Melchiah
Member
Never visited Driveclub or The Order: 1886 threads, when they failed at launch both critically and commercially?
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GameStop: Halo 5 digital sales are in line with other AAA game releases
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Never visited Driveclub or The Order: 1886 threads, when they failed at launch both critically and commercially?
PanicFreak
Member
I honestly don't think they can fix this. I think people are moving away from Halo but the game can be profitable for at least the next couple of iterations. I said this in the NPD thread but if Halo 6 doesn't grow the franchise or continues to decline, Microsoft would be smart to get them working on a new franchise. 343 is a talented developer that is shackled to a franchise that brings a lot of weight and they are in a no-win situation where if they change things up, the game will be panned by fans but if they don't, it will be panned by critics.
If I were in charge, I would cancel the small Halo projects (Spartan Assault, etc.) and start devoting that time to new IP to try to attract new fans.
I disagree with the "new IP" route. Halo is an amazing IP that's being mishandled in many ways.
The mismatch in the marketing campaign with the actual campaign being a real issue.
I'll admit, based on Hunt the Truth and the Chief vs. Locke commercials, and the Sprint web series: I was foaming at the mouth ready to play some Halo 5.
And then the reviews came out, and the campaign happened and fucking REQ packs and that wrecked it for me.
There was so much hype in this big Chief vs. Locke showdown...but it never happens. Chief with the poncho and the empty Cortana chip
..and... It... Never...happens. People talk about story stuff from the trailers in Destiny never happening... Halo 5 is guilty as well.
Basically what I'm saying is, 343 needs to get whoever is working on their hype machine working on their game campaign. ASAP.
Edit: I'd completely be down with the next game letting you create a Spartan... Have a hub area that lets you go on co-op missions around the Galaxy taking out Covenant, Promethean, or Flood forces for Spartan bucks to buy newer and better Spartan armor, also compete in simulated Spartan vs. Spartan PVP matches. And each game area can be gone to again and again for bounty missio.... Okay okay it's fucking Destiny... :/
PanicFreak
Member
I'm not saying that they should scrap Halo. I'm saying that I would have whoever is in charge of the iOS games develop new IP in the same vein.
I have loved 343's Halo output but it seems that the market hasn't responded to it. I think it would be smart for them to start planning for a post-Halo world and test some of their more innovative ideas at a smaller scale while still bankrolling the studio with AAA Halo games. The day is coming where the sales of the game won't justify the gigantic marketing campaigns Microsoft devotes to it.
This is also the first Halo designed specifically for esports. You have to remember that "competitive Halo" was a complete accident and that Bungie themselves worked against making the game hardcore competitive as time went on, for fear of alienating a large part of their market. While I too am enjoying the return to a more competitive game, you have to remember that people have been telling Bungie/343 for over ten years what to do to make it this way. This is the only installment where they listened.
Neuromancer
Member
I wonder how much Halo 5 cost to make and market compared to other big games.
So now that we have moved on to atually discussing the game, the sales and the future of the franchise I'd like to ask a question.
What do you feel is the primary cause for the sales decline we have seen with Halo 5?
Some of the contributing factors that have been noted in this thread thus far have been
For the record I'm not saying I agree with all these points they are just the ones that I can recall being brought up thus far. Of course if you can't really narrow things down to a single primary factor please highlight two or three. Then please elaborate why you feel that this has (or these have) been a prevalent driving factor(s) in the sales decline we have seen for the series.
Personally I think the exclusion of splitscreen was the biggest contributing factor as many of the remaining fanbase saw this as a core feature of the franchise. I'm still not sure why this decision was made except in the effort to potentially push more sales of consoles so that friends could play the game together online instead of using one console. I think its fairly obvious that did not work if that was the reasoning. It seems to me that many fans really took the exclusion of this feature as a sign that Halo just isn't Halo anymore and as a result just decided not to buy the game and possibly abandon the series altogether.It also didnt help that the Halo fanbase tends to be a bit older these days so this change really eliminated any play 343 had at nostalgia with a lot of these older folks who associated the series with splitscreen.
Yes before you respond I know they said it had to do with the switch to 60fps but I just don't buy that. There is no way their engine is completely unscalable or that they couldnt have utilized the various methods they used to maintain 60fps to also allow for split screen (texture resolution scaling, dynamic resolution, dynamic shadow detail, etc etc). They had lots of tools to use here in order to make it possible even if they couldn't (for some unknown reason) reduce the framerate to 30fps instead of 60.
What do you feel is the primary cause for the sales decline we have seen with Halo 5?
Some of the contributing factors that have been noted in this thread thus far have been
For the record I'm not saying I agree with all these points they are just the ones that I can recall being brought up thus far. Of course if you can't really narrow things down to a single primary factor please highlight two or three. Then please elaborate why you feel that this has (or these have) been a prevalent driving factor(s) in the sales decline we have seen for the series.
Personally I think the exclusion of splitscreen was the biggest contributing factor as many of the remaining fanbase saw this as a core feature of the franchise. I'm still not sure why this decision was made except in the effort to potentially push more sales of consoles so that friends could play the game together online instead of using one console. I think its fairly obvious that did not work if that was the reasoning. It seems to me that many fans really took the exclusion of this feature as a sign that Halo just isn't Halo anymore and as a result just decided not to buy the game and possibly abandon the series altogether.It also didnt help that the Halo fanbase tends to be a bit older these days so this change really eliminated any play 343 had at nostalgia with a lot of these older folks who associated the series with splitscreen.
Yes before you respond I know they said it had to do with the switch to 60fps but I just don't buy that. There is no way their engine is completely unscalable or that they couldnt have utilized the various methods they used to maintain 60fps to also allow for split screen (texture resolution scaling, dynamic resolution, dynamic shadow detail, etc etc). They had lots of tools to use here in order to make it possible even if they couldn't (for some unknown reason) reduce the framerate to 30fps instead of 60.
igordennis
Member
Yep. I wouldn't want to be the person responsible for that decision. So many things could and will go wrong either way you choose.
I'd like to agree with that criticism and add that the multiplayer sucks too. Single purpose maps, fewer maps than most Halos, all the maps are pretty mediocre compared to more iconic maps in past games, BTB maps are amateurish forge remakes not new maps, no voting for game type, fewer playlists, no objective playlists, boring game types, no unranked playlists. I mean why the fuck do I have to go to an external app to vote for the weekend playlist? No kill cams, no population counters, it's a lot of little things that add to sub par experience. If people like it good for them, I think it's the shittiest Halo by a wide margin.
SatansReverence
Hipster Princess
Nightengale
Member
Included $250 SKU assuming a 2% product mix, and revised down controllers shipment to equal of LE consoles shipped.
CosmicQueso
Member
Thank you for adding that 7:3 scenario.
I'm going with that. Awesome stuff.
I'm going with that. Awesome stuff.
Interficium
Banned
Halo fans just straight up delusional at this point.
I've made it to the 8 or 9th mission and have completely lost interest.
I'm on the fence if I want to trade it towards Battlefront or Fallout 4
The Mad Draklor
Member
FIFA is up there because it's WW and the Microtransactions (Ultimate Team) make boat loads of money.
Apparently not. NVM.
Yea. The engine wasn't designed for spilt screen was the reason it couldn't handle it. It's such a cop out excuse by 343. It just wasn't a priority for them.
CreateNowSleepLater
Member
Baffling I agree. It was probably in every way the opposite of where I wanted the story to go.
So you think it'll be somewhere around 30%? Thats significantly higher than the industry average of 20%. 30% would be the absolute highest digital ratio I would expect to see.
Nightengale
Member
Well, there's a few factors in my calculation of the overall picture:
- personally I think my numbers are conservative, looking at how aggressive MS is willing to be with big titles that they're very confident in. Like I said, I put 1.3 for US+ Canada, but my own gut feel is 1.5 for US alone. Of course, I can't justify that since it's tales from the arse.
- my numbers don't account for higher revenue contributions from Europe, where the exchange rate increases the overall revenue per SKU.
Personally I think 22-25% in the launch week is where I'd peg it.
Yep. I was thinking along pretty much the same lines. Great work on those tables by the way. A bit confusing at first glance but I understand what they are getting at now.
ethomaz
Banned
That estimate if true lol
Nightengale
Member
The digital FUD is just frustrating to read.
Even without doing these tables, off the top of my head I was SMH at all these hurr durr 50% digital bullshit because even the rough calculations of a 50% digital ratio would mean a revenue of least 500-600 million.
I hope I am not coming across as arrogant here. It's not like I'm expecting everyone to analysis it the way I did. But a lot of the defense of Halo's digital potential MAKES NO FINANCIAL SENSE AT ANYTHING ABOVE 30% because then it contradicts MS's own 400 million ceiling.
So you see, y'all who thinks GameStop is lying? It's entirely possible for GameStop to be telling the truth just as MS did with its 400 million figure, and lol and behold, the numbers actually look reasonable!
CosmicQueso
Member
Pure guessing>>>>>>>>chartz>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>sd
Easy Breezy
Neo Member
Changes to the formula and the H4/MCC train wrecks are the main causes for the decline imo.
Anecdotal but that's the feedback I'm getting to the changes from online/real-life friends that I played H2/3 with. H4 turned a lot of my friends off the series and the MCC seems to have been the final blow for some. I'm not sure why I even stick around with Halo (especially after the MCC) after how much the changes have annoyed me since 343 took over, maybe because Halo has been such a big part of my gaming life (and why I play games today) that I feel compelled to buy the next game.
Neuromancer
Member
You think Superdata is that bad huh? You have to admit though it's a pretty good name.
Popping in to say great work Nightingale on those scenarios. Somewhere in-between .25 and .3 seems reasonable to me, and I like your revisions bringing down the controller numbers.
Primarily interested to see how the game does in the long run. I think it will certainly out last in terms of player population, and I think monthly free content updates and the general strong word of mouth surrounding multiplayer will carry the game for months to come.
Primarily interested to see how the game does in the long run. I think it will certainly out last in terms of player population, and I think monthly free content updates and the general strong word of mouth surrounding multiplayer will carry the game for months to come.
I think I like this version of that idiom better. It's more modern.
Great work btw.
What the fuck is going on here, no time to read all but glanced through. I dont know whats upsetting more. People who believes Halo is still the juggernaut it once was? Or the people who fail to acknowledge its still sells better than any first party game even the completion? Or people who who genuinely think Halo is dead?
On th side, why would GS even know or have any idea about how much MS or Sony sells on their digital store? What the fucking fuck? lol
on the very side note, Halo 5 is so good man. Best playing halo since Halo 2.
On th side, why would GS even know or have any idea about how much MS or Sony sells on their digital store? What the fucking fuck? lol
on the very side note, Halo 5 is so good man. Best playing halo since Halo 2.
Agreed. The whole idea of an engine making splitscreen impossible just seems like a total crock of BS to me especially when said engine already has so much dynamic scalinig going on.
Can you clarify specifically what changes to the formula you are reffering to? Which ones do you feel had the biggest negative impact? I think you are totally right about MCC being the final straw/nail in the coffin for lots of fans. They really really screwed the franchise over by releasing it in the state it was in.
Oh man for real? well nvm I guess zhuge might be wrong on this one. Anything less dependable than chartzz is obviously terrible.
I was nodding vigorously in agreement while reading this entire post. Agreed on all fronts here. Also
is pretty much my new favorite saying now. Please make this a thing internet. Please.
Easy Breezy
Neo Member
Most people I know liked the original Halo formula (no AA's, sprint, etc.) and feel like it's become too similar to other FPS's on the market. It's hard to narrow it down to one specific change as the majority of them just say that it doesn't feel like Halo; although in my opinion sprint has had the biggest negative impact as it changed the map design and how the game flows compared to the original trilogy.
343 have at least backpedaled on most of the stuff they introduced in H4 but it's probably too late for a lot of fans. To this day it boggles my mind that 343 doubled down (and went 10 steps further) on the formula Bungie introduced in Reach even after seeing the negative reactions to the changes.
Ok? But going into MCC and playing Halo2A showed how dated the game was. there's no way you introduce a vanilla halo like that in this market and expect it to all of a sudden recapture H3 numbers. It's just not going to happen. We're in a completely different landscape.
Halo 5 is a pretty good game, and a lot of people are enjoying it. Don't understand the doom and gloom. For an exclusive title the numbers will come out just fine (especially compared to other exclusives)
Yea sprint seems to be a big one just going by the community response. There was also a pretty big outcry about ADS but that seemed to fall flat once 343 said it didnt impact gameplay in the way people were expecting. But you're right a lot of former fans just comment on how the game feels. Mainly that it no longer feels unique in the market like it used to so they have no reason to pay it along with any number of their FPS games they might buy.
It's interesting that you mention the possible impact of sprint on level/map design. I hadn't really thought of that. How do you feel it has changed the way the levels/maps are made?
I'm pretty sure MS doesn't see a 70% decline in their flagship franchise as "just fine" and neither do most other people. Theres a far cry between "doom and gloom" and acknowledging/discussing a substantial decline. But you know this because it has been explained to you multiple times already.
Description
Member
This is worded so much like a corporation's consumer survey it feels.... awkward.
But I digress... I think it's pointless to try and nail down the consumer market based on the data points of what is a very opinionated forum. I believe it is a combination of all of the items you listed.
If you wanted me to hazard a guess (which is dangerous given how much facts and reason are appreciated over anecdotal evidence and personal opinion) I would say the two biggest items holding it back are:
1) FPS market competition
2) Poor reception / technical errors of previous two games
One of which can possibly? be remedied and one of which will remain true. I don't believe we'll ever see a Halo game as successful as they used to be.
Triggerhappytel
Member
I still think that Destiny existing must have had some negative impact on Halo. I mean, the two are fairly similar and Destiny has been a huge deal over the past year. Maybe that's satiating Halo fans and they don't feel the need to buy Halo 5 yet as a result.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
DIng ding ding, we have a winner. Free pizza for you son
Yep, let's keep pushing in the direction that even halo/bungie fans didn't want... way to go
And the guys who like halo 4/5 just say "I need sprint" no you dont man, a map designed without sprint won't hurt the game, it just changes encounters and map design (which is a big big deal or how a game plays and feels). 343 and MS just doesn't realize what they are doing to halo, they just keep looking a cod. I honestly think 343 plays more cod than they do old halos when designing their games.
I have said it over and over but halo fans DID not go to cod or bf. They simply didn't go to any game. They just like halo, that's it. Not reach, 4 or 5 halo either.
Your sales are down, you don't have 3 million peope buying your game for a reason. The game speaks for it self, bad maps, sprint, etc
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Jack The Nipper
Banned
He will probably end up wrong here. if the sales are right near 900k plus 200k whatever (digital)
I think there will be first party games on both beating this more than likely and have in the past.
I'd say it's highly likely more than probably.
Also, let's not discount Nintendo from the equation.
Well they forgot to make a social playlist and only focused on the hardcore so I guess they are still struggling to figure out that market balance
It is still one of the better selling exclusives. There aren't many that would move over 1million units in a week these days.
Bloodborne didn't do it, neither did Titanfall, splatoon didn't do it so I don't think there's been a first party game to top this launch yet.
Surely UC4 will sell really well. UC3 did about 1.1 mil in the first week
The Artisan
Member
-sigh- you know, not that it'll make a difference, but just to be clear, I didn't actually claim the xbone could sell to 1% of china's population, reviewtechusa did and I was an idiot for thinking it was a reasonable prediction. and it's haunted me (on the gaf) ever since.
igordennis
Member
Dont take it too seriously man. You at least learned from (some of) your mistakes, thats more than i can say for a lot of gaf.
ShadowsFell
Member
I pretty much agree with almost all of this.
Interficium
Banned
The fact that HaloGAF thinks things like reticle bloom and sprint are the cause of Halo's mainstream sales decline is perpetually hilarious to me.
The Mad Draklor
Member
It's okay. People using the 1% of China joke is not meant to be a slight against you. What matters most is that you learned from it.
Duly noted.
Ninja Sharingan
Banned
Xbox exclusives have been the talking point of GAF this season, not for all the right reasons. It's been really quiet interesting to see. Some of these threads just seem like madness to me. Is it wrong that I enjoy to see some of this down right craziness? 
what do you think it is? as someone who played halo 1 a lot, got halo 2 but then got shipped overseas and didn't have my xbox anymore, missed out on 3, played reach, 4 and 5, it's always interesting to listen to what people think are the reasons.