Beyond sales and profit predictions they are always wrong.
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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Beyond sales and profit predictions they are always wrong.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Shin said:
Masayasu Ito also did that 4gamer interview where a high-end PS4 was discussed while mere weeks later we now know Sony had final hardware PS4 Pro devkits!
I'm not sure if those title changes really mean anything or are the product of the SCE>SIE transition? Ito has always been both a hardware and software SVP/EVP?
Honestly if disclosures to devs have already been happening per Matt then I would think PS5 is much further along than having a top engineer in place just over a year before?
Remember when he predicted Switch (or nx at the time) would be close to PS4 in power because it could run breath of the wild?
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Not true.
Avaya's analysis, while very good, misses one important piece, namely that the CUs alone =/= the GPU.
The GPU consists of a whole host of fixed function hardware that is important to rendering and facilitating GPU compute. The CUs are merely the execution unit (ALUs), but you also have things like the ROPs, TMUs etc that all take up space on the die and will require varying amount depending on the GPU micro-architecture. So your assumption about all the "un-core" elements occupying an equal amount of space is certainly not a safe one.
For example, the PS4 and PS4Pro (and Xb1X) have 32 ROPs. A PS5 with 85 - 95 CUs will probably be on the threshold where the required number of render back-ends need to go up to 64. The number TMUs equally will invariably go up, since a GPU processing more geometry will require more texturing units to texture them.
Without knowing anything about AMD's Navi architecture, it's impossible to tell at this stage. Maybe we'll hear more at Hotchips in August?
Either way, I think the eventual PS5 is likely to be a little more conservative than avaya's analysis presents (but probably very close - assuming Sony sticks with an APU design and doesn't go buck wild with an MCM-based solution).
THE:MILKMAN
Member
For me it isn't about his accuracy anymore, more that him doing such a piece is another indication PS5 is coming rather soon!
Unless like the longer and longer lead times on node shrinks Sony are now doing 2.5 year hype building?
Shin
Banned
That's the industry craving for PS5 news, there so little to go on that the same is being ran by many sites.
Theonik
Member
That's because these systems use 8Gb modules which translates to 1GB per 32-bit chip. 16Gb modules deliver 2x the memory on the same bus. It's how we got the PS4.
Shin
Banned
After PS4 launched he was re-assigned, he didn't have anything to do with PS4Pro I think which matches his CV and what you said.
PS3 came out in 2006,there is a 2+ year gap there also, it seems Sony shuffles certain people around during downtime.
His role was completely different between 2014 and 2016 (again 2 year gap) and they had Pro until last year that they were working on.
He might not have been needed for that as it's basically a souped up PS4, PS5 is a different story.
To me it all makes sense at least, plus they aren't or shouldn't rush PS5.
They got to deal with BC, PSVR2 and whatever else, HDMI spec itself brings Dynamic HD and VRR.
I really would like a 14-16TF machine that runs at 3.5GHz...sigh.
Thanks Theonik, it's the answer I was looking for - density.
Fredrik
Member
I think this would be worse though, especially since Shenmue 3 was a Kickstarter. I know it's dumb to do it but I bet lots of people got swayed over to buy a PS4 for Shenmue 3 and FF7 Remake in particular. I guess it could be a GT6 situation though where they're simply released too late.
Personally I'm rooting for a late 2020 launch with beefy hardware and some unique features, with some extra time for another wave of 1st party awesomeness on PS4 before PS5 arrives.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I'm just not sure that Linkedin profile tells us much at all. He did do this interview as I mentioned previously and he seemed to be fully involved/knowledgeable (for a exec at least) about PS4 Pro: http://www.4gamer.net/games/990/G999024/20151021121/
I really don't see it coming so late if the likes of Matt have had disclosures already.
Fredrik
Member
Yeah but instead of $500 every 6-8 years many of us are now basically paying $400 every 3-4 years making the total cost $800 for the 6-8 year period instead on $500. Add the online subscription too which are now standard on all consoles and the $599 PS3 price everybody laughed at suddenly feel cheap.
Like I've said before, I want Crazy Ken back, the current baby steps consoles with budget PC parts couldn't be more boring. There are barely any surprises anymore, those with 1080ti's today are probably already playing the next gen of consoles.
Shin
Banned
I read that, it's how I found his LinkedIn profile. Doesn't strike me as someone that would toy with what he puts on his CV, Shawn did say that it will take a while before we see it.
Matt is too vague, don't know if it's a personal opinion or what he isn't clear either except dw about BC.
Which is stating the obvious, as is the 499 since more memory and performance cost, see Xbox.
Im sure they've fished around to get feedback since that panned out well for them, but other than that Im not sure there is anything concrete.
It is going to be a half step if they go with zen1/vega, 8-9Tf gpu? No thanks and fuck them.
Believe me I want a native 4k console with uhd, something above 12tf and 3.2ghz cpu and that's possible if they wait till 2020/2021.
I mean shit they can launch using a 5nm process, which is what an improved improved 7nm.
Plus something else stuck out that Matt from NDP said, Sony will launch when it makes business sense not when consumers expect it.
PS4 sales aren't declining so there is no need for them to rush, as sad as it may be for us wanting a new box.
From R&D to launch it was 5 years for PS4, it's gonna be 2020/2021 :/
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Shin said:
You really think R&D for PS5 started only this year or last? I don't think PS4 Pro had much impact on PS5 development and also it didn't take up much resource within Sony compared to a from scratch design.
I would go so far as to guess PS5 R&D started shortly after PS4 launch in say mid 2014 in parallel with PS4 Pro.
I would love for Matt to give a more solid indication of when PS5 might land. 2018-19 or 2020-21! Right now all the 'noise' for me indicates a late 2018 launch but a delay for business reasons to 2019 could happen.
Darklor01
Might need to stop sniffing glue
I think it is common practice to start discussions and planning about a new box shortly after release of a new one, pretty much as you said.
Shin
Banned
Why would they butcher PS4 sales though the extra option exists in the form of Pro (dumb name).
That itself buys them more time and keep momentum going, coupled with the games coming out.
2019 could happen and they'll most likely be sitting at 100m shipped/sold or they wait.
Wouldn't you rather have Zen3, Navi+, 7nm EUV, 5nm, GDDR6 or even LCHBM (assuming we get 90% of this)?
That's state of the art, if they release with what's available atm you'll have even bigger differences than Pro/Xbox right now, do not want :S
Both MS/PS are making truck load of money from services, take the 200m hit or whatever.
And make stronger/faster/more capable consoles, they are making nearly 4-5b per year on game services alone no?
Such a loss is pennies to what they are making these days in comparison to the PS3 days on a yearly basis - greedy SoBs.
That itself buys them more time and keep momentum going, coupled with the games coming out.
2019 could happen and they'll most likely be sitting at 100m shipped/sold or they wait.
Wouldn't you rather have Zen3, Navi+, 7nm EUV, 5nm, GDDR6 or even LCHBM (assuming we get 90% of this)?
That's state of the art, if they release with what's available atm you'll have even bigger differences than Pro/Xbox right now, do not want :S
Both MS/PS are making truck load of money from services, take the 200m hit or whatever.
And make stronger/faster/more capable consoles, they are making nearly 4-5b per year on game services alone no?
Such a loss is pennies to what they are making these days in comparison to the PS3 days on a yearly basis - greedy SoBs.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
As long as the CPU is decent, has more RAM and much better memory bandwidth, would 8-9Tf GPU really be that disappointing ?
People are focused on the Pro and X numbers too much but all games are designed with the base consoles in mind. Pro and X are mostly just using that extra power to run current gen games at 4k, these games are not directly made for them exclusively
PS4 only has 1.84Tf and results in fantastic looking games like God of War or Uncharted 4, so going from games designed for 1.84Tf, to games designed for 8-9Tf, would be a pretty big step up.
I do expect GPU power will actually be a little higher than 8-9Tf though.
if they decide to manufacture the ps5 APU at 7nm , they have to wait for the process to mature , maybe in 2020-21. PS4 came out with matured 28nm process and still they were unable to meet demand . For a new platform the unit is required to be present in large numbers from the start to meet the demand. 7nm wont be mature enough to provide such huge yields in its 1st year . So even if ps5 use 7nm , it has to come out later than 2019. And without this process change its quite difficult to show a good jump between 2 platforms.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I pretty much agree. I'm not sure about the TF of the GPU but I see Damian Thong also claims PS5 will be >10TF: http://gamingbolt.com/ps5-will-launch-in-late-2018-will-be-more-than-10-tflops-analyst
Matt, if you read this.... do you have an opinion about what Damian Thong has to say above!?
newbong95 said:
You've explained this much better than my terrible attempts. The best case scenario according to TSMC is 2H 2019 for mass volume 7nm EUV and that would be for much smaller chips for Smartphones, right? You almost guarantee delays for this so 2021 at least for 300+mm^2 PS5 chips.
Pachter is a money guy. His job is to look at the companies, their leadership, their product portfolio and likely projects, take into account competition, political, legal and economic development and then try to forecast what is happening to the share price of those companies, so that industrial investors can make informed decisions about what to do with their billions of dollars.
He knows the key people and is very well informed about many behind-the-scenes details, but tech isn't really his forte. Nevertheless, because he is so deep in the scene, he is often asked for his opinions or guesses by journalists who have nothing better to report. And since Pach seems to be a nice enough fella, he answers, not really giving shit about what I or anybody else thinks of his predictions. Because we are not the ones paying his multimillion(?) dollar salary.
Shin
Banned
Yes I would.
Might seem a lot to you now but that's already 3.3TF behind a 1H 2017 GPU, now imagine that PS5 will probably last till 2028/2029.
Just like CPU clock speeds/cores, memory and bandwidth we can always have more graphical power.
I'm not talking about being up there with the best desktop GPU's, some settle for less others settle for more.
Not a big step because that power is going to be used to render 4x the resolution.
As long as sony is not in a rush to push ps5 out like nintendo was with wii u after wii , i think the delay is inevitable.
Have any of you guys considered that ps5 might feature some new machine learning(hardware) specific enhancements ?
THE:MILKMAN
Member
But then the question is why is there so much talk of PS5 by both media and Sony themselves plus possible disclosures to devs? Makes no sense if PS5 is 2020 or 2021.
We are missing key info and need more leaks!
Shin
Banned
3 Shawn - yes there will be a PS5, will be a new gen
2 Kaz - Playstation discussing direction internally
1 Shu - not a question of when, but if
The rest is analysts predictions 3 of them as far as I know, thong, pachter and another.
That's all the info anyone ever mentioned about PS5.. It's sad.
Oh and tweak town with their discrete gpu
Yautja_Warrior
Member
While I agree, it's good to have more but cost will be a factor, as they will try and get the most for as little cost as poss. I'm sure it will be more but if PS5 is 2019, I don't expect it to be a lot more, probably around 10-12Tf.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Well I think there has been consistent noise about PS5 from September last year (Damian Thong) and this month (Pachter). Shu's comment you mention is something he said before we knew of PS4 Pro and now think that was a reference/hint of that.
Shin
Banned
Yeah I hear ya, initially I wanted 12TF (simply because nVidia>AMD in that regard and is completely different, I used the GTX 1080Ti at 4K as an example).
GTX 1060 (4.4TF) beat the shit out RX 480 (5.8TF), without PC overhead and shits, I think 12 will be enough for native 4K with all bells and whistles IMHO.
They are analysts though and should be taken with a grain of salt, given that we're in the middle of the gen it's natural to discuss what comes next or have an opinion about it.
Hell I would be happy if the box held up to what I expect and releases in 2018 even, but I'd prefer they delay it a bit and we get more out of our purchase.
Would really love for these guys to eat ~$100 loss on each console just to get deliver something fantastic, but that's dreamland territory :S, kinda blows really.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
We need more insiders to throw us a bone. We're so thirsty and ready for more info.
At least indicate whether the current plan is to launch in late 2018, 2019 or 20/21!
At least indicate whether the current plan is to launch in late 2018, 2019 or 20/21!
Not very many people will choose that path, and most of us that do wound up buying more than one of a given console historically for different rooms/homes or out of sheer obsession with revisions. My two PS4s cost me less collectively than my two PS3s and this generation my second purchase was decidedly more capable than the first. That feels like progress to me.
There are multiple paths through the generation that hit different price points:
- Technophile: buy PS4 and Pro at respective launches ($800)
- Budget Technophile: buy PS4 at launch, trade in on Pro at launch ($600)
- Early adopter: buy PS4 at launch and ride it out ($400)
- Patient enthusiast: wait for a larger library, buy Pro to play it ($350-400)
- Budget gamer: wait for PS4 price break and larger library ($200-350)
Giving consumers clear choices generally works out well.
Cheers Shin and Theonik. So I would air towards a more cautionary likelihood that they would hit only 16GB GDDR6, not so convinced they would go 384-bit bus (X1X is an aggressive design), guess it will depend if they feel 24GB is definitely necessary.
I think I am being too hopeful for Q4 2019 and sonycowboy's 2020 H2 target date is more likely.
Regarding uncore on the GPU. My cursory analysis is definitely flawed since I did consider that GCN CU = NCU and Navi isn't a big break in design (that was my big caveat, apart from using SRAM scaling factors).
My implicit assumption is that the total logic plus major caches caught by the CU and CPU measures would account for only 47% of the chip (164mm2/348mm2 in Liverpool).
If we look at Liverpool we had
18 active CUs / 1,152 Stream Processors
32 ROPS & 72 TMUs
8 ACEs / 64 Queues per ACE
PS4 can do 512 (64 x 8 ACE) threads for fine grain compute, that is a ratio of 2.25 Stream Processors per thread.
I simply applied the same ratios in my assumption i.e. each CU would receive 4 TMUs and potentially there would be around 36-40 ACEs with 64 queues/ACE meaning next gen APU fine grain compute would be across 2,304-2,560 threads. This number is hugely variable since it may be that they would need far fewer ACEs.
The TMUs scale to 340 (85 x 4) delivering 374GTexel/s @ 1.1GHz (PS4: 57.6), that I am confident of unless Navi is a total break.
ROPs....this is where significant savings can be made....
PS4 fill rate is 32 x 2 ops/cycle x 800MHz = 51.2GPixel/s
I can't really imagine them going beyond 64 ROPs (140.8 Gpixel/s @1.1GHz). Keeping the same ratio would imply >150 ROPs for the next APU. It will never need that many. Max 96 top-out (TITAN X level) and that would also be overkill.
I think I am being too hopeful for Q4 2019 and sonycowboy's 2020 H2 target date is more likely.
Regarding uncore on the GPU. My cursory analysis is definitely flawed since I did consider that GCN CU = NCU and Navi isn't a big break in design (that was my big caveat, apart from using SRAM scaling factors).
My implicit assumption is that the total logic plus major caches caught by the CU and CPU measures would account for only 47% of the chip (164mm2/348mm2 in Liverpool).
If we look at Liverpool we had
18 active CUs / 1,152 Stream Processors
32 ROPS & 72 TMUs
8 ACEs / 64 Queues per ACE
PS4 can do 512 (64 x 8 ACE) threads for fine grain compute, that is a ratio of 2.25 Stream Processors per thread.
I simply applied the same ratios in my assumption i.e. each CU would receive 4 TMUs and potentially there would be around 36-40 ACEs with 64 queues/ACE meaning next gen APU fine grain compute would be across 2,304-2,560 threads. This number is hugely variable since it may be that they would need far fewer ACEs.
The TMUs scale to 340 (85 x 4) delivering 374GTexel/s @ 1.1GHz (PS4: 57.6), that I am confident of unless Navi is a total break.
ROPs....this is where significant savings can be made....
PS4 fill rate is 32 x 2 ops/cycle x 800MHz = 51.2GPixel/s
I can't really imagine them going beyond 64 ROPs (140.8 Gpixel/s @1.1GHz). Keeping the same ratio would imply >150 ROPs for the next APU. It will never need that many. Max 96 top-out (TITAN X level) and that would also be overkill.
Shin
Banned
That's why almost every news outlet is running with the same story every time PS5 is mentioned, we thirsty!
512GB/s is probably minimum target bandwidth for that sort of power if you look at Vega spec.
You're right about OS reserve, which will probably be higher this time....signs pointing towards 384-bit bus from this perspective. Given time to next shrink post that point, Sony may well eat that additional cost. None of this will balloon the price to 499 - there will be no vapour chambers, no additional peripherals and no infant disc drive technology. We are probably discussing margin on the APU of either USD90 per chip or USD100 per chip.
I fall into the early adopter and budget gamer category right now. A lil of patient enthusiast too. I didnt get the launch PS4 until a year later. Got the 360 and PS3 two years after they launched. Only reason I'm even looking at the Pro now is a refurbished one is $289 at Walmart.
And all this was due to job situation. Before 2013? I was technophile, budget technophile all the way. I had both a PS4 and XBO on preorder...
Ironically, the company whose consoles and libraries I dont really like anymore ...I somehow wind up getting Nintendo consoles the year they launch, lol. I just barely buy games for them...
LordOfChaos
Member
So, not so definitive as the title, he's guessing like the rest of us...
One point is indisputable, using a die shrink on the 8.5G consoles reduces the power boost over that revision the 9th gen can provide. Though since the CPUs stayed the same, the CPU is where the 9G could really outpower the 8th gen, and after that high bandwidth memory technologies.
Darklor01
Might need to stop sniffing glue
I'm mostly with you. Though, I'm a bit laggy on that second console purchase as of the last two generations. I bought PS2 and XBOX at launch. I bought PS3 at launch and XBOX 360 shortly after. 360 became my primary console. I bought PS4 at launch and XBOX One shortly after. I bought PS4 Pro at launch and will be buying XBOX One X at launch.
Shin
Banned
From my understanding of how bus width, latency and bandwidth works I'm under the impression that a smaller but faster bus would be more desirable.
Though MS have the tools and skill set to profile their SDK, which is exactly what they did with XBOX to come to the conclusion they needed a 384-bit bus.
On that note I'm of opinion that they have more expertise in this field compared to Sony, after all it's their main business in the end (PC).
Let's say when all is said and done and after OS (4Gb), games eat up 9Gb, that's 13Gb total, leaves 3Gb for future games/services (doesn't seem like much).
Looking at Linus video about VRAM a single frame at 1080p is 8.3MB at 2160p that's 33.2MB (just not sure how this all ties together, goes above my head).
On AMD side of things Navi is the first GPU architecture under Raja Koduri's leadership that can either pan out well or bad, can't really say.
Polygonal_Sprite
Gold Member
In terms of visuals, consoles are all about the exclusive content showing off what they can do. Those "baby step consoles with budget PC parts" produced the likes of DC, The Order, U4, Horizon and in the near future titles like GT Sport, God of War, Detroit and Spider-Man. Those titles compete visually with anything on the most expensive gaming PC.
I honestly think that real time graphics is just as much about artistic talent and budget as it is hardware power.
For PS5 there's simply no need for 12-15tflop GPU's, 4Ghz Zen CPU's, 64GB's of memory and the $600 price tags those sort of specs would come with.
When you look at what Sony have achieved with a Jaguar CPU, 1.8tf GPU and 8GB's of memory then they will be able to provide a generational leap in visuals with a Ryzen CPU, 16GB's of memory and a 10tf GPU.
People really need to lower their expectations. If extreme hardware power is what you're after then invest in a state of the art gaming PC and buy a PlayStation to compliment it.
Shin
Banned
Shiiiit I thought you and Amy S were up there with me in the enthusiast crowd since I keep seeing you guys in every PS5/next generation thread
Also that impulsive Nintendo buy haha, I'm finally jumping in soon with this generation because bored and shit and BC on PS5 will be a reality.
That's the key thing here - it *is* noise, not a signal.
We want a signal, someone. Some clear info.
I'm a budget technophile.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Sure but my bigger point was that there is no smoke without fire. I really do think PS5 is now coming much sooner than many here think.
How many think PS5 for late 2018? It wouldn't surprise me to be honest as there is now so much discussion/talk/comment about it including tidbits from the likes of Matt to make me think this.
I doubt we would be getting this much noise now if it wasn't coming until 2019 or even later.
Graphics Horse
Member
Yeah I think we'd have heard a lot more rumbling (and grumbling) by now if it was.
I think late 2019 or maybe early 2020 if they want to take a different tack.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I'm a bit surprised/confused about this. If they are coming later than sooner then logically I think they are waiting for 7nm but then for that I would think 2020 is the realistic time frame looking at the timeline of 16nm and Apple taking the first volume production runs of new nodes.
If the above is close to right then why are we hearing anything about PS5 this early? Did we get as much talk and articles about PS4 in 2009/10? I don't think so?
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
I would imagine 64 ROPs will be the maximum the PS5 can have provided they go with a 256-bit bus and 16Gbps GDDR6 as the memory solution.
The memory bandwidth available will top out at 512 GB/s with that memory setup, and 64ROPs would need, 563 GB/s bw to be fully saturated using the RGBA16 format (282 GB/s with RGBA8) - assuming a 1.1GHz GPU clock. Given that most modern games will use RGBA8 more than RGBA16, with 512 GB/s bw at least you'll be unlikely to see a situation where your ROPs are bw starved.
With significantly more ROPs, e.g. 96, it's possible that you'll be rather often unable to feed the ROPs sufficiently with only 512 GB/s memory bandwidth, and things will get worse from there if the Navi GPU micro-architecture allows Sony to push GPU clocks higher than 1.1GHz on traditional forced convective air cooling.
That's not normally how it works, Shin.
Normally the OS reservation, cordoned off at the start of the gen, includes the amount of memory required for the OS services, functions and features, as well as an allocation for future feature additions. That's one of the reasons why the OS reservation on PS4 and XB1 is so much.
Honestly though, i'm highly skeptical that the OS reservation next-gen will need to grow that much. It shouldn't really need to be more than the 3GB on the XB1X, since 4k game streaming is possibly one of the larger consumers of the OS memory footprint. I can't see the PS5 OS offering any features beyond than, which will require much more in terms of memory.
If anything, I wonder whether Sony will opt to implement a reasonably large pool of cheap DDR4 on the PCB for OS features. Since it's such a waste to carve off such a large portion of your expensive high performance memory for OS functions that simply don't require that level of performance.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
I think you're reading too much into what you're seeing.
The talk and articles you speak of are literally just speculation. There's no substance to them at all.
Whereas, if PS5 were really coming out in 2018, there'd almost certainly be dekits out in the wild; in which case we'd have anything from pastebin spec-sheets, to devkit photos, to early rumours from devs about the relative performance levels.
We don't have any of that, so we can just interpret the chatter as simply fans being thirsty for info. and speculating on what could be... because that's literally all it is.
Outside of stating the obvious, I've never gotten the impression he's good at predicting things. So basically don't expect PS5 in 2019 or that it's only a half step.
he's better at making headlines than guessing right.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
To be fair I can only read what is in front of me and it is confusing and contradictory! We have Pachter saying 2019 half step, Thong saying 2018 >10TF and Matt saying not 2018 and be more realistic about specs.
None of this is making logical sense to me right now. And that's before we get into wondering about dev kits etc. I'm sure Sony would change things a bit (compared to the leaks of 2012) to try and limit leaks!
Graphics Horse
Member
They are doing this in the Pro's larger amount of ddr3 if you weren't aware, so yes that is very possible.