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Deadline: Ghost in the Shell will Lose $60M+

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I think beside the whole controversy, it also plays a role that it is pretty unclear what the movie is actually about. I have seen plenty of coverage and ads for it, and I still don't know what the hell is going on.

Compare this to an adaption like Edge of Tomorrow where the concept is very simple and explained in the trailer. With Ghost in the Shell I'm totally confused. Marketing didn't do anything to convince me of the concept or even explain it.
 

Branduil

Member
I don't get this point. It seems to corroborate that the distribution executives are right and by and large, moviegoers don't care for whitewashing complaints.

The main problem to me seems to be point 1, it's too expensive for a niche market IP.

Well, of course the people who actually paid money to see the movie will probably like it.

I'm not sure how GitS having the same percentage of Asian-Americans going to see it is any kind of point in its favor, though... shouldn't a movie like this get a much higher percentage than "Generic Action Film 666"?
 

massoluk

Banned
I don't get this point. It seems to corroborate that the distribution executives are right and by and large, moviegoers don't care for whitewashing complaints.

The main problem to me seems to be point 1, it's too expensive for a niche market IP.

Well, of course the people who actually paid money to see the movie will probably like it.

I'm not sure how GitS having the same percentage of Asian-Americans going to see it is any kind of point in its favor, though... shouldn't a movie like this get a much higher percentage than "Generic Action Film 666"?
Yeah, those people they surveyed already decided that whitewashing is not big enough an issue. It is self selection. I failed to see how it prove anything at all.
 

Firemind

Member
I think beside the whole controversy, it also plays a role that it is pretty unclear what the movie is actually about. I have seen plenty of coverage and ads for it, and I still don't know what the hell is going on.

Compare this to an adaption like Edge of Tomorrow where the concept is very simple and explained in the trailer. With Ghost in the Shell I'm totally confused. Marketing didn't do anything to convince me of the concept or even explain it.
Sounds like the source material to me.
 
I think beside the whole controversy, it also plays a role that it is pretty unclear what the movie is actually about. I have seen plenty of coverage and ads for it, and I still don't know what the hell is going on.

Compare this to an adaption like Edge of Tomorrow where the concept is very simple and explained in the trailer. With Ghost in the Shell I'm totally confused. Marketing didn't do anything to convince me of the concept or even explain it.

Future, robots, japan, sci-fi, action, Scarlet Johanson... Ghosts?
 

Fliesen

Member
Am I missing something?

The total cost is 250 mill and the BO is estimated to be 200 Million, and they estimate a $60 million loss? Isn't it more like 150++ million since the film producer takes in less than 1/2 the box office receipts?

total cost of a movie is usually around the production budget x2. Those extra 100% are the marketing budget.

So if a film ends up grossing less than 2x the production budget, it's not considered a success.
Also, domestic revenue "counts more", as the overseas revenue, especially the one in China, as there are usually deals in place where revenue in that region needs to be shared with local parties.


As for the film's overall success:
i shamefully have to admit that i have never seen the original GotS. The fact that a high budget Hollywood production that stars ScarJo doesn't even look appealing enough for me to "jump in", to finally be somewhat "in the know" about this important part of anime history, seems to be rather telling.
 

numble

Member
total cost of a movie is usually around the production budget x2. Those extra 100% are the marketing budget.

So if a film ends up grossing less than 2x the production budget, it's not considered a success.
Also, domestic revenue "counts more", as the overseas revenue, especially the one in China, as there are usually deals in place where revenue in that region needs to be shared with local parties.
He understands this and is asking why the predicted loss isn't higher.
 

wazoo

Member
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=bladerunner.htm

It's budget was 28 million according to wikipedia, prints and advertising not included.

It was a big old bomba.

At that time, it was considered as obscure and totally weird. It is only with VHS releases than the movie started to be appreciated. Blade Runner is the best SF movie nobody cared.

Pure (unlikely) conjecture : imagine GITS in 20 years ;) Just imagine someone saying the same on Blade runner in 1981.
 

Fliesen

Member
He understands this and is asking why the predicted loss isn't higher.

oh, right, sorry about that.

Well, the OP states the 250M number already includes P&A costs, right? which are the advertising costs, iirc?
The budget is listed as 110M.
 

kswiston

Member
He understands this and is asking why the predicted loss isn't higher.

Because they are already estimating revenue from home media sales and TV licensing based on similar films.

$50M domestic, $110M overseas, and $40M China would pull in around $80M for the studio. Home video and TV deals will cumulatively bring in more than that, but there are other expenses besides production and marketing that eat into profits.
 
Future, robots, japan, sci-fi, action, Scarlet Johanson... Ghosts?
Those are just keywords you think of when watching the trailer, but I still have no clue what the actual premise is or what I should be expecting. Of course that goes for a lot of movies, but when making a high budget one, it will turn off a lot of people.
 

jett

D-Member
I cannot believe Robert Rodriguez was given $150M+ to work on an anime movie.

Hollywood pls. You do this to yourselves.
 

kswiston

Member
I think comparing GITS and Marvel movies is not fair. Marvel movies are as bad, sometimes terribly bad. The difference is that US public is very much adverse to anything they do not know and at the same time they are raised to like comics books from the youth, so much less forgiving to the Marvel/DC crap.

GITS and Valerian (next summer) are risky propositions because they are funded on cultural flavors that are rejected by the US public.

This is letting overseas audiences off the hook when they are also choosing Marvel stuff and largely ignoring GitS. $100M overseas outside of China is a poor gross for a Hollywood action blockbuster. The Seventh Son made $70M. Jupiter Ascending made over $90M.
 

Kusagari

Member
I think comparing GITS and Marvel movies is not fair. Marvel movies are as bad, sometimes terribly bad. The difference is that US public is very much adverse to anything they do not know and at the same time they are raised to like comics books from the youth, so much less forgiving to the Marvel/DC crap.

GITS and Valerian (next summer) are risky propositions because they are funded on cultural flavors that are rejected by the US public.

Marvel movies are successes in basically every major country in the world while GitS is going to bomb everywhere.

Trying to pinpoint this down to the US public is hilarious.
 

Auctopus

Member
I wonder if it was because of the white washing

A few of my friends who weren't aware of the white-washing stories said they didn't like it 'cause it was boring and was paced badly.

I doubt the masses at large care about the white-washing either, to be honest. Not that they shouldn't but I really don't think it was a reason the film bombed in the end.
 
I quite agree, actually.

In a vacuum, both GITS and Marvel would be bizarre, out there, genre content.... but one is a foreign import, while the other is All-American (and projected as "normal" to international audiences via the incredible soft power of American culture).

Another poster yesterday was telling me about how GITS looked bad. I was like... oh no, the movie is stunning. But when he explained to me what he meant, I think the idea was that it looked "Other", and to him that registered in a bad way (that "Other" appeal is exactly what I'm looking for and is my yummy candy, but I digress....)
It looks cyberpunk. Like pretty common cyberpunk/augmented future stuff from movies, games, TV. Which is mainly because a lot of that was inspired by the original GITS

I don't really get an "other" vibe when I see it. Maybe that poster just needs to read and watch more sci-fi

I think comparing GITS and Marvel movies is not fair. Marvel movies are as bad, sometimes terribly bad. The difference is that US public is very much adverse to anything they do not know and at the same time they are raised to like comics books from the youth, so much less forgiving to the Marvel/DC crap.

GITS and Valerian (next summer) are risky propositions because they are funded on cultural flavors that are rejected by the US public.
Or it's just a bad movie. Trying to say it's an "America dislikes other stuff" works when the movies are on equal footing in the quality. But GITS is a barely average dull sci-fi action movie with boring action, a boring predictable story, characters that are barely characters, with concepts and ideas done countless times across various mediums. (Yes, thank to the original GITS). It does nothing new, and does nothing well besides some cinematography and visuals

The Marvel movies are not even in the same ballpark as this.
 
It will never be made. Maybe a Hawkeye / Black Widow movie, but stand alone, no way, not anymore.
If Atomic Blonde is a success, if Captain Marvel is a success, and people like the spy thriller-esque style of Winter Soldier...

Scarlett or a female lead isn't the issue here.
 

Trokil

Banned
If Atomic Blonde is a success, if Captain Marvel is a success, and people like the spy thriller-esque style of Winter Soldier...

Scarlett or a female lead isn't the issue here.

Captain Marvel is not even really a success as a comic, this is niche even for niche and you can not make feel good buddy comedy out of that comic like Guardians.

If Wonder Women tanks this year, that's it for female superhero movies.
 
Captain Marvel is not even really a success as a comic, this is niche even for niche and you can not make feel good buddy comedy out of that comic like Guardians.

If Wonder Women tanks this year, that's it for female superhero movies.
Doesn't matter what the comics are like. I don't know why people always say that when trying to say how the movies will do. It's like saying because the Civil War or Old Man Logan comics were bad/ridiculous, the movies will be as well.

The movie will take the basic idea and twist it into something marketable and not niche

(Cosmic) Supermanwoman, from Marvel.
 

jett

D-Member
Wonder Woman will make it based on IP power alone. Besides, it seem people love DC no matter how poorly the movies are received.
 

Auctopus

Member
It will never be made. Maybe a Hawkeye / Black Widow movie, but stand alone, no way, not anymore.

This isn't really a blot on Scarlett's career, she's been in bombs before. A female-lead action thriller isn't the problem here.

It's a misrepresented adaption of a cult classic that's been hit with a lot of flak prior to release.

Marvel + Scarlett + Marvel Universe related sub-plot/ending credits scene = $$$$
 
I'm not sure what the problem is, but the quality out of Hollywood is not good enough. I'm a longtime fan of the IP and I don't see anything about the movie that makes me want to see it. Even the remix of the theme music is a lame take.
 

wazoo

Member
Marvel movies are successes in basically every major country in the world while GitS is going to bomb everywhere.

Trying to pinpoint this down to the US public is hilarious.

No, of course. You have to add the fact that since the end of cold war, USA has basically won the cultural fight and propagate its own culture to the rest of the world.

ON one side, US public is US centric whereas the rest of the world is raised to adopt US way of life through cultural mimic (TV shows and movies., foods, clothes, etc)
 

wazoo

Member
Or it's just a bad movie.

Being a bad movie has never been a reason of failure. Terrible movies are earning movies all the time, whereas good movies are bombing also.

Correlating the quality of a movie and its sales is not sane. At least, correlate quality of marketing (and GITS marketing was bad) and sales.

I also have no opinion about the movie quality. I have just seen the trailer. Like everyone that skipped the movie.
 

navii

My fantasy is that my girlfriend was actually a young high school girl.
I wish I could observe 2 realities, one as is, and one where an equally beautiful, but not as popular Japanese actress is cast instead of ScarJo and everything about the movie, her acting, marketing etc is exactly the same. I'd love to see the reviews, comments and what the media buzz is about this movie...

For what it's worth I enjoyed it.
 

kswiston

Member
No, of course. You have to add the fact that since the end of cold war, USA has basically won the cultural fight and propagate its own culture to the rest of the world.

ON one side, US public is US centric whereas the rest of the world is raised to adopt US way of life through cultural mimic (TV shows and movies., foods, clothes, etc)

I don't think this line of thinking works with American Superheroes. Superhero films were proportionally much smaller overseas until the Avengers. Most people outside the Anglosphere (and some of Latin America) didn't grow up with American superheroes, and many areas largely ignored superhero films until recently.
 
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