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[notaskwid]

I understand that you're angry and you want someone to blame, but in my defence, I'm not as obstinate, naive, or deluded as you think I am. My reasoning on Brexit is fairly considered and complex; a large part of me wanted to vote remain and I hesitated in the polling booth. In the end, after many months of what you would call extensive 'introspection', I gradually shifted from a strongly pro-EU position towards favouring leaving the EU. All that introspection and reasoning doesn't mean that I can't still be wrong, of course; I constantly question whether I've misjudged the evidence in front of me and I can't be certain that I haven't. But I'm a long way from an uninformed optimist; indeed, I don't know it for sure, but I have a hunch that I'd comfortably fall within the 75th percentile or higher of what you might call 'informed pessimists' on NeoGAF, at least when it comes to the study and review of public policy in the British and European context.

What would it take to make me think that Brexit is/was a disaster for Britain? Clear, substantial and permanent declines in economic output ('clear' meaning a consensus of accumulated and decisive evidence, not isolated data points or changes within margins of error; 'substantial' meaning severe decline relative to previous UK growth rates and European comparators; 'permanent' meaning declines across a 5-10 year period and beyond as I think we need to measure Brexit beyond the transition years, which are not likely to reveal the real long-term impacts on UK growth and productivity). I would also accept serious, substantial and long-term declines in public services (operating costs, quality of outcomes, efficiency, and so on - as much as such things can be measured and linked to Brexit), sharp and sustained rises in inflation and the cost of living, declines in skilled immigration, declines in start-up growth, declines in foreign direct investment, declines in national productivity, sharp and permanent declines in imports and export industries, and so on, as supporting evidence.

I also recognise that there have already been some negative consequences of Brexit; the depreciation of GBP, the mutilation of Toblerone, etc. And there are worrying indicators of discontent in financial services, among doctors and nurses, and high-skilled European professionals, and in other sectors. But so far I don't think any of these things can reasonably be said to amount to, or have yet materialised as, full-blown national disasters at the present moment in time. In other words, I think that if Brexit is to be a disaster, I don't think that disaster has directly impacted us yet. None of this is good but we have yet to see how these things will play out in the long term. It's theoretically possible that arrangements may be made to mitigate damage in this sectors and areas; that the banks will offshore some Euro clearing jobs but keep the bulk of the work in London; that Hunt's mismanagement of the NHS is a seperate issue from Brexit and that conflating the two will not help us fix the problems arising from either; that new systems will be able to attract high-skilled talent from other continents to offset losses from Europe.

I'm not a naive optimist. If Brexit is a clear disaster I will need to accept it. But I can't yet say that I was wrong about Brexit because it hasn't happened yet; it's a vast, complex and entirely novel piece of public policy and it'll be some time before I'm able to say whether it has, on balance, succeeded or failed. I'm not going to explain why I voted the way I did, because I don't think anyone here (including myself) is going to change their mind on this, so it's a pointless argument. But I did want to chip in from a leave perspective.

That's a merry post, but I'm still to see a valid reason why leaving the EU is better for the UK than staying, all I see are negatives.

 

[GeordieMark]

I'm not buying the doomsday scenarios on here and find some of the Brexit related posting pretty awful. It's funny that thus far GAF completely misread the Brexit Ref outcome, the US Presidential race, and Jeremy Corbyn, so for all of the "GAF is more intelligent and enlightened" crowing, the track record suggests we get it wrong as often as we get it right.

 

[excelsiorlef]

I'm not buying the doomsday scenarios on here and find some of the Brexit related posting pretty awful. It's funny that thus far GAF completely misread the Brexit Ref outcome, the US Presidential race, and Jeremy Corbyn, so for all of the "GAF is more intelligent and enlightened" crowing, the track record suggests we get it wrong as often as we get it right.

I mean not getting polling right doesn't mean not understanding the consequences of actions...

We can be wrong on Trump's victory while still being right and what that victory means...

 

[Plasma]

Should be an option in the poll for 08/11/2013 the Thor 2 Dark World release date.

 

[Pyramid head]

Very intrigued to see how it plays out. It's going to be a turbulent time for sure, but I'm bullish about our future.

And I say this as a left-leaning 26-year-old who voted to remain.

I have a suspicion 'how it will play out' will result in more than a few leave voters lying to their children's faces should the subject of their vote come up in discussion in a decade or two.

 

[GeordieMark]

I mean not getting polling right doesn't mean not understanding the consequences of actions...

We can be wrong on Trump's victory while still being right and what that victory means...

Nope, but it does show we can get carried away with group-think. I voted remain and believe it was for the best that we stay in the EU, but I'm not about to give up hope and start expecting everything to go to shit. Some of us are going way over the top.

 

[Horsefly]

I have a suspicion 'how it will play out' will result in more than a few leave voters lying to their children's faces should the subject of their vote come up in discussion in a decade or two.

I do wonder if that will equal the number of remain voters that cover up how hysterical they got over their emotional attachment to a political union and trading bloc



The dumbassness is strong on both sides

 

[Mr.Fletcher]

I have a suspicion 'how it will play out' will result in more than a few leave voters lying to their children's faces should the subject of their vote come up in discussion in a decade or two.

I hope not. People shouldn't feel ashamed for voting one way or another.

Edit: Ha forgive me, got the wrong post!

 

[Bits N Pieces]

I have a suspicion 'how it will play out' will result in more than a few leave voters lying to their children's faces should the subject of their vote come up in discussion in a decade or two.

I know of colleagues who voted No in the Scottish Independence Referendum now saying that they voted Yes, lol.

 

[TeddyBoy]

I do wonder if that will equal the number of remain voters that cover up how hysterical they got over their emotional attachment to a political union and trading bloc



The dumbassness is strong on both sides

Well I love the part where I've never been forced into a European war in the my lifetime, that's sort of pretty major to me.

 

[dh4niel]

Bye Britain

Was nice knowing you

We'll be back.

Spoiler

WITH A VENGEANCE!

 

[Rourkey]

I voted remain and have lost friends over it all but am now a bit fed up with the Blair, Farron, Clegg and co who try and deny the result. The British people voted to regain control of the countries borders and ultimate sovereignty, they were told there would be an economic cost but they voted for it anyway.

Almost all my friends voted leave and all tell me they knew it would cost them, the general concensous was that people will have work harder but it "would be better for their children"

We now have to get the best out of the situation we can, if the EU won't let us remain in the single market and control our borders then so be it a "hard" Brexit it is.

I don't see any other way of squaring the circle of leave voters expectations.

 

[Horsefly]

Well I love the part where I've never been forced into a European war in the my lifetime, that's sort of pretty major to me.

And with that response I stand by my point about hysteria.

 

[oti]

We'll be back.

Spoiler

WITH A VENGEANCE!

Aw shiiieeet. Just keep selling After Eight, okay? Then I'm good.

 

[whyamihere]

.

lol perfect.

 

[TeddyBoy]

And with that response I stand by my point about hysteria.

The EU was founded with the goal of making a pan-European war impossible.

I can't say what would have happened without the EU, but I can say it has accomplished that task adequately (the EU actions in the Yugoslav Wars are it's only major faults so far).

 

[electroshockwave]

I'm not buying the doomsday scenarios on here and find some of the Brexit related posting pretty awful. It's funny that thus far GAF completely misread the Brexit Ref outcome, the US Presidential race, and Jeremy Corbyn, so for all of the "GAF is more intelligent and enlightened" crowing, the track record suggests we get it wrong as often as we get it right.

This post is like when people bring up sales to counter legitimate criticism of something.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Nope, but it does show we can get carried away with group-think. I voted remain and believe it was for the best that we stay in the EU, but I'm not about to give up hope and start expecting everything to go to shit. Some of us are going way over the top.

Good lord group think... dude the research is out there about the effects of leaving... but sure the concerns are group think...

 

[dejay]

God speed Britannia.

 

[GameAddict411]

Time to reap what you sowed. I am pretty sure everyone not tied to the country is already bailing.

 

[jelly]

God speed Britannia.

Sink in the waves.

 

[UpDownLeftRight]

Time to reap what you sowed. I am pretty sure everyone not tied to the country is already bailing.

Yeah that's great for the 48% that never asked for it. I suppose the US should all be celebrating Trump too?

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Seems in keeping with the general level of planning. Fuck all



Saying that Brexit is somehow less recoverable than Trump is rediculous...They are both disasters and many arguments can be made that Trump has further reaching effects than Brexit. Brexit in the long term is also 'recoverable'...the UK could of course re-join the EU in the future...

Rejoining the EU doesn't put the UK in the position it was in pre Brexit vote. We will lose concessions we will NEVER get again once we leave. We would never be allowed to keep the pound, for instance if we were to rejoin the EU in 20 years.

 

[Joni]

Bye bye. Please leave Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and 60 billion at the door.

 

[Bleepey]

I'm not buying the doomsday scenarios on here and find some of the Brexit related posting pretty awful. It's funny that thus far GAF completely misread the Brexit Ref outcome, the US Presidential race, and Jeremy Corbyn, so for all of the "GAF is more intelligent and enlightened" crowing, the track record suggests we get it wrong as often as we get it right.

Hilary won the popular vote within the margin of error of polls. That said I was one of the few people who was shitting a brick about Trump winning weeks prior and I was told that I and TYT were full of shitl. I did make a told you so thread about it and was banned for a month. People were uncertain about the outcome of Brexit. As for Corbyn I don't know, I have been of the mind he's been a bit shit.

 

[GameAddict411]

I'm not buying the doomsday scenarios on here and find some of the Brexit related posting pretty awful. It's funny that thus far GAF completely misread the Brexit Ref outcome, the US Presidential race, and Jeremy Corbyn, so for all of the "GAF is more intelligent and enlightened" crowing, the track record suggests we get it wrong as often as we get it right.

I am not sure what you are trying to say here? How was GAF was wrong about the presidential elections? We followed the polls and they were skewed pretty badly last year. The predictions sorrounding Trump's are actually worse than what people on here thought they are going to be. Brexit will have some massive repercussions and what GAF thinks doesn't really matter. It's just logical.

 

[Horsefly]

The EU was founded with the goal of making a pan-European war impossible.

I can't say what would have happened without the EU, but I can say it has accomplished that task adequately (the EU actions in the Yugoslav Wars are it's only major faults so far).

The League of Nations was intended for exactly the same purpose.

Also, unless I'm misremembering things, the EU was created in 1993 with the Maastricht Treaty, almost 50 years after the Second World War. That was 50 years of general peace without freedom of movement, without a single currency, without rules around the straightness of our cucumbers (though I grant you this last point may not be anything to do with the EU and may be related to some of the previous bodies that existed to promote trade and interoperability between European countries without sacrificing sovereignty).

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Not surprised that some progressives are defending Brexit.

Isolationism is cool for some liberals.

 

[Ashes]

Not surprised that some progressives are defending Brexit.

Isolationism is cool for some liberals.

Tbh they're not saying that, and are moreso just fed up with it all. It really is time to buckle up and get on with it. Might be stereotypical stiff upper lip stuff, but it's a common enough sentiment.

 

[Ricky 7]

I was hoping they would delay it for about 2 years, too soon =/

 

[chadskin]

Yeah that's great for the 48% that never asked for it. I suppose the US should all be celebrating Trump too?

Hitler lost the presidential election in 1932 to Hindenburg and his party never received an absolute majority of the votes in any of the free parliamentary elections.

Countries usually have to own their leaders and decisions, regardless of how they may have come about internally. It's fine to dislike it personally but there's no way around the fact the UK voted to leave the EU and the US voted for Trump.

The League of Nations was intended for exactly the same purpose.

Also, unless I'm misremembering things, the EU was created in 1993 with the Maastricht Treaty, almost 50 years after the Second World War. That was 50 years of general peace without freedom of movement, without a single currency, without rules around the straightness of our cucumbers (though I grant you this last point may not be anything to do with the EU and may be related to some of the previous bodies that existed to promote trade and interoperability between European countries without sacrificing sovereignty).

Gee, I wonder what was going on in Europe between the Second World War and December 26, 1991.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Not surprised that some progressives are defending Brexit.

Isolationism is cool for some liberals.

I mean yeah Remain was at a disadvantage from the start because it's basically common knowledge that Corbyn, the leader of the party that should have bern fighting hard for Remain, wanted to leave the EU.

 

[Horsefly]

Gee, I wonder what was going on in Europe between the Second World War and December 26, 1991.

Certainly not a "pan European war" which is what I was responding to which was someone's first point as soon as I mentioned hysteria.

 

[excelsiorlef]

The League of Nations was intended for exactly the same purpose.

Also, unless I'm misremembering things, the EU was created in 1993 with the Maastricht Treaty, almost 50 years after the Second World War. That was 50 years of general peace without freedom of movement, without a single currency, without rules around the straightness of our cucumbers (though I grant you this last point may not be anything to do with the EU and may be related to some of the previous bodies that existed to promote trade and interoperability between European countries without sacrificing sovereignty).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

Formation of the EU goes back to 1958

 

[Horsefly]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

Formation of the EU goes back to 1958

From your own link:

The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty—whose main architects were Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand—came into force on 1 November 1993.

 

[excelsiorlef]

From your own link:

Yes I am aware but the formation process dates back to 1958... meaning in all that time there was less of an onus for conflict and/or war as they were working on forming a ya know union.

 

[chadskin]

Certainly not a "pan European war" which is what I was responding to which was someone's first point as soon as I mentioned hysteria.

Yes, because Europe was partitioned up in two blocks.

A pan-European war between NATO countries was highly unlikely because of the threat of a common enemy and any Soviet Union-NATO war would've ended in nuclear disaster. It may appear to be antithetical but political scientists consider the Cold War as one of the most stable periods in recent times.

That changed when the Soviet Union collapsed and the US became the sole hegemon of the international system.

 

[PJV3]

From your own link:

It's about the journey and knowing the destination when you set off.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Yes, because Europe was partitioned up in two blocks.

A pan-European war between NATO countries was highly unlikely because of the threat of a common enemy and any Soviet Union-NATO war would've ended in nuclear disaster. It may appear to be antithetical but political scientists consider the Cold War as one of the most stable periods in recent times.

That changed when the Soviet Union collapsed and the US became the sole hegemon of the international system.

This is an even better explanation

 

[GeordieMark]

Good lord group think... dude the research is out there about the effects of leaving... but sure the concerns are group think...

Dude, the doomsday scenarios, such as the poster above concerned about war in Europe as a result of Brexit, are what I'm talking about. Of course there are concerns. I wouldn't have voted remain if I thought otherwise would I? Not all of the concerns are realistic or valid, and some like the example above are nonsensical.

 

[Horsefly]

Yes, because Europe was partitioned up in two blocks.

A pan-European war between NATO countries was highly unlikely because of the threat of a common enemy and any Soviet Union-NATO war would've ended in nuclear disaster. It may appear to be antithetical but political scientists consider the Cold War as one of the most stable periods in recent times.

That changed when the Soviet Union collapsed and the US became the sole hegemon of the international system.

And now there's been no Soviet Union for three nearly three decades Britain leaving the EU is going to cause a pan European war?

 

[Snarfington]

Gonna buy a bunch of European booze to drown my sorrows next Wednesday. Any recommendations for what might be fitting?

What a colossal mess - generations of young people needlessly losing valuable opportunities, and the biggest safeguard against Conservative fuckery gone, because of a decade of tabloid disinformation and a fear of brown people.

 

[chadskin]

And now there's been no Soviet Union for three nearly three decades Britain leaving the EU is going to cause a pan European war?

You said there's been general peace in Europe in the time between the end of the Second World War and the establishment of the EU as we know it today. I mentioned a reason why.

I'm not sure where I said, or even implied, the UK leaving the EU would cause a war in Europe. Perhaps you have me confused with a certain former British PM but I can assure you I'm not him.

 

[AstroNut325]

Hmm... I should plan a vacation to UK soon.

 

[SuperSah]

Wait it's actually happening?

here we go.gif

 

[michaelius]

Sadly this.

I voted remain too. But reading stuff like today (in the times) about how the EU want to make an example of us and make sure no other countries want to leave the EU because of how we are treated when you leave... how undemocratic is that?! (it was a quote from someone high up in the EU)

EU is slowly dropping their mask of good guys and showing their true faces in last few months.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I can't wait to buy genuine British Mom and Pop pillows now that the jackboot of Big Europe isn't holding down pillowmakers with their onerous regulations. Rule Britannia.

Mum and Dad. You won't be finding Mom and Pop anything in Brexit Blighty.

 

[Dougald]

Gonna buy a bunch of European booze to drown my sorrows next Wednesday. Any recommendations for what might be fitting?

What a colossal mess - generations of young people needlessly losing valuable opportunities, and the biggest safeguard against Conservative fuckery gone, because of a decade of tabloid disinformation and a fear of brown people.

Get some of that Prosecco that the Europeans are falling over themselves to sell us (along with German cars of course)

 

[anonymous_abc]

EU is slowly dropping their mask of good guys and showing their true faces in last few months.

notsureifserious.fry

 

[Linkstrikesback]

EU is slowly dropping their mask of good guys and showing their true faces in last few months.

For daring to suggest the future of the union is more important than the little englanders.

How dare they suggest anything is more important than little englanders. Bastards.