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Official Feb. 9-10th Primary/Caucus Thread (Obama = Weekend Sweep)

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R

Rur0ni

Member
The Schedule:

feb9thlist.png
feb10thlist.png


Louisiana: 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m
Nebraska: Caucuses start at different times (ranging from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.) depending on the county location.
Washington: Caucus begins at 1:00 p.m.
Maine: Caucuses start at different times (ranging from 1:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) depending on the county location.

*****************************************************************

The Contenders:

Clinton

clintonprofile.jpg


Obama

obamaprofile.jpg


McCain

mccainprofile.jpg


Huckabee

huckabeeprofile.jpg


Paul

paulprofile.jpg


Gravel

gravelprofile.jpg


*************************

The States:

Kansas [Republican Caucus]

kansas.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Republicans: 39

Latest Polling
N/A

Registered Voters
1,646,599 total registered voters -- 26% Democratic, 45% Republican,
27% Independent/unaffiliated

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
2.7 Million

2.3 Million White
225,000 Hispanic/Latino
150,000 Black
60,000 Two or More
55,000 Asian

Largest City:
355,000 Wichita

Education:
955,000 with Beyond High School Education

*************

Louisiana [Primaries]

louisiana.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 20

Latest Polling
N/A

Registered Voters
2,837,985 total registered voters -- 53% Democratic, 25% Republican, 22% Other

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
4.4 Million

2.8 Million White
1.4 Million Black
120,000 Hispanic/Latino
60,000 Asian
50,000 Two or More Races

Largest City:
475,000 New Orleans (67% Black)

Education:
1.2 Million with Beyond High School Education

*************

Nebraska [Democrat Caucus]

nebraska.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 24

Latest Polling
N/A

Registered Voters
1,138,069 total registered voters -- 33% Democratic, 50% Republican, 17% nonpartisan/other

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
1.7 Million

1.5 Million White
120,000 Hispanic
70,000 Black
25,000 Asian

Largest City:
375,000 Omaha

Education:
600,000 with Beyond High School Education

*************

Washington [Caucuses]

washington.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 78
Republicans: 18

Latest Polling
SurveyUSA 2/4/08:
Democrats:
53% Obama
40% Clinton

SurveyUSA 2/8/08
Democrats:
50% Obama
45% Clinton
6% Undecided

SurveyUSA 2/7/08:
Republicans:
32% McCain
31% Romney [Dropped Out]
24% Huckabee
06% Paul

SurveyUSA 2/8/08:
Republicans:
54% McCain
25% Huckabee
11% Paul
10% Undecided

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
6.2 Million

5 Million White
540,000 Hispanic/Latino
400,000 Asian
200,000 Black
200,000 Two or More Races

Largest City:
540,000 Seattle

Education:
2.4 Million with Beyond High School Education

*************

Maine [Democrat Caucus]

maine.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 24

Latest Polling
N/A

Registered Voters
993,748 total registered voters -- 31% Democratic, 28% Republican,
38% Independent/unenrolled, 3% Green

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
1.3 Million

1.25 Million White (97% ?!)
12,000 Hispanic/Latino
12,000 Other
10,000 Asian
9,000 Black

*************

Virgin Islands [Democrat Convention]

virginislands.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 3

Latest Polling
N/A

Total Population 2007 Estimate
108,000
76% Black
13% White
11% Other

Largest City:
19,000 Charlotte Amalie

*************

Notes:
Any errors, just post and I'll fix. Any polling data found, I'll add it. Suggestions? Post em. Virgin Islands? Wat? Also, this can be the official prediction thread I suppose. Try to keep the talk on topic, less clutter [Super Tuesday thread got ugly quick!]

*************

Final Result Update 2/9/08:

Democrats:

Louisiana:
Obama 57% 220,588
Clinton 36% 136,959
100% Reporting
+21 spread

Washington State:
Obama 68% 21,629
Clinton 31% 9,992
96% Reporting
+37 spread

Nebraska:
Obama 68% 25,986
Clinton 32% 12,396
99% Reporting
+36 spread

Virgin Islands:
Obama: 1772 votes (89.9%)
Clinton: 149 votes (7.6%)
??% Reporting
+82.3 spread

Thoughts
First, Nebraska. Not surprised at all there. It is nearly identical to Kansas demographic wise, and the results ended up nearly identical.

Louisiana. Had me worried with reports, but then the exit polling data suggesting the high black vote turn out, knew he had it won, but a 21% blowout.

Washington. Color me surprised, all the reports I heard earlier suggested Clinton had some sort of chance to keep it close. Clearly wrong. 37% spread @ 96% Reporting. Higher than Nebraska at the moment, though Nebraska had a higher turnout. Maybe because there is nothing there :lol

Virgin Islands. Roughly 76% black population in 2000. The population really doesn't change from what I see. In any case, I don't see how anybody could have expected different. Most crushing victory anywhere. Over 80%.

Republicans

Louisiana:
Huckabee 43% 69,665
McCain 42% 67,609
Romney 7% 10,232
Paul 5% 8,595

Kansas:
Huckabee 60% 11,627
McCain 42% 4,587
Paul 11% 2,182
Romney 3% 653

Washington State:
Still processing. McCain ahead by 200 votes @ 87% Reporting.


Thoughts
Wow, Huckasurge confirmed. Really throwing shit in McCain's face. The party is not satisfied. But it's not possible for Huckabee to win even if he won every state here on out. Though I think it's possible to keep McCain short of the needed delegates. We'll see if he drops out, out of respect, or he'll continue to the end to make an honorable finish?

Other Thoughts
Obama completely decimated Clinton tonight. In 4 contests, the lowest margin is a 21 bomb. Also, looking ahead after his speech, Virginia may be littered with the corpses of Clintonistas.

****************

2/10/08 Results Update

Maine
Democrats:
Obama 59% 2,079 (State Delegates)
Clinton 40% 1,396 (State Delegates)
+19 spread

99% Reporting

Thoughts
Amazing. Complete upset of grand proportions. Grand because not only did it upset her, but came with a near 20% spread... when you're projected to win a state, you do not lose by that large a margin. This state went against conventional wisdom up to this point: Large white population, working class, smaller % of higher education. It favored Clinton completely.

Extra Thoughts
Rolling Thunder. The Obama Wave. Tuesday another blowout is expected. Thread will be going up soon tonight.

Extra Extra Thought
Scorched Earth against your own party?
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Dice Man said:
Do the Republican races assign delegates proportionally or winner-take-all?
Click to expand...
Not sure, and I think some of the delegate count is wrong, these sites can't seem to agree on final count.
 
C

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
This thread just won't be the same without Lefty staying up 48 hours straight to spread the good word.
 
R

RiskyChris

Banned
Cooter said:
This thread just won't be the same without Lefty staying up 48 hours straight to spread the good word.
Click to expand...

I'm afraid he's going to go postal when(if?) Obama doesn't get the nom.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Also that comic was posted after Iowa, but before NH. When obama was expected to sweep. Why are you posting it? All it shows is how wrong people were before NH.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
There's not much polling data I can find on Maine. I assume it's Clinton country because I don't think there's any black people there.:p
 
D

deadbeef

Member
Kansas GOP Primary

http://ksgopcaucus.org/process.htm

"The results of the Kansas caucus will dictate which Presidential candidate the delegates from Kansas will support at the Republican National Convention in September 2008. Right now, the Presidential candidates are vying for enough delegates to win the Republican nomination.

In order to win the Kansas delegates, a candidate has to win the majority vote in 2 of the 4 Congressional Districts."


Ahh, screw it, this stuff is so convoluted to try and figure out. I was going to try and figure out the delegate selection process for each state.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Tamanon said:
There's not much polling data I can find on Maine. I assume it's Clinton country because I don't think there's any black people there.:p
Click to expand...
It's noth-east, by default it is clintons to lose thanks to that. And the fact they have a tendency to elect women.
 
R

RiskyChris

Banned
Cheebs said:
Also that comic was posted after Iowa, but before NH. When obama was expected to sweep. Why are you posting it? All it shows is how wrong people were before NH.
Click to expand...

People weren't wrong, they were overconfident which changed the outcome.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
Tamanon said:
There's not much polling data I can find on Maine. I assume it's Clinton country because I don't think there's any black people there.:p
Click to expand...

It's basically Northern New Hampshire.

Lots of old white ladies = Clinton
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Because I only have polling for Washington, I'll make a prediction on that:

Democrat:
Obama should win it. I'm shooting for say, at least 10% (60/40).

Republican:
This is interesting. Romney polled nearly equal to McCain. And Huck is at 24%. Where are Romney's voters going to go? He had just as many as McCain. Will they side with Jesusfreak or the Liberal?

How does everyone like the candidate avatars? I think they picture them well. Clinton the Smug, Obama the Fighter, McCain the Killer, Huckabee the Freak, and... Paul.
 
N

NME

Member
Tamanon said:
There's not much polling data I can find on Maine. I assume it's Clinton country because I don't think there's any black people there.:p
Click to expand...

Not too many black folks in Connecticut from what I understand.

I think the results in Maine will more closely mimic those in Connecticut than those in Massachussetts. Not that I necessarily believe Obama will win (though I think it is not improbable), but I think the results will see him within 5% of Clinton rather than 10% or more removed from her.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Cheebs said:
If Paul is up there gravel should be too. Both have an equal shot at their respective nominations.
Click to expand...
Damn you! I originally was only gonna do Democrats, then didn't want to be biased or something. So I opted to do both Dems and Reps, even though McCain practically has this locked up. Gravel hasn't even won a friggin delegate. He is a failure among men.

Edit: Added.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
NME said:
Not too many black folks in Connecticut from what I understand.

I think the results in Maine will more closely mimic those in Connecticut than those in Massachussetts. Not that I necessarily believe Obama will win (though I think it is not improbable), but I think the results will see him within 5% of Clinton rather than 10% or more removed from her.
Click to expand...
Except Clinton is campaigning there. Obama is not. Obama is not scheduled to visit it. Bill was there already after super tuesday and I believe hillary will be there saturday
 
N

NME

Member
Cheebs said:
Except Clinton is campaigning there. Obama is not. Obama is not scheduled to visit it. Bill was there already after super tuesday and I believe hillary will be there saturday
Click to expand...

Is that right?

So does that mean keeping within 10% of Clinton would be considered a success on some level for Obama?

And what about the fact that Maine is holding a caucus rather than a primary. How much campaigning did Obama and Clinton do in Nevada to yield what wound up being more or less a draw, delegate-wise (if I recall correctly)?
 
E

ElectricBlue187

Member
Obama will probably lose Maine, but it seems like everyone assumes that Maine is just like New Hampshire and I disagree, it's a different breed. I think Obama will get the rest of them
LA = south = obama
Nebraska = midwest = obama
Washington = seattle = obama

if all that turns true, then Clinton and Obama should be in about neck and neck
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Cheebs said:
If Paul is up there gravel should be too. Both have an equal shot at their respective nominations.
Click to expand...

Gravel lost to Edwards in every state. AFTER edwards dropped out.

Paul came in 2nd and 3rd in a few states.


Also, this thread is incomplete without information on the GOP delegate splits. Winner takes all or proportional?
 
N

NME

Member
All I've heard is that the rest of the GOP delegates are proportionally split, thus the idea that it is mathematically impossible for McCain not to win the nomination.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
jamesinclair said:
Gravel lost to Edwards in every state. AFTER edwards dropped out.

Paul came in 2nd and 3rd in a few states.


Also, this thread is incomplete without information on the GOP delegate splits. Winner takes all or proportional?
Click to expand...
they both have a 0% shot at the nomination thus deserve equal recognition or none at all.
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Cheebs said:
they both have a 0% shot at the nomination thus deserve equal recognition or none at all.
Click to expand...
So why are we tracking the Republican candidates at all then? 0% chance of anyone but McCain at this point.

Anyone care to refute this fact?
 
C

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
Look at what we are arguing about without Lefty. We need him back to repeat how low Hillary is on funds for 25 pages.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Cheebs said:
Except Clinton is campaigning there. Obama is not. Obama is not scheduled to visit it. Bill was there already after super tuesday and I believe hillary will be there saturday
Click to expand...

Obama will be at Bangor, Maine tomorrow.
 
H

harSon

Banned
Since the other thread seems to be dead now... do Census results take illegal immigrants into account?

Edit: 2000 Census includes Illegal Immigrants from what I've found
 
D

deadbeef

Member
NME said:
All I've heard is that the rest of the GOP delegates are proportionally split, thus the idea that it is mathematically impossible for McCain not to win the nomination.
Click to expand...

You know, I think you are right. That would explain the process John King was going through on CNN last night showing why it made financial sense for Romney to withdraw. I wonder how long Huckabee is going to hang on?
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Obama's site says he has 910 delegates, MSNBC says 861. Anyone know which is closest to the truth?
Click to expand...
Too lazy to check but CNN has him with a lot less. Looking at their headlines reveals they have a lot more Clinton stories and are probably Clinton biased and just maybe skewing the numbers to alleviate their post-Super Tuesday fears.


yes, I have been possesed by the ghost of lefty420
 
T

Triumph

Banned
suaveric said:
Where are the polls for the remaining states? I can't seem to find anything recent
Click to expand...
All the polling companies are gunshy after NH. The prevailing wisdom, however, has big wins for Obama in Louisiana, Washington and Nebraska (probably in descending order of percentage over Hilary) with Hillary getting a smaller win in Maine.

Also, Ruroni- according to wiki, Washington State has 78 pledged delegates and 19 superdelegates for a total of 97.
 
S

Stoney Mason

Banned
Triumph said:
All the polling companies are gunshy after NH.
Click to expand...


Zogby poll goofs on California

February 8, 2008

Super Tuesday may have lacked a runaway winner in either party, but when it came to anticipating the outcome of both primaries in California, there was one clear loser -- the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll.

"We blew it," pollster John Zogby said.

He pointed out that the polls he supervised got the victors right in six other races Tuesday (impressively, his had Barack Obama winning narrowly in Missouri, unlike other last-minute surveys).

But in California's Democratic face-off, based on interviews conducted Sunday and Monday, the Zogby poll gave Obama 49% of the vote, Hillary Clinton 36%.

The 13-point margin was close to the mark, but there was that little problem of who ended up on top. Although the vote tabulation isn't complete in California (and won't be for days), the count as of now gives Clinton 52%, Obama 42%.

In a news release, Zogby International explained: "It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters" (i.e. far more Latinos, especially older ones, cast ballots than anticipated, and those voters went heavily for Clinton). Also, African American turnout was "overestimated."

What about the GOP race?

The findings in the final Zogby poll: Mitt Romney 40%, John McCain 33%.

The almost-complete actual results: McCain 42%, Romney 34%.

Zogby told us that his staff still is vetting the GOP goof.

"This is not one of our happier moments," Zogby said.
Click to expand...


http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-trailzogby8feb08,1,3386327.story
 
S

Stoney Mason

Banned
The Lamonster said:
Looking at their headlines reveals they have a lot more Clinton stories and are probably Clinton biased and just maybe skewing the numbers to alleviate their post-Super Tuesday fears.
Click to expand...

:lol
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Dahellisdat said:
is that super tuesday thread madness going to start migrating over here?
Click to expand...
Not possible with Lefty not here.

Edit: Adding Population/Education data and splitting delegates.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
The Lamonster said:
Too lazy to check but CNN has him with a lot less. Looking at their headlines reveals they have a lot more Clinton stories and are probably Clinton biased and just maybe skewing the numbers to alleviate their post-Super Tuesday fears.


yes, I have been possesed by the ghost of lefty420
Click to expand...

Hey, and people used to deride the Republicans for calling it Clinton News Network. :p
 
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