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Iowa 2008 Caucus Thread
- Thread starter ronito
- Start date
- Status
Rodeo Clown
All aboard! The Love train!
When Ron Paul finishes a distant 3rd, will his supporters leave my internet alone?
kbear
Member
1. ObamaMii said:
2. Edwards
3. Hillary
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
I just can't believe Mike Huckabee has a good chance to represent the Republican party for President. If he wins the nomination, it'll be the biggest massacre in the history of the Presidential elections. Huckabee = glass jaw. There's just so much stuff the Dems can rip him for it's overwhelming.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
hope mah boi Romney takes it and keeps running afterwords in the other primaries. Go Edwards, too. At least if he gets elected, I won't be completely pissed.
Dems:
Obama (turnout will be huge, possible side-deals with Biden/Richardson)
Edwards (leads in second choices)
Clinton
Reps:
Romney (Spending all that money on organization will pull him through)
Huckabee (not organized enough to win)
Paul (They're crazy organized)
McCain (not enough organization to beat Ron Paul)
Thompson (zzzz)
Rudy
Obama (turnout will be huge, possible side-deals with Biden/Richardson)
Edwards (leads in second choices)
Clinton
Reps:
Romney (Spending all that money on organization will pull him through)
Huckabee (not organized enough to win)
Paul (They're crazy organized)
McCain (not enough organization to beat Ron Paul)
Thompson (zzzz)
Rudy
echoshifting
Banned
Wooo, predictions!
D
1. Clinton
2. Obama (will be fucking CLOSE though)
3. Edwards
R
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
Current candidate preference (Top Five):
1. Obama
2. Clinton (but my top 2 flip-flop regularly)
3. Romney
4. McCain
5. Edwards
Pretty stoked! Going to be a hell of a race; I'm glad it is beginning in earnest.
D
1. Clinton
2. Obama (will be fucking CLOSE though)
3. Edwards
R
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
Current candidate preference (Top Five):
1. Obama
2. Clinton (but my top 2 flip-flop regularly)
3. Romney
4. McCain
5. Edwards
Pretty stoked! Going to be a hell of a race; I'm glad it is beginning in earnest.
siamesedreamer
Banned
DEM
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
Obama's margin of victory will be too small to be of any significance.
REP
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
Romney's defeat sets the stage for a nasty weekend of campaigning in New Hampshire.
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
Obama's margin of victory will be too small to be of any significance.
REP
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
Romney's defeat sets the stage for a nasty weekend of campaigning in New Hampshire.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
I thought Clinton was the current favorite in polls in Iowa?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Fuck, too bad the cable is out. I kinda want to head to Buffalo Wild Wings and ask them to turn to MSNBC
1) Hillary
2) Edwards
3) Obamaowned
1) Romney
2) Huck
3) McCain
<15% Ron Paul
1) Hillary
2) Edwards
3) Obamaowned
1) Romney
2) Huck
3) McCain
<15% Ron Paul
WrathOfOtaibah
Banned
I live in Iowa and will be voting tomorrow.
As for who I think will win: Clinton (D), Huckabee (R)
As for who I think will win: Clinton (D), Huckabee (R)
Alright, you want my prediction? here's my prediction:
Tomorrow, a minority of people from the fine state of Iowa, itself a small, unrepresentative state, will go and vote. After having forced the candidates to spend a ridiculous amount of time campaigning in their state (instead of, you know, governing, legislating, etc) and pretending that their parochial interests are far more import than they actually are, these people will exercise a hugely disproportionate influence on the process. Its not really clear why this is the case, but one has to assume its because people from Iowa are really fucking awesome. Or something.
The Democrat will either win because we recognize her last name (howd that turn out last time, America?) or because he makes really pretty speeches about unity.
The Republican will either win because he has a lot of money, because he was mayor of a city that got attacked by terrorists, or because hes an unknown governor from a small state with previously unknown public profile.
Whoever it is, well be blessed with a ton of stories about how they positioned themselves, about how their personal background helped them win, and about how theyre set up for the rest of the horse race. We might get a couple about what positions theyve taken, but almost none of these will be a reasonable, intelligent analysis (that is, more horse race implications!)
Cokie Roberts will probably lead the charge, and some DC schmuck who takes the Metro in to work at 10:00 because he has a sweet government contract and doesnt need to work very hard might even listen and, if hes dumb enough, find it interesting.
Regardless, whoever wins will have an enormous advantage. Maybe the subsequent states will decide to think for themselves, more likely theyll just play along, but either way politicians will be running around, kissing ass, and spending ridiculous amounts of money to look and act like a robot in order to convince people that theyre a leader.
Then people drop out, then somebody wins, and thats when the fun starts.
Thats when we get the months of the gotchas, the Wolf Blitzer special on historical debate faux pas, countless stories on he said this, no I didnt, well I didnt mean it that was in 1893 anyways, fuck you. While were running this very important, very interesting news segment, nobody will take the motherfucking time to look through the countless academic studies that might have been published on a subject, or to make a note of facts tending to tip the scales in one direction or another. After all, we dont want to alienate people, and its so much easier to say well, on the one hand followed by but on the other! and then shrug and go back to checking your hair and your perfect news man voice.
So anyways, we put up with this shit for months, and some people get really passionate about it and even yell at each other. Nobody talks about social security because they dont want to piss off the old people who nothing to do with their free time but vote. Nobody talks about cutting the military budget because they dont want to look like a pussy. Yet they still insist that we can all get puppies and rainbows. And then somebody wins, and if were really lucky, its because a majority of Americans wanted them to.
So the new guy takes the office, and his supporters are really optimistic about everything he can accomplish. This lasts for approximately one day. Soon enough, the rabid parochial nature of the congress will turn the plan for comprehensive energy reform (if it even existed) into the Free money for people who grow corn bill. The education and health care bills probably barely get off the ground. But thats not such a bad deal, because lets be honest if somebody had education and health care reform plans and actually won, they were probably pretty stupid plans anyways.
So maybe we leave Iraq, maybe we dont. Either way, we sure as fuck arent investing in development in Africa. And by virtue of not running any stories about the federal budget, people tend to think we already spend 60% of federal revenues feeding starving children or some other hippie ass shit.
So maybe terrorists find a new base. Or Pakistan blows up. Or robots conquer the earth. Or glaciers melt the fuck out all over everything. Either way, all that exciting ("exciting") domestic reform has to get put to the side for a while, everything goes to hell, lather, rinse, repeat.
So, I guess what I am saying is, I disagree. This is not politics at its best.
Yeah, sorry about that. I think everything that Ive bottled up since I was old enough to vote just broke out.
Tomorrow, a minority of people from the fine state of Iowa, itself a small, unrepresentative state, will go and vote. After having forced the candidates to spend a ridiculous amount of time campaigning in their state (instead of, you know, governing, legislating, etc) and pretending that their parochial interests are far more import than they actually are, these people will exercise a hugely disproportionate influence on the process. Its not really clear why this is the case, but one has to assume its because people from Iowa are really fucking awesome. Or something.
The Democrat will either win because we recognize her last name (howd that turn out last time, America?) or because he makes really pretty speeches about unity.
The Republican will either win because he has a lot of money, because he was mayor of a city that got attacked by terrorists, or because hes an unknown governor from a small state with previously unknown public profile.
Whoever it is, well be blessed with a ton of stories about how they positioned themselves, about how their personal background helped them win, and about how theyre set up for the rest of the horse race. We might get a couple about what positions theyve taken, but almost none of these will be a reasonable, intelligent analysis (that is, more horse race implications!)
Cokie Roberts will probably lead the charge, and some DC schmuck who takes the Metro in to work at 10:00 because he has a sweet government contract and doesnt need to work very hard might even listen and, if hes dumb enough, find it interesting.
Regardless, whoever wins will have an enormous advantage. Maybe the subsequent states will decide to think for themselves, more likely theyll just play along, but either way politicians will be running around, kissing ass, and spending ridiculous amounts of money to look and act like a robot in order to convince people that theyre a leader.
Then people drop out, then somebody wins, and thats when the fun starts.
Thats when we get the months of the gotchas, the Wolf Blitzer special on historical debate faux pas, countless stories on he said this, no I didnt, well I didnt mean it that was in 1893 anyways, fuck you. While were running this very important, very interesting news segment, nobody will take the motherfucking time to look through the countless academic studies that might have been published on a subject, or to make a note of facts tending to tip the scales in one direction or another. After all, we dont want to alienate people, and its so much easier to say well, on the one hand followed by but on the other! and then shrug and go back to checking your hair and your perfect news man voice.
So anyways, we put up with this shit for months, and some people get really passionate about it and even yell at each other. Nobody talks about social security because they dont want to piss off the old people who nothing to do with their free time but vote. Nobody talks about cutting the military budget because they dont want to look like a pussy. Yet they still insist that we can all get puppies and rainbows. And then somebody wins, and if were really lucky, its because a majority of Americans wanted them to.
So the new guy takes the office, and his supporters are really optimistic about everything he can accomplish. This lasts for approximately one day. Soon enough, the rabid parochial nature of the congress will turn the plan for comprehensive energy reform (if it even existed) into the Free money for people who grow corn bill. The education and health care bills probably barely get off the ground. But thats not such a bad deal, because lets be honest if somebody had education and health care reform plans and actually won, they were probably pretty stupid plans anyways.
So maybe we leave Iraq, maybe we dont. Either way, we sure as fuck arent investing in development in Africa. And by virtue of not running any stories about the federal budget, people tend to think we already spend 60% of federal revenues feeding starving children or some other hippie ass shit.
So maybe terrorists find a new base. Or Pakistan blows up. Or robots conquer the earth. Or glaciers melt the fuck out all over everything. Either way, all that exciting ("exciting") domestic reform has to get put to the side for a while, everything goes to hell, lather, rinse, repeat.
So, I guess what I am saying is, I disagree. This is not politics at its best.
Yeah, sorry about that. I think everything that Ive bottled up since I was old enough to vote just broke out.
Better the weather, better Obama does. Worse the weather, better Edwards does.
weather-aside predictions:
Dems:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
Reps:
1. Huckaboo
2. Ron Paul (later recalled because some "poll-terrorist" will be found out stuffing straws)
3. Romney
Weather.com said:
weather-aside predictions:
Dems:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
Reps:
1. Huckaboo
2. Ron Paul (later recalled because some "poll-terrorist" will be found out stuffing straws)
3. Romney
Phoenix
Member
Gruco said:
I wish there was a way that I could notify the forum to alert me to your posts because that was a good one.
For me, the only person in this entire campaign that I TRUST, that I genuinely believe actually BELIEVES can bring about change is Obama. Not really because of what he has said thus far, but from what I have been able to research into the things that he has believed in, and actually fought for. I know that that one thing that America simply doesn't need right now is another damned politician. We need 4 solid years of a visionary trying to move America in the right direction and someone willing to call out the people roadblocking the process on BOTH sides of the political fence.
I'm hoping Obama is that person. I am 110% certain Clinton is not that person.
Why does this nomination thing only happen in a few states instead of all of them?
I'm not fond of the actual American political system itself because there seems to be very little debate of the sort you would see in the British Westminster system. I do however like the nomination process as it provides many candidates holding a number of wide ranging views the opportunity to become elected.
I'm not fond of the actual American political system itself because there seems to be very little debate of the sort you would see in the British Westminster system. I do however like the nomination process as it provides many candidates holding a number of wide ranging views the opportunity to become elected.
Beer Monkey
Member
Phoenix said:
Ultimately the balance between the different branches of government is far more important than who is president.
Democrats:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Republicans:
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Huckabee is a sham. His social conservatism covers up the fact he taxes through the roof, and has a terrible plan for illegal immigration. He even supported state funded tuition for illegals. He is decent on defense issues, but his stance on illegal immigration alone, means he gets no vote from me(and many others who find it to be the most important issue).
Iowa means nothing IMO, other then a little bit of momentum however. If Romney can pull both Iowa and NH he has a good shot at beating Giuliani.
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Republicans:
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Huckabee is a sham. His social conservatism covers up the fact he taxes through the roof, and has a terrible plan for illegal immigration. He even supported state funded tuition for illegals. He is decent on defense issues, but his stance on illegal immigration alone, means he gets no vote from me(and many others who find it to be the most important issue).
Iowa means nothing IMO, other then a little bit of momentum however. If Romney can pull both Iowa and NH he has a good shot at beating Giuliani.
I would be okay with voting for either Obama or Edwards over whoever the GOP trots out (from the current field, none of whom elicit much in the way of positive vibes from me) this time. If they seriously run Hilldawg I will not know what to do, because no matter who wins at that point, I won't be happy.
siamesedreamer
Banned
For Obama to get any momentum out of Iowa, he's gotta win by a large margin. Squeaking by Clinton with a 35-30-25 margin doesn't do anything for him.
IMO, Clinton could lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and still come back to smash Obama on February 5th. I've said before that I think a Clinton resurgency on Super Duper Tuesday could be the story of the primary.
IMO, Clinton could lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and still come back to smash Obama on February 5th. I've said before that I think a Clinton resurgency on Super Duper Tuesday could be the story of the primary.
In the name of Gruco, I dedicate this song to the election:
Out of Hand by
Bad Religion
Don't wanna have to take your shit anymore
i finally concluded that life is way to short
the ticking of the hourglass,
the tiny grains of sand
it beckons me like gravity,
like signposts on the land
and you got what you wanted
without force or reprimand
the seconds are all running out,
this burdens out of hand
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SgnhDZp7qg
Out of Hand by
Bad Religion
Don't wanna have to take your shit anymore
i finally concluded that life is way to short
the ticking of the hourglass,
the tiny grains of sand
it beckons me like gravity,
like signposts on the land
and you got what you wanted
without force or reprimand
the seconds are all running out,
this burdens out of hand
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SgnhDZp7qg
Frank the Great
Banned
predictions:
REP
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Ron Paul
4. John Mccain
5. Thompson
DEM
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
5. Biden
opinion:
as a ron paul/barack obama fan, the best possible scenario tomorrow is for obama to get 1st (which i think will happen) and for ron paul to get 3rd (i dont think hes fairly represented in polls, but a close 3rd is the best he could pull off.) if ron paul getting third in iowa doesnt put him in the media spotlight (like mccain's "surge" is doing for him,) then his supporters are gonna go batshit insane. cant wait.
REP
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Ron Paul
4. John Mccain
5. Thompson
DEM
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
5. Biden
opinion:
as a ron paul/barack obama fan, the best possible scenario tomorrow is for obama to get 1st (which i think will happen) and for ron paul to get 3rd (i dont think hes fairly represented in polls, but a close 3rd is the best he could pull off.) if ron paul getting third in iowa doesnt put him in the media spotlight (like mccain's "surge" is doing for him,) then his supporters are gonna go batshit insane. cant wait.
Obama 35%+
Clinton 29%+
Edwards 27%+
Obama seals the nomination. New Hampshire is virtually tied and the bounce from Iowa will be the nail in the coffin.
On the Republican side, I see Huckabee barely scraping it out over Romney. No way McCain finishes third. I think that's a battle between Paul and Thompson with Paul eeking it out.
As an aside, has anyone else been watching CSPAN's Road to the White House coverage these past few days? Good, good stuff.
Clinton 29%+
Edwards 27%+
Obama seals the nomination. New Hampshire is virtually tied and the bounce from Iowa will be the nail in the coffin.
On the Republican side, I see Huckabee barely scraping it out over Romney. No way McCain finishes third. I think that's a battle between Paul and Thompson with Paul eeking it out.
As an aside, has anyone else been watching CSPAN's Road to the White House coverage these past few days? Good, good stuff.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24241
I don't know. Some of his analysis seems to be flawed, imo. Clinton a stronger organization than Obama? Simply not true. Comparing Obama to Dean? That's a big stretch.
I don't know. Some of his analysis seems to be flawed, imo. Clinton a stronger organization than Obama? Simply not true. Comparing Obama to Dean? That's a big stretch.
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