More important than dollar predictions, lets predict the external forces to be blamed when it doesn't hit titanic numbers.
Seriously.
I fully expect something like the "heatwave in Japan" thing that happened over at Gaming side.
It is really starting to feel like April/May 1999 again reading some of these posts. Everyone was completely positive that Titanic was going down then as well because Star Wars was Star Wars.
All three of the Star Wars prequels combined only topped Titanic's overseas gross by about $60M, despite being released 2-7 years after. I know people point to the quality of those films, but I think there are more than enough examples of that not mattering overseas.
Nothing other than Avatar has even reached Titanic's initial overseas gross (just shy of $1.25B) in the past 18 years. We are just getting to the point now that a few films are creeping up on that number with the explosion of Latin America/Asia, 3D/IMAX, and close to 20 years of ticket inflation. Avatar is another $750M above Titanic's original gross.
Furious 7 set records all over the place in the markets that are actually seeing growth today. Star Wars would have to beat that by close to 75% to hit Avatar overseas.
Do mind that LatAm as a whole is on economic downturn, all of the currencies have become notably weaker since the start of the year (or when F7 was on, even), so even if it matched F7 insane attendance numbers in the region, it'll make far less money overall in the region.
OW: 280M
OG: 550M
DG: 1.9B
OSG: 2B
WW: somewhere around 4B
Quoting for posterity. hohoho
His prediction is far, far more accurate than yours.
Thanks for doing this, saved me from quoting all the insanity in the thread.
No one is going to like my opinion but I think it may do fine in US domestic, but WW has shown they do not smile favorably on darker hued main protagonists.. Not to mention everybody and their mama can do special effects and CGI now which was a large part of the original Star Wars magic. Don't get me wrong, it will still do well.
My prediction.. 205-OW WW-1.1B
Yeah, they sure don't, I mean, the movie with these guys below *bombed* WW amirite?
I heard on the TV here last night (Australia), that they sold $1000000 worth of tickets in the hours AFTER the latest trailer.
It's gonna be big.
$1M AUD or USD?
Because Avatar is a movie that rarely happens. The last one? Titanic. One before that? Star Wars. You can't predict those off "hype". You don't get "1.9%, 9.4%, 14.1%" drops week by week off hype. You can't predict that Granny Sarah and Grandpa Joe are in the theater with 3D glasses on to see this movie about blue aliens cat things.
We all know what to expect from Star Wars now. Hype alone doesn't push a film to Avatar numbers. Furious 7 broke all kinds of records and it's still over a billion shy of Avatar. JW came out and slapped haters to the #3 spot (myself included) and is still over a billion behind Avatar and it had to crawl to even get that close. Avatar made over $2 Billion internationally alone. HP never got that close. No SW movie ever got that close. Marvel. Transformers. Jurassic World. Etc. Not even scratching at the back door. This is the "Age of Ultron is going to dethrone Titanic because Marvel is so hot right now" all over again.
There is no formula where Star Wars + "Because Star Wars" = $3 Billion WW. You never saw it from any of the previous movies so assuming it's going to happen now is the definition of insanity. The market hasn't grown enough for that to be the case. Big movies are averaging $1.0-1.2 Billion. The really big ones a bit more. It will sell a lot. And it will most likely be the #3 and possibly #2 movie all time (doubt it) when it's said and done. But it's not beating Avatar.
Nah
I'd argue that Jurassic Park is the one before Titanic, at least WW.
Agreed on everything else.
The Cameron films that killed at the box office didn't just have legs - they also didn't reach peak interest until weeks/months after they'd already opened. There was interest in both of those movies, yes. Avatar and Titanic were both front of mind for large numbers of people, but they didn't become "phenomenons" until weeks into their winter runs.
I don't know that interest in The Force Awakens is ever going to be higher than it is opening night. It may end up with very long legs as word of mouth rolls (depending on whether the film is good or not) but I'm not seeing a scenario where, 2 or 3 weeks into release, interest in the film starts going UP, much less surpassing the point it's currently at.
That's going to be maybe the biggest obstacle towards being the phenomenon it absolutely needs to be to threaten Avatar. It looks like a Summer film built to run like a Summer film, with extended legs due to the fact it's in the Winter. And that's going to ensure it makes an amazing, astounding amount of money.
But unless it can somehow maintain the level of interest it has on opening night for something like a solid month or two, it's not threatening Avatar. Because Avatar didn't really become AVATAR until about a month in. And that's when the stories started rolling in, and the media attention intensified. It didn't really peak on opening weekend. Force Awakens probably will.
Such an accurate observation, I'm quoting it so more people see it
OW: $150 mil
WW OW: $500 mil
Domestic gross: $800 mil
OS gross: $1,4 bil
Total: $2,2 bil
All things considered, I don't think it can get OW record in December, but it will crush past December records. If it's not a total pos it has a shot at Avatar domestically (JW was quite close and the two are not comparable), but worldwide best case scenario it will beat Titanic, Avatar is unreachable for now. Definitely 3rd gross of all-time by the time it ends it run, maybe 2nd, only behind Cameron. So, like Phantom Menace.
JW was not "close", it's $9M short of passing Titanic (which it won't), and about $110M away from Avatar.
Let's not even talk about the OS difference.
It wont beat Jurassic World :sorry:
If everybody sees it, it still won't catch Avatar. Everybody needs to see it twice. That's where Avatar wins.
All the 'everybody I've spoken to is going to see it' anectotal evidence and sold out prescreenings mean jack shit if it doesn't get crazy repeat business like Avatar.
Avatar still had sold out showings everywhere on its third weekend.
I do think this has a chance of topping Titanic though. I see it joining Cameron in the $2b club.
More like five times
People really forgot how big Avatar did worldwide. That will not happen again. The movie can top Titanic though and grab the #2 slot though if everything lines up perfectly.
I have been holding at around 650-685 domestic and 1.5-1.6 billion worldwide. I am starting to feel like leaning towards 750 domestic and 2-2.2 billion worldwide....but I do not want to allow myself to go there just yet, I don't want my own hype for this film to cloud my prediction.
I remember the thread of Marvel fanboys acting like idiots proclaiming MCU has toppled Star Wars and Ultron will do 300 mil opening weekend when everyone in their right mind knew joe public did not care about Ultron to the extent they think they did. I do not want to go do the same but with Star Wars. So am sticking with my original prediction.
Not only was Avatar huge worldwide, it also had the benefit of several currencies being quite strong at the time compared to the US dollar, which is not the case right now.
If TPM was as well received as it was hyped it would have had better legs than it did and would have taken down Titanic.
Not that I think TFA will take down Avatar. It won't.
Even if it had better legs, it wouldn't have topped Titanic. It might've been the first movie to cross $1b WW, but that's about it.
Box office on neogaf tends to be focused more on the US which doesn't really show just how big of a phenomenon avatar was. I was going through the Australian box office numbers the other day and it's just mind boggling. Avatar has essentially grossed twice as much as the nearest competitor. It's hard to see anything coming remotely close to that.
The people predicting star wars will dethrone avatar are basically acting like its 1999 again. We have predictions as high as 4-5 billion WW in this thread, even by 1999 levels of hype that's just crazy.
Avatar truly was a WW phenomenon like no other.
I always did find a bit funny though how it wasn't exactly big in my corner of the world though, it's not even in the top 10 either by gross or tickets sold here XD
What is this talk about summer? I don't know if there's something I'm missing but I don't get why it's important.
About the appeal, dinos sure have appeal for kids. But Star Wars has appeal for kids, young and old people.
It won't beat Avatar, but Im' sure as hell will beat JW.
No school and vacations means more free time and more likely to go to the cinema.
People think that Decenber represents some insane barrier that will stop people from seeing the movie. Even though avatar and titanic were both released in this month.
If people want to see this movie. Nothing will stop them. Star Wars is an event. Not just another movie.
Snow and awful weather will.
I wonder what made Gone with the Wind the most successful movie of all time. There was no CGI back then or spectacular practical effects ala Alien of Jurassic Park.
Well, it was on for several years, never mind the several rereleases it got.
