Are Pacthers predictions usually spot on? I only ask because this news is starting to follow me around the web outside of GAF.
Beyond sales and profit predictions they are always wrong.
Are Pacthers predictions usually spot on? I only ask because this news is starting to follow me around the web outside of GAF.
Shin said:Things started rolling last year April with the move of a key engineer back to the hardware department.
I've kept in mind that SCE & SNEI merged into SIE in April 2016, but he also went back to his previous role - hardware engineer.
Cerny said that development on PS4 started in 2008, you can find it in a Euro gamer article, everything matches Masayasu Ito LinkedIn profile.
Remember when he predicted Switch (or nx at the time) would be close to PS4 in power because it could run breath of the wild?Beyond sales and profit predictions they are always wrong.
Nice. Couple of things. Active area on PS4 APU was only about half the die partly to layout spacing but partly for housekeeping circuits. This should remain fairly static and not need to increase next gen, so would that result in a net gain of active dir space so you could target more than e.g. 152mm2 for the GPU?
Also any info yet on likely navi CU size? Presumably there will be performance improvements at the same size so that TFLOP number might go up by a few percent
Are Pacthers predictions usually spot on? I only ask because this news is starting to follow me around the web outside of GAF.
That's the industry craving for PS5 news, there so little to go on that the same is being ran by many sites.Are Pacthers predictions usually spot on? I only ask because this news is starting to follow me around the web outside of GAF.
That's because these systems use 8Gb modules which translates to 1GB per 32-bit chip. 16Gb modules deliver 2x the memory on the same bus. It's how we got the PS4.Still curious how they'll increase the amount of memory without widening the bus.
I've yet to find a GPU or console where the amount of memory x 32-bit isn't the equation.
PS4 is 256-bit (8x32), XBOX is (12x32) 386-bit, 16Gb would result in 512-bit, something is off with this.
So I wonder how they are going to increase the amount of memory while staying at 384-bit, people keep saying that 512-bit isn't doable and bla bla but no proof to back it up.
Assuming they go for 384-bit as well then isn't it going to be either 12Gb or 24Gb (clam-shell) or am I seeing things wrong if so prove how?
Masayasu Ito also did that 4gamer interview where a high-end PS4 was discussed while mere weeks later we now know Sony had final hardware PS4 Pro devkits!
I'm not sure if those title changes really mean anything or are the product of the SCE>SIE transition? Ito has always been both a hardware and software SVP/EVP?
Honestly if disclosures to devs have already been happening per Matt then I would think PS5 is much further along than having a top engineer in place just over a year before?
I think this would be worse though, especially since Shenmue 3 was a Kickstarter. I know it's dumb to do it but I bet lots of people got swayed over to buy a PS4 for Shenmue 3 and FF7 Remake in particular. I guess it could be a GT6 situation though where they're simply released too late.Just like Versus XIII, Agent, The Last Guardian, Nioh, etc pissed people off the PS4.
Not saying those games won't be released for the PS4 though, I'm pretty sure that at the very least TLOU 2 will.
After PS4 launched he was re-assigned, he didn't have anything to do with PS4Pro I think which matches his CV and what you said.
PS3 came out in 2006,there is a 2+ year gap there also, it seems Sony shuffles certain people around during downtime.
His role was completely different between 2014 and 2016 (again 2 year gap).
So PS5 is full step and releasing on 2020, makes sense
Yeah but instead of $500 every 6-8 years many of us are now basically paying $400 every 3-4 years making the total cost $800 for the 6-8 year period instead on $500. Add the online subscription too which are now standard on all consoles and the $599 PS3 price everybody laughed at suddenly feel cheap.Look at the reaction to Scorpio's $499 price point, most people dont want to spend that much money on a console. Price is king.
I read that, it's how I found his LinkedIn profile. Doesn't strike me as someone that would toy with what he puts on his CV, Shawn did say that it will take a while before we see it.I'm just not sure that Linkedin profile tells us much at all. He did do this interview as I mentioned previously and he seemed to be fully involved/knowledgeable (for a exec at least) about PS4 Pro: http://www.4gamer.net/games/990/G999024/20151021121/
I really don't see it coming so late if the likes of Matt have had disclosures already.
Shin said:From R&D to launch it was 5 years for PS4, it's gonna be 2020/2021 :/
You really think R&D for PS5 started only this year or last? I don't think PS4 Pro had much impact on PS5 development and also it didn't take up much resource within Sony compared to a from scratch design.
I would go so far as to guess PS5 R&D started shortly after PS4 launch in say mid 2014 in parallel with PS4 Pro.
I would love for Matt to give a more solid indication of when PS5 might land. 2018-19 or 2020-21! Right now all the 'noise' for me indicates a late 2018 launch but a delay for business reasons to 2019 could happen.
It is going to be a half step if they go with zen1/vega, 8-9Tf gpu? No thanks and fuck them.
Believe me I want a native 4k console with uhd, something above 12tf and 3.2ghz cpu and that's possible if they wait till 2020/2021.
I mean shit they can launch using a 5nm process, which is what an improved improved 7nm.
As long as the CPU is decent, has more RAM and much better memory bandwidth, would 8-9Tf GPU really be that disappointing ?
People are focused on the Pro and X numbers too much but all games are designed with the base consoles in mind. Pro and X are mostly just using that extra power to run current gen games at 4k, these games are not directly made for them exclusively
PS4 only has 1.84Tf and results in fantastic looking games like God of War or Uncharted 4, so going from games designed for 1.84Tf, to games designed for 8-9Tf, would be a pretty big step up.
I do expect GPU power will actually be a little higher than 8-9Tf though.
newbong95 said:if they decide to manufacture the ps5 APU at 7nm , they have to wait for the process to mature , maybe in 2020-21. PS4 came out with matured 28nm process and still they were unable to meet demand . For a new platform the unit is required to be present in large numbers from the start to meet the demand. 7nm wont be mature enough to provide such huge yields in its 1st year . So even if ps5 use 7nm , it has to come out later than 2019. And without this process change its quite difficult to show a good jump between 2 platforms.
Are Pacthers predictions usually spot on? I only ask because this news is starting to follow me around the web outside of GAF.
Yes I would.As long as the CPU is decent, has more RAM and much better memory bandwidth, would 8-9Tf GPU really be that disappointing ?
You've explained this much better than my terrible attempts. The best case scenario according to TSMC is 2H 2019 for mass volume 7nm EUV and that would be for much smaller chips for Smartphones, right? You almost guarantee delays for this so 2021 at least for 300+mm^2 PS5 chips.
As long as sony is not in a rush to push ps5 out like nintendo was with wii u after wii , i think the delay is inevitable.
3 Shawn - yes there will be a PS5, will be a new genBut then the question is why is there so much talk of PS5 by both media and Sony themselves plus possible disclosures to devs? Makes no sense if PS5 is 2020 or 2021.
We are missing key info and need more leaks!
Yes I would.
Might seem a lot to you now but that's already 3.3TF behind a 1H 2017 GPU, now imagine that PS5 will probably last till 2028/2029.
Just like CPU clock speeds/cores, memory and bandwidth we can always have more graphical power.
I'm not talking about being up there with the best desktop GPU's, some settle for less others settle for more.
3 Shawn - yes there will be a PS5, will be a new gen
2 Kaz - Playstation discussing direction internally
1 Shu - not a question of when, but if
The rest is analysts predictions 3 of them as far as I know, thong, pachter and another.
That's all the info anyone ever mentioned about PS5.. It's sad.
Oh and tweak town with their discrete gpu
While I agree, it's good to have more but cost will be a factor, as they will try and get the most for as little cost as poss. I'm sure it will be more but if PS5 is 2019, I don't expect it to be a lot more, probably around 10-12Tf.
They are analysts though and should be taken with a grain of salt, given that we're in the middle of the gen it's natural to discuss what comes next or have an opinion about it.Well I think there has been consistent noise about PS5 from September last year (Damian Thong) and this month (Pachter). Shu's comment you mention is something he said before we knew of PS4 Pro and now think that was a reference/hint of that.
Yeah but instead of $500 every 6-8 years many of us are now basically paying $400 every 3-4 years making the total cost $800 for the 6-8 year period instead on $500.
We need more insiders to throw us a bone. We're so thirsty and ready for more info.
At least indicate whether the current plan is to launch in late 2018, 2019 or 20/21!
64 ROPs sounds right. Would 256 bit give enough bandwidth to feed a 10-12TF GPU?
16GB seems low considering maybe 4+ GB reserved for OS. 32GB?
Not very many people will choose that path, and most of us that do wound up buying more than one of a given console historically for different rooms/homes or out of sheer obsession with revisions. My two PS4s cost me less collectively than my two PS3s and this generation my second purchase was decidedly more capable than the first. That feels like progress to me.
There are multiple paths through the generation that hit different price points:
- Technophile: buy PS4 and Pro at respective launches ($800)
- Budget Technophile: buy PS4 at launch, trade in on Pro at launch ($600)
- Early adopter: buy PS4 at launch and ride it out ($400)
- Patient enthusiast: wait for a larger library, buy Pro to play it ($350-400)
- Budget gamer: wait for PS4 price break and larger library ($200-350)
Giving consumers clear choices generally works out well.
Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
The PlayStation 4 Pro is better [from a technical perspective] than the PS4, so I think that's a half step towards the PlayStation 5. I think the PS5 will be another half step..
Will it play games that were made for the PlayStation 4 PRO? That's the question. I think it will.
I fall into the early adopter and budget gamer category right now. A lil of patient enthusiast too. I didnt get the launch PS4 until a year later. Got the 360 and PS3 two years after they launched. Only reason I'm even looking at the Pro now is a refurbished one is $289 at Walmart.
And all this was due to job situation. Before 2013? I was technophile, budget technophile all the way. I had both a PS4 and XBO on preorder...
Ironically, the company whose consoles and libraries I dont really like anymore ...I somehow wind up getting Nintendo consoles the year they launch, lol. I just barely buy games for them...
Cheers Shin and Theonik. So I would air towards a more cautionary likelihood that they would hit only 16GB GDDR6, not so convinced they would go 384-bit bus (X1X is an aggressive design), guess it will depend if they feel 24GB is definitely necessary.
Yeah but instead of $500 every 6-8 years many of us are now basically paying $400 every 3-4 years making the total cost $800 for the 6-8 year period instead on $500. Add the online subscription too which are now standard on all consoles and the $599 PS3 price everybody laughed at suddenly feel cheap.
Like I've said before, I want Crazy Ken back, the current baby steps consoles with budget PC parts couldn't be more boring. There are barely any surprises anymore, those with 1080ti's today are probably already playing the next gen of consoles.
I fall into the early adopter and budget gamer category right now.
Well I think there has been consistent noise about PS5 from September last year (Damian Thong) and this month (Pachter). Shu's comment you mention is something he said before we knew of PS4 Pro and now think that was a reference/hint of that.
That's the key thing here - it *is* noise, not a signal.
We want a signal, someone. Some clear info.
I'm a budget technophile.
Yeah I think we'd have heard a lot more rumbling (and grumbling) by now if it was.It's not coming in 2018.
It's not coming in 2018.
Yeah I think we'd have heard a lot more rumbling (and grumbling) by now if it was.
I think late 2019 or maybe early 2020 if they want to take a different tack.
Cheers Shin and Theonik. So I would air towards a more cautionary likelihood that they would hit only 16GB GDDR6, not so convinced they would go 384-bit bus (X1X is an aggressive design), guess it will depend if they feel 24GB is definitely necessary.
I think I am being too hopeful for Q4 2019 and sonycowboy's 2020 H2 target date is more likely.
Regarding uncore on the GPU. My cursory analysis is definitely flawed since I did consider that GCN CU = NCU and Navi isn't a big break in design (that was my big caveat, apart from using SRAM scaling factors).
My implicit assumption is that the total logic plus major caches caught by the CU and CPU measures would account for only 47% of the chip (164mm2/348mm2 in Liverpool).
If we look at Liverpool we had
18 active CUs / 1,152 Stream Processors
32 ROPS & 72 TMUs
8 ACEs / 64 Queues per ACE
PS4 can do 512 (64 x 8 ACE) threads for fine grain compute, that is a ratio of 2.25 Stream Processors per thread.
I simply applied the same ratios in my assumption i.e. each CU would receive 4 TMUs and potentially there would be around 36-40 ACEs with 64 queues/ACE meaning next gen APU fine grain compute would be across 2,304-2,560 threads. This number is hugely variable since it may be that they would need far fewer ACEs.
The TMUs scale to 340 (85 x 4) delivering 374GTexel/s @ 1.1GHz (PS4: 57.6), that I am confident of unless Navi is a total break.
ROPs....this is where significant savings can be made....
PS4 fill rate is 32 x 2 ops/cycle x 800MHz = 51.2GPixel/s
I can't really imagine them going beyond 64 ROPs (140.8 Gpixel/s @1.1GHz). Keeping the same ratio would imply >150 ROPs for the next APU. It will never need that many. Max 96 top-out (TITAN X level) and that would also be overkill.
Let's say when all is said and done and after OS (4Gb), games eat up 9Gb, that's 13Gb total, leaves 3Gb for future games/services (doesn't seem like much).
Looking at Linus video about VRAM a single frame at 1080p is 8.3MB at 2160p that's 33.2MB (just not sure how this all ties together, goes above my head).
On AMD side of things Navi is the first GPU architecture under Raja Koduri's leadership that can either pan out well or bad, can't really say.
I'm a bit surprised/confused about this. If they are coming later than sooner then logically I think they are waiting for 7nm but then for that I would think 2020 is the realistic time frame looking at the timeline of 16nm and Apple taking the first volume production runs of new nodes.
If the above is close to right then why are we hearing anything about PS5 this early? Did we get as much talk and articles about PS4 in 2009/10? I don't think so?
Outside of stating the obvious, I've never gotten the impression he's good at predicting things. So basically don't expect PS5 in 2019 or that it's only a half step.Are Pacthers predictions usually spot on? I only ask because this news is starting to follow me around the web outside of GAF.
I think you're reading too much into what you're seeing.
The talk and articles you speak of are literally just speculation. There's no substance to them at all.
Whereas, if PS5 were really coming out in 2018, there'd almost certainly be dekits out in the wild; in which case we'd have anything from pastebin spec-sheets, to devkit photos, to early rumours from devs about the relative performance levels.
We don't have any of that, so we can just interpret the chatter as simply fans being thirsty for info. and speculating on what could be... because that's literally all it is.
If anything, I wonder whether Sony will opt to implement a reasonably large pool of cheap DDR4 on the PCB for OS features. Since it's such a waste to carve off such a large portion of your expensive high performance memory for OS functions that simply don't require that level of performance.