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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
- Thread starter 3N16MA
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Jurassic World made 80% of that and it wasn't even that good.
I don't know how you can make a statement like that. There also isn't much info on how the Jurassic franchise would do in China. It is likely that it will be the first foreign movie after about a month blackout of foreign films in China, which tend to get a bump (this happened with Terminator Genisys, which did $113M in China after a blackout of foreign films--we also didn't have any information on China's interest in the Terminator franchise).
We do know that sci-fi movies tend to overperform in China.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Nothing coming close to Avatar until Avatar 2 bros.
People really forgot how big Avatar did worldwide. That will not happen again. The movie can top Titanic though and grab the #2 slot though if everything lines up perfectly.
I have been holding at around 650-685 domestic and 1.5-1.6 billion worldwide. I am starting to feel like leaning towards 750 domestic and 2-2.2 billion worldwide....but I do not want to allow myself to go there just yet, I don't want my own hype for this film to cloud my prediction.
I remember the thread of Marvel fanboys acting like idiots proclaiming MCU has toppled Star Wars and Ultron will do 300 mil opening weekend when everyone in their right mind knew joe public did not care about Ultron to the extent they think they did. I do not want to go do the same but with Star Wars. So am sticking with my original prediction.
I have been holding at around 650-685 domestic and 1.5-1.6 billion worldwide. I am starting to feel like leaning towards 750 domestic and 2-2.2 billion worldwide....but I do not want to allow myself to go there just yet, I don't want my own hype for this film to cloud my prediction.
I remember the thread of Marvel fanboys acting like idiots proclaiming MCU has toppled Star Wars and Ultron will do 300 mil opening weekend when everyone in their right mind knew joe public did not care about Ultron to the extent they think they did. I do not want to go do the same but with Star Wars. So am sticking with my original prediction.
dragonyeuw
Member
I think it will at least beat Jurassic World. The marketing is all over the place, it's fucking STAR WARS, and it's continuing on the story from Jedi so we're in uncharted territory. Expect the fanboys to see the film 3,4 times at least. Shit, I saw TPM 3 times and that movie sucked. If *good*, this is cracking 1.8, 1.9 Billion at least.
Ray Wonder
Founder of the Wounded Tagless Children
Damn
Nexus Zero
Member
Avatar 2 is going to be the most embarrassing flop in decades. There was absolutely nothing memorable about the first one, and don't get me wrong I enjoyed it, but to compare that to Star Wars... dear god.
LOL
3 billion at best, 2.5 maybe
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
TFA won't even make more than Avatar 2.
It's not about brand power when it gets to Cameron level. At the end of the day, Cameron just knows how to make movies that people want to watch again and again. The dude is the definition of getting more than your money's worth from buying a ticket and knows how to craft an experience like nobody else.
That's why you can take him to the bank.
It's not about brand power when it gets to Cameron level. At the end of the day, Cameron just knows how to make movies that people want to watch again and again. The dude is the definition of getting more than your money's worth from buying a ticket and knows how to craft an experience like nobody else.
That's why you can take him to the bank.
Laieon
Member
We don't get dinosaur movies very often. Space movies on the other hand....
It's hard to predict the domestic opening weekend due to LOTR and The Hobbit movies being the only references that exist of an IP of this magnitude opening on December. But it'll most probably be over 100 mill.
It's definitely not going to catch Avatar. There's no chance of that. That movie had an insane run at the box office, and that run was actually cut short because it lost screens to newer releases in March. It wasn't pre-release hype that caused it, it was unbelievable worth of mouth, to the point where Avatar was more than just an "event movie." It became an event people had to see. It was something that was considered new and different, a new type of spectacle. SW isn't new, obviously. And this particular flick is all about getting the nostalgic juices flowing to boot. People that reject SW today won't be embracing it two months from now.
I don't think ABADAR Deux will make anything close to Avatar either to be honest. That thing is a one in a generation occurrence.
It's definitely not going to catch Avatar. There's no chance of that. That movie had an insane run at the box office, and that run was actually cut short because it lost screens to newer releases in March. It wasn't pre-release hype that caused it, it was unbelievable worth of mouth, to the point where Avatar was more than just an "event movie." It became an event people had to see. It was something that was considered new and different, a new type of spectacle. SW isn't new, obviously. And this particular flick is all about getting the nostalgic juices flowing to boot. People that reject SW today won't be embracing it two months from now.
I don't think ABADAR Deux will make anything close to Avatar either to be honest. That thing is a one in a generation occurrence.
With the amount of crazy getting splashed about this thread it's genuinely hard to tell those being sarcastic from those that think the Force Awakens box office gross will cancel out the US national debt.
bakerbakes
Member
shutupandtakemymoney.gif
But why would something being good mean it makes 20% more? It may very well mean it passes JW but 20% more is a lot that high up.
Let him dream.
Dreams-Visions
Member
OS totals seem a bit high IMO.
cloud_sleep
Member
What are people gonna do if it doesn't beat Jurassic World? Or Furious 7? I doubt it will happen but I want to live in that world just to see the meltdowns.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
This thread is 1999 all over again with people predicting Phantom Menace gonna take down Titanic because of pre-hype.
If TPM was as well received as it was hyped it would have had better legs than it did and would have taken down Titanic.
Not that I think TFA will take down Avatar. It won't.
cloud_sleep
Member
You don't understand, man. This is STAR WARS!!!!
80s Bad Guy
Banned
I dunno, this feels like a tsunami you mistake for just a big wave. Our collective unconscious needs a prequel cleansing.
Says the guy who believes FA will beat the current December record by over $130M
I agree though that Avatar 2 won't match the first
Quality's got nothing to do with it (as Avatar proved). Some movies just have superhuman legs.
Not being released during the summer? Not having the unexpected universal appeal of dinosaurs?
AdventureRacing
Member
Box office on neogaf tends to be focused more on the US which doesn't really show just how big of a phenomenon avatar was. I was going through the Australian box office numbers the other day and it's just mind boggling. Avatar has essentially grossed twice as much as the nearest competitor. It's hard to see anything coming remotely close to that.
The people predicting star wars will dethrone avatar are basically acting like its 1999 again. We have predictions as high as 4-5 billion WW in this thread, even by 1999 levels of hype that's just crazy.
The people predicting star wars will dethrone avatar are basically acting like its 1999 again. We have predictions as high as 4-5 billion WW in this thread, even by 1999 levels of hype that's just crazy.
CaptainofIndustry
Member
mcz117chief
Member
I am probably the only person in the world who will not see it so...
WW OW: 800,000,000
WW: 4,000,000,000
Here's hoping it beats Gone with the Wind
WW OW: 800,000,000
WW: 4,000,000,000
Here's hoping it beats Gone with the Wind
BattleMonkey
Member
Avatar was a unique event at its time, and a large part was it was a movie made for 3D. Everyone was talking about it as a movie you had to go see in 3D, it was revolutionary new tech at the time, the movie was gonna be amazing. The 3D novelty is gone now, without the gimick Avatar would have not done as well with it's crazy legs. But everyone had to go see Avatar at some point. My folks who hate sci fi even were convinced and went to see it.
People didn't even expect JW to do as well as it did. It's success was a huge surprise.
People didn't even expect JW to do as well as it did. It's success was a huge surprise.
GraveRobberX
Platinum Trophy: Learned to Shit While Upright Again.
OW: $255,000,000
Will become the Golden Standard to chase after
Companies will try to micmic and fail spectacularly of creating hype by using tent pole franchises to break the Golden goose record
$300,000,000 is too much, it could happen but even 24/7 and preview sales of Thursday 8pm count and theatres bumping movie screens to cater still will be far off to reach it
WW OW: $575,000,000
Depends on the territories and hype overseas, they have a rabid fan base, but it's getting the casuals interested in it for them to bulk up the total
Have to sell it as event that can't be missed, show phantom menace long lines archive, people with lightsabers wooing and hollering in the theater, etc.
Use the once in a lifetime event scenario
DOM: $805,000,000 if story decent to good, if a bust gets to $700,000,000
If iconic twist/death bump total by +10%
Also smart use of exclusive posters or trinkets rotated every week for a sustained period of time to bleed the sacrificial goat of money week after week
OS: $1,900,000,000
China will help here immensely, same with domestic thought on story + twist/death
WW: $2,600,000,000 with a change of 10% added if the scenario I placed is in effect
So it would be roughly $2,820,000,000
Only thing that can dethrone it is Avatar 2
Cameron will have to pull the rabbit out of his hat for a thrice time, which should be doable
More screens, make it event/can't miss hype, and use those Star War tricks Disney is using.
Will become the Golden Standard to chase after
Companies will try to micmic and fail spectacularly of creating hype by using tent pole franchises to break the Golden goose record
$300,000,000 is too much, it could happen but even 24/7 and preview sales of Thursday 8pm count and theatres bumping movie screens to cater still will be far off to reach it
WW OW: $575,000,000
Depends on the territories and hype overseas, they have a rabid fan base, but it's getting the casuals interested in it for them to bulk up the total
Have to sell it as event that can't be missed, show phantom menace long lines archive, people with lightsabers wooing and hollering in the theater, etc.
Use the once in a lifetime event scenario
DOM: $805,000,000 if story decent to good, if a bust gets to $700,000,000
If iconic twist/death bump total by +10%
Also smart use of exclusive posters or trinkets rotated every week for a sustained period of time to bleed the sacrificial goat of money week after week
OS: $1,900,000,000
China will help here immensely, same with domestic thought on story + twist/death
WW: $2,600,000,000 with a change of 10% added if the scenario I placed is in effect
So it would be roughly $2,820,000,000
Only thing that can dethrone it is Avatar 2
Cameron will have to pull the rabbit out of his hat for a thrice time, which should be doable
More screens, make it event/can't miss hype, and use those Star War tricks Disney is using.
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
Haven't we already learned to never doubt Cameron?
I agree.
I think Jurassic World serves as the proper point of comparison, not Cameron's films. I see it probably setting opening day records, but then doing similar numbers to JW from that point on.
What is this talk about summer? I don't know if there's something I'm missing but I don't get why it's important.
About the appeal, dinos sure have appeal for kids. But Star Wars has appeal for kids, young and old people.
It won't beat Avatar, but Im' sure as hell will beat JW.
About the appeal, dinos sure have appeal for kids. But Star Wars has appeal for kids, young and old people.
It won't beat Avatar, but Im' sure as hell will beat JW.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I am more curious as to what the Thursday night grosses are going to be. Harry Potter will forever have the midnight record with $43m from that showing, but since midnights are a thing of the past it won't get taken down.
For reference, Age of Ultron had a $27.6m Thursday night that started at 7pm. Avengers numbers for Friday rose sharply after that, while HP was extremely front loaded and the rest of Friday was not as busy since it burned off almost half the grosses in just the midnight showings.
So how front loaded will Force Awakens' Friday be?
For reference, Age of Ultron had a $27.6m Thursday night that started at 7pm. Avengers numbers for Friday rose sharply after that, while HP was extremely front loaded and the rest of Friday was not as busy since it burned off almost half the grosses in just the midnight showings.
So how front loaded will Force Awakens' Friday be?
I am probably the only person in the world who will not see it so...
WW OW: 800,000,000
WW: 4,000,000,000
Here's hoping it beats Gone with the Wind
Minus 1 ticket cause I'm not seeing it either. As shitty of a movie Avatar is, I don't think it'll get beat by Star Wars but I can see Star Wars beating Titantic
Well, if you're pretty sure....,
People think that Decenber represents some insane barrier that will stop people from seeing the movie. Even though avatar and titanic were both released in this month.
If people want to see this movie. Nothing will stop them. Star Wars is an event. Not just another movie.
I don't understand why. Everyone has holidays in December. Its' actually a month that everyone I know goes to the cinema.
I agree with Star Wars feels like an event. Not Avatar tier, but a big one. Everyone I know is going to see it, fans and not fans of SW.
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