Support NeoGAF

[Killing_Joke]

I'm going to keep it nice and simple.

190m OW
550m Domestic
1.6b WW

It's weird because Star wars is big enough to do those numbers easily but i still feel like i'm over doing it. My gut is telling me the hype is all fanboy, don't really see it pulling the family in like JW. But we'll see.

 

[Sorcerer]

I don't know about the US, but in Canada most theatres still have unassigned seating outside of Ultra AVX, IMAX, and other large format screens. Even if I could buy tickets online to something like Star Wars on that first Friday, I have to decide whether it will be worth standing in line for at least an hour to get decent seats. Especially if I want to sit with the people I am going with.

I don't know if that will make a big difference, but it is still a concern, even though you can now buy tickets in advance.

That's always my dilemma, I must have the seats in the backrow. It kinda does suck that a guaranteed ticket is no guarantee of good seats.

 

[CreepingFear]

I don't think this film will break any records, other then opening day or weekend which is constantly broken. There are spoiler reasons I can't get in to, but some people are going to be pissed with some of character choices. It will be better than the prequels and probably better than Return of the Jedi, but it's not going to capture the magic of Star Wars and Empire Strikes Back. It will get people excited about Star Wars the same way Star Trek 2009 got people excited about Star Trek.

 

[3N16MA]

We're a month out so time for my prediction.

OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B

Breaks the domestic record, just barely surpasses Titanic for #2 all-time, falls short of Avatar by 568M. Good legs but not amazing as its OW will be huge.

It would be great if broke every single record as the box office story would be amazing.

I'm going big.

 

[DonMigs85]

10 billion American dollars
I'm also hoping Triumph the Insult Comic Dog covers a premiere again

 

[Bobby Roberts]

10 billion American dollars
I'm also hoping Triumph the Insult Comic Dog covers a premiere again

There's not really going to be any lines, though. At least not to the extent needed for him to pull that sketch again.

 

[DonMigs85]

There's not really going to be any lines, though. At least not to the extent needed for him to pull that sketch again.

Nooo. I was hoping he would run into some of the same nerds. Maybe even Blackwolf the Dragonmaster

 

[Machina]

It will beat Avatar and set a new bench mark that will probably never be topped.

 

[Come to Butt-Head]

It will beat Avatar and set a new bench mark that will probably never be topped.

I hope this happens so, so much.

Avatar being on top has always bugged the hell out of me.

 

[ZehDon]

It will beat Avatar and set a new bench mark that will probably never be topped.

I love Star Wars, but Avatar, and Titanic before it, reached across demographics in a way that Star Wars simply doesn't.

 

[gatti-man]

I love Star Wars, but Avatar, and Titanic before it, reached across demographics in a way that Star Wars simply doesn't.

I think your wrong. This movie has everyone excited. If it reviews well and gets great word of mouth it could be the biggest ever. I think it will need everything to beat avatar but IF it reviews well we should see enormous numbers WW.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

I think your wrong. This movie has everyone excited. If it reviews well and gets great word of mouth it could be the biggest ever. I think it will need everything to beat avatar but IF it reviews well we should see enormous numbers WW.

Your definition of 'everyone' must differ from the actual definition of 'everyone' if you think the same demographics exist for Star Wars. You'd had swarms of grandmas going to see Avatar.

 

[RoadHazard]

Many dollars.

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

Opening weekend gross: $300m+
Worldwide opening gross: $1b or close to it
Domestic gross: $800m+
Overseas gross: $2.5b
Worldwide gross: $3b

 

[DonMigs85]

Yeah I doubt it'll beat Avatar but it might beat Jurassic World.

 

[Freewheelin']

Will beat JW handily. Think it'll beat Titanic too. No way does it beat Avatar.

2bil

 

[dreamcastmaster]

It will beat Avatar and set a new bench mark that will probably never be topped.

Never, Avatar was a new must see 3D event. Star Wars is just a sequel so there are many people that won't see it just because they don't like the franchise.

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

Never, Avatar was a new must see 3D event. Star Wars is just a sequel so there are many people that won't see it just because they don't like the franchise.

Avatar was a movie.

Just like Star Wars.

Nothing but a movie.

 

[NandyRewman]

My mum, who's in her fifies and has never really shown any interest in Star Wars before, wants to go and watch The Force Awakens. I think the last time she went to the cinema was to see Mamma Mia. No idea how much it'll make, but it's amazing that it appeals go such a wide demographic.

 

[FeD.nL]

I think your wrong. This movie has everyone excited. If it reviews well and gets great word of mouth it could be the biggest ever. I think it will need everything to beat avatar but IF it reviews well we should see enormous numbers WW.

Yeah well to make them see it once. I was working in a cinema when Avatar launched, there were people going to see that film 3 times who I never saw in our cinema again in the 4 years after Avatar. It's not about legs, it's not about everyone seeing it. It's about everyone seeing it twice, and with sequels on the horizon I really don't see that happening.

 

[Ushay]

I'm bookmarking this post, and if it does like 2.5 billion I'm gonna come back and say something really good and mean.

Indeed.

I think it'll crack 3.2 Billion easily. It's frigging Star Wars baby.

 

[AniHawk]

i believe the world economy will be based on the force awakens.

 

[Tom_Cody]

I love Star Wars, but Avatar, and Titanic before it, reached across demographics in a way that Star Wars simply doesn't.

I totally agree. IMO Jurrasic World is a much better point of comparison than Avatar/Titanic.

 

[Random17]

Two thousand one hundred and ninety nine million United States dollars

 

[cloud_sleep]

Yeah well to make them see it once. I was working in a cinema when Avatar launched, there were people going to see that film 3 times who I never saw in our cinema again in the 4 years after Avatar. It's not about legs, it's not about everyone seeing it. It's about everyone seeing it twice, and with sequels on the horizon I really don't see that happening.

Yeah a couple of my friends who hardly ever go the cinema enjoyed Avatar so much they went another 2 times. Bought the Blu Ray as well. We're seeing TFA but I'll be amazed if they want to go more than once.

 

[DonMigs85]

Avatar was a movie.

Just like Star Wars.

Nothing but a movie.

So is Gigli

 

[wachie]

We're a month out so time for my prediction.

OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B

Breaks the domestic record, just barely surpasses Titanic for #2 all-time, falls short of Avatar by 568M. Good legs but not amazing as its OW will be huge.

It would be great if broke every single record as the box office story would be amazing.

I'm going big.

You and I, we think alike.

Opening weekend gross: 215M
Worldwide opening gross: 625M
Domestic gross: 725M
Overseas gross: 1.25B
Worldwide gross: 2B

 

[Bearthgar]

I'm gonna go with $1.4B - $1.7B WW. In the Avengers and Jurassic World tier ( maybe beating them) but a healthy amount less than the Cameron films.

 

[DonMigs85]

Some of you guys are really overestimating the appeal of Star Wars. Not even The Phantom Menace breached 1.1 billion. I don't think it'll exceed 1.5 billion to be honest.

 

[BocoDragon]

I love Star Wars, but Avatar, and Titanic before it, reached across demographics in a way that Star Wars simply doesn't.

Titanic I get.... That's something non-nerds could get behind..... Your grandma might watch Titanic in a way that she'd never watch any of this CGI-fest genre crap.

But WTF even happened with Avatar? That is one nerdy concept. I actually think it is less populist than Star Wars... less relatable to average joes. And it's not like it had the geeks especially rally behind it with multiple viewings. As history has borne out, it barely has a fandom.

Cameron made a deal with the devil or something, I'm sure....

 

[Branduil]

Some of you guys are really overestimating the appeal of Star Wars. Not even The Phantom Menace breached 1.1 billion. I don't think it'll exceed 1.5 billion to be honest.

Adjusted for inflation Phantom Menace would have easily passed 1.5 billion.

 

[True Savior]

But WTF even happened with Avatar? That is one nerdy concept. I actually think it is less populist than Star Wars... less relatable to average joes.

Cameron made a deal with the devil or something, I'm sure....

Novelty of 3D. At least that was the reason my parents went to see it. They rarely go watch movies at a theater.

 

[massivekettle]

Some of you guys are really overestimating the appeal of Star Wars. Not even The Phantom Menace breached 1.1 billion. I don't think it'll exceed 1.5 billion to be honest.

The Phantom Menace effectively did c. $1.3-1.4bn adjusted for inflation. And that was with international markets barely developed, and bad word-of-mouth.

If SW7 has good WoM, I don't see why $1.5bn+ isn't feasible. I think people will be disappointed by the Opening Weekend gross. This is December, not May. This should have legs, but the opening will be rather unimpressive compared to May/June movies (JW, FF7, Avengers, etc.) but exceptional compared to December movies (if it does anywhere close to $150m OW, that would be pretty much doubling the record)

 

[BocoDragon]

Novelty of 3D. At least that was the reason my parents went to see it. They rarely go watch movies at a theater.

I can definitely believe that.

Though in retrospect 3D fizzled the fuck out. I'm still going with my Cameron x Satan theory.

 

[True Savior]

I can definitely believe that.

Though in retrospect 3D fizzled the fuck out. I'm still going with my Cameron x Satan theory.

I think at that time , Alice in Wonderland also capitalized a lot with 3d after a few months Avatar was released.

I think my parents are a great barometer for movie successes. Which movie they went to see this year ? Jurassic World !

 

[DonMigs85]

I can definitely believe that.

Though in retrospect 3D fizzled the fuck out. I'm still going with my Cameron x Satan theory.

It was really THE first major IMAX 3D event, so it attracted all sorts of people. I watched it twice in the cinema myself.
If ever Avatar 2 does come out, I kinda doubt it'll exceed 1.5 billion. The novelty of 3D has worn off.

 

[Daffy Duck]

I think it will break every record possible.

Opening Weekend in the US/UK/any other country
Total opening weekend worldwide
Worldwide total

This thing will be a monster. It will be even bigger if it's actually a great film too.

 

[Krev]

Some of you guys are really overestimating the appeal of Star Wars. Not even The Phantom Menace breached 1.1 billion. I don't think it'll exceed 1.5 billion to be honest.

The Phantom Menace made $750 million adjusted in North America. It also had a bit of negative word of mouth to contend with.

Star Wars is big.

 

[SteveMeister]

The Phantom Menace made $750 million adjusted in North America. It also had a bit of negative word of mouth to contend with.

Star Wars is big.

And let's not forget the draw of Ford, Hammil and Fisher. The presence of the original cast alone is going to be a multiplier on ticket sales.

Movie will be a monster by all measures, globally.

 

[munchie64]

I think at that time , Alice in Wonderland also capitalized a lot with 3d after a few months Avatar was released.

I think my parents are a great barometer for movie successes. Which movie they went to see this year ? Jurassic World !

Hmmm... try and get them to see Star Wars!

 

[Cheebo]

Some of you guys are really overestimating the appeal of Star Wars. Not even The Phantom Menace breached 1.1 billion. I don't think it'll exceed 1.5 billion to be honest.

This makes no sense at all. 16 years of inflation, the overseas market being non-existent compared to today, and IMAX and 3D price hikes.

Adjusted for inflation TPM is. A 1.5 bil film with a completely non-existent overseas market as compared to today.

 

[DonMigs85]

This makes no sense at all. 16 years of inflation, the overseas market being non-existent compared to today, and IMAX and 3D price hikes.

Adjusted for inflation TPM is. A 1.4 bil film with a completely non-existent overseas market as compared to today.

Well, ROTS did around 800 million in 2005 and I'd say the overseas market was reasonably developed then, except maybe for China. And I dunno if they ever really went gaga for Star Wars.

 

[Cheebo]

Well, ROTS did around 800 million and I'd say the overseas market was reasonably developed then, except maybe for China. And I dunno if they ever really went gaga for Star Wars.

You can't compare the overseas market of 2005 to 2015, it was not reasonably developed as compared to today. The overseas market is vastly larger today than it was in 2005. Night and day difference in terms of overseas box office gross compared to 10 years ago.

China is not the only one to grow in 10 years, at all.

We have post and pre Avatar WW box office trends. You can't compare overseas gross of movies from 10 years ago, the market is dramatically different today in size.

 

[DonMigs85]

You can't compare the overseas market of 2005 to 2015, it was not reasonably developed as compared to today. The overseas market is vastly larger today than it was in 2005. Night and day difference in terms of overseas box office gross compared to 10 years ago.

China is not the only one to grow in 10 years, at all.

We have post and pre Avatar WW box office trends. You can't compare overseas gross of movies from 10 years ago, the market is dramatically different today in size.

Well, I think we can all agree on one point - Disney's gonna be laughing all the way to the bank.
At the very least, it will likely beat Avengers and Jurassic World.

 

[Cheebo]

Well, I think we can all agree on one point - Disney's gonna be laughing all the way to the bank.
At the very least, it will likely beat Avengers and Jurassic World.

Yep, that goes without question, especially after Avengers failed to meet expectations. A year ago who would have thought an Avengers film wouldn't even be in the top 3 highest grossers of the year?

 

[Apt101]

780 mil domestic.

4.1 bil worldwide

9.8 bil intergalactic

 

[CassSept]

The Force Awakens has not shot at Avatar, if only because dollar was really weak when it was in the theaters, which boosted an already humongous overseas gross to some absurd heights, in addition to record-breaking domestic take.

I think worldwide TFA gross can beat Avatar overseas gross, but worldwide? All stars aligned for Avatar when it released (in addition to Cameron selling his soul to the devil), anything beating Avatar in the nearest future is inconceivable.

Maybe if the movie is good and it has good word of mouth it has a shot at Avatar domestically, worldwide is literally impossible.

 

[kraspkibble]

$1.5-1.8b WW

Don't think it'll get past $2b. then again I don't know much about how this is calculated and I'm not sure just how big this is gonna be. don't have anything against the movies. i wouldn't mind if it takes first place.

 

[PeskyToaster]

I didn't see Avatar in theaters and I'm going to see Star Wars so it will make more money

 

[Ray Wonder]

Indeed.

I think it'll crack 3.2 Billion easily. It's frigging Star Wars baby.

Lol dude I said that to got banned so