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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction

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Vestal

Vestal

Gold Member
It just topped biggest presale ever 8x over.

Now consider that the movie was Mocking Jay and it sold out 2k screens..(per some googling by another user in the main thread regarding pre-sale)


HOLY SHIT
 
T

TheKeyPit

Banned
3N16MA said:
Opening weekend gross
Worldwide opening gross
Domestic gross
Overseas gross
Worldwide gross

You can predict every category or choose whichever ones you want.

Here are the current records for each category.

OW: Jurassic World $208,806,270
WW OW: Jurassic World $524,400,000
DOM: Avatar: $760,507,625
OS: Avatar $2,027,457,462
WW: Avatar $2,787,965,087
Click to expand...

OW: 220,000,000
WW OW: 600,000,000
OS: 2,300,000,000
WW: 3,000,000,000

:O
 
L

Lego Boss

Member
jett said:
Hahah yeah this is something I've noticed already. :p The hype machine is about to blow.
Click to expand...

I'm not really hyped for this film, but it seems as if the rest of the universe wants it in their veins quicker than a Russian junkie needs crocodyl.

You've got to remember that the marketing on this is so ginormous as to be distasteful. As soon as the fanboys are out of the way, Disney will be hitting the kids full force 10. It's going to carry well into late winter, maybe early spring?

Frozen was still being shown at the cinema after it had been released on DVD. The dark prince knows how to milk that franchise baby.
 
S

sunshine and gasoline

Banned
Discotheque said:
lmao to think this will beat avatar is a delusion tbh. the best you can hope for is maybe titanic and that would be really impressive.
Click to expand...

If the movie is a great movie it isn't too far-fetched to believe that it may surpass Titanic. Star Wars are a passionate bunch and are bound to give it multiple rewatches...I probably will watch it at least three times if it is as half as good as say Mad Max Fury Road. Given the size of the fandom? Yeah, it isn't hard to see this touching/surpassing Titanic's box office. Avatar certainly seems like a far-fetched dream but miracles can happen.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
I can see it topping JW domestic gross and getting close if not topping Avatar. Avatar's OS gross is another thing and that is where I think it falls short.

That battle will be with Titanic not Avatar WW.
 
K

kswiston

Member
cyberheater said:
My local IMAX is already fully booked for all shows on release day. I don't remember that happening with Avatar.
Click to expand...

Online ticket ordering was barely a thing in 2009. Hell, Imax in 2009 was a fraction of what it was today.

3N16MA said:
I can see it topping JW domestic gross and getting close if not topping Avatar. Avatar's OS gross is another thing and that is where I think it falls short.

That battle will be with Titanic not Avatar WW.
Click to expand...

Even Titanic will be very hard overseas, unless we are discounting the re-release money. Furious 7 was the third highest grossing film of all time overseas, and it is still over $400M short of Titanic.
 
C

Charles Foster Kane

Rosebud
kswiston said:
Where people in this thread are really going crazy is the overseas predictions. You can't just look at Avatar and decide because Star Wars is Star Wars, it will top that no problem internationally.

1) Star Wars was never the biggest film of all time overseas. The most comparable release, (Episode 1) was a big international film, but it grossed less than half of Titanic overseas, and was behind both Jurassic Park and Independence Day (despite benefiting from a few years of ticket inflation).

2) Foreign currencies are in the shitter. The Euro was 25% higher when Avatar was released than it is today vs the USD. The AUD was 25% higher, the Japanese Yen was over 30% higher (plus the Japanese have been turning towards their own movies more in recent years), the GBP was slightly higher (5-10%).

All of this means that Star Wars would have to gross what was the equivalent of about $400M USD overseas more than Avatar in early 2010 foreign currencies just to tie Avatar today. Ignoring the fact that Star Wars would have to see its overseas gross quadruple over what the franchise was previously earning, despite no large 1990s/2000s franchise doing that.

It is conceivable that a really well reviewed Star Wars film that captures the movie going zeitgeist this Winter could take the domestic crown. I don't think it is probable, but I wouldn't be that surprised. Jurassic World came within $100M domestic of Avatar, and it wasn't even that good. Episode 1 adjusts to close to $700M. Sequels in the series has been in that range before (adjusted), even if we don't count re-release money or the novelty of the first film. Overseas has no chance of topping Avatar IMO.
Click to expand...

Quoting for new page.

Second point is very important. Force Awakens would have to be a truly massive hit to top Avatar WW.
 
M.W.

M.W.

Member
What if it's just an average movie? Maybe 60% RT and ok word of mouth? That surely would effect the BO.

It could be a stinker, folks. You never know.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
kswiston said:
Online ticket ordering was barely a thing in 2009. Hell, Imax in 2009 was a fraction of what it was today.



Even Titanic will be very hard overseas, unless we are discounting the re-release money. Furious 7 was the third highest grossing film of all time overseas, and it is still over $400M short of Titanic.
Click to expand...

I was speaking more about the WW total. FA will be gunning for #2 (Titanic) not #1. I think its domestic total has potential to make up for some of its OS loss if it can't touch Titanic.
 
cyberheater

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Marcellus Wallace said:
What if it's just an average movie? Maybe 60% RT and ok word of mouth? That surely would effect the BO.

It could be a stinker, folks. You never know.
Click to expand...

It could be but I really much doubt it.

/Remembers the good vibe on seeing the Episode 1 trailers. What a steaming pile of shite that turned out to be. Fuck.....
 
Vestal

Vestal

Gold Member
kswiston said:
Common Sense, unless you think that Star Wars is going to gross $2B domestic.
Click to expand...

I was referring to having Avatar legs ergo not being completely frontloaded. I mean offcourse its going to make a good chunk of change in OW, but I think it will have legs enough to at least triple opening weekend over the course of its run.
 
near

near

Gold Member
Realistically as much as I'd love to see Avatar dethroned, it's not going to happen, unless this turns out to be extraordinarily great with legs. I think this will do more numbers than Jurassic World in terms of WW sales though. People forget how many records Phantom Menace broke when it released, and judging by the marketing direction they're heading with The Force Awakens I would not be surprised if it surpassed Titanic in terms of domestic sales. It will be interesting to see how this turns out, but I realistically cannot see this passing 1.6B.
 
T

Trey

Member
The economy will crash when this movie releases. Disney will finally own our souls as legal tender. The dark ones will wise again and destroy any infidel who doesn't complete their daily regiment of three rewatches of episode vii. All media will become Star Wars EU, as the amount of money this film will generate will subsume all ip rights of anything, ever.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
near said:
Realistically as much as I'd love to see Avatar dethroned, it's not going to happen, unless this turns out to be extraordinarily great with legs. I think this will do more numbers than Jurassic World in terms of WW sales though. People forget how many records Phantom Menace broke when it released, and judging by the marketing direction they're heading with The Force Awakens I would not be surprised if it surpassed Titanic in terms of domestic sales. It will be interesting to see how this turns out, but I realistically cannot see this passing 1.6B.
Click to expand...

If you think it will top JW then it has to do more than 1.6B WW. JW is at 1.66B.
 
S

SephCast

Brotherhood of Shipley's
Opening weekend gross: $278,000,000
Worldwide opening gross: $660,000,000
Domestic gross: $780,000,000
Overseas gross: $2,609,000,000
Worldwide gross: $3,389,000,000
 
L

Lego Boss

Member
OK, just a couple of observations: although Avatar remains far and away the highest grossing film, around 50% of the highest grossing films of all time have hit the top 10 in the past couple of years (JW? That really is a turn-up).

Currency prices ARE in the shitter, but the average cost of a cinema ticket is some kind of cosmic joke, with a premium on A-List films, premiums on weekend showings (weekend = Thursday evening to Sunday midnight), extra cost for 3D, hiring glasses etc.

These are all hidden costs that means when you take the the family to the cinema it's costing the best part of 50 quid (even before you eat the sugar and salt dispensed from the Candy King's rectal passage.

It's amazing what the chains can figure into watching a film these days. If it's a perfect storm, there's no reason why FA can't take 3 Bil worldwide, especially if the Chinese buy into it (special guest appearance by Vin Diesel anyone)?!
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
I don't know why anyone is talking about OW records like they mean shit anymore. The OW record seems to be getting broken nearly every month and in some cases by a huge margin. The fact that the previous best opening in Decembet was 85 million or whatever in no way precludes star wars from having a monster opening.

Im not saying it will actually break JW's record for OW but I also don't think it's impossible. I think those expecting the avatar record to go down let alone easily are in for a rude shock. Exchange rates alone make that near impossible, if avatar released this year it wouldn't go near 2.7 billion. Titanic is a more realistic goal and even that would be amazing.
 
K

KingBroly

Banned
I predict it will make an assload of money.

You can all congratulate me when someone says it exactly like that in a newspaper, blog or on TV, etc.
 
near

near

Gold Member
3N16MA said:
If you think it will top JW then it has to do more than 1.6B WW. JW is at 1.66B.
Click to expand...

I don't think it will shatter JW, I'm anticipating it to do roughly the same figures but just a little bit more. So perhaps 1.7B maybe.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
I still think Avatar keeps it crown due to its OS gross.

That being said I would have no problem watching FA pull off some crazy run. I am anticipating this much more than I ever did Avatar.
 
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