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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/yes-star-wars-tickets-are-833409
The most relevant bit
I just can't belive it myself but I guess we'll see.
The most relevant bit
I just can't belive it myself but I guess we'll see.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I do think Star Wars has a good chance at the opening weekend record. I don't think December is a good enough reason for why it can't.
Since my post here last night about how interest in the movie, beyond the fanbase, will determine if TFA surpasses Avatar, both my parents (in their late 50s) quickly signed up for the midnight premier, and even an aunt or two!
And I'm hearing similar things from other friends also. My parents aren't bores that only watch Oscar bait flicks, they're pretty open minded when it comes to film and TV, but they NEVER sign up so quickly for a midnight premier, not even for other SW movies. My mom said simply that it would be "exciting" this time.
So, yeah... not that impossible it reaches $3B. Although, others are right the hype will make it break records at opening, but only if its great beyond expectations will it have the legs to beat Avatar's record.
And I'm hearing similar things from other friends also. My parents aren't bores that only watch Oscar bait flicks, they're pretty open minded when it comes to film and TV, but they NEVER sign up so quickly for a midnight premier, not even for other SW movies. My mom said simply that it would be "exciting" this time.
So, yeah... not that impossible it reaches $3B. Although, others are right the hype will make it break records at opening, but only if its great beyond expectations will it have the legs to beat Avatar's record.
ShemhazaiX
Member
It'll break records for grosses.
It'll have a 70% RT score and will receive an unprecedented amount of backlash from Star Wars fans.
It'll have a 70% RT score and will receive an unprecedented amount of backlash from Star Wars fans.
Unprecedented meaning you would expect to see more backlash from the fans than what the prequels got?
Represent.
Represent(ative) of bad opinions
Only Cameron tops Cameron.
Discotheque
Banned
RT's pretty damn lenient with the blockbusters. Freaking Star Trek Into Darkness has 87%.
if this movie's actually as good as the trailers look then it will have no problem hitting 90 imo
ShemhazaiX
Member
Yeah. I'm honestly expecting that. It won't be as bad, but people will act like it is.
it won't be unprecedented! we have a pretty clear precedent to point to
but I do think it will disappoint. the hype is way too high. deep down, all of the older fans want this to bring the feels that the original trilogy brought. but no film can, and no film ever will.
and when TFA doesn't, people will shit on JJ and shit on the film.
/boldprediction
great trailers don't mean shit. look at man of steel.
I'm outta here!
We are going to get clickbait, pie in the sky opening weekend estimates until we're a week or two from launch.
Even if the opening weekend record is "smashed" I think it will be like $230-240M (with record Thursday grosses making up most of the difference). Nothing close to $300M.
EDIT: It's probably worth pointing out that some "analysts" were suggesting like $200-220M for The Dark Knight Rises despite its lack of 3D surcharges, because "It's Batman".
Revenge of the Sith is like 80% on RT. There's only one Spider-man movie that doesn't have a fresh rating, and even that (Amazing Spider-Man 2) was borderline. Critics definitely have a soft spot for some franchises.
ShemhazaiX
Member
it won't be unprecedented! we have a pretty clear precedent to point to
but I do think it will disappoint. the hype is way too high. deep down, all of the older fans want this to bring the feels that the original trilogy brought. but no film can, and no film ever will.
and when TFA doesn't, people will shit on JJ and shit on the film.
/boldprediction
great trailers don't mean shit. look at man of steel.
I'm outta here!
Well this is it. Honestly when we look at the facts we have a live action movie made by Disney directed by the guy who made a relatively controversial set of Star Trek remakes. I'm honestly expecting a run of the mill Marvel movie. I'll happily be wrong, it's just what my expectation is set at right now.
Latvian Hitman
Member
I agree. Actually, I'll be surprised if it doesn't break the opening weekend record. Fandango and Movietickets both imploded Monday night when tickets went on sale. The thirst appears to be very real.
As far as the film going Cameron-tier for it's WW lifelong run, the December start makes it tough. It'll slay all kinds of records during the final two weeks of December, but January is a shitty month for a film to try and grow legs in. Movie will need to be damn good to have a shot.
I'm honestly expecting it to be able as good as Star Trek 2009. maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse. it'll shit on the prequels, but certainly won't be good enough to even come close to all of this hype.
I'm trying to force myself not to be excited but it's been hard. The trailers have been great and there's so much original trilogy imagery that I can't help but get hype. But then I remember the lead up to episode 1... and everything feels so familiar.
"Did you see Avatar? Oh my god it's amazing. The 3D is A-MA-ZING. It's like you're really there."
real quote from a family member. At the time, 3D movies were all the hype. people went to watch just because of the 3D (at least according to my anecdotal evidence) combined with the great art direction. It kinda reminded me of the Wii phenomenon. It wasn't a great movie (like Wii Sports wasn't a great game) but it was so different and new that everyone just decided to give it a shot.
fucking alice in wonderland 2010 grossed over a billion because they pushed 3D super hard with it and it was coming hot off the heels of avatar. the hype for 3D was real.
Boxoffice.com should be releasing their first long term forecast for The Force Awakens this Friday. I am curious to see what they say, as their website's credibility is on the line more than Hollywood Reporter or Deadline's "unnamed sources suggest..."
If people are honest with themselves, the OT holds such a special spot in their hearts because they first watched it at the right age. Even if this film is of comparable quality to the OT, people are going to be disappointed. Everything seems better when you are 5-13. We'll get complaints of cheesy acting (which was always in abundance in this series), or too much CGI, or Abrams lens flares.
If people are honest with themselves, the OT holds such a special spot in their hearts because they first watched it at the right age. Even if this film is of comparable quality to the OT, people are going to be disappointed. Everything seems better when you are 5-13. We'll get complaints of cheesy acting (which was always in abundance in this series), or too much CGI, or Abrams lens flares.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
That's because most movie critics didn't have some sort of charge handed down from on high by a splinter of the fandom to shove bamboo shoots under the film's fingernails for daring to repurpose aspects of Wrath of Khan.
So they just reviewed it as the sequel to the first film, which was itself essentially a candy-coated reboot of the entire series.
At which point an 87% makes perfect sense.
That Star Trek reboot is very relevant to this discussion by the way, because Abrams absolutely has to do what he did on that movie with this one: Take your cultural familiarity, twist it, and then amplify the fuck out of it so it actually plays the way you REMEMBER it playing, not the way it ACTUALLY played.
That's how Star Trek 09 worked: It allowed for people who kinda remembered what Star Trek was before it got calcified, and people who never knew, and only absorbed it via cultural osmosis, to jump in and feel like "Oh, this is what this whole thing was about, huh? I like it!"
He's gotta do that with Star Wars now.
Which is probably why you're seeing people crying, freaking out, hurting - you know, FEELING EMOTIONS in the trailer. Because they can't act the way they did in the prequels or the OT even. More than anything, these characters have to be recognizable, relatable PEOPLE. They just happen to be in a Star Wars movie.
Despite its storytelling shortcomings, it is a pretty movie and the 2D BR transfer is gorgeous, definitely a benchmark for testing TV and audio sets in my eyes (and ears).
That's just anecdotal evidence, which means basically nothing. Hell, my dad loves SW and has zero interest in watching TFA before it hits home video.
Yeah, and some analysts were predicting that AoU would have a $250M OW.
Star Wars is going to be really hard to predict overseas, and I think a lot of people are going to make the mistake of taking hype in North America, or in Western Europe/Australia, and applying to to the entire worldwide market.
UK, Germany, France, Spain, Australia and Japan accounted for about two thirds of Revenge of the Sith's overseas box office. If you look at Pirates 2 or Goblet of Fire (released within about a year of ROTS) those 6 countries accounted for around 55% (and both films were considerably larger overseas). The percentage was even lower for Titanic. Star Wars was a more regionalized hit.
Considering that Spain's movie box office has collapsed, Japan has become more local-focused, and Germany/France/Australia have been surpassed by several Asian and Latin American territories, who really knows what will happen worldwide. Maybe the films will be super popular in those newer regions. Maybe not.
Just can't see how that's possible.
Pre-sales are very impressive but did anyone think that wasn't going to happen?? That's not how OW are broken though. Walk ups over the weekend is what counts.
Now, I don't live in the States but from reports coming from JW, Avengers and even AoU opening weekends people were lining up outside of cinemas for hours to try and get into sessions (like a theme park ride I guess). Now, other than die hard Star Wars fans are people going to do that in winter, where temps in half the country will be below freezing? I'm talking normal movie goers/families here. I can't see it.
Not going to say it can't break the overall record but there's a very good chance it won't break any of the BIG records. It's not being launched in China the same weekend which will put a big dent in its OW WW chances. That's $100-200m gone right there.
Here in Australia there's a very big chance to break the OW but, again, no chance of beating Avatar. Just for reference, Avatar made over twice the next biggest ($115m, followed by Titanic with $57m).
Darkangel
Member
How big is Star Wars overseas? I know it's big in Europe, but what about the "new" markets that weren't really around during the OT?
Jurassic World was riding hard on nostalgia, but at the end of the day it was essentially a "monster destruction" movie with widespread appeal. Does "Star Wars" mean that much to those who never grew up with it? I see people in this thread talking about how their parents are excited, but what about a random middle aged Chinese dude (for example)?
Part of the reason Avatar did so well was because it was a brand new
experience. I'm not sure if Force Awakens will be a big enough phenomenon to attract people who aren't already somewhat aware of Star Wars.
Jurassic World was riding hard on nostalgia, but at the end of the day it was essentially a "monster destruction" movie with widespread appeal. Does "Star Wars" mean that much to those who never grew up with it? I see people in this thread talking about how their parents are excited, but what about a random middle aged Chinese dude (for example)?
Part of the reason Avatar did so well was because it was a brand new
3D
crazy monkey
Banned
1.45 BILLION OVER ALL.
Jawmuncher
Member
I still think it's anyone's game in terms of the opening. December is by far the biggest factor, if not for that even i would say it would take Jurassic Worlds Opening Weekend Record.
CrichtonKicks
Member
Not really. People just buy the tickets online or just walk right up. You really don't see that anymore these days even for those movies.
There are lines for shows that do not have assigned seating even if tickets are bought online.
Well, for starters, I live in Mexico, although it's culturally very influenced by the U.S., but it's still one of the biggest emerging markets for movies in the world and the hype here is huge too.
And apparently, Disney is betting big on China, just look what it did for the trailer premier on Monday at the Great Wall.
Chezzymann
Member
If it gets the record, the real question is how will it perform on its second weekend? That's Christmas. Historically movies get a boost then, so I wouldn't be surprised if it has a very low drop. I'm talking 200-150
CrichtonKicks
Member
Unless you are part of a big group or super duper picky in terms of seats getting to the theater 30 minutes early is plenty.
Insane Metal
Gold Member
Thug Waffle
Member
Going out on a limb here. Gonna guess a billi
One can dream...
One can dream...
There's not a ton of data for large films hitting their second Friday on Xmas, but I think the crazy Thursday preview business is going to hurt that second weekend drop. You'll have a 3.5 day weekend being compared to a 3 day weekend.
I don't think that a 25% drop is reasonable in this case. You might see 35-40% instead of the ~50% we saw on Avengers and Jurassic World if the film has sufficient WOM.
Darth Karja
Member
I expect it too. It don't think it will last 15 years like the prequels have got, but people love to complain about stuff. They will find something they don't like about this movie.
Tricky I Shadow
Banned
Yeah....no.
There are a lot of people in here sorely underestimating December's nigh-inevitable impact on sales. There's a reason Hobbit 1's $84 million is the record right now.
I think Disney is not only keenly aware of all this, but it's praying VII is super-duper well-received, so that Episode VIII, with its Summer 2017 debut, will be the real breadwinner. This will go against franchise convention that the first in a new Star Wars trilogy tends to perform the best, sure, but it's a different world now, and again... TFA's December release is not to be underestimated.
$160 million opening weekend domestic. $500-700 million domestic total, depending on word-of-mouth. Overseas totals will thrust the final tally to $2.0-2.2 billion, but no further. Star Wars is very, very big in very particular countries, and there's no Benedict Cumberbatch to salivate the Japanese.
I think Disney is not only keenly aware of all this, but it's praying VII is super-duper well-received, so that Episode VIII, with its Summer 2017 debut, will be the real breadwinner. This will go against franchise convention that the first in a new Star Wars trilogy tends to perform the best, sure, but it's a different world now, and again... TFA's December release is not to be underestimated.
$160 million opening weekend domestic. $500-700 million domestic total, depending on word-of-mouth. Overseas totals will thrust the final tally to $2.0-2.2 billion, but no further. Star Wars is very, very big in very particular countries, and there's no Benedict Cumberbatch to salivate the Japanese.
The Artisan
Member
pretty soon the top 50's gonna just be all films in the billions.
We've had four films already THIS YEAR move into the top 10 box office. Solid bet Star Wars will be the 5th (who knows about SPECTRE).
Pretty crazy.
The Artisan
Member
yep. suffice to say maybe universal did not even expect furious 7 to do as well as it did. maybe it was the paul walker effect. i know i personally wanted to go and see it because of him.
LegendofJoe
Member
If the movie is good it will top $3 billion worldwide. i.e. it will be the highest grossing movie of all time.
If it's merely decent it will come in around $2 billion based on marketing, hype, and brand recognition alone.
If it's merely decent it will come in around $2 billion based on marketing, hype, and brand recognition alone.
I think it's exciting that all the people talking up Force Awakens chances of becoming the highest grossing film of all time are getting a slice of said worldwide box office from Disney.
That's how it works..., right?
Can we add the quote from Joeytj's Mother to the OP?
That's how it works..., right?
Can we add the quote from Joeytj's Mother to the OP?
PeskyToaster
Member
Controversial to who? Definitely not the general populace or critics who enjoyed it pretty much universally. I don't really know a person who didn't at least like Star Trek 09. Into Darkness a little less but people by and large still enjoyed it. I don't think JJ Abrams' reputation is as shaky as people make it out to be here.
I'm not even that big of a SW fan and I feel like I'll be seeing it 3 times over the course of 2 weeks. =\
My GF's job is taking their studio and I am her +1.
I got tickets (before I knew about the above) for opening weekend for my GF and I..
and I'll be visiting family for xmas, so we'll probably go.
The numbers for this thing will be huge.
My GF's job is taking their studio and I am her +1.
I got tickets (before I knew about the above) for opening weekend for my GF and I..
and I'll be visiting family for xmas, so we'll probably go.
The numbers for this thing will be huge.
I also enjoy the notion being passed around in here that the general population didn't actually enjoy Avatar and just went and saw it for purely novelty reasons.
It's like poetry, it rhymes.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Nah.
Avatar was special because it brought back 3D as a thing and stayed in the theaters for several months. Several. Star Wars will be out of theaters by the end of February.
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