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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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C

Crocodile

Member
Wilsongt said:
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

Despite major outside money, FAKE media support and eleven Republican candidates, BIG "R" win with runoff in Georgia. Glad to be of help!
12:09 AM · Apr 19, 2017

Bitch, please.
Click to expand...

Literally no part of this tweet makes sense. He doesn't understand the concept of a runoff does he? Is he going to rant and bitch when he hears about the actual election in June?
 
N

nature boy

Member
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago
More
Dems failed in Kansas and are now failing in Georgia. Great job Karen Handel! It is now Hollywood vs. Georgia on June 20th.
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WHY INS'T THE PRESIDENT WORKING? COUNTRY'S A TOTAL DISASTER!
 
B

Blader

Member
I feel like it's worth taking a step back to appreciate that the President of the United States is making public statements about the "Dems failed"/"are failing."

So much for those bipartisan deals!
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
How is he going to react if we gain 50-100 seats next year?

Mass voter fraud through the entire country? Blame the Freedom Caucus (who likely won't be part of the ones who lost)? Blame Paul Ryan? Not even thinly veiled sexism against Nancy Pelosi?
 
B

Boke1879

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
How is he going to react if we gain 50-100 seats next year?

Mass voter fraud through the entire country? Blame the Freedom Caucus (who likely won't be part of the ones who lost)? Blame Paul Ryan? Not even thinly veiled sexism against Nancy Pelosi?
Click to expand...

If this Trend extends to midterms then about 1/3 of GOP seats are in play
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Boke1879 said:
If this Trend extends to midterms then about 1/3 of GOP seats are in play
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CNN says that if the margins from last night and last week hold, 123 seats are in play.

The GOP doesn't have the resources to defend that many seats. Obviously we aren't getting all 123 seats, but just getting 25 of them is enough to get the majority (and some to spare), so the Democrats are likely sitting pretty comfortable going into 2018. I'm guessing we get around 75ish of them. Which would be the most seats gained in any election, ever. But you have to keep expectations in check. So maybe 72. Then it's only second place.
 
F

Four_Chamber

Member
Agreed- I imagine Trump will only become more unpopular as the opposition becomes even more united against him. However, we need to stay realistic. Continue recruiting appealing candidates across the country and put the GOP on the defensive. Trump can send out idiotic tweets when he focuses on one race but its not possible to do that at a larger level when 2018 comes around.

Aiming to flip the house is a good short term target.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Holmes said:
Still don't think Ossoff has a worse shot in the runoff. His voters are already coalesced around him and are more energized. Handel does need to work to get all R votes to turn up and vote in her favor. She has the more difficult path to 50%+1.
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I'm thinking the same thing. I really don't see how a runoff hurts Ossoff. He's got a few points of wiggle room to snatch up the few votes for others, and then just hype turnout. Handel has to convince basically every single not-Handel Republican to vote for her, and then hype turnout as well.

I mean, ask yourself which position you'd rather be in?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
CNN says that if the margins from last night and last week hold, 123 seats are in play.

The GOP doesn't have the resources to defend that many seats. Obviously we aren't getting all 123 seats, but just getting 25 of them is enough to get the majority (and some to spare), so the Democrats are likely sitting pretty comfortable going into 2018. I'm guessing we get around 75ish of them. Which would be the most seats gained in any election, ever. But you have to keep expectations in check. So maybe 72. Then it's only second place.
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nope. There have been worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1932
 
N

nature boy

Member
Hindl said:
I'd love to shit on Brady, but he gave the same reason for not going to Obama's WH. His mom is battling cancer and she's in MA today
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Didn't know that, thought it was amusing since Trump spent the entire campaign saying Brady endorsed him.


Jake Sherman‏Verified account @JakeSherman 20m20 minutes ago
More
WOW!// DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - Biggest Mideast airline Emirates cuts flights to US in wake of visa ban, new security measures.
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How does this help the economy?
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
OmniOne said:
Be still my heart.

Something tells me members of the house are reading the trends? Is his district less GOP than ga6 or Ks4?
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No way was Chaffetz going to lose to a Dem (I think, correct me if his district could actually swing) but there was talk of McMuffin sniping the seat from him, which I could see being successful.
 
K

kess

Member
The Polish government has summoned Donald Tusk to testify on the plane crash that killed Lech Kaczynski because the Law and Justice party finds him culpable. This is totally revenge for Tusk winning another term as the European Council president.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Hindl said:
I'd love to shit on Brady, but he gave the same reason for not going to Obama's WH. His mom is battling cancer and she's in MA today
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Except when he said it for Obama he was spotted working out during the time he claimed he was going to be busy with personal matters.

Edit: it didn't occur to me at the time, wonder if Hernandez intended his suicide to overshadow the WH visit.
 
B

Blader

Member
I'm sure his replacement will be worse, but for this brief moment, I will reveal in the impeding end of Chaffetz's political career.

AntraxSuicide said:
I'm thinking the same thing. I really don't see how a runoff hurts Ossoff. He's got a few points of wiggle room to snatch up the few votes for others, and then just hype turnout. Handel has to convince basically every single not-Handel Republican to vote for her, and then hype turnout as well.

I mean, ask yourself which position you'd rather be in?
Click to expand...

Ossoff may be closer, but I feel like it's easier for Handel to convince other Republicans in a Republican district to vote Republican than it is for Ossoff to squeeze enough votes out of non-Ossoff Dems/non-voters/crossover Republicans, without losing any of his voters from yesterday.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Blader said:
I'm sure his replacement will be worse, but for this brief moment, I will reveal in the impeding end of Chaffetz's political career.



Ossoff may be closer, but I feel like it's easier for Handel to convince other Republicans in a Republican district to vote Republican than it is for Ossoff to squeeze enough votes out of non-Ossoff Dems/non-voters/crossover Republicans, without losing any of his voters from yesterday.
Click to expand...

Sure, she'll definitely get most of them. But with Ossoff's total yesterday, she damn near needs 100% of them (or drastically reduced Dem turnout, which uh seems unlikely).

I really think most people would rather be Ossoff than Handel going into this thing.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Blader said:
Ossoff may be closer, but I feel like it's easier for Handel to convince other Republicans in a Republican district to vote Republican than it is for Ossoff to squeeze enough votes out of non-Ossoff Dems/non-voters/crossover Republicans, without losing any of his voters from yesterday.
Click to expand...
What the House actually does or doesn't get done over the next two months will play a big role. Debt limit, tax reform, budget? Can they pass anything at all? It remains to be seen how much time Handel'll have to spend to distance herself from House leadership.
 
J

JP_

Banned
http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/329445-poll-shows-cruz-losing-to-texas-dem-castro

Never heard of Lyceum polling. Got Beto and Castro competitive with Cruz.

They have a disclaimer quote in he press release

“Ballot tests conducted this far in advance of an actual election are, at best, useful in gauging the potential weaknesses of incumbents seeking re-election,” said Daron Shaw. “But the substantial percentage of undecided respondents—coupled with the conservative, pro-Republican proclivities of the Texas electorate in recent years— suggest a cautious interpretation.”
Click to expand...
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
pigeon said:
C9wAM7cXUAA7ga7.jpg


From Will Jordan's twitter.
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The best way to fight fascism is to label a graph's axis.
Why do you love fascists Will?
 
B

Boke1879

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
Sure, she'll definitely get most of them. But with Ossoff's total yesterday, she damn near needs 100% of them (or drastically reduced Dem turnout, which uh seems unlikely).

I really think most people would rather be Ossoff than Handel going into this thing.
Click to expand...

Ossoff just needs to keep campaigning and the main focus just needs to be getting dems to turn back out.

Is there going to be early voting or is it all Election Day stuff.
 
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