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[midramble]

It'll set the domestic OW record, and in winter no less. The domestic nostalgia will make this happen.

As for WW and total BO...

I'm really banking on John Williams and a real space opera giving this legs.

Avatar was a combination of easily digestible emotional plot with effective soundtrack.

I don't know if it'll break foreign box office records but I think it'll come close if not beat the WW bar that was set by Cameron

 

[AxelFoley]

I'd love for it to dethrone Avatar.

I hope it beats the shit outta Avatar.

 

[brandonh83]

being terrible didn't hurt Jurassic World much

This would be an argument if most people didn't like it or if it reviewed badly. It isn't universally considered a bad movie.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Maybe.

Maybe...

 

[Queen of Hunting]

It will break many records

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Highest grossing movie ever. Will gross more than 2 billion.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I hope it beats the shit outta Avatar.

I love this posts--so salt enriched!

<3

 

[Frog-fu]

I think this is fairly reasonable.

Opening weekend gross: 250m
Worldwide opening gross: 550m
Domestic gross: 800m
Overseas gross: 1.3bn
Worldwide gross: 2.1bn

 

[guek]

OW $120M
DOM: $720M
OS: $1.5B
WW: $2.2B


Guys, this isn't gong to beat JW opening weekend in December

 

[BUNTING1243]

OW: 350 million
WW: 3 billion

I'm pretty confident it'll top Jurassic World for opening weekend and Avatar for overall world-wide gross. I can't remember a movie that seems like such a big deal culturally.

Obviously its gonna be a huge money maker but with other movies like Hateful 8,The Revnant,Concussion, Sisters, Daddy's Home, and Micheal Bay's 'Murica movie it questions the legs it will have.

I think it's going to be one of those movies that literally everyone feels compelled to see at least once. I don't think those will even affect it's business a little.

 

[The Lone Courier]

Obviously its gonna be a huge money maker but with other movies like Hateful 8,The Revnant,Concussion, Sisters, Daddy's Home, and Micheal Bay's 'Murica movie it questions the legs it will have.

 

[freenudemacusers]

More important than dollar predictions, lets predict the external forces to be blamed when it doesn't hit titanic numbers.

 

[kswiston]

It is really starting to feel like April/May 1999 again reading some of these posts. Everyone was completely positive that Titanic was going down then as well because Star Wars was Star Wars.

All three of the Star Wars prequels combined only topped Titanic's overseas gross by about $60M, despite being released 2-7 years after. I know people point to the quality of those films, but I think there are more than enough examples of that not mattering overseas.

Nothing other than Avatar has even reached Titanic's initial overseas gross (just shy of $1.25B) in the past 18 years. We are just getting to the point now that a few films are creeping up on that number with the explosion of Latin America/Asia, 3D/IMAX, and close to 20 years of ticket inflation. Avatar is another $750M above Titanic's original gross.

Furious 7 set records all over the place in the markets that are actually seeing growth today. Star Wars would have to beat that by close to 75% to hit Avatar overseas.

 

[cyberheater]

I've done it. I've booked 4 tickets for the IMAX at 10am on Sunday morning. I'm fucking stoked as fuck.

 

[Insane Metal]

OW: 280M
OG: 550M
DG: 1.9B
OSG: 2B
WW: somewhere around 4B

OW $120M
DOM: $720M
OS: $1.5B
WW: $2.2B


Guys, this isn't gong to beat JW opening weekend in December

Quoting for posterity. hohoho

 

[freenudemacusers]

Oh man reading through the pages.. thread is gonna be a great New Years bump

 

[AxelFoley]

No one is questioning that this movie will hit like a bomb. The question is if it'll have legs - and that depends largly on it that people are willing to watch it more than once in cinema.

Bruh, it's Star Wars. Millions of nerds will definitely go see it more than once. Hell, I might even do it, which is something I've only done 2 or 3 times in my life.

 

[BumRush]

OW = 255 million

WW = 1.7 billion

I'm right around here as well...a little less for U.S. OW.

My GOD at avatar though...

 

[Konka]

It is really starting to feel like April/May 1999 again reading some of these posts. Everyone was completely positive that Titanic was going down then as well because Star Wars was Star Wars.

All three of the Star Wars prequels combined only topped Titanic's overseas gross by about $60M, despite being released 2-7 years after. I know people point to the quality of those films, but I think there are more than enough examples of that not mattering overseas.

Nothing other than Avatar has even reached Titanic's initial overseas gross (just shy of $1.25B) in the past 18 years. We are just getting to the point now that a few films are creeping up on that number with the explosion of Latin America/Asia, 3D/IMAX, and close to 20 years of ticket inflation. Avatar is another $750M above Titanic's original gross.

Furious 7 set records all over the place in the markets that are actually seeing growth today. Star Wars would have to beat that by close to 75% to hit Avatar overseas.

It's crazy season. Predictions based on nothing but emotion and nostalgia.

 

[Leatherface]

4 billion WW gross. No problem.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Pulling some fuzzy math numbers out of my ass, let's get nuts.

110M opening day and a completely absurd 282M domestic opening weekend that has zero chance of happening in reality.

 

[Verendus]

OW = 255 million

WW = 1.7 billion

3 billie


easyyyyyyyyyyy

I'm legitimately starting to think this movie has a shot of going Cameron-tier

Count as high as possible......now add a zero to the end of that.

OW = 350 million
WW = 3 billion

OW: $290m
WW OW: $800m
DOM: $800m
OS: $2b
WW: $2.8b

I don't know anything about numbers but I'm pretty sure it'll break all the records. I don't even like Star Wars and I'm thinking about going.

It will probably make more than warranted based on the quality of the film, which is true of most of the top grossing films of all time.

OW - $550M WW $275M - Domestic

Total $2.25B WW $1B Domestic.

OW: 210 mil
WW OW: 560 mil
DOM: 700mil
OS: 1.3 bil (not a record)
WW: 2 bil (not a record)

BOOK IT

Opening weekend gross - $120 M

Domestic gross - $900 M

Worldwide gross - $3.6 B


Yes, I have high expectations for this movie.

OW: 265 million.

My local theater is showing the movie for 24 hours all that week.

OW: $250 million

Its going to top Avatar.

I'm going to project a little low, but I still think I may be too high:

OW: 150
WWOW: 480
DOM: 550
OS: 1800
WW: 2350

If it doesn't clear 3 billion WW, I'll eat cat food.

I'm pretty sure that OW will be pretty close to, if not top $300M, if the Fandango pre-sale snafus are anything to go by.

If I had to guess overall, I'd say:

OW: $300M
WW OW: $625M
DOM: $850M
OS: $2.2B
WW: ~$3.2B

(Personally, I don't care about the movie myself, but tons of my coworkers are hyped and have tickets preordered, even if the process was a little painful.)

Easily 3 billion world wide. This movie will break/ shatter every record.... Only to be outdone by Episode 8 and 9.

If reviews are great I think it will beat everything but Avatar. Are they doing 3D, IMAX, whatever shit too? If so, it beats Avatar as well.

I'm going to watch it like 3-4 times in theater most likely. I've never done that before, so, whatever that means.

WW: 2.79b

WW 2.8 Billion

I say it will reach Avatar. It will be a little above it or a little below it.

I never saw marketing like this for Avatar. I work at a grocery supermarket and I'm amazed at all the food products with star wars on them.

If the movie is good, then it will surpass Avatar numbers. If the movie is bad it will fall just below avatar numbers. But this marketing is huge man.

If the movie is amazing with good word of mouth, 2bill.

Opening weekend: 255mil.

OW: $215,000,000
WW OW: $650,000,000
DOM: $1,500,000,000
OS: $2,500,000,000
WW: $4,000,000,000

boom

It will be the biggest grossing movie of all time.

OW: $235M
WW OW: $560M
DOM: $720M
OS: $1.8B
WW: $2.5B

OW: $248,866,490
WW OW: $634,390,000
DOM: $850,415,475
OS: $2,966,237,500
WW: $3,816,652,975

ow: $310m
ww ow: $720m
dom: $850m
os: $2.5bn
ww: $3.35bn

Every single person on the planet will see this movie.

Don't care about OW.
Worldwide total of 3.5 Billion.

WWOW I have no idea....If JW made 524mil then I'm gonna say TFA will make 600-750. Which would be monstrous, insane...but...

As for total WW...I feel like Avatar was proverbial lightning in a bottle with the advent of 3D...but in less than 24 hours the BFI Imax has sold the vast majority of it's first week tickets, almost all of the first two days are completely sold out and websites continue to stutter...

I'm thinking $2billion at least, but it could easily break 3billion usd.

I think it will destroy Avatar.

Dat Star Warz brand is a class killer.

Opening weekend gross: 300m
Worldwide opening gross: 750m
Domestic gross: 900m
Overseas gross: 2.8 b
Worldwide gross: over 3b

Been saying it's gonna be big. Having the movie sold out opening weekend two months beforehand means they can put it on every screen and it would still sell out.

Unfortunate because I want to go see it that weekend and I am expecting no way to see it.

WW ~ 2.9B

3 Bill WW

OW: 220,000,000
WW OW: 600,000,000
OS: 2,300,000,000
WW: 3,000,000,000

:O

1 billion domestic - easy

OW: $350,000,000
WW OW: $700,000,000
DOM: $1.2B
WW: $3B

A bit liberal, but this is gonna be massive.

Opening weekend gross: $278,000,000
Worldwide opening gross: $660,000,000
Domestic gross: $780,000,000
Overseas gross: $2,609,000,000
Worldwide gross: $3,389,000,000

It'll set the domestic OW record, and in winter no less. The domestic nostalgia will make this happen.

As for WW and total BO...

I'm really banking on John Williams and a real space opera giving this legs.

Avatar was a combination of easily digestible emotional plot with effective soundtrack.

I don't know if it'll break foreign box office records but I think it'll come close if not beat the WW bar that was set by Cameron

I hope it beats the shit outta Avatar.

Highest grossing movie ever. Will gross more than 2 billion.

OW: 350 million
WW: 3 billion

I'm pretty confident it'll top Jurassic World for opening weekend and Avatar for overall world-wide gross. I can't remember a movie that seems like such a big deal culturally

OW: 280M
OG: 550M
DG: 1.9B
OSG: 2B
WW: somewhere around 4B



Quoting for posterity. hohoho

4 billion WW gross. No problem.

 

[bananafactory]

Pretty much.

It will comfortably secure #3 all time but won't touch Avatar or Titanic. Simply won't have the legs for that.

 

[MC_Hify]

I'll bid $1, Bob.

 

[kswiston]

OW: 280M
OG: 550M
DG: 1.9B
OSG: 2B
WW: somewhere around 4B



Quoting for posterity. hohoho

You just predicted $1.9B domestic, so even if he is being conservative, you have set yourself up to eat a larger plate of crow, even if the film breaks Avatar records.

EDIT: Even the overestimated "adjusted for inflation" numbers for Gone with the Wind aren't near the $1.9B mark, and that enjoyed 50 years of regular re-releases after an initial run of 4 years. The Force Awakens will be on DVD within 9 months tops.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

I'd say 2.3 WW an outside shot at beating Avatar. But only being Phantom Menace bad would keep it from #2 or 3 IMO

OW: 280M
OG: 550M
DG: 1.9B
OSG: 2B
WW: somewhere around 4B



Quoting for posterity. hohoho

4 billion WW gross. No problem.

-_-

 

[Jigorath]

Again, Avatar isn't Star Wars. Avatar's success was based on word of mouth. On the other hand, Stars Wars is among the most valuable franchises in modern media. That's gonna help front-load it.

You're the one who brought out the nonsensical Avatar comparison.

Avatar came out in December.

OW record ain't happening in December. The Hobbit had huge hype behind it and it didn't even break 100m.

 

[BumRush]

Are people saying 4B being serious or no? I mean 1.5-1.7 is reasonable but 4?

 

[Nesotenso]

I don't think it is going to be big overseas. Avatar was an event film because of the 3-D factor. It will earn a lot of money. Might beat Avengers or Jurassic World. Titanic and Avatar will likely be out of reach.

 

[Jarmel]

Holiday openers don't open to hundreds of millions of dollars. Have some perspective:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm

This will. No question. None.

 

[Razorback]

Gettoutahere with it's gonna beat Avatar

My parents never go to the movies and they saw Avatar. They're not even going to consider watching Star Wars 7. The thought will not even cross their minds.

Opening US. 210 million

Worldwide Overall: $2.1 billion

 

[FZZ]

Are people saying 4B being serious or no? I mean 1.5-1.7 is reasonable but 4?

They saw the presale ticket thread and are now consumed by hype and nostalgia.

It's like how it is for gaming, but with movies.

 

[wachie]

Opening weekend gross: 215M
Worldwide opening gross: 625M
Domestic gross: 725M
Overseas gross: 1.25B
Worldwide gross: 2B

 

[Konka]

Are people saying 4B being serious or no? I mean 1.5-1.7 is reasonable but 4?

They drank the kool-aid.

 

[Senoculum]

I don't think Star Wars will beat JW's opening weekend. I'm thinking it'll open with 158 million dollars. As for ultimate box office revenue, it's totally up in the air. But somewhere between 1.5-2 billion. No way it's touching Avatar, Avatar had the benefit of the financial crisis to skew the book value.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Honestly I will be shocked if it ends up doing way higher than the past movies even when their numbers are adjusted for inflation.

 

[uncelestial]

OW = 255 million

WW = 1.7 billion

I have never seen nor heard of a 2-month-in-advance total sellout of a movie that took place in a few hours like that and crashed ticketing websites, ever. I don't think it'll be too much more than this, actually, but more.

 

[Ray Wonder]

If it does 4b WW I quit

 

[Leatherface]

We'll see who gets the last laugh GAF!

:'(

 

[Verendus]

It's okay, Leatherface.

My shoulders are big and broad enough to console all of you.

 

[cloud_sleep]

We'll see who gets the last laugh GAF!

:'(

James Cameron, most likely.

 

[kswiston]

OW record ain't happening in December. The Hobbit had huge hype and it didn't even break 100m.

I said back when AoU released that Star Wars would make more than $30M off of Thursday previews. I know some of Box Office GAF disagreed at the time, but the strength of presales seem to be pointing in that direction. I think that first Friday will top Avengers/JW/AoU, even though it's December. The remainder of the weekend is a bit up in the air though. A snow storm on the east coast could easily shave off $20-30M on Sat/Sun.

Regardless, the Hobbit's record will be decimated. I think I went with $180M for Star Wars' first weekend in the GAF winter box office game. I wouldn't be that surprised to see the film top that.

 

[Jarmel]

I can see it beating Jurassic World if the weather is good but $200+? Come on guys.

 

[Hero_of_the_Day]

If it does 4b WW I quit

LOL. Four billion is an absolutely beyond insane estimate. Like, anyone who is being serious about that is fucking clueless. I will give handjobs to every member of GAF if it reaches 4 billion.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

It is really starting to feel like April/May 1999 again reading some of these posts. Everyone was completely positive that Titanic was going down then as well because Star Wars was Star Wars.

All three of the Star Wars prequels combined only topped Titanic's overseas gross by about $60M, despite being released 2-7 years after. I know people point to the quality of those films, but I think there are more than enough examples of that not mattering overseas.

Nothing other than Avatar has even reached Titanic's initial overseas gross (just shy of $1.25B) in the past 18 years. We are just getting to the point now that a few films are creeping up on that number with the explosion of Latin America/Asia, 3D/IMAX, and close to 20 years of ticket inflation. Avatar is another $750M above Titanic's original gross.

Furious 7 set records all over the place in the markets that are actually seeing growth today. Star Wars would have to beat that by close to 75% to hit Avatar overseas.

Finally, someone who knows what they are talking about. <3 you, kswiston!

Everyone else, feel free to carry on with the outlandish predictions.

 

[Insane Metal]

Are people saying 4B being serious or no? I mean 1.5-1.7 is reasonable but 4?

Of course I'm serious.

Spoiler

seriously, son?

Edit: come on, almost 2B domestic should've given it away, lol.

Honest estimate for WW: 2,5B. This time seriously.

 

[Ray Wonder]

I'm bookmarking this post, and if it does like 2.5 billion I'm gonna come back and say something really good and mean.

 

[AxelFoley]

I love this posts--so salt enriched!

<3

Avatar fanboy, I presume?

 

[Jigorath]

Regardless, the Hobbit's record will be decimated. I think I went with $180M for Star Wars' first weekend in the GAF winter box office game. I wouldn't be that surprised to see the film top that.

Oh sure, I was just using Hobbit as an example since it didn't come close to breaking any OW records besides the December one despite the legacy behind the franchise.

 

[3N16MA]

There is no point in bringing up Avatar or The Hobbit OW gross as a way to prove December will limit FA. FA will crush those numbers and will make a run for the OW crown. Yes, even in December.