Fug Slanderson
Member
It's not gonna top Avatar, that's all I know.
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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
- Thread starter 3N16MA
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What do you consider a regular gross for big movies now? This year is a bit of an exception, but I would generally say $1.1B+ is the new standard for big gross (typically that would be good for Top 3-4 of the year). Around the time that Avengers was released it was $1.0B. 10 years ago it was maybe $700-800M. Grosses have gone up, but not that quickly. I think $1.7-$1.8B will be a more realistic regular gross by 2025 unless inflation is higher than typical in coming years/the USD crashes.
If you take away China's gross (since China was completely irrelevant to international gross prior to about 2008), Jurassic World only topped Jurassic Park's overseas gross by 41%, despite market expansion, 22 years of ticket inflation and 3D/IMAX.
The same bump for The Force Awakens over Ep 1 would be $705M overseas outside of China.
Overall, the international market has grown a lot, but we aren't seeing as much growth in the top films.
Leatherface
Member
waiting..
waiting..
The lowest prediction in this thread (I think I saw a $1.1B WW somewhere) will almost certainly be closer than your $4B prediction, even if Star Wars has a crazy overseas run.
It's gonna be front loaded for sure. If the movie is shit the legs will collapse. It's not summer where people have plenty of time to go to the movies, it's gonna be competing with Christmas activities.
Aren't holiday movies usually *less* front-loaded than summer ones? The weeks before and after Christmas are always huge for the box office too.
I would be amazed if it's not the highest grossing movie of 2015. It should be in the top five grossing movies of all time by the end of its run.
When it opens, there's going to be zero competition for weeks afterwards. If its good, people are going to be seeing it over and over again.
That's part of the reason Avatar grossed so much.
When it opens, there's going to be zero competition for weeks afterwards. If its good, people are going to be seeing it over and over again.
That's part of the reason Avatar grossed so much.
Yep. Star Wars has nothing competing with it for like a month and a half. Compare that with summer where a movie might have two maybe three weeks before another major blockbuster comes out.
DOWN
Banned
How do you know?
Opening weekend gross: $160 Mil
Worldwide opening gross: $540 Mil
Domestic gross: $650 Mil
Overseas gross: $1.5 Bil
Worldwide gross: $2.1 Bil
This is generous, but do-able.
Avatar had very little true hype, but succeeded on unprecedented word of mouth not seen since Titanic, and offered a total experience that no other movie in history til then had offered. Star Wars at the end of the day is still Star Wars, even if it's Amazing, it wont exactly be breaking new ground, and thus I don't really see it matching the legs sustained word of mouth (ie: the old lady at the grocery store talking about seeing the movie with her friend) 2 months out.
Worldwide opening gross: $540 Mil
Domestic gross: $650 Mil
Overseas gross: $1.5 Bil
Worldwide gross: $2.1 Bil
This is generous, but do-able.
Avatar had very little true hype, but succeeded on unprecedented word of mouth not seen since Titanic, and offered a total experience that no other movie in history til then had offered. Star Wars at the end of the day is still Star Wars, even if it's Amazing, it wont exactly be breaking new ground, and thus I don't really see it matching the legs sustained word of mouth (ie: the old lady at the grocery store talking about seeing the movie with her friend) 2 months out.
Alright, that's not happening. The reason movies like this (and Avatar, and Avengers 1, and Jurassic World, etc.) do well is novelty. The original cast haven't been on screen in 32 years. There hasn't been a Star Wars movie in ten years. It looks outstanding, something you can't guarantee with the sequels (and spin-offs.) The spin-offs will dilute the brand slightly.
Basically, I'm saying regardless of quality, you're gonna see an Age of Ultron style drop for Episode 8.
MoG EclipsE
Member
OW: 350 M
DOM: 1.5 B
WW: 4.5 B
After seeing what nostalgia did to Jurassic World, it will definitely surpass Avatar by a great deal. It wouldn't surprise me if it did $5B WW.
DOM: 1.5 B
WW: 4.5 B
After seeing what nostalgia did to Jurassic World, it will definitely surpass Avatar by a great deal. It wouldn't surprise me if it did $5B WW.
IdreamofHIME
Member
WW 1 billion 1st weekend without even breaking a sweat.
Tricky I Shadow
Banned
WW - 2.4 Billion.
George Oscar Bluth II
Banned
I've seen some cinemas having it listed at 2 hours and 16 minutes.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
You came back after a month just to laugh at me? I can't blame you but still.
Star Wars has a lot more hype and is more marketable than Avatar.
GTP_Daverytimes
Member
I dont think so, 2 billion regular gross for big movies is too much. Regular gross for such movies is still around 1-1.2 billion. I dont see that rising by 800 million in the next 10 years. Now a lot more movies will pass 1.5 billion (which will probably be the regular gross of big movies by then), and some might pass the 2 billion mark but it wont be a regular gross for blockbusters.
Also, lol at some of the delusional box office numbers in here, 4 billion? Lol. It will be very lucky to pass the 2 billion mark, overtaking Avatar is pretty much out of the question.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I wonder how many of the tickets sold today were people gobbling up a ton of them to try and scalp them later. I remember people trying that with Phantom Menace opening weekend.
Star Wars is less marketable by virtue of it being an existing brand. Preconceived notions and such. Something like Avatar has a potentially limitless audience.
Vulcano's assistant
Banned
20 years ago you needed a movie like Titanic to get middle aged people in masses. Today middle aged people were the teens when star wars came out. I'll say today the rules are different when it comes to have a movie that "even my 60yr mom went to see".
Because Avatar is a movie that rarely happens. The last one? Titanic. One before that? Star Wars. You can't predict those off "hype". You don't get "1.9%, 9.4%, 14.1%" drops week by week off hype. You can't predict that Granny Sarah and Grandpa Joe are in the theater with 3D glasses on to see this movie about blue aliens cat things.
We all know what to expect from Star Wars now. Hype alone doesn't push a film to Avatar numbers. Furious 7 broke all kinds of records and it's still over a billion shy of Avatar. JW came out and slapped haters to the #3 spot (myself included) and is still over a billion behind Avatar and it had to crawl to even get that close. Avatar made over $2 Billion internationally alone. HP never got that close. No SW movie ever got that close. Marvel. Transformers. Jurassic World. Etc. Not even scratching at the back door. This is the "Age of Ultron is going to dethrone Titanic because Marvel is so hot right now" all over again.
There is no formula where Star Wars + "Because Star Wars" = $3 Billion WW. You never saw it from any of the previous movies so assuming it's going to happen now is the definition of insanity. The market hasn't grown enough for that to be the case. Big movies are averaging $1.0-1.2 Billion. The really big ones a bit more. It will sell a lot. And it will most likely be the #3 and possibly #2 movie all time (doubt it) when it's said and done. But it's not beating Avatar.
Nah
0.1.1.2.3.5.8.13.21.34.55
Banned
It's all in jest.
You should know by now that my words are pretty much, always, 99% of the time, empty. I just like banter.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
The Cameron films that killed at the box office didn't just have legs - they also didn't reach peak interest until weeks/months after they'd already opened. There was interest in both of those movies, yes. Avatar and Titanic were both front of mind for large numbers of people, but they didn't become "phenomenons" until weeks into their winter runs.
I don't know that interest in The Force Awakens is ever going to be higher than it is opening night. It may end up with very long legs as word of mouth rolls (depending on whether the film is good or not) but I'm not seeing a scenario where, 2 or 3 weeks into release, interest in the film starts going UP, much less surpassing the point it's currently at.
That's going to be maybe the biggest obstacle towards being the phenomenon it absolutely needs to be to threaten Avatar. It looks like a Summer film built to run like a Summer film, with extended legs due to the fact it's in the Winter. And that's going to ensure it makes an amazing, astounding amount of money.
But unless it can somehow maintain the level of interest it has on opening night for something like a solid month or two, it's not threatening Avatar. Because Avatar didn't really become AVATAR until about a month in. And that's when the stories started rolling in, and the media attention intensified. It didn't really peak on opening weekend. Force Awakens probably will.
I don't know that interest in The Force Awakens is ever going to be higher than it is opening night. It may end up with very long legs as word of mouth rolls (depending on whether the film is good or not) but I'm not seeing a scenario where, 2 or 3 weeks into release, interest in the film starts going UP, much less surpassing the point it's currently at.
That's going to be maybe the biggest obstacle towards being the phenomenon it absolutely needs to be to threaten Avatar. It looks like a Summer film built to run like a Summer film, with extended legs due to the fact it's in the Winter. And that's going to ensure it makes an amazing, astounding amount of money.
But unless it can somehow maintain the level of interest it has on opening night for something like a solid month or two, it's not threatening Avatar. Because Avatar didn't really become AVATAR until about a month in. And that's when the stories started rolling in, and the media attention intensified. It didn't really peak on opening weekend. Force Awakens probably will.
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
I suppose the real question is how many years it will take for the Walt Disney Company to truly control the world economy?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
twelve.
Here're my two cents:
The only way it beats Avatar is by being insanely good, at least ESB level good.
Even if it beats expectations as "better than the prequels" or is better than ROTJ and ANH, it will indeed be difficult to reach Avatar and Titanic levels of gross, mostly because (as others have pointed out) of the novelty factor, I agree. Titanic paved the way for the CGI decade that ultimately culminated in Avatar in 2009 (and took the prequel trilogy down with it), which took it to another level.
The only way TFA gets to be that level of novelty that even grandma and grandpa HAVE to see it, is that it brakes some-sort of barrier in quality. Either it is undoubtably the best SW since the originals or better, or breaks new ground in another way, in a ways we still don't now (a MEGA twist?).
Well, theres a third way... sheer number of movie screens. There are even more markets and screens now than in 2009, and even more ways to charge moviegoers more, so theres that possibility, I guess.
It's not impossible for it to surpass Avatar, but neither is it very probable.
The only way it beats Avatar is by being insanely good, at least ESB level good.
Even if it beats expectations as "better than the prequels" or is better than ROTJ and ANH, it will indeed be difficult to reach Avatar and Titanic levels of gross, mostly because (as others have pointed out) of the novelty factor, I agree. Titanic paved the way for the CGI decade that ultimately culminated in Avatar in 2009 (and took the prequel trilogy down with it), which took it to another level.
The only way TFA gets to be that level of novelty that even grandma and grandpa HAVE to see it, is that it brakes some-sort of barrier in quality. Either it is undoubtably the best SW since the originals or better, or breaks new ground in another way, in a ways we still don't now (a MEGA twist?).
Well, theres a third way... sheer number of movie screens. There are even more markets and screens now than in 2009, and even more ways to charge moviegoers more, so theres that possibility, I guess.
It's not impossible for it to surpass Avatar, but neither is it very probable.
I disagree with that logical leap.
But man, I remember how hyped I was about the telling of Anakin. Now I hate prequels and origin stories of currently existing characters. Perhaps it's because the prequels ruined that for me. When I think back now, Vader's story shouldn't really have been told. I cringe thinking about the plans for the Han solo movie.
Alex_Mexico
Member
All of you saying $3 billion are fucking nuts.
SW Ep7 will make fucktons of money... top 10 ever worth of money but it'll be lucky if it can surpass Titanic as the 2nd highest of all time, let alone Avatar.
My guess? Above Jurassic World. #3 worldwide of all time.
You're willing to bet on it? 'Cause you'll loose.
SW Ep7 will make fucktons of money... top 10 ever worth of money but it'll be lucky if it can surpass Titanic as the 2nd highest of all time, let alone Avatar.
My guess? Above Jurassic World. #3 worldwide of all time.
You're willing to bet on it? 'Cause you'll loose.
OW: $150 mil
WW OW: $500 mil
Domestic gross: $800 mil
OS gross: $1,4 bil
Total: $2,2 bil
All things considered, I don't think it can get OW record in December, but it will crush past December records. If it's not a total pos it has a shot at Avatar domestically (JW was quite close and the two are not comparable), but worldwide best case scenario it will beat Titanic, Avatar is unreachable for now. Definitely 3rd gross of all-time by the time it ends it run, maybe 2nd, only behind Cameron. So, like Phantom Menace.
WW OW: $500 mil
Domestic gross: $800 mil
OS gross: $1,4 bil
Total: $2,2 bil
All things considered, I don't think it can get OW record in December, but it will crush past December records. If it's not a total pos it has a shot at Avatar domestically (JW was quite close and the two are not comparable), but worldwide best case scenario it will beat Titanic, Avatar is unreachable for now. Definitely 3rd gross of all-time by the time it ends it run, maybe 2nd, only behind Cameron. So, like Phantom Menace.
Frostinferno
Member
OW: $220m
WW OW: $580m
DOM: $700m
OS: $1b
WW: $1.7b
This is about as crazy as my predictions are going to go. I'd like to see it somehow breaking 2b, but the international markets are going to have to step it up.
WW OW: $580m
DOM: $700m
OS: $1b
WW: $1.7b
This is about as crazy as my predictions are going to go. I'd like to see it somehow breaking 2b, but the international markets are going to have to step it up.
Your bet is that Star Wars will out gross Avatar worldwide? I'll take that bet.
Ninja Scooter
Member
I think it will do slightly less than Jurassic World
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
If everybody sees it, it still won't catch Avatar. Everybody needs to see it twice. That's where Avatar wins.
All the 'everybody I've spoken to is going to see it' anectotal evidence and sold out prescreenings mean jack shit if it doesn't get crazy repeat business like Avatar.
Avatar still had sold out showings everywhere on its third weekend.
I do think this has a chance of topping Titanic though. I see it joining Cameron in the $2b club.
All the 'everybody I've spoken to is going to see it' anectotal evidence and sold out prescreenings mean jack shit if it doesn't get crazy repeat business like Avatar.
Avatar still had sold out showings everywhere on its third weekend.
I do think this has a chance of topping Titanic though. I see it joining Cameron in the $2b club.
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