Support NeoGAF

[Panajev2001a]

Could it be the next Sony machine isn't PS5, but a PS4 Ultra, something just strong enough to surpass X1X? That is something I could see happening in 2018 or 2019, if it does at all.

Personally, I think the next Sony console will be PS5. I think the announcement could happen between December 3rd 2019 (25th anniversary of PS-X released in Japan) and February 2020.

If Sony believes in console generations having one extra per generation iteration is quite enough. It costs a pretty penny to design these machines and put them in production and I do not think Sony will massively change their plans now because of Xbox One X. Better to focus on PS4 generation games and developing HW and SW stacks for PS5.

I still disagree with you massively on Sony relying on another 7-8 years generation not to hurt the launch of PS5 massively, it is a huge risky gamble made worse by MS iterative dreams.

 

[Sosokrates]

That makes no sense. If those people are ok playing with diminished IQ/performance, why the hell would they have bought a 1X in the first place?

They brought the 1X for the improved visuals, but that does not automatically mean every 1X owner will be opposed to playing next gen games at 1080p, or 1440p cb at lower settings.
Also the 1X being the lower tier console, would also attrack people wanting to play the latest fifa,gta, cod but is not as picky about visuals.
MS would have the best of both worlds the cheapest console on the market and maybe the most powerful.

 

[AmyS]

If Sony believes in console generations having one extra per generation iteration is quite enough. It costs a pretty penny to design these machines and put them in production and I do not think Sony will massively change their plans now because of Xbox One X. Better to focus on PS4 generation games and developing HW and SW stacks for PS5.

I still disagree with you massively on Sony relying on another 7-8 years generation not to hurt the launch of PS5 massively, it is a huge risky gamble made worse by MS iterative dreams.

So I am assuming you expect PS5 in 2019, or no?

 

[Panajev2001a]

So I am assuming you expect PS5 in 2019, or no?

You assume right, although I can see your reasons. Sony might miss a nice manufacturing process jump... although I see 7nm with EUV lithography possibly not ready without issues for TSMC / GloFo for a high volume thin profit margins product such as PS5, it is likely Sony benefits more from a proven and stable yet still modern manufacturing node at launch and use die shrinks to make the product cheaper and prep the PS5 Pro refresh. I honestly think that very long console generations are a risk.

Consumers need to accept sooner or later that major performance jumps will take companies longer and longer to achieve yet some illogically scream for iterative yearly refreshes (as if it gave people much more than just a way to show off to their friends with the latest shiny toy regardless of how useful it really is). The current mid generation refresh is a nice practical compromise/strategy I think.

Both Xbox 360 and PS3 were riding the long generation out, Nintendo left Wii cool down and followed up with a disappointing / not fully baked and poorly marketed/supported successor... will this set of favourable to such a long generation conditions repeat again for the next cycle? I do not think it will.

2018 would be best to keep momentum going, strong PS4 paving the way for a strong PS5, but I agree it might be a bit too early for a proper next generation jump.

 

[goonergaz]

You assume right, although I can see your reasons. Sony might miss a nice manufacturing process jump... although I see 7nm with EUV lithography possibly not ready without issues for TSMC / GloFo for a high volume thin profit margins product such as PS5, it is likely Sony benefits more from a proven and stable yet still modern manufacturing node at launch and use die shrinks to make the product cheaper and prep the PS5 Pro refresh. I honestly think that very long console generations are a risk.

Consumers need to accept sooner or later that major performance jumps will take companies longer and longer to achieve yet some illogically scream for iterative yearly refreshes (as if it gave people much more than just a way to show off to their friends with the latest shiny toy regardless of how useful it really is). The current mid generation refresh is a nice practical compromise/strategy I think.

Both Xbox 360 and PS3 were riding the long generation out, Nintendo left Wii cool down and followed up with a disappointing / not fully baked and poorly marketed/supported successor... will this set of favourable to such a long generation conditions repeat again for the next cycle? I do not think it will.

2018 would be best to keep momentum going, strong PS4 paving the way for a strong PS5, but I agree it might be a bit too early for a proper next generation jump.

Sony hit 4TB last year and MS 6TB this year, is Sony hit 8-10TB but with a decent CPU upgrade, bigger memory bus and (say) double the RAM - that would give a very nice upgrade to consistent 4K60, I don't quite understand why that's not possible in 2019. Throw in a few exclusives and let it play PS4 games and hey presto.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

Sony hit 4TB last year and MS 6TB this year, is Sony hit 8-10TB but with a decent CPU upgrade, bigger memory bus and (say) double the RAM - that would give a very nice upgrade to consistent 4K60, I don't quite understand why that's not possible in 2019. Throw in a few exclusives and let it play PS4 games and hey presto.

I still say 10-12TF, a much better CPU and at least 16GB RAM is a nice enough upgrade and deliverable sooner rather than (too) late.

Going slightly "lower" specs also has the advantage of being more likely to hit that $400 sweet spot and Sony can still then go on to do a PS5 Pro as/when EUV comes on stream.

 

[Shin]

Going slightly "lower" specs also has the advantage of being more likely to hit that $400 sweet spot and Sony can still then go on to do a PS5 Pro as/when EUV comes on stream.

More than EUV they would more likely go for 5nm or 3nm since it should be available by that time, EUV would be a cherry on top I guess.
I rather not wait 6 more years for a souped up PS5 though, don't like the refreshes at all.

 

[AmyS]

For shits 'n giggles.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

More than EUV they would more likely go for 5nm or 3nm since it should be available by that time, EUV would be a cherry on top I guess.
I rather not wait 6 more years for a souped up PS5 though, don't like the refreshes at all.

Well 28nm being the long lasting node (as 7nm is purported to be) went for 4.5 years i.e. late 2011-mid 2016 so.....I can never take the timelines from the foundries seriously looking back in the past. I'm not banking on 5nm until 2025 for anything other than mobile!

I'm not a massive fan of the mid-gen iteration to be honest but understand why Sony/MS have tried it. Who knows right now if they'll do it again?