I see little reason for developers to bother with XBLA/PSN anymore.
- Need a publisher most of the time to even get considered
- Need to get greenlit by the platform manager first. Since they release only like one or two games per week that's ~100 games a year max.
- Pay for ESRB rating
- Deal with strict certification
- Deal with size restrictions (though much less of a problem now)
- Have the platform holders dictate pricing of your game AND downloadable content
- Get charged $40k just for supporting your game with a patch
Then you have no idea when your game will actually be released. Unless it's one of the lucky four "Summer of Arcade" or "PSN PLAY" style promotions, the game gets pretty much no advertising at all. Seems like a lot of shitty extra hoops to jump through and unnecessary costs just to get your game on the service.
Compare that to Apple who pimps developers apps/games on their Appstore
Twitter account (785k followers),
Facebook (4m+ fans), weekly "What's new on iTunes" email newsletters,
television commercials, preloads them onto iOS devices in their retail stores, etc.