series is still very, very big.

Now, 3DS is not in his gold years, indeed is not selling as good as first years, and we can say that in about 2 years should be death.

This is happen with Pokémon Black and White years ago, and indeed Gen 5 sold worse than Gen 4.


At first, i though this was gonna happen again, for the same reason Pokémon Black/White sold worse than Diamond/Pearl.

Though,we recently saw Pokémon GO... and holy shit. I don't think i should talk much about this, cause we all know the insane success it is. I have no doubt this will boost Pokémon Moon and Sun.

By an huge or small margin? We will see. Anyway, if at first i though Pokémon Moon and Sun was gonna sell worse than X / Y (like said, for the same reasons Black/White sold less than Diamond/Perl), now i expect about the same numbers, or as said, a very little difference...



In conclusion, 20 million will be possible only if Pokémon GO will be super influencing.
Click to expand...

That said, my prediction for Sun and Moon is about 16 million.

For those tiny part of Nintendo fans who still follow NPD, do you agree / disagree with this?
 
A

Apt101

Member
I didn't realize there were so many promotions going for Xbox One. I probably guessed way too low. Oh well, I do amazingly poorly every month anyway, what else is new?
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Ok so, it may be a TOTALLY COINCIDENCE that just after Pokémon GO 3DS and Pokémon started to killing it on Amazon, but so far that's what we looking at...

http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_tab_t_bs#1

HARDWARE

#7 New 3DS Black
#12 New 3DS Red
#19 XBO S: 2TB GoW
#22 PS4: 500gb BO III
#34 XBO: 1TB The Division
#61 XBO: 3 games holidays bundle
#70 PSVita
#73 XBO S 2TB
#87 XBO: Name your game bundle

SOFTWARE

#3 Pokémon Moon + Sun double pack (3DS)
#4 Monster Hunter 4 Generations (3DS)
#15 Pokémon Sun (3DS)
#17 Pokémon Moon (3DS)
#18 Doom (PS4)
#24 Pokémon X (3DS)
#27 Pokémon Omega Ruby (3DS)
#28 Pokémon Alpha Shappire (3DS)
#32 DOOM (XBO)
#35 Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO)
#40 Assassin's Creed: Syndacate (PS4)
#41 Just Dance 2016 (Wii)
#42 Halo 5 (XBO)
#43 MLB The show 16 (PS4)
#44 The Last of Us Remastered (PS4)
#47 Star Wars: Battlefront (XBO)
#48 Ratchet & Clank (PS4)
#50 Assassin's Creed: Syndacate (XBO)
#51 Pokémon Y (3DS)
#52 Hitman (PS4)
#53 Pokémon Yellow (3DS)
#56 The sims 4 (PC)
#57 Uncharted 4 (PS4)
#58 Minecraft (Wii U)
#59 Fallout 4 (XBO)
#60 Smash Bros 3DS (3DS)
#63 NBA 2K16 (XBO)
#66 The legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (3DS)
#67 Uncharted: The nathan Drake collection (PS4)
#68 Star Wars: Battlefront (PS4)
#69 Batman: Arkham Knight (PS4)
#72 Overwatch - Origins Edition (XBO)
#76 GTA V (PS4)
#77 Kirby Planet Robot (3DS)
#79 Far Cry: Primal (PS4)
#80 Fallout 4 (PS4)
#83 GTA V (360)
#84 Raibow Six: Siege (XBO)
#85 Overwatch - Origins Edition (PS4)
#92 Madden NFL 17 (PS4)
#93 Halo: The master chief collection (XBO)
#94 GTA V (XBO)
#96 NBA 2K16 (PS4)
#97 Destiny: The taken King (XBO)
#98 Mario Kart 7 (3DS)
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Ok so, it may be a TOTALLY COINCIDENCE that just after Pokémon GO 3DS and Pokémon started to killing it on Amazon, but so far that's what we looking at...
Click to expand...

I think a combination of new pokemon, price drops and various campaigns throughout the year, the 3DS line are going to pull some surprisingly impressive numbers this holiday.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
LordRaptor said:
I think a combination of new pokemon, price drops and various campaigns throughout the year, the 3DS line are going to pull some surprisingly impressive numbers this holiday.
Click to expand...

It may be this or also the release of Monster Hinter Generations which should sell some nice numbers this month (Montser Hunter 4 Hultimate sold almost 300K first month)...

But i think that at this point is obvius Pokémon GO is doinig his work in this.

This, or really there are no reason for those 3DS and Pokémon boost... and it's not only amazon US, for example looking at the recent UK chart just released, Pokémon Shappire and Rubine are back in TOP 40.
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
But i think that at this point is obvius Pokémon GO is doinig his work in this.
Click to expand...

Yes, pokemon Go is definitely an obvious contributor, but remember this is the 20th anniversary and Nintendo have been promoting pokemon all year long and keeping it in the public consciousness including a superbowl commercial basically just advertising the brand itself back in January.
I'd expect a big push for n3DS Pokemon moon and sun bundles with a price cut for the holidays, as well as a corresponding push for the already cheaper 2DS 'retro' pokemon bundles
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
LordRaptor said:
Yes, pokemon Go is definitely an obvious contributor, but remember this is the 20th anniversary and Nintendo have been promoting pokemon all year long and keeping it in the public consciousness including a superbowl commercial basically just advertising the brand itself back in January.
I'd expect a big push for n3DS Pokemon moon and sun bundles with a price cut for the holidays, as well as a corresponding push for the already cheaper 2DS 'retro' pokemon bundles
Click to expand...

I think Nintendo should make a 2DS bundle with moon or Sun for $49 this Black Friday, and an official $149 3DS pricedrop with some $100/$120 promotion with in bundle Moon and Sun... that's really could be nice.
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
I think Nintendo should make a 2DS bundle with moon or Sun for $49 this Black Friday, and an official $149 3DS pricedrop with some $100/$120 promotion with in bundle Moon and Sun... that's really could be nice.
Click to expand...

I'd imagine $49 2DSs BF deals would be more likely to be the pokemon R/B/Y retro editions; someone buying on nostalgia grounds on brand name alone are not going to be disappointed by retro stylings, and its hard to argue against the first games in the series being a good entry point to the series, but it also leaves additional potential revenue in those customers also picking up a full retail Sun/Moon (or being directed towards the eShop to buy a digital copy) to see 'how things are now'.

Basically I would imagine official Sun/Moon bundles to be for the highest priced SKU (n3DS line) only - I wouldn't be surprised if retailers value add a copy of sun/moon to a different low or mid price tier SKU though. I'd also expect pack in promotional pokemon themed pamphlets pushing any new owners to the eShop, and a corresponding push there for the various titles available digitally / pokemon themed my nintendo rewards / etc
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
I think Nintendo should make a 2DS bundle with moon or Sun for $49 this Black Friday, and an official $149 3DS pricedrop with some $100/$120 promotion with in bundle Moon and Sun... that's really could be nice.
Click to expand...

$49 2DS bundle with a $40 game? lmao there's no way Nintendo does that
 
S

Sterok

Member
If Nintendo is smart (they've been doing better on that front lately, but I'm still not convinced), you should be able to get a 2DS and Sun/Moon for $100. $80 would be ideal, but I don't know how low the 2DS's price can go. A New 3DS and Pokemon for $150 would also do good.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
More data from Aquamarine:

"Physical Software sales fell from $345.5 million in June 2015 NPD to $240.0 million in June 2016 NPD. That's a decline of -30.5%."


"Last June the #1 seller Batman: Arkham Knight sold 1.32 million physical units including digital copies in hardware bundles.

This June the #1 seller Overwatch sold 423K physical copies on consoles and a lot of PC physical sales (considering how dead the PC retail market is, >75K PC physical for a second month release is a lot)."

-Aquamarine on Gamrconnect / VG Chartz

So, this confirm that OverWatch including PC and console is >498k, looks like my +500K prediction was spot on. :D
 
J

jaina

Member
Sterok said:
If Nintendo is smart (they've been doing better on that front lately, but I'm still not convinced), you should be able to get a 2DS and Sun/Moon for $100. $80 would be ideal, but I don't know how low the 2DS's price can go. A New 3DS and Pokemon for $150 would also do good.
Click to expand...
2DS & one of Pokemon ORAS was under $100 last fall. but that's remakes and not a new generation.

I was thinking of the $150 X&Y bundle in 2013
 
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