• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

August 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

On Demand

Banned
what's this? lol

Yeah how exactly does he/she know this? The rest of that post is filled with assumptions.

C. a lot of people (possibly even a majority) find it ugly and not alluring like the white PS4 that came with Destiny was,

Who exactly is the majority, gaf? Take a look outside this forum and you'll see SW fans love the way it looks. The impressions elsewhere don't mirror here.

Did you also forget that there will be 3 bundles?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Looking at Abdiel's report plus August's Amazon's monthly results and I think we're looking at a close PS4 win.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-08/videogames

#13 500GB Playstation 4 Console - Batman Arkham Knight Bundle

#21 Xbox One Halo 5: Guardians Limited Edition 1TB Bundle (counts towards October 2015 results)

#31 Xbox One Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB Bundle

#33 500GB PlayStation 4 Console - Destiny: The Taken King Limited Edition Bundle (counts toward September 2015 results)

#85 Xbox One Halo: The Master Chief Collection 1TB Bundle

#98 Xbox One Madden NFL 16 1TB Bundle

Today is August 28, so those rankings may change for the final month count.


Monthly change.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-08/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1#1

#14 PS4 Batman
#23 XBO Halo 5
#33 PS4 Destiny TTK
#34 XBO MCC
#68 N3DS
#74 WIU 3DW
#79 XBO 1TB
#96 XBO Madden

Notes: Halo 5 bundle and PS4 destiny don't cont this month.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
The problem is that we have so many XB1 SKUs even OUT of TOP 100... for example, the AC Unity bundle is still selling, is usually in TOP 150 / 200. Now is at #161.
 

Elios83

Member
Amazon looks pretty close as well with so many Xbox One skus (that count) in the top 100.

#14 to #34 for the closest SKUs that will count in August is not close at all on Amazon.
#85 and #98 (for the Madden bundle no less) are so behind that they're not doing significant numbers.

I will make my predictions later but I think that PS4 will have a small lead for the month (15k-25k).
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
#14 to #34 for the closest SKUs that will count in August is not close at all on Amazon.
#85 and #98 (for the Madden bundle no less) are so behind that they're not doing significant numbers.

I will make my predictions later but I think that PS4 will have a small lead for the month (15k-25k).

We don't know. For what we can say, #14 should be higer than 34+85+98, but there is no way for confirmed that.

I also expect PS4 to win but by 5-10k.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I believe these are the games being released at retail for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One this month.

Someone correct me if i'm wrong.

Toy Soldiers: War Chest
Helldivers: Super-Earth Ultimate Edition
Dishonored Definitive Edition
Madden NFL 16
One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3
Until Dawn
Gears of War: Ultimate Edition
Rare Replay
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
This is in the September NPD, and yeah that's everything.

Ah yes, got the EU date and NA date confused.

Anyway, thought i'd throw in that Gears of War for Xbox 360 sold through 3.3 million units at retail according to NPD. This includes the standard edition, collectors edition and all re-releases. It does not includes bundled sales or sales from the Gears of War triple pack.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Amazon looks pretty close as well with so many Xbox One skus (that count) in the top 100.
Actually not even close (for Amazon). The bottom 2 sKUs barely contributed it seems given that the top 20 is disproportionately bigger (generally) than the rest. Below top 50 isn't (again,generally) doing much.
 

Welfare

Member
#14 to #34 for the closest SKUs that will count in August is not close at all on Amazon.
#85 and #98 (for the Madden bundle no less) are so behind that they're not doing significant numbers.

I will make my predictions later but I think that PS4 will have a small lead for the month (15k-25k).

Actually not even close (for Amazon). The bottom 2 sKUs barely contributed it seems given that the top 20 is disproportionately bigger (generally) than the rest. Below top 50 isn't (again,generally) doing much.

I just realised that was Halo 5. All I read was Halo and went straight to MCC. Sorry.

And then it lists MCC right there. I'm sorry.

Don't make posts when you just wake up.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Also Rare Replay releases this month. So I've compiled sales from Rare developed games for Xbox 360. The total cumulative sell through for Rare developed titles reached 1.75 million in the US according to NPD. The titles included in this number are Kameo: Elements of Power, Perfect Dark Zero, Viva Piñata, Viva Piñata: Trouble in Paradise & Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts. Perfect Dark Zero was the best selling Rare game on Xbox 360 with total sales of 670,000 units.

The original Perfect Dark for Nintendo 64 sold over 1.3 million units in the US.

I've left out Kinect Sports etc... for obvious reasons. Although lets just say that Kinect Sports alone outsold the cumulative total of all the games mentioned above.
 
Odd, looking at Amazon in the top 100 there's not ocne piece of hardware hourly for the last 3 days outside the Madden XB bundle. PS4 and Wii U available Sku's all vanished into dust.

I also found these Gamestop charts not sure if they mean anything for the month but they may make the predictions interesting. I organized it buy price so we see only consoles: http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0,1343-4f

Odd the only way to get here is if you type it in.

As for my hardware predictions, I'll have to ask around to make my thoughts complete but for now I'm thinking:

[XB1] 278K
[3DS] 75K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 25K

Mostly assuming Gears has brand pull and Judgement was a outlier. I also think Rare turned a few heads as well for the nostalgic. Especially considering this thread is based on the country Rare's best selling games sold the most, which was on the N64,

*Best selling outside Kinect that is.
 

blakep267

Member
In terms of new releases, Madden and Rare Replay will chart for sure. I'm less certain on Gears and Until Dawn.
I actually think gears charts higher than rare replay. But i don't think it will have amazing numbers. I could see like 200-300k for gears
 

Kill3r7

Member
I actually think gears charts higher than rare replay. But i don't think it will have amazing numbers. I could see like 200-300k for gears

I think that would be a lot for Gears remake considering it came out on August 25th and the reporting period for this months NPD ends on August 29th.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I actually think gears charts higher than rare replay. But i don't think it will have amazing numbers. I could see like 200-300k for gears

It'll actually be interesting to see how this re-release does compared to others. Ultimately though the sales numbers won't mean much. (Unless they're really high, 200k is really high)

Isn't that better than what Judgement did?

When are you going to admit you're doctor professional?
 

ethomaz

Banned
I will wait until next week to make my flawless predictions :p

So far I'm giving a small win for PS4.

PS. I can't see 200-300k for a Gears remake guys... sorry.
 
I think I'm missing the joke here. Anyhow, Judgment sold 425K during its first month of release. It came out on March 19, 2013

Oh ok. That's all I was asking about. I heard sales of the game weren't so high so I thought the opening sales were lower.
 
It'll actually be interesting to see how this re-release does compared to others. Ultimately though the sales numbers won't mean much. (Unless they're really high)



When are you going to admit you're doctor professional?

I thought he did that when he pulled out the Gamestop website charts and Amazon proof of an 28K xbone win.
 
I thought he did that when he pulled out the Gamestop website charts and Amazon proof of an 28K xbone win.

I didn't say anything about Amazon showing an Xbox win. Nor did I say GS was proof. In fact, all I said was there was no hardware at all during hourly of any system, including Xbox systems outside 1 sku. and found that weird. I actually posted below my predictions the reason i made them.

If there was a misunderstanding somewhere I apologize, but as I said, I never said anything about charts making my predictions.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Odd, looking at Amazon in the top 100 there's not ocne piece of hardware hourly for the last 3 days outside the Madden XB bundle. PS4 and Wii U available Sku's all vanished into dust.

There is a Destiny PS4 bundle, it the lowest hardware SKU right now.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Destiny sold through almost 3 million units at retail in the USA across 4 platforms between September 9th and October 31st according to NPD (from Gamestop report, excludes bundles).

Shows CS know's what he's talking about.
 
Amazon Monthly Chart (Final Update)

15) PS4 Arkham
23) XB1 Halo 5 (Doesn't Count)
34) PS4 Destiny (Doesn't Count)
37) XB1 MCC
79) Wii U Deluxe
81) XB1 1TB
98) XB1 Madden
 

gtj1092

Member
Holy shit!
The only XBO SKUs in TOP 100 is the Madden bundle and is at #84!??!?!? o_O

September is going to be a huge PS4 victory if this is the trend.

There are barely any hardware SKUs in the top 100. It's also not even September yet so way more than too early to judge September.
 

donny2112

Member
[PS4] 235K
[XB1] 207K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 44K

Tried to figure out the weekly #s for XB1, and even if it almost doubled the week of the BB deal, it dropping lower than Week 1 for the last two wouldn't be able to overcome a marginal (and reasonable) increase for PS4 over last month. XB1 might've been leading August after 2 weeks, but that wouldn't be enough to take the month, in this scenario.

If 3DS is correct, they'd be up 30% YTD YOY, but it'd be the second-lowest month of all-time for the system. New 3DS non-XL in September is well-timed to try to stem the lagging sales there. (Still waiting on a Fire Emblem n3DSXL personally before upgrading. (^_^) ) WIU just be dangling, waiting to be cut, but if Nintendo combines it with 3DS could be up 10-15% YTD YOY!
 

Welfare

Member
Tried to figure out the weekly #s for XB1, and even if it almost doubled the week of the BB deal, it dropping lower than Week 1 for the last two wouldn't be able to overcome a marginal (and reasonable) increase for PS4 over last month. XB1 might've been leading August after 2 weeks, but that wouldn't be enough to take the month, in this scenario.

Besides the final week of August, I don't see why the PS4 would get any reasonable boosts in weekly numbers compared to July. Last year the PS4 was only 2% MOM in August. Looking at the monthly differences from July to August for home consoles, August has started to become a drop in sales for consoles, or being flat (starting 2012).

My reasoning for an Xbox win this month is basically that the PS4 gradually gets less sales from weeks 1-3 and then jumps a lot in week 4, while the Xbox One drops in week 1, jumps a lot from BB deal in week 2 over the PS4 nationwide, and then with the release of the Madden bundle in week 3, sales from other retailers rise while BB goes to below week 1, and then week 4 gets a boost from the official release of Madden.

So simplified.

W1: PS4 > XB1
The PS4 was already leading from July and nothing happened this week for the Xbox One to get a boost over the PS4. Sales have fallen from the previous week for both.

W2: XB1 > PS4
The Best Buy deal did extremely well for the Xbox One and boosts it above the PS4 for the week as sales for it continue to slow down a bit. Xbox One sales at every other retailer also slow down. I'd say from here the Xbox One has the overall lead for the month.

W3: XB1 > PS4
Now then, BB deal is over and sales fall to below W1 sales for that retailer. However, the Madden 16 bundle released one week ahead of the game at every retailer, and should have a positive effect at every retailer except BB, as they just had that huge deal. While I think W3 sales are below W2, the PS4 would still gradually slow down in sales and the bundle helps the fall of overall XB1 sales for the week.

W4: PS4 > XB1
Nothing much to say here. Release of Madden and Gears will help sales increase for the XB1 from week 3, but the deals for the PS4 are extreme, with M16 being bundled in every PS4 purchase at Gamestop and Amazon, and an extra free game at Walmart, sales must've exploded for the PS4 as well, enough for a win for the week. However, I think with weeks 2 and 3, the XB1 was able to secure a "win" for August while the PS4 was slowing down for the majority of the month.

Final thoughts: August sales for consoles are starting to get lower than July, but thanks to retail deals and bundles earlier in the month, the XB1 is able to avoid this trend for the win.
 
Top Bottom