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[The Artisan]

It was.

In December we'll see the StarWars effect.

you mean the nostalgia effect? similar to how jurassic world blew up. not saying the film wasn't gonna be huge, hell I liked it a lot more than I thought I would, but no jurassic park film ever did that well. the first film counts as a billion because they rereleased it in 3D or some shit. but I don't think it's fair to count that since it is a rerun compared to other films that grossed that high with their run.

but anyways, no star wars film's ever grossed over a billion either (besides that one that got a rerelease) so it's a lot of it is nostalgia, bro.

 

[R-User!]

It will make:

Domestic:
OW: 266 million
Total: BB8 million

Worldwide:
OW Worldwide: 666 million
End of run: 2.1 billion

All Time Combined:
3.28 billion.

*Iris Out*

*Roll Credits*






Order 66


BB8 (bee doo woo woo)


More of Order 66 (cackling continues)


"Lawyer" Larry Parker's 2.1 Million Commercial


Hallway 328


*lights comeup*

 

[Senoculum]

If the movie is good it will top $3 billion worldwide. i.e. it will be the highest grossing movie of all time.

If it's merely decent it will come in around $2 billion based on marketing, hype, and brand recognition alone.

The Avengers arguably has a better hold on the international markets; and it garnered mostly positive reviews.

The sequel made 1.4 billion.

The 501st can have up to a thousand person turnaround in some events while in the US. In China, they had a parade comprised of 100 fans - from over 9 countries. Star Wars just isn't popular in most of the world. This is especially true in developing countries (Latin America, most of Asia, the Middle East), who cumulatively can account to 30-40% of box office receipts.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Disney is going to push hard in China, already doing stunts like this: http://www.theguardian.com/film/201...h-on-great-wall-of-china-in-epic-disney-event

The Avengers arguably has a better hold on the international markets; and it garnered mostly positive reviews.

The sequel made 1.4 billion.

The 501st can have up to a thousand person turnaround in some events while in the US. In China, they had a parade comprised of 100 fans - from over 9 countries. Star Wars just isn't popular in most of the world. This is especially true in developing countries, who cumulatively can account to 30-40% of box office receipts.

As a member of the 501st, not sure what you are trying to get at or what event we are seeing a thousand person turn around at. If you are talking about member attendance, then yea that doesn't happen, even at huge events like NYCC or such, we only see at most a couple hundred show up. Celebration is the largest gathering and that was as big ever seen in the club for most members in one place. The attendance of celebration in Europe was a fraction of that, yet SW is doing fine over there.

The amount of costumers in a club has no relevance to popularity of a franchise.

 

[Mushroomer25]

Opening Weekend - $250M. However, this could go higher if Disney can get the film on more screens. Currently the record for widest opening is Twilight: Eclipse at 4,468 screens. I think Star Wars could easily bump that up to 4,500 - if not a round 5,000. It has zero comparable competition in the weeks prior, or against it. Every screening is practically a guaranteed sell-out show. Theater owners would be crazy to turn it down. If Disney can secure 5,000+ screens for TFA, I think it could comfortably make $275M.
Domestic Gross - $775M. It is going to be a tight race against Avatar. Unlike that film, TFA is coming in an era where studios are starting to take Jan & Feb seriously. It's later weekends are opening against a Micheal Bay film, a new Tarantino, The Revenant (which WB is inclined to get their money back on), and Kung Fu Panda 3. That's going to keep it from consequentive #1 weekends, but those first two weeks are going to be NUTS. It'll be fastest to a billion by a country mile.
Worldwide Gross - $3B. It's a globally known franchise as this point, that translates well and has a cast of new faces for audiences who only recognize the name. It will set the ceiling for worldwide grosses to come.

 

[ArmGunar]

The Avengers arguably has a better hold on the international markets; and it garnered mostly positive reviews.

The sequel made 1.4 billion.

The 501st can have up to a thousand person turnaround in some events while in the US. In China, they had a parade comprised of 100 fans - from over 9 countries. Star Wars just isn't popular in most of the world. This is especially true in developing countries (Latin America, most of Asia, the Middle East), who cumulatively can account to 30-40% of box office receipts.

Exactly we're not sure about those countries
But it can be great with Disney marketing and Star Wars hype

Those countries contributed for a part of Avatar's foreign gross and it was in 2009
We can imagine that it can be equal or a bit lower thanks to markets grow to compensate the huge Avatar's gross

 

[Senoculum]

As a member of the 501st, not sure what you are trying to get at or what event we are seeing a thousand person turn around at. If you are talking about member attendance, then yea that doesn't happen, even at huge events like NYCC or such, we only see at most a couple hundred show up. Celebration is the largest gathering and that was as big ever seen in the club for most members in one place. The attendance of celebration in Europe was a fraction of that, yet SW is doing fine over there.

The amount of costumers in a club has no relevance to popularity of a franchise.

Maybe not a thousand; I stand corrected. But there are a lot of hangouts, and events at Disney World.

I mean, this is just one convention. 600 strong.

Star Wars is deeply rooted in North America; there is no doubt; it may very well set some new domestic records. I'd just like to set people's expectations. The world is a BIG place, and not everyone is accustomed to America's geekdom. I think anywhere between 1.5 to 2 billion is reasonable to assume (given the film is really good, of course!).

While costuming isn't the biggest indicator, I think Disney's desperate attempt to get China on board the Star Wars train is apparent enough. They dropped $800 million is Disneyland China last year (mostly Star Wars related), they released the original trilogy in theatres in China, new figurines and toys make an appearance first now in China (see the 16 foot Millennium Falcon, see their stunt on the Great Wall of China). I'm not knocking them; it's good business sense - but the reasoning is that China is an influencer, and that region simply doesn't give a damn about Star Wars. It can be said that it was Lucas's reign that didn't make the franchise reach the international market place as well. Disney is forcing it to happen. We'll see if their efforts have paid off.

3 Billion is farfetched. No way is it touching Avatar. At this point, unless there's another Wall Street crash within the next year, Justice League, Star Wars 10, Avengers 3, and Avatar 2 will be the next generation of heavy hitters. 2 Billion + club for sure.

 

[kswiston]

China is not an open market, so trying to make educated predictions for Star Wars there is pointless. Earlier this year, we had a China Top 5 of All-Time Box office that was entirely made up of Hollywood films. Lo and behold, a few months later there are several $200-300M local films on the list, they fudged their way to Monster Hunt taking the #1 place from Furious 7, they fucked over Hollywood films with consecutive Sept release dates/ short run durations and screen allocation, and outright stole money from some films like Terminator Genisys.

Chinese officials could just decide that they don't want to start next year off with Star Wars challenging their local fare, and give it an opening like a week before Kung Fu Panda 3. Suddenly a potential $300M film (hypothetically) is a $175-200M film.

 

[The Artisan]

Maybe not a thousand; I stand corrected. But there are a lot of hangouts, and events at Disney World.

I mean, this is just one convention. 600 strong.



Star Wars is deeply rooted in North America; there is no doubt; it may very well set some new domestic records. I'd just like to set people's expectations. The world is a BIG place, and not everyone is accustomed to America's geekdom. I think anywhere between 1.5 to 2 billion is reasonable to assume (given the film is really good, of course!).

While costuming isn't the biggest indicator, I think Disney's desperate attempt to get China on board the Star Wars train is apparent enough. They dropped $800 million is Disneyland China last year (mostly Star Wars related), they released the original trilogy in theatres in China, new figurines and toys make an appearance first now in China (see the 16 foot Millennium Falcon, see their stunt on the Great Wall of China). I'm not knocking them; it's good business sense - but the reasoning is that China is an influencer, and that region simply doesn't give a damn about Star Wars. It can be said that it was Lucas's reign that didn't make the franchise reach the international market place as well. Disney is forcing it to happen. We'll see if their efforts have paid off.

3 Billion is farfetched. No way is it touching Avatar. At this point, unless there's another Wall Street crash within the next year, Justice League, Star Wars 10, Avengers 3, and Avatar 2 will be the next generation of heavy hitters. 2 Billion + club for sure.

they look like they're about to pray or something lol

 

[BattleMonkey]

Maybe not a thousand; I stand corrected. But there are a lot of hangouts, and events at Disney World.

I mean, this is just one convention. 600 strong.

And that was the biggest gathering of us ever, and it was Star Wars celebration in the US. I do the Florida event each year, and max we ever got was around 180 troopers to show up.

For costuming club's it's harder, especially for us in the 501st when it comes to international gatherings. Unlike the US, things are so spread out in China, it's hard for the groups there to ever get together in one spot. It's also hard for them to get the costume parts as majority comes from the US makers, and they have to pay a ton to get it over there.

 

[kswiston]

Boxoffice.com's first prediction for Star Wars is $215M opening and $762M domestic. I guess they are going all in with the record breaking, but still no ridiculous $300M first weekend predictions.

 

[3N16MA]

Boxoffice.com's first prediction for Star Wars is $215M opening and $762M domestic. I guess they are going all in with the record breaking, but still no ridiculous $300M first weekend predictions.

Seems reasonable. I think the Thursday preview numbers are going to top DH2 midnight numbers. That will lead to the biggest opening day and the rest of the weekend will take care of itself.

Good legs let it come close to Avatar's domestic record if not surpass it.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

they looked at Avatar's Domestic and added $2m just to be safe

 

[Toxi]

Boxoffice.com's first prediction for Star Wars is $215M opening and $762M domestic. I guess they are going all in with the record breaking, but still no ridiculous $300M first weekend predictions.

Didn't they say recently that predicting box office for movies greater than 150 million this far out is basically a crap shot?

 

[guek]

Boxoffice.com's first prediction for Star Wars is $215M opening and $762M domestic. I guess they are going all in with the record breaking, but still no ridiculous $300M first weekend predictions.

Funny since they predicted $221M for AoU. Guess they're opting to be more conservative, though I don't know if it's necessarily because they got burned by AoU.

 

[kswiston]

Funny since they predicted $221M for AoU. Guess they're opting to be more conservative, though I don't know if it's necessarily because they got burned by AoU.

Their original long range prediction for AoU was $217M opening/$565M total. To be fair, the opening weekend was only off by 13-14%. It just seems way overpredicted because we are working with larger numbers. No one would have really said anything if they predicted a $57M opening that ended up being a $50M opening. The domestic total was way off, but all of these domestic total predictions are crap shoots.

EDIT: Furthermore, I think it is hard for a lot of these box office sites not to let their enthusiasm peak into their objectivity for highly anticipated films. The writers are probably fans of stuff like the MCU films or Star Wars. At the very least, it makes for lively conversation of box office analysis is your geeky hobby.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Didn't they say recently that predicting box office for movies greater than 150 million this far out is basically a crap shot?

It was Deadline
A very good article about box office predictions.

 

[TheChewyWaffles]

2.5 billion WW gross if it's good. 1.5 if it sucks.

 

[kswiston]

It was Deadline
A very good article about box office predictions.

I don't think anyone can even accurately predict $150M+ weekends the day before Thursday evening releases.

 

[SaviorX]

OW: $221 Million. This will break the record
WW OW: 528 Million. Not as big worldwide as people think
Domestic: 487 Million

Worldwide final total: 1.62 Billion

 

[3N16MA]

OW: $221 Million. This will break the record
WW OW: 528 Million. Not as big worldwide as people think
Domestic: 487 Million

Worldwide final total: 1.62 Billion

You expect it to have horrible legs?

 

[Measley]

If Jurassic World made 600 million domestic, TFA is definitely making over 500 million domestic. JW wasn't even that great of a movie.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

If Jurassic World made 600 million domestic, TFA is definitely making over 500 million domestic. JW wasn't even that great of a movie.

Force Awakens might not be either.

 

[Konka]

If Jurassic World made 600 million domestic, TFA is definitely making over 500 million domestic. JW wasn't even that great of a movie.

JW performed incredibly well across all demographic groups. If TFA can't do what it did in that regard it won't catch it. People enjoyed it, I feel like people on the internet get too caught up in reviews and scores and forget that people enjoying it in the theater is what matters.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Boxoffice.com's first prediction for Star Wars is $215M opening and $762M domestic. I guess they are going all in with the record breaking, but still no ridiculous $300M first weekend predictions.

Jeeeezus.

 

[casinoman921]

Over $200 million for sure.
Are there Thursday showings? And do those not count as the opening weekend?

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

I think record breaking in the US definitely. But in foreign territories, it won't be as record breaking as avatar. Foreign territories in general,because of the language barrier, and cultural barriers, are (when it comes to record breaking numbers) more inclined to watch movies that are much more CGI/explosion heavy and have simple plots.....and white male protagonists. TFA only fulfill's 2 out of 3 criteria. And depending on how deep they go into the lore and past films in this one for references, it might only fulfill 1 out of 3.

It's why transformers/avatar/marvel movies do well.
It will break all records in the US/UK though.

 

[FTF]

OW: $221 Million. This will break the record
WW OW: 528 Million. Not as big worldwide as people think
Domestic: 487 Million

Worldwide final total: 1.62 Billion

There is 0.001% chance it finishes with only $487m dom with a $221m ow.

 

[Monocle]

I'd say 2 billion at minimum, worldwide. Possibly 3.

No clue about opening night.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

It will probably get that coveted #1 behind Cameron spot from JW.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

This thread is gonna be a fun read in early January.

 

[ArmGunar]

This thread is gonna be a fun read in early January.

Hope in January, we'll say " Wow we have underestimated that monster "

 

[kswiston]

It will probably get that coveted #1 behind Cameron spot from JW.

Titanic still has that by a few million domestically (and by hundreds of millions worldwide).

Jeeeezus.

Boxoffice.com isn't always right obviously. Just over a week ago, they had Steve Jobs opening at $24M. It might actually open to about a third of that.

Hope in January, we'll say " Wow we have underestimated that monster "

Pretty much impossible with some people predicting upwards of $2B domestic.

 

[Cheebo]

OW: $221 Million. This will break the record
WW OW: 528 Million. Not as big worldwide as people think
Domestic: 487 Million

Worldwide final total: 1.62 Billion

So you think it will do worse domestically than the prequels did adjusted for inflation?

Are you serious?

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Boxoffice.com isn't always right obviously.

Well yeah, I was just more surprised that they decided to go optimistic instead of playing it safe.

 

[kswiston]

Well yeah, I was just more surprised that they decided to go optimistic instead of playing it safe.

I suppose you have to if you are predicting a record breaking weekend? I mean, even if you gave the Force Awakens the same legs as the Desolation of Smaug, a $215M opening would put it at $750M domestic. Unexpected Journey legs would get it to $770M.

I Am Legend had the worst legs of any major December opener (>$60M) I can think of, and even those legs get The Force Awakens to $715M on a $215M opening.

If the opening is record setting, Star Wars will need to have especially bad holiday legs to avoid at least coming close to Avatar.

 

[Cheebo]

Well yeah, I was just more surprised that they decided to go optimistic instead of playing it safe.

Mike Fleming over at Deadline went full-on optimistic too. I am guessing Iger & co. over at Disney do not enjoy the fact the media is full on all in on it being massive to this degree. Sets up some insanely lofty predictions.

Although we still have people in this very thread predicting it won't sell more tickets than Attack of the Clones domestically of all things so it will at least beat some peoples predictions no matter what

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I suppose you have to if you are predicting a record breaking weekend

I know. I'm saying I didn't think they'd predict a record breaking weekend.

Well, that and the 700+ number domestic is just kinda nuts to look at, heh.

 

[Cheebo]

Part of me wonders if all the media attention about ticket presales might hurt the weekend numbers. If people think every showing is sold out months in advance they might avoid the movie opening weekend and wait it out at much larger degree than they might normally otherwise have done.

The attention the media is giving to the ticket craziness makes it seem like the whole weekend is all sold out and will be impossible to see it otherwise. When in reality the big preorder sales are pretty much just for the Thursday night first showings.

The assumption of not being able to see the movie could create vicious cycle where people avoid it thinking it will be sold out which results in it not actually having mass-sellouts.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

"nobody went to that restaurant that weekend because it was too crowded."

 

[Cheebo]

"nobody went to that restaurant that weekend because it was too crowded."

Yeah, that whole thing, I could see it happening because of all the attention the mania surrounding the opening weekend is already getting. I have never seen this level of "ITS GOING TO BE CRAZY" opening weekend talk. No one expected Jurassic World to be that big opening weekend for example, there was none of this warnings of how impossible it will be to see it without preordering weeks in advance...etc

 

[Measley]

JW performed incredibly well across all demographic groups. If TFA can't do what it did in that regard it won't catch it. People enjoyed it, I feel like people on the internet get too caught up in reviews and scores and forget that people enjoying it in the theater is what matters.

It performed that way because it's a sequel to a benchmark film from decades ago that people took their kids to go see. SW:TFA is the exact same kind of film. It even helps TFA's case since the original cast is going to be in the sequel.

 

[kswiston]

I know. I'm saying I didn't think they'd predict a record breaking weekend.

Well, that and the 700+ number domestic is just kinda nuts to look at, heh.

For sure. However, Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi, and The Phantom Menace would all be in the $650-700M range for their initial runs, just taking differences in average ticket prices into consideration (and ignoring the fact that IMAX/3D/etc will give The Force Awakens a higher than average ticket price). I suppose it is not unprecedented.

I went with $180M/$680M for Toothless' WInter Game, and I am starting to think that I might have been conservative. I don't know that Avatar numbers will happen, but we might actually get our second $700M film.

At the very least, IMAX is going to experience sell outs for most of the evening shows those first two weekends.

I still think that a lot of people are severely over-estimating the overseas gross though. I feel like $2B+ worldwide is going to be difficult, even if we get $750-800M domestic.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

they looked at Avatar's Domestic and added $2m just to be safe

lol. Basically.

But I do believe it can beat Avatar at the domestic BO.

 

[M.W.]

I'd say 2 billion at minimum, worldwide. Possibly 3.

No clue about opening night.

3B?

Not a chance.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I still think that a lot of people are severely over-estimating the overseas gross though. I feel like $2B+ worldwide is going to be difficult, even if we get $750-800M domestic.

Yeah, I definitely agree there. I think you were the one awhile back who tipped me off to the fact the exchange rates aren't anything like they were back in 2009. The markets have opened up way wider, but even with bigger reciepts coming in from overseas, the money isn't as friendly in 2015 as it was then.

 

[Shepard]

OW: 100m
Domestic: 550m
Ww: 1.8b

I come from a long generation of box office gurus, so you can trust me.

 

[kswiston]

Yeah, I definitely agree there. I think you were the one awhile back who tipped me off to the fact the exchange rates aren't anything like they were back in 2009. The markets have opened up way wider, but even with bigger reciepts coming in from overseas, the money isn't as friendly in 2015 as it was then.

Yeah, it's not even as favourable as it was back in 2012. I'd have to check, but I don't think that Skyfall would have been a $1B film with today's currency rates. The Hobbit wouldn't have been either. The Dark Knight Rises would have been a borderline $1B film (since a lot of its international earnings were in the UK, China and South Korea, which haven't seen as much currency depreciation). Avengers would have been under AoU.

All of which makes the international grosses for some of the 2015 films even more impressive.

 

[Sorcerer]

Part of me wonders if all the media attention about ticket presales might hurt the weekend numbers. If people think every showing is sold out months in advance they might avoid the movie opening weekend and wait it out at much larger degree than they might normally otherwise have done.

The attention the media is giving to the ticket craziness makes it seem like the whole weekend is all sold out and will be impossible to see it otherwise. When in reality the big preorder sales are pretty much just for the Thursday night first showings.

The assumption of not being able to see the movie could create vicious cycle where people avoid it thinking it will be sold out which results in it not actually having mass-sellouts.

I don't think this will be an issue.

Its so easy just to check online if tickets are available, not like you have to waste gas going in blind to the theater.

 

[kswiston]

I don't think this will be an issue.

Its so easy just to check online if tickets are available, not like you have to waste gas going in blind to the theater.

I don't know about the US, but in Canada most theatres still have unassigned seating outside of Ultra AVX, IMAX, and other large format screens. Even if I could buy tickets online to something like Star Wars on that first Friday, I have to decide whether it will be worth standing in line for at least an hour to get decent seats. Especially if I want to sit with the people I am going with.

I don't know if that will make a big difference, but it is still a concern, even though you can now buy tickets in advance.