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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Bitch Pudding
Member
That depends. If the price gap between PS4 und XBOX One keeps the same as right now, then everything else than a clear win for PS4 would be astonishing. To win November MS has to do the same as last year: Undercut PS4's price significantly, meaning were are talking about sub 250 US$ XBOX One bundurus.
November is already a win for ps4, cod bundle 7 battlefront bundle is all you need to win + price parity trump card.
In order for xbox one to win they have to drop the price to $199 cheaper than the wii u. And I do not see that happening at all.
See I don't agree with this line of thinking. A PS4 win imo would be very surprising.
I mean freaking Halo 5, XB1's premier franchise just launched with stacks of pre-orders behind it no doubt. 360 owners probably picked this time to upgrade.
An MS win has always been on the cards even in light of the PS4 price drop which has a bigger impact in Nov-Dec I feel.
slavesnyder
Member
Pew, you leave for a few hours and the thread has grown too much for my eyeballs to proceed.
You need to consider a couple of details, however.
We know that the combined sales of Halo 5 and the console bundle were $400M. If this sum is all consoles, that would mean 800k Xbox One bundles sold. Obviously, some games were sold without the hardware, let's say 3M, which translates to some $150M in software sales.
We are left with $250M for consoles i.e. 500k pieces. If 75% of this is in the US, that would be 375k. Also, in Amazon rankings the Halo 5 bundle was the strongest seller out of all Xbox bundles, nothing else came close. 400k console sales is probably a reasonable estimate.
PS4 got its first official price drop. It has sold like hot cakes. More than 400k is definitely not outside the realm of possibility.
It's gonna be int^H^H^Hclose.
Welfare
Member
Yep, unless there are some insane deals for the XB1 during Black Friday, I think the PS4 will win November by 200K or more.
Hush up, Geralt! You ain't fooling us! We know you're running both accounts because both of you use the same avatar!
I'm kidding.
On a more serious note, I didn't know there was an XB1 bundle that comes with a gift card plus free game? Unless you mean GOW Ultimate that is included in the bundle. Anyway, if the XB1 doesn't have any better deals that add more than just gift cards and remains priced at $299 for BF, I think the PS4 will win BF easily. Those Battlefront bundles are gonna be insane!
I thought those numbers where too retailers and not sold thru?
The number were sold to retailers not customers.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Still no One Piece today, so could be better, I guess.
link source?
So using those numbers to predict how many consoles sold to costumers is pointless because we have no idea how many bundles and games thar still sit on shelves.
Might be, I don't remember the exact wording MS used or if the statement was clarified later. If that's the case, my numbers are exaggerated. But that doesn't really matter, because there are so many assumptions and guesses there anyway. Still, I would be a little surprised, if Xbox One sold more than 400k last month in NPD.
Actually, i see some like 1.3 million for PS4 and 1.1 million for XB1.
I will probabily change those predictions, depend on many thing.
wapplew
Member
Because best lineup in Xbox history vs nothing narrative is so powerful people actually believe it.
Primethius
Banned
I don't think too many people expected a $299 UC bundle for BF, so I don't see why it would be out of the question.
I was expecting $299 vs $349 for the holidays.
ethomaz
Banned
My prediction about the Halo 5 LE Bundle is...
200-300k NPD
300-400k WW * about 100k outside US *
The range I added because the bundle didn't get sold out... so they sold less then they expected... it it was sold then my prediction was the high number.
Yep, so far that sounds very reasonable. I too think the XB1 will be down compared to November last year because of the lack of insane deals.
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
Announcing their hardware win live, smart stretegy by Nintendo.
I believe Microsoft didn't specified if the number is sell in or through.
ethomaz
Banned
I was pretty sure Sony go with $299 in BF deals.
I expected this year $299 vs $249.
But seems like MS don't have more room to waste money like last year.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I don't think most retailers are giving a free game with Xbox One. Not from the Black Friday ads I have seen so far. I think Dell has the best deal similar to that.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I think that person is talking about November.
Yeah and thats why I don't think it is sell through, we don't get any sell through from Xbox longer.
Not selling out mean sell less than expected? This doesn't make sense for me.
If a product sell out, demand was beyond expected, but have stock doesn't mean that sales are below projected.
slavesnyder
Member
I don't get this Best Lineup stuff anyway.
It's a normal lineup plus a new Halo. That's fine, but is it really a sensation?
The biggest titles in the lineup are the same that PS4 has: Multiplats.
The narrative was Microsoft's, not ours.
I see what you're trying to say though bear in mind that $400m includes all Halo 5 related transactions so that would have to include Microtransactions, Halo accessories etc. Plus it's difficult to get the exact USA split of that $400m.
So I;m not totally on board with the maths there..Either way, I don't see how a PS4 price drop can topple Halo. It could happen of course, but MS should win October albeit by a slim margin.
DriftingSpirit
Member
It does make me wonder where they will go from here. What will be the slogan next holiday?
"Home of the greatest TPS on the market"
You're thinking about the old Halo. If this was a Halo 3 hype situation, Xbox One would easily beat PS4, but Halo 5 apparently is selling significantly less.
mejin
Member
After Sony cut the price early october to $350, it was pretty much settled BF would have $299 PS4.
Source is in the pr statement itself if you read it properly.
From what I'm seeing Xbox One deals on BF are better than PS4 because all bundles are $50 off, plus other benefits. Walmart for example is giving $30 gift card for Xbox One but not for PS4.
But with Black Ops 3 and Battlefront bundles selling earlier in the month, even if PS4 lose Black Friday, I doubt will sell less than Xbox One in november.
But with Black Ops 3 and Battlefront bundles selling earlier in the month, even if PS4 lose Black Friday, I doubt will sell less than Xbox One in november.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I don't think that $30 gift card really makes a difference, like last years ~$120 gap.
I agree it's definitely not the Halo of old. I was one of those in the infamous UK thread commenting on the series significant decline.
Still I just think it should be enough to outsell PS4 and is the number one reason for the crazy amount of 360 owners to upgrade. If they don't now, then when the hell do they do it?
Then again, I thought Titanfall had that March on lock and we know how that went haha.
Nothing will come close to last year, Sony only made a bundle with GTA V and TLoU at $399, while Xbox One was at $329 with benefits.
This year Xbox One has better deals but PS4 is much more competitive, so even if Microsoft wins BF will be a close margin.
Darth Smurf X
Member
Is it too early for popcorn-related GIFs?
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
I think people are going to underestimate the massive deals MS will come out with for that day. Regardless, how many more hours until results? I want to see this place burn, regardless of who wins.
Can anyone confirm, is this actually their best lineup ever for fall? Because if so, holy shit that's terrible. They literally picked out 2 summer releases of games to include them as fall lineup, and they were remasters. I think it's a great line up mind you, but best ever going through 3 gens? Lawd have mercy.slavesnyder said:
My prediction is that Xbox One outsold PS4, but I will not be surprised if not.
Primethius
Banned
You and Javin are indeed correct. I don't know what I was thinking of.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Walmart not coming up with a crazy XBOX One deal for BF indicates your're wrong on this one.
Price cuts have always been a strong driver in sales spikes, and this is the first price cut for PS4, so im expecting Xbox to lose. Halo nor Xbox command the position they once did, may change next gen but feels like things are now set.
That's begging the question: you assume that 360 owners are going to upgrade to Xbox One.
What's your guess on Xbox One sales last month?
I'm updating mine in case there's some bunker action...
Perhaps you were thinking of the deals that were going on a few days ago? One or two had a free controller plus a free game with the XB1 GoW Ultimate bundle IIRC. That deal is far better than what BF has to offer currently.
ethomaz
Banned
It is a custom limited console.
3rdamention
Member
Thjs thread has been an absolute Classic. I assume that since it is NPD Day, we may have some people wander in this thread and wonder what is going on!
Here is a quick summary of what you can find in this thread, in no particular order:
* A summary of Amazon Monthly Charts for October and November
* A discussion of how "big" is really "big" when it comes to preorders on Amazon.
* November NPD Predictions
* XB1 has October locked down, for sure
* PS4 has October locked down, for sure
* Abidel support session as he fears this Black Fridays madness
* Whether Tomb Raider will chart in November and why.
* The length of the tentacles on Splatoon.
* Black Friday Deals
* The effectiveness of Gift Cards with a purchase on Black Friday
* The design of the Star Wars Limted PS4 Bundle
* Oh, yeah, and some NPD Predictions for October!
And about 10 other things! And it was glorious!
Here is a quick summary of what you can find in this thread, in no particular order:
* A summary of Amazon Monthly Charts for October and November
* A discussion of how "big" is really "big" when it comes to preorders on Amazon.
* November NPD Predictions
* XB1 has October locked down, for sure
* PS4 has October locked down, for sure
* Abidel support session as he fears this Black Fridays madness
* Whether Tomb Raider will chart in November and why.
* The length of the tentacles on Splatoon.
* Black Friday Deals
* The effectiveness of Gift Cards with a purchase on Black Friday
* The design of the Star Wars Limted PS4 Bundle
* Oh, yeah, and some NPD Predictions for October!
And about 10 other things! And it was glorious!
slavesnyder
Member
This is always the wrong perspective you guys have.
Without gift card it would do even worse.
Noone expects this move to be a gamechanger, but it's better than nothing.