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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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O

oti

Banned
Alej said:
You want to teach me how economy works? Yeah go ahead. Teach Joseph Stiglitz too and the whole lot of the neo-keynesian ones.

JFYI, i have a degree in Economics Sciences. Go ahead bro. Make me hate inflation.
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Moi aussi, frè.

Look, I'm not some big fan of austerity. I agree that France needs change in order to be more competitive. The entire EU needs change. Germany can't continue to make insane bank thanks to the common currency (although I do not feel like Germany has to apologize for its competitiveness, we went through some pretty tough reforms ourselves in the past and Merkel can''t change the ECB's course regarding the Euro). You can't look at the staus quo of France and the EU and think everything's fine. But I believe Macron has the more realisitc outlook in that regard. Mélenchon promises a lot. A lot.
 
A

Alej

Banned
oti said:
Moi aussi, frè.

Look, I'm not some big fan of austerity. I agree that France needs change in order to be more competitive. The entire EU needs change. Germany can't continue to make insane bank thanks to the common currency (although I do not feel like Germany has to apologize for its competitiveness, we went through some pretty tough reforms ourselves in the past and Merkel can''t change the ECB's course regarding the Euro). You can't look at the staus quo of France and the EU and think everything's fine. But I believe Macron has the more realisitc outlook in that regard. Mélenchon promises a lot. A lot.
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Macron really? Do you really think CICE, ElKhomri Law and the whole flexisecurity scam is fixing France's Economy right now? The fuck.
 
L

LordZagry

Neo Member
oti said:
I'm sure he would keep all of his realistic campaign promises. Because that's how the economy works.
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I'm not an expert in economy (i'm on sociology), but there's a lot of economists on the anti-austerity side, and not bad ones (André Orléan, Frédéric Lordon, Benjamin Coriat, Joseph Stiglitz....) and 100+ of them who have called to a Mélenchon vote : http://www.liberation.fr/elections-...a-hauteur-des-enjeux-votons-melenchon_1563456

I don't think you can say his program is irrealistic. A little bit optimistic no doubt,
but no more than those with high economic growth forecasts. Or Fillon, who thinks he can cut 500,000 civil servants/public works.
 
T

Tribes of Trusty

Member
A voté.
Pretty uneventful except for the aged lady behind me who nearly broke her hip bone thanks to a chair that broke down when she sat down.

They were looking for people for the ballot count but not actively, they let a paper with your name and phone number asked, there were quite a number of people, for approximatively 45 mins (I live in a medium sized province town).

It would be pretty interesting to see how people voted in each town and in each town by quartier.
I know mine would be Fillon/Macron town
 
A

Alej

Banned
MistakenMobius said:
i'm not sure someone being on the same economical line as Chavez is that better.
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What the fuck is this shit, really? Should be bannable.

His economic program is neo-keynesian, not socialist that much and not even close of some communism shit.

And then, La France Insoumise is equally a movement for a new Constitution and a more democratic and parlementary regime. It is backed by some big NGOs like Action contre la faim, Greenpeace or Amnesty International.

He wants French Guyana and French carribean islands to enter the Bolivarian Alliance anf not Mercosur. He doesn't want France to back Maduro or some shit like that.
 
S

SamVimes

Member
Personally the problem I have with Melenchon (I'm not French or live in France) are his stances on the EU and on Russia. I'm not enthusiastic on Macron (and wish Hamon had done better) but for me he's the only sane choice.
 
O

oti

Banned
LordZagry said:
I'm not an expert in economy (i'm on sociology), but there's a lot of economists on the anti-austerity side, and not bad ones (André Orléan, Frédéric Lordon, Benjamin Coriat, Joseph Stiglitz....) and 100+ of them who have called to a Mélenchon vote : http://www.liberation.fr/elections-...a-hauteur-des-enjeux-votons-melenchon_1563456

I don't think you can say his program is irrealistic. A little bit optimistic no doubt,
but no more than those with high economic growth forecasts. Or Fillon, who thinks he can cut 500,000 civil servants/public works.
Click to expand...

I'm not a fan of austerity. Cutting debt is important, but an economy needs impulses. I'm Greek, I have family in Greece, I know what austerity looks like. While the measures are too tough one can't deny Greece needs to go through a process like this though. I'd argue the same for France, to a much lesser degree.

The thing about economists is that they are great scholars, but you can't adopt economic models to the real world like that. Stiglitz in particular of course I know of. He played a huge role during the Greek crisis and whilst his positions all sounded great on paper, they lacked realistic ways to execute them.

I have a science degree in Economics. I do not claim to be an expert but growing up in Germany and experiencing the Greek crisis thanks to family I am very cautious when it comes to the promises of the far-left. France isn't Greece but who knows, Mélenchon could end up being another Tsipras.

I don't want to see the Euro or EU collapsing. What I do want to see is a more cofident France that can stand up to Germany and push the EU to the changes it needs. Hamon seems DOA, so the best option left in my eyes is Macron. Mélenchon is just too left and Le Pen should be nowhere near the presidency.
 
M

Madness

Member
Thoughts on those who say even if Le Pen loses she has already won as a lot of French citizens and all the parties are adopting very Front style policies. That even if she loses, her points will be raised at every failure of the current winning party etc.
 
M

MistakenMobius

Member
Alej said:
What the fuck is this shit, really? Should be bannable.

His economic program is neo-keynesian, not socialist that much and not even close of some communism shit.

And then, La France Insoumise is equally a movement for a new Constitution and a more democratic and parlementary regime. It is backed by some big NGOs like Action contre la faim, Greenpeace or Amnesty International.

He wants French Guyana and French carribean islands to enter the Bolivarian Alliance anf not Mercosur. He doesn't want France to back Maduro or some shit like that.
Click to expand...
He said himself that Chavez was a social democrat last week:
Ouest France
Le Venezuela avait une politique de social-démocrate. Personne n'a été exproprié. Il n'y a pas eu de nationalisations non plus. J'ai soutenu Chávez contre l'agression des Américains. Aujourd'hui, le problème de ce pays, c'est d'abord la baisse du prix du pétrole.
Click to expand...
I read this clearly as an endorsement and here on GAF, we have Machado telling us the situation as it is.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
G.O.O. said:
guys

there are economists for Macron http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article...s-soutenons-emmanuel-macron_5110033_3232.html

and for Mélenchon http://www.liberation.fr/elections-...a-hauteur-des-enjeux-votons-melenchon_1563456

it's just the old orthodox VS heterodox thing again (and don't tell me there are more for JLM, I really doubt the guys from south america know much about french politics or our jobs market)
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Yeah that's what I was going to post. It's hard to follow the "trust me, I'm an economist" argument when for the past months we've seen each candidate come with his own economist who would explain "par A+B" why his program will save us all while his opponent's will bring our doom.
Today it really feels like economists live in their own world, with their own references (who the fuck knows who Stiglitz is if he's not studying economy ?), and they have a long way before they can get any credit from the regular population, who's more likely to believe "they don't know what they're doing".
 
L

LordZagry

Neo Member
G.O.O. said:
(and don't tell me there are more for JLM, I really doubt the guys from south america know much about french politics or our jobs market)
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It wasn't my point. I was just that the "irrealistic" argument and "Mélenchon doesn't know how economy works" are bad ones, there are plenty of others things to criticize.
 
C

chromatic9

Member
pswii60 said:
I don't get the UK thing. Our government has no time for Putin, and even the Trump love from May is fake as fuck (if you were suggesting indirect puppetry through him).
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Maybe the person was seeing it in the loosest sense of us leaving the EU thus having no influence anymore? From a conspiracy point of view we played into the evil mans hands even though Russia had zero to do with Brexit.

Interesting for France is they have 3 candidates talking positively about Russia.
 
L

Loris146

Member
Alx said:
Yeah that's what I was going to post. It's hard to follow the "trust me, I'm an economist" argument when for the past months we've seen each candidate come with his own economist who would explain "par A+B" why his program will save us all while his opponent's will bring our doom.
Today it really feels like economists live in their own world, with their own references (who the fuck knows who Stiglitz is if he's not studying economy ?), and they have a long way before they can get any credit from the regular population, who's more likely to believe "they don't know what they're doing".
Click to expand...
This is always happened because there are diffent theories. Anyway it's clear that cutting 500k job positions from the public administration is fucking stupid and useless.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Loris146 said:
This is always happened because there are diffent theories. Anyway it's clear that cutting 500k job positions from the public administration is fucking stupid and useless.
Click to expand...

"It's clear" to some and not to others, which is why none of them is trusted.
 
M

Mac_Lane

Member
FDC1 said:
Turnout is 28,54% at Noon, it's the same than in 2012 (28,29%). Way better than expected.
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Yes, it's a pretty great number !

WEB_PRESIDENTIELLE2017_1ERTOUR_participation12H.png
 
sobaka770

sobaka770

Banned
Loris146 said:
This is always happened because there are diffent theories. Anyway it's clear that cutting 500k job positions from the public administration is fucking stupid and useless.
Click to expand...

Isn't public administration in France severely bloated? And because of Union power you can't even fire most people? That means that once you're in, there's little incentive to perform.

I mean it's true that 500k chômeurs is not great but so is having them on State payroll financed by high tax rate on everyone without them having any incentives but to push papers and fight for 35 hour work week.
 
O

Oreiller

Member
sobaka770 said:
Isn't public administration in France severely bloated? And because of Union power you can't even fire most people? That means that once you're in, there's little incentive to perform.

I mean it's true that 500k chômeurs is not great but so is having them on State payroll financed by high tax rate on everyone without them having any incentives but to push papers and fight for 35 hour work week.
Click to expand...

Not really, most of the administration is severely understaffed and overworked.
There are redundancies and an overall lack of efficiency but simply cutting jobs is only going to make our administration much worse. It needs to be reworked for sure, but Fillon's and Macron's half-assed proposals won't do much good.

Edit: For instance, most semi-public administrations (like Pole Emploi or la CAF) tend to mostly provide short term contracts which are not always renewed. As a result, the staff is barely competent, barely trained and overworked. Truly the perfect recipe for an administration.
 
G

G.O.O.

Member
I'm a civil servant (librarian) and indeed, can't say we need more cuts.

That being said, it's not true for everyone in the public administration, councils in particular (city, region, department). It's also the most corrupted and ineffective power centers.
 
A

Aswell

Member
Mac_Lane said:
Yes, it's a pretty great number !

WEB_PRESIDENTIELLE2017_1ERTOUR_participation12H.png
Click to expand...
This is even the second all-time best turnout rate at noon since almost forty years for a presidential election. Let us hope this trend will continue all over the day.

Turnout rates outside mainland France (at 17:00 local times) are not as good as 2012 though.
Le Monde (live feed) said:
Du côté des outre-mer, la préfecture de Martinique a annoncé que le taux de participation dans l'île était de 34,82 % à 17 heures, samedi contre 36,5 % à la même heure en 2012. En Guyane, le taux de participation était de 37,31 % à 17 heures, contre 45,73 % à la même heure en 2012, a annoncé le préfet. En Guadeloupe, 34,17 % des électeurs s'étaient déplacés à 17 heures ; en 2012, ils étaient 41,98 % à la même heure, a annoncé la préfecture sur Facebook.
Click to expand...
 
S

Simplet

Member
Madness said:
Thoughts on those who say even if Le Pen loses she has already won as a lot of French citizens and all the parties are adopting very Front style policies. That even if she loses, her points will be raised at every failure of the current winning party etc.
Click to expand...

That's complete bullshit. The only mainstream candidate who really tried to use Le Pen's rhetoric and ideas is Sarkozy, and he was crushed even in the right's primaries. Her strongest opponent is Macron, who is literally the anti-Le Pen on every single issue you can imagine (immigration, Europe, globalization, protectionism, foreign policy and so on so forth).

Fillon is pretty rightist, but in a different way from Le Pen, he's more of a traditionalist/catholic (where Marine Le Pen is more of a disrupter, more than her father), and massively pro-liberalism when it comes to the economy whereas she is for protectionism.

Interestingly you could say that the candidate who might have been boosted the most by the Le Pen rhetoric is Mélenchon. Of course Mélenchon is a classic extreme-left "tribun" and clearly not peddling racism, but all the "national protectionism" rhetoric and his positions on foreign affairs are actually pretty close to Le Pen. (I personally believe that the far-left rhetoric about "global corporations sending your jobs to faceless slaves in far-away countries" has provided a tremendous boost to right-wing populists worldwide, but that's another subject).
 
M

Magni

Member
A voté. Pretty long line at the embassy here in Tokyo, and apparently it was way longer (3+ hours) earlier in the day.

Right as I was waiting to drop my ballot in the urn, I got a FB message from my best mate saying our friendly debate on Facebook had pushed him to Macron in the end (he was leaning Mélenchon, but was wary of his foreign/European policy). Facebook debates work!

I'm flying to Paris tomorrow coincidentally, so I get to stay up all night and wait for the results while preemptively fighting jetlag :D

edit: also, lol

Code: 
[img]http://i.imgur.com/95wwTSY.jpg[/img]

Oui, le candidat nº2 c'est Marine Le Pen

edit2: lol, she also skipped out on London according to http://live.lesoir.be/Event/RadioLo..._Presidentielle_francaise_en_direct/857955039

752bcac3-f64e-4c8e-812d-56cb260b2fb6_500.jpg
 
V

vonStirlitz

Unconfirmed Member
Any hint as to how its going or have to wait till 20:00?

Is high turnout good? In the UK, it meant a lot of annoyed people returned a bad result. Is it different for nos amis de France?
 
L

le-seb

Member
KillerStar said:
A voté.

Macron. Le moins pire de tous...
Click to expand...
Same.

Bumped intro some of my despicable neighbour at the polling station, who tried to go straight from the bulletin table to the ballot box. Brought me a smile when he was called to order by the staff, being told that the law obliged him to pick all candidates' bulletins, and to make his choice in the booth.
He moaned about useless laws. Probably voted FN.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
vonStirlitz said:
Any hint as to how its going or have to wait till 20:00??
Click to expand...

Any hint before 20:00 would be illegal in France. Maybe some European outlets will leak some information, though.

vonStirlitz said:
Is high turnout good? In the UK, it meant a lot of annoyed people returned a bad result. Is it different for nos amis de France?
Click to expand...

Hard to tell. Usually strong participation would be a good thing to counter the FN, but with the recent attack it could also be a reaction fueled by fear and anger.
 
M

Mac_Lane

Member
Gurgelhals said:
Whoa, I didn't know that French presidential terms once lasted *seven* years. De Gaulle sure went to town there...
Click to expand...

Yep, the seven-year term was turned into a 5-year one in a 2000 referendum.

De Gaulle didn't finish his second term, he resigned after losing a referendum on decentralization in 1969.
 
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