I'd love to be a fly on the wall inside the Sony engineering offices at the moment.
It was really interesting to hear Albert Penello on the Xbox IGN podcast state that the Xbox One X actually began its initial conceptualization before the original Xbox One launched (pre-2013). There's such a huge lead time with new console engineering projects, so it'd be fantastic to get a hint of what Cerny and co have up their sleaves for the follow-up to the PS4.
So here is my crazy far out prediction:
2017: XB1 X
2019: PS5 | MS Machine
2020: XBNext
2022: PS5 Pro | MS Machine 1.5
2023: XBNext X
I think Microsoft was caught flat footed with the release of the Pro and poor reception of the base XB1. I don't think they intended for there to be an X release (although they should have) which is why they were a year behind. Now they are trying to play catch up. I don't think Microsoft wants to give Sony a head start, but because they just released the X, they can't release a console again in 2019. However...I think there is a huge loophole in that analysis.
I think Microsoft will release some other self contained computing product that will be fully compatible with Xbox family games. Imagine a Microsoft version of the Steam Machine except that it'd be based on Windows 10 and could play Windows and Xbox games. It'd be marketed and priced as a computer not a console even though it'd work in that role too. I can see Microsoft releasing such a computer/console in 2019 to try to steal the thunder from the PS5. Then Microsoft would follow up in 2020 with a true console release that had just enough improvements over the PS5 to overshadow it.
So here is my crazy far out prediction:
2017: XB1 X
2019: PS5 | MS Machine
2020: XBNext
2022: PS5 Pro | MS Machine 1.5
2023: XBNext X
Yes, this is what I'm most curious about.The thing Im curious about is
Lets say xbox next and PS5
The both launch at $499 and are very close in power, there roughly
12tflop gpu
20gb ram (4 for system)
8 core mobile zen
2tb HD
Now what if games made for that spec could run on 1x but at 1080p and low settings.If MS were to do this they would have a large advantage over sony, because by 2020 there will be about 10 million 1X owners who can play next gen software and a few years down the line if the 1X starts to gimp development they could stop support for the 1X.Its basically like the iOS model.
It would be interesting because if they did do this it would show what the 1X is capable of when not being held back by the og X1.
It's only a 43.9% increase of GPU power.
If MS were to do this they would have a large advantage over sony, because by 2020 there will be about 10 million 1X owners who can play next gen software and a few years down the line if the 1X starts to gimp development they could stop support for the 1X.Its basically like the iOS model.
Obviously PS5 is deep into development, while the next Xbox is also being designed. If PS5 releases a year before the next Xbox (not saying it will) Microsoft might have the advantage in process technology, opting for 7nm+ with EUV, whereas Sony might only have access to 7nm without EUV.
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't first gen 7nm an iteration of 10nm, while 7nm+ is 7nm ?
Too many consoles releasing, too close together IMO. Will confuse consumers, split development too much.
2013 - PS4, Xbox One (28nm process)
2016 - PS4 Pro (16nm FinFET)
2017 - Xbox One X (16nm FinFET)
2020 - PS5 - Xbox Next (7nm FinFET)
2023 - PS5 Pro - Xbox Next X (5nm GAFFET process with EUV)
The system has to wow people though. If they cant release something with an obvious boost beyond a slight resolution bump in 2019 it is a waste, 4k alone is unimpressive.I am going for 2019. 6 years after the PS4 and 3 years after the Pro. Sony need to keep people in their eco system. Every year that goes past the gap between the PS4 pro and the PC gets bigger. Delaying the ps5 only adds more risk.
Yes, this is what I'm most curious about.
I think MS has been very clever with what they put into XbX and how that will position them for XbX2.
i think it will be a while before we see a ps5 yet because of 2 main reasons
1) piracy is not rampant on the current gen, i think this has always been a factor together with improvement in tech for releasing the next generation.
ps3 was rushed out under powered after sony promising 1080p60,
and piracy on ps3 lead to a rushed out underpowered ps4 that still cant hit 1080p60
2) 4k TV uptake still not at the right level
The thing Im curious about is
Lets say xbox next and PS5
The both launch at $499 and are very close in power, there roughly
12tflop gpu
20gb ram (4 for system)
8 core mobile zen
2tb HD
Now what if games made for that spec could run on 1x but at 1080p and low settings.If MS were to do this they would have a large advantage over sony, because by 2020 there will be about 10 million 1X owners who can play next gen software and a few years down the line if the 1X starts to gimp development they could stop support for the 1X.Its basically like the iOS model.
It would be interesting because if they did do this it would show what the 1X is capable of when not being held back by the og X1.
Agreed. Plus, with all of the investment that MS has put into backwards compatibility and the fact that their hardware engineering seems to be back on form, the Xbox platform could be a serious contender next gen. It will be really interesting to see who launches first between MS and Sony.
Does anyone think that MS could catch Sony off guard and release the next Xbox before the PS5 is ready (in a similar fashion to the Xbox 360 & PS3 launch period)?
i think most paying a premium for a pimped out xbone would just throw down another $400-500 for a nextbox when the time comes.
X1 isn't a console for a hypothetical mid tier audience and there probably isn't enough time to get it at that pricing sweet spot (in which case it'd be competing with the vanilla xbone which would be presumably firesale cheap in that scenario)
If ps5 and xbox next launch in 2020 and 1X will still be recieving Microsoft exclusives,you can be sure a lot of people will be fine playing these newer games at lower IQ and settings, because
My bet is for November 2020 to March 2021.
It's in line with the past 6-7 year cycle, fits for the Christmas and Holiday periods and is just after the 2020 Summer Olympics in Japan.
Sony is already pushing for 8K as part of the Olympic campaign so aligning a PS5 launch with the same concept would be a no brainer, especially as another avenue to push 8K.
2018 has a number of high profile titles so teasing a successor would detract from them while 2019 doesn't have much known for now.
We'd see end cycle games like a new DMC maybe so it's safer to tease us for a 2020 launch and then E3 2020 for the real thing.
I think you're right on the time-frame for the PS5.
But...on a side-note...I'm a bit perplexed by the so-called "8K push"...not by your analysis, mind you...but rather, by industry giants like Sony thinking the market is going to be ready & have sufficient demand for yet another rez jump. I mean, market penetration for 4K sets isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Sure, more TVs sold over the next couple yrs may be 4K sets....but the vast majority of families still have 1080 or lower sets & don't appear to be upgrading. I don't see how 8K is gonna take off when 4K is barely gaining anything more than a large niche foothold in the market as it is.....
This is a good point. I'm highly skeptical of the benefits of 8K in the consumer space. On 100"+ displays in the future? Sure, maybe. 720p to 1080p was a pretty big leap, to the point where 720 content can look pretty ugly. 1080p to 4k was nice, but nowhere near as impressive as the leap to 1080p. I recently got a new TV, and almost every other feature about it (e.g. smart features, contrast, brightness, light uniformity) impressed me more than the resolution bump. I'd much rather games stayed at a 1080 or 4k target with solid frame rates and improved texture filtering, tessellation and other effects than going after a pointless wankfest like 8k.I was going to write a long post about standards ratification, industry adoption timelines, equipment changeovers and consumer adoption but in the end I'll just ask this about people's 8K PS5 musings:
What kind of graphics card to you foresee launching within the next 3 years that can push 33 million pixels at 30fps let alone 60 in a consumer -console- sized box?
PCWorld: Prices of SSDs and RAM will crash in 2019, Gartner predicts.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/319...dram-will-crash-in-2019-gartner-predicts.html
This could be good news for what could be crammed into next-gen consoles/
Good find. That'll be fantastic news if it ends up proving to be an accurate prediction. SSDs should be an essential addition to the next gen iterations of the Playstation and Xbox. Load times on the current gen consoles really are over the top.
Good find. That'll be fantastic news if it ends up proving to be an accurate prediction. SSDs should be an essential addition to the next gen iterations of the Playstation and Xbox. Load times on the current gen consoles really are over the top.
PCWorld: Prices of SSDs and RAM will crash in 2019, Gartner predicts.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/319...dram-will-crash-in-2019-gartner-predicts.html
This could be good news for what could be crammed into next-gen consoles/
Tbh, I find them significantly better than last generation (PS4 vs. PS3).
I've never thought load times on PS4 were particularly bad at all. In fact, the mere fact that games are now mandated to install to the HDD, means that we're now relying on superior HDD transfer speeds as opposed to horrible Bluray Drive streaming speeds.
Are load times on XB1 bad then? Because, otherwise I can't see where this complaint comes from.
Oh, the PS3 was terrible in that regard too. I still have nightmares over Gran Turismo 5's load times
If you play games regularly on a PC with an SSD, the return to current gen console load times becomes even more jarring. It has to be fixed next gen, especially with the onset of 4k textures and games over 100gb in size. Console manufacturer's can no longer rely purely on slow 5400rpm laptop hard drives IMHO.
2020 - PS5 - Xbox Next (7nm FinFET)
1.84 TFLOPS vs ~4.2 TFLOPS (if you only compare FP32 numbers, more if you think about FP16 optimisations) gives me little more than 128% improvement of GPU power and that is not the only thing that scaled up.
I'm not convinced MS can get away with such an expensive release every 3 or 4 years...they might get away with this as it's 4 years since XBO but in 3 years to release 'next gen' I think could be stretching it.
I was going to write a long post about standards ratification, industry adoption timelines, equipment changeovers and consumer adoption but in the end I'll just ask this about people's 8K PS5 musings:
What kind of graphics card to you foresee launching within the next 3 years that can push 33 million pixels at 30fps let alone 60 in a consumer -console- sized box?
I think he was saying XBOX GPU is ~43% more than Pro (I assume anyway!)
I'm not convinced MS can get away with such an expensive release every 3 or 4 years...they might get away with this as it's 4 years since XBO but in 3 years to release 'next gen' I think could be stretching it.
Microsoft kicked the tires of the kinds of HBM modules AMD pioneered in GPUs in 2015 and Nvidia uses now on Volta. But for a consumer product HBM2 is too expensive and inflexible its memory bandwidth is not as granular, and we would be locked into [an HBM] module, Sell said.
Its too early to tell what the next generation trade-offs will look like, but both a Jedec GDDR6 and an HBM3 are in the works. A major cost issue for HBM is a lack of test coverage and thus relatively low yields, he said.
Maybe we could see something like this in the new consoles:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...sors-with-integrated-amd-graphics-and-memory/
Not exactly because PS4 Pro has features from Vega like RPM that allow devs to get more out of the GPU by moving some workloads over to fp16.
It's only a 43.9% increase of GPU power. If you see more comparisons between the standard PS4 version to the PS4 Pro, there are no significant advantages on the PS4 Pro but just additional HDR features.
I consider the PS4 Pro as a minor upgrade of the PS4.
I don't think PS4 is going away soon, and Sony's well grounded with their decision in their releasing games on the same family tree policy.
Originally Posted by Panajev2001a
PS4 Pro is not as fast as Xbox One X, but it is over 2x as fast GPU wise and has a host of quite inmportant enhancements over it (acceleration of checkerboarded rendering and 2x the processing speed of FP16 data) that further enhance that speed. In all intents and purposes it is a big jump over PS4, but like Xbox One X and Xbox One the CPU improvements is not nearly enough for a new generation.
I think he was saying XBOX GPU is ~43% more than Pro (I assume anyway!)
It's only a 43.9% increase of GPU power. If you see more comparisons between the standard PS4 version to the PS4 Pro [...]
The longer quote was:
...and we were taking about if PS4 Pro was a good jump over PS4 or not I think.
Maybe we could see something like this in the new consoles:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...sors-with-integrated-amd-graphics-and-memory/
The system has to wow people though. If they cant release something with an obvious boost beyond a slight resolution bump in 2019 it is a waste, 4k alone is unimpressive.
Interestingly enough Im hearing that the next Sony machine will still be able to play all PS4 games. So his PS4 pro to become default PS4 isnt completely off. It wont play PS5 games though.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall inside the Sony engineering offices at the moment.
It was really interesting to hear Albert Penello on the Xbox IGN podcast state that the Xbox One X actually began its initial conceptualization before the original Xbox One launched (pre-2013). There's such a huge lead time with new console engineering projects, so it'd be fantastic to get a hint of what Cerny and co have up their sleaves for the follow-up to the PS4.
Interestingly enough Im hearing that the next Sony machine will still be able to play all PS4 games. So his PS4 pro to become default PS4 isnt completely off. It wont play PS5 games though.