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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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Souldriver
Member
As a non-French person looking at this election, it's quite remarkable how many possibilities there are for results. But they seem to range from just okay to horrendous. I guess that's politics.
Le Pen - Mélenchon
==> worst case scenario for me personally. Both very reactionary and regressive choices. Will only lead to a more disunited Europe, and therefore a weaker Europe and France.
Macron - Hamon
==> best case scenario but not realistic. Hamon is out of the picture sadly.
So we end up with match ups where Le Pen and/or Mélenchion and/or Fillon are included, and that makes me grumpy as well. Out of those three I would vote Fillon, but I'd hold my nose doing it.
I have to say that I base my opinions on just overal glances to the programs and ideas of the candidates. I wonder if I would have a different opinion if I had followed the election like a junkie.
Le Pen - Mélenchon
==> worst case scenario for me personally. Both very reactionary and regressive choices. Will only lead to a more disunited Europe, and therefore a weaker Europe and France.
Macron - Hamon
==> best case scenario but not realistic. Hamon is out of the picture sadly.
So we end up with match ups where Le Pen and/or Mélenchion and/or Fillon are included, and that makes me grumpy as well. Out of those three I would vote Fillon, but I'd hold my nose doing it.
I have to say that I base my opinions on just overal glances to the programs and ideas of the candidates. I wonder if I would have a different opinion if I had followed the election like a junkie.
He's somewhat of an empty suit.
A voté
I'm in Norway, voted at the embassy. No Le Pen poster here either, lol.
I was surprised at the turnout, the line took 1 hour. Not a fun thing to do hungover...
You could always lie, voting is supposed to be anonymous, they don't have the right to know who you are voting for.
I'm in Norway, voted at the embassy. No Le Pen poster here either, lol.
I was surprised at the turnout, the line took 1 hour. Not a fun thing to do hungover...
You could always lie, voting is supposed to be anonymous, they don't have the right to know who you are voting for.
It hasn't. He's the favourite to win the first round in front of Le Pen, before he was always second but with a bit more of a buffer compared to the 3rd/4th place. Now everyone is closer together.
What does that even mean?
Systolique
Member
Mélenchon ; regressive and reactionary, are you sure about that?
In your scenario #2, if LePen is the opponent, it's both the riskiest scenario and the most anti EU no?
We lack great politicians these days, I wonder why. Maybe because it's more a matter of communication now than a matter of content.
I still don't like this two-turn system, though. And it's even worse now with primaries.
I feel like we're playing russian (!) roulette but with basically a bullet in all the holes.
He's warm water... he doesn't say much so that he angers noone. But at the same time he seduces noone either. His best chance has always been a reject of all the others.
Without the Penelope Gate, I'm not even sure it would have stand against Fillon.
Orniletter
Banned
Le Pen vs. Melenchon would be the Hindenburg outcome, indeed.
Imo, from least terrible to Trump, it goes Macron>>>>>>>>>>Fillion>>>>Mélenchon>Le Pen
gutter_trash
Banned
weird post, you claim to have not followed the election but your spraying false equivelancy about Macron with Clinton forgetting that both have two different elections rules.
if the US had the same Electotion rules as France, Clinton would have won
Systolique
Member
Mélenchon completely crushes Le Pen in the second round, the riskiest match-up where Marine Le Pen can succeed is against Fillon, which is dangerously close.
Fillon is such a sack of shit that all of the left side of the country wouldn't bother voting to block Le Pen, I wouldn't either if this was the case.
Well, that's the legislatives that decide who governs France... I personally don't have an issue with that, I can see myself hoping that (any) elected president DOESN'T actually have a majority behind him.
Not the best for reforms, but in the current state...
Still, I love the difference in the media/politic talks about Macron possible majority and the case of Bayrou in 2007 (it may have been the question that cost Bayrou the victory)...
BaronLundi
Member
A voté.
Good turnout at my polling place (east Paris). Almost 35% at noon.
Now the wait. Godspeed my fellow citizens/europeans.
No poll made today, especially outside of France, is to be trusted.
I'm not even sure we'll have results at 20pm. Last time it happened was in 1995, my first election
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Good turnout at my polling place (east Paris). Almost 35% at noon.
Now the wait. Godspeed my fellow citizens/europeans.
No poll made today, especially outside of France, is to be trusted.
I'm not even sure we'll have results at 20pm. Last time it happened was in 1995, my first election
.Palette Swap
Member
Read the last few pages, I honestly don't think there's a huge pro-Macron consensus. Yeah, he's been leading in most polls, but people have been fairly reasonable about polls, acknowledging they don't always account for short term dynamics and voter uncertainty. Factually, he's the most likely to win, but we know everyone has a path to victory. Except poor Hamon.
Yeah, fingers crossed. My (impossible) favorite outcome would have been Macron-Hamon, with Macron-Fillon second, but I would take this.
Still, the US rules have been chosen to increase democracy... It seems a weird system (somehow, it is) but it's hard to create a good system, especialy in a Federal country...
Take a Condorcet voting system in France, and we would have had Jospin in 2002 and Bayrou in 2007 (both would have win in the second turn against both candidates that reached the second turn).
The rules have a large impact on who wins. It's the same for the legislative, we ditched having a representative assembly so that it's easier to act, but the effect is that the decisions taken may be really different from what the majority want, for the best or the worse (EU is one of the most obvious recent examples, but there's plently of those)
Interesting, but without more on method, I'm not sure there's a lot of prediction power in this...
Also post-voting polls in the past have shown that a significant % of people lied on their vote (last time, more people were saying they voted for LePen that LePen actually received, for example... It was in the error bars, but it's still interesting)
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
BaronLundi
Member
Superimposer
This is getting weirder all the time
No, don't know where you saw that. It is close though... all 4 main candidates are polling within 2-3% of each other.
Alx
Member
Lol, parce qu'elle le vaut bien.
NKM was an interesting candidate during the primaries, btw. Got overshadowed by the big ones, but she may have potential for the future of the right. I only disliked her support for the "Uber-like industry".
Found this earlier. A bit pretentious but it sums up my position quite well.
Sure, but I like discussing politics and I feel like I shouldn't have to do that. We can disagree, and I understand how one could not like Macron but I don't feel like he's a monster or anything
Alx
Member
Yeah that's what I don't understand. I can see how people don't trust him, don't like his person or disagree with his politics, but some "anything but Macron" opinions makes you think he's trying to destroy the country or something.
Depends on the poll, but that's not really surprising. Not that it means much, she has a strong basis (a basis that doesn't always share FN ideas, too, but just want a change... there's a surprising number of former immigrants that vote FN, too) but it has always been hard for them to reach majority.
FN has had a lead for some time now. They were in the lead in European elections in 2014, they were also in the lead for regional elections in 2015, but they still failed to take a single region.
Well... ^_^
I've been impressed hearing her defending some decisions at the assembly or the senate (I remember finding her really good at the assembly commission studying nuclear power just after Fukushima, it was a tricky one and she mastered her subject) but she keeps finding herself in such situations...
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Hoping Macron pulls through. Good luck France GAF, no matter who you're voting for (unless it's Le Pen).
I agree... even if I think it'll be really hard to swim above the others, especially when you're a moderate right. I expect to see primaries favor more aggressive candidates.Lol, parce qu'elle le vaut bien.
NKM was an interesting candidate during the primaries, btw. Got overshadowed by the big ones, but she may have potential for the future of the right. I only disliked her support for the "Uber-like industry".
I think we may be thinking about the same rant, I still haven't completely understand, even with russian campaigning against him... I don't really understand the whole #toutsaufmacron. Even if, again, I don't like him.
I'd say he may the worst except all the others
I think I may share a lot of Bayrou feelings.
I agree... Except maybe on the 2.5% growth. I think basing everything on growth will cost us soon or late, I can't see how it's sustainable. I'd like to be able to achieve the same results even in a case of lower (or even negative) growth. It's obviously harder, but I fear we'll have to face it.
That's tricky, especially at work...
So Melenchon in the end, in my family it's a tie between Hamon and Melenchon as expected, if you're wishing for a leftist president that were the only possible choices.
Switching in french
Dans mon bureau de vote 635/1063 inscrits peu avant 16h ce qui est un très très bon taux de participation.
Switching in french
Dans mon bureau de vote 635/1063 inscrits peu avant 16h ce qui est un très très bon taux de participation.
Blackpuppy
Member
Aurait voulu voté mais je ne suis pas encore citoyen
BUT I do turn in my dossier for citizenship this summer so this election is happening at a shitty time.
My wife was torn between Macron and Mélanchon but the latter's anti-EU stance doesn't sit well for her so Macron it is!
BUT I do turn in my dossier for citizenship this summer so this election is happening at a shitty time.
My wife was torn between Macron and Mélanchon but the latter's anti-EU stance doesn't sit well for her so Macron it is!
Not talking about electoral system here, just saying that recently GAF is on the side of the losers . But apparently Macron is not French GAF protege
lol Nathalie Geneviève Marie Kosciusko-Morizet
Yeah, that's something that is quite baffling to me. I know a lot of Mélenchonistes who deem Macron worse than Fillon or Le Pen. Well, some of them argue that Hamon and Montebourg are right wing, so their critical thinking is pretty much inexistant but still.
I'd say there are more voters than planned cause the last polls were super tight, and that means anything can happen. If there was still a lepen/macron sure thing, people would stay home. But we've had 2 weeks of "what if Melanchon and Lepen are the winners now".
And it should also favor Macron as people will then vote safely.
Anyway i have to shake my ass to go outside. Still debating internally if voting Hamon has any sort of relevancy.
And it should also favor Macron as people will then vote safely.
Anyway i have to shake my ass to go outside. Still debating internally if voting Hamon has any sort of relevancy.
BaronLundi
Member
Go go go !
And yeah, if you want to maximise the chances of evicting LePen and Fillon, voting Hamon is probably not your best bet.
8pm at the earliest. Probably later.
PSA : Remember there are NO polls with any kind of relevancy before that time.
Around 80% usually
Of course, at work it's a no-no. Plus I believe my library sits quite strongly on the left...
I still make Fillon/Le Pen jokes
On growth, it's actually debatable. But I'm on my phone and that would be OT
Alx
Member
It's high, usually around 75-80%, at the lowest 70%.
People seem to like seeing the direct consequence of their vote, since the turnout is higher the more undecided the race is. On the other hand other elections are much lower (especially European ones)
wumster3000
Member
It's strange that there were terror attacks right before this election.
There will be terror attacks after it as well, it just remains to be seen what voters think about it once it happens under Le Pen.
These polls seem to all be inside the error margin. I feel like at this point it could go either way but yeah, I hope Macron pulls this. Pen not going to second round seems like too much to hope for but let's see.
Trickster
Member
"maybe if we give her more power, she will be able to prevent it"
I take this as that she got better polls after it?
BaronLundi
Member
As sad as it is for the cop, that terrorist attack was nothing new really, and i doubt it changes anything. medias tried to act like "OMG terrorist is back what will that change OMG special edition stay with us!!!" but really i's more of the same situation. Nobody was thinking it was over.
People who are influenced by that were already.
Basically what Trump must be praying for every night.
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