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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"
- Thread starter Bitch Pudding
- Start date
Koala Driving a Ferrari
Member
I'd love to be a fly on the wall inside the Sony engineering offices at the moment.
It was really interesting to hear Albert Penello on the Xbox IGN podcast state that the Xbox One X actually began its initial conceptualization before the original Xbox One launched (pre-2013). There's such a huge lead time with new console engineering projects, so it'd be fantastic to get a hint of what Cerny and co have up their sleaves for the follow-up to the PS4.
It was really interesting to hear Albert Penello on the Xbox IGN podcast state that the Xbox One X actually began its initial conceptualization before the original Xbox One launched (pre-2013). There's such a huge lead time with new console engineering projects, so it'd be fantastic to get a hint of what Cerny and co have up their sleaves for the follow-up to the PS4.
Obviously PS5 is deep into development, while the next Xbox is also being designed. If PS5 releases a year before the next Xbox (not saying it will) Microsoft might have the advantage in process technology, opting for 7nm+ with EUV, whereas Sony might only have access to 7nm without EUV.
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't first gen 7nm an iteration of 10nm, while 7nm+ is 7nm ?
Too many consoles releasing, too close together IMO. Will confuse consumers, split development too much.
2013 - PS4, Xbox One (28nm process)
2016 - PS4 Pro (16nm FinFET)
2017 - Xbox One X (16nm FinFET)
2020 - PS5 - Xbox Next (7nm FinFET)
2023 - PS5 Pro - Xbox Next X (5nm GAFFET process with EUV)
On the latest episode of IGNs Podcast Unlocked they had Microsofts Albert Penello as a guest. He said that they were in the planning stages for the X before the Xbox One was even released.
Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
The thing Im curious about is
Lets say xbox next and PS5
The both launch at $499 and are very close in power, there roughly
12tflop gpu
20gb ram (4 for system)
8 core mobile zen
2tb HD
Now what if games made for that spec could run on 1x but at 1080p and low settings.If MS were to do this they would have a large advantage over sony, because by 2020 there will be about 10 million 1X owners who can play next gen software and a few years down the line if the 1X starts to gimp development they could stop support for the 1X.Its basically like the iOS model.
It would be interesting because if they did do this it would show what the 1X is capable of when not being held back by the og X1.
Lets say xbox next and PS5
The both launch at $499 and are very close in power, there roughly
12tflop gpu
20gb ram (4 for system)
8 core mobile zen
2tb HD
Now what if games made for that spec could run on 1x but at 1080p and low settings.If MS were to do this they would have a large advantage over sony, because by 2020 there will be about 10 million 1X owners who can play next gen software and a few years down the line if the 1X starts to gimp development they could stop support for the 1X.Its basically like the iOS model.
It would be interesting because if they did do this it would show what the 1X is capable of when not being held back by the og X1.
Descendant
Neo Member
I just think a 2020 release would be a good year to release a PS5. Especially since they are doing so well this gen. It really depends I think on how much pressure Nintendo & Xbox gives the PS4 in the next year or so.
Bigby_Wolf
Banned
Yes, this is what I'm most curious about.
I think MS has been very clever with what they put into XbX and how that will position them for XbX2.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
1.84 TFLOPS vs ~4.2 TFLOPS (if you only compare FP32 numbers, more if you think about FP16 optimisations) gives me little more than 128% improvement of GPU power and that is not the only thing that scaled up.
Goalus
Member
Yes, that is exactly what MS is aiming for with their strategy. In order to succeed they need to produce flawless development tools and APIs so that developers don't need to adapt their code to different hardware targets, but I am quite that they will deliver in this regard.
i think it will be a while before we see a ps5 yet because of 2 main reasons
1) piracy is not rampant on the current gen, i think this has always been a factor together with improvement in tech for releasing the next generation.
ps3 was rushed out under powered after sony promising 1080p60,
and piracy on ps3 lead to a rushed out underpowered ps4 that still cant hit 1080p60
2) 4k TV uptake still not at the right level
1) piracy is not rampant on the current gen, i think this has always been a factor together with improvement in tech for releasing the next generation.
ps3 was rushed out under powered after sony promising 1080p60,
and piracy on ps3 lead to a rushed out underpowered ps4 that still cant hit 1080p60
2) 4k TV uptake still not at the right level
EventHorizon
Member
That wouldn't be too many consoles. It is exactly the same number of console releases we have now with the addition of a computer that can play Xbox games.
PlayStation (2 releases-No Change)
- Base Console: Starts a new generation
- Pro release: Mid-gen upgrade
- Base Console - Xbox Entry into new generation
- X Release - Mid-gen upgrade
- Base Computer - Branched off of Xbox Game Development Kit for consumer use
- Base Computer X Release - Simple spec upgrade to base release
airmangataosenai
Member
The system has to wow people though. If they cant release something with an obvious boost beyond a slight resolution bump in 2019 it is a waste, 4k alone is unimpressive.
Koala Driving a Ferrari
Member
Agreed. Plus, with all of the investment that MS has put into backwards compatibility and the fact that their hardware engineering seems to be back on form, the Xbox platform could be a serious contender next gen. It will be really interesting to see who launches first between MS and Sony.
Does anyone think that MS could catch Sony off guard and release the next Xbox before the PS5 is ready (in a similar fashion to the Xbox 360 & PS3 launch period)?
Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
The PS4 was not rushed or underpowered.
i think most paying a premium for a pimped out xbone would just throw down another $400-500 for a nextbox when the time comes.
X1 isn't a console for a hypothetical mid tier audience and there probably isn't enough time to get it at that pricing sweet spot (in which case it'd be competing with the vanilla xbone which would be presumably firesale cheap in that scenario)
vpance
Member
No one is catching anyone off guard anymore when both will be sticking with AMD. Basically they should both have access to same set of chip configs on the same node process.
Everyone will jump on 7nm chips the moment it becomes mass production friendly and I expect to see them release new consoles at the same time again, in 2020.
Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
If ps5 and xbox next launch in 2020 and 1X will still be recieving Microsoft exclusives,you can be sure a lot of people will be fine playing these newer games at lower IQ and settings, because
1. Diminishing returns - even though next gen games made for the 1X would take a downgrade in IQ they would still be looking better because of the more advanced, polycount, lighting and effects.
2.1X and nextbox games will still see a nice boost in visuals because they wont be tied down to X1 hardware
3. As for the price, all that matters is the 1X is cheaper then the nextbox in 2020, and of course it would be substantially cheaper! When has 3yr old tech not been cheaper then modern tech.
Ive just come up with a way sony could counter that strategy, Its kinda crazy but it could win them the gen again.
Remember cerny saying 8tflop is needed for 4k and hoshi saying that this gen could be shorter.
Sony could release a zen based 8tflop gpu,16gb ram for 499 in 2018 it will play the same games as the ps4 family, but at 60fps and true 4k.
While it would not be the biggest leap, it eould still be able to hold its own against a 12 tflops machine and remember the most powerful console does not always win.
It would be a good way to counter ms ios like strategy.
PCWorld: Prices of SSDs and RAM will crash in 2019, Gartner predicts.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/319...dram-will-crash-in-2019-gartner-predicts.html
This could be good news for what could be crammed into next-gen consoles/
https://www.pcworld.com/article/319...dram-will-crash-in-2019-gartner-predicts.html
This could be good news for what could be crammed into next-gen consoles/
End of 2020 sounds fair enough i'll be content with that. if PS5 goes with a new CPU they might run in a dilemma similar to PS3 launch of $600. Sony might say if X is selling well at $500 why not $600 for PS5 better cpu and gpu teraflops? They might just take a loss on the system and keep it an even $500 and avoid the same repercussion they had with the PS3.
BlitzerRadic
Member
That makes no sense. If those people are ok playing with diminished IQ/performance, why the hell would they have bought a 1X in the first place?
Memorabilia
Member
I think you're right on the time-frame for the PS5.
But...on a side-note...I'm a bit perplexed by the so-called "8K push"...not by your analysis, mind you...but rather, by industry giants like Sony thinking the market is going to be ready & have sufficient demand for yet another rez jump. I mean, market penetration for 4K sets isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Sure, more TVs sold over the next couple yrs may be 4K sets....but the vast majority of families still have 1080 or lower sets & don't appear to be upgrading. I don't see how 8K is gonna take off when 4K is barely gaining anything more than a large niche foothold in the market as it is.....
Thats a Greay Area
Member
I was going to write a long post about standards ratification, industry adoption timelines, equipment changeovers and consumer adoption but in the end I'll just ask this about people's 8K PS5 musings:
What kind of graphics card to you foresee launching within the next 3 years that can push 33 million pixels at 30fps let alone 60 in a consumer -console- sized box?
This is a good point. I'm highly skeptical of the benefits of 8K in the consumer space. On 100"+ displays in the future? Sure, maybe. 720p to 1080p was a pretty big leap, to the point where 720 content can look pretty ugly. 1080p to 4k was nice, but nowhere near as impressive as the leap to 1080p. I recently got a new TV, and almost every other feature about it (e.g. smart features, contrast, brightness, light uniformity) impressed me more than the resolution bump. I'd much rather games stayed at a 1080 or 4k target with solid frame rates and improved texture filtering, tessellation and other effects than going after a pointless wankfest like 8k.
Also no way Pro will become default PS4. If somebody doesn't have a PS4 by 2019/2020 with all the crazy content and huge userbase available, they are probably very price sensitive. Offering a super slim PS4 at a cut down sub-$200 price would make sense. I know plenty of cheapskates/PCMRers who nabbed a PS1,2 and/or 3 at bargain end-of-life prices just to experience the few exclusives they had missed or for their kids (who cares if a kid smashes an old $120 console?).
Koala Driving a Ferrari
Member
Good find. That'll be fantastic news if it ends up proving to be an accurate prediction. SSDs should be an essential addition to the next gen iterations of the Playstation and Xbox. Load times on the current gen consoles really are over the top.
Blam
Member
Yup I'm expecting a good 1TB SSD as a normal package and 2-3TB as a 50$ upgrade.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Tbh, I find them significantly better than last generation (PS4 vs. PS3).
I've never thought load times on PS4 were particularly bad at all. In fact, the mere fact that games are now mandated to install to the HDD, means that we're now relying on superior HDD transfer speeds as opposed to horrible Bluray Drive streaming speeds.
Are load times on XB1 bad then? Because, otherwise I can't see where this complaint comes from.
mikezilla2
Member
there was a newr report that predicted this Whole thing Lasting thro 228
Koala Driving a Ferrari
Member
Oh, the PS3 was terrible in that regard too. I still have nightmares over Gran Turismo 5's load times
If you play games regularly on a PC with an SSD, the return to current gen console load times becomes even more jarring. It has to be fixed next gen, especially with the onset of 4k textures and games over 100gb in size. Console manufacturer's can no longer rely purely on slow 5400rpm laptop hard drives IMHO.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Oh, the PS3 was terrible in that regard too. I still have nightmares over Gran Turismo 5's load times
If you play games regularly on a PC with an SSD, the return to current gen console load times becomes even more jarring. It has to be fixed next gen, especially with the onset of 4k textures and games over 100gb in size. Console manufacturer's can no longer rely purely on slow 5400rpm laptop hard drives IMHO.
You're definitely right there, in that an increase in visual fidelity and the quality of in-game assets next-gen will necessitate the inclusion of a solution to provide higher mass storage transfer speeds.
On the other hand, this could be provided by a simple SSD or even something more exotic like AMD's HBCC technology; i.e. a chunk of NAND Flash for caching data together with a v.high capacity HDD.
I'm not convinced MS can get away with such an expensive release every 3 or 4 years...they might get away with this as it's 4 years since XBO but in 3 years to release 'next gen' I think could be stretching it.
I think he was saying XBOX GPU is ~43% more than Pro (I assume anyway!)
For a console, yes
Yeah, I thought this - we can't even get 4K60 so what makes people think we'll get a good 8K in 3/4 years?
The best bet is 4K60 with bells and whistles and the odd title 8K
Not exactly because PS4 Pro has features from Vega like RPM that allow devs to get more out of the GPU by moving some workloads over to fp16.
Maroon Gamer
Member
Maybe we could see something like this in the new consoles:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...sors-with-integrated-amd-graphics-and-memory/
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...sors-with-integrated-amd-graphics-and-memory/
I actually agree. If I had to bet money, I would say PS5 in Fall 2020, right out the U.S. election and then Xbox Next in Fall 2021 (4 years after Scorpio, 8 years after XBone).
Microsoft would certainly be able to get their SoC fabbed on 7nm+ and perhaps get it with EUV lithography since 7nm and 7nm+ are said to be compatible with EUV.
EUV probably won't happen for a PS5 SoC on first-gen 7nm although it's technically possible. It's really down to when EUV is truly ready for mass production.
As for what's really important, the console itself, if Microsoft is targeting the next Xbox to release in 4 years, they'll have the oppertunity to use HBM3 which is something they're considering vs GDDR6.
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1332180
That's pretty big although I think it's pretty unlikely consoles will switch away from having discrete coprocessors when the time pressure is so high
I was just trying to understand this quote;
which was in reply to this;
Mind you PsyChometer doesn't seem to have any understanding of the Pro upgrades.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
The longer quote was:
...and we were taking about if PS4 Pro was a good jump over PS4 or not I think.
Yeah I know - it makes no sense, I just assumed he was talking about XBOX over Pro because it is about 43% IIRC, every man and his dog knows the GPU is >double from PS4 to Pro, the general arguments I've seen have been that XBOX over Pro is like PS4 over XBO.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I doubt it but who knows. I take it this collaboration is the mysterious 3rd semi-custom design win AMD were talking about when One X and Pro were rumoured 18 months ago?
I would ask does it need to have a wow factor now? Look at the most played games and they aren't the most graphical intensive. If games continue to be service based then it is all about user and engagement metrics. Sony make very little from the console so it makes sense to have smaller more frequent jumps in performance to enable consumers to stay within the eco system.
My overall question is if sony releases a 12.5 tb ps5 in 2019 and ms releases a 16tb xb2 in 2021 how much difference are we gonna realistically see between the 2 development wise in the first few years? Theyd both liikely be able to do 4k 60fps with overhead for additional graphical features but are we really expecting any huge graphical differences with the next consoles?
OsirisBlack
Banned
Interestingly enough Im hearing that the next Sony machine will still be able to play all PS4 games. So his PS4 pro to become default PS4 isnt completely off. It wont play PS5 games though.
Sneaky Potato
Banned
Can i get an account permanent ban please I cant find out who the mods are. Sorry for derailing the topic
Could it be the next Sony machine isn't PS5, but a PS4 Ultra, something just strong enough to surpass X1X? That is something I could see happening in 2018 or 2019, if it does at all.
Personally, I think the next Sony console will be PS5. I think the announcement could happen between December 3rd 2019 (25th anniversary of PS-X released in Japan) and February 2020.
Azelover
Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
I hate to burst your bubble but none of that is gonna happen.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
A PS5 that is compatible with PS4 Pro patched games as well as with older PS4 games in Boost Mode (as if you were running all PS4 games on PS4 Pro with Boost Mode turned on) would be easier to implement and give users great BC support of their PS4 titles while allowing PS5 games to shine on PS5 free from previous generations restrictions
. It would be nice indeed , hopefully it is what we will get.Similar threads
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