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[guek]

My perspective on this generation:

Nintendo - repackaged hardware, "innovative controls", mitigated development risk, leverage on mascot based exclusive franchises

Result: Massive early sales and public hype, early eol for the console (dwindling sales of the wii, heavily decreased growth)

MS - rushed console, costly early issues, well supported online functionality, paid timed exclusivity

Result: seemingly most stable current generation but not without (avoidable) major expenses

The Wii has been on the market for about 6 years and was overwhelmingly dominant for 5 of them.

People need to get it in their heads that the Wii didn't start fading because of a lack of power. It never had the power to attract 3rd parties for 5 of those 6 years it was successful. The Wii has faded in the past year solely because nintendo has stopped providing major support for the console.

Consider what perception of the Wii had been like had the Wii U launched in mid 2011 - 5 years is slightly early for a new console generation but not considerably so. No one would be talking about how the wii was supposedly front loaded.


As for the 360, it has always been relatively stable but it did not start outpacing the Wii until kinect launched. Its recent success has more to do with casuals adopting the platform due to kinect than how advanced the hardware was back in 2005.

 

[Castor Krieg]

People need to get it in their heads that the Wii didn't start fading because of a lack of power. It never had the power to attract 3rd parties for 5 of those 6 years it was successful. The Wii has faded in the past year solely because nintendo has stopped providing major support for the console.

Which was most likely because of switching development to WiiU. This Christmas Nintendo is going to make a killing.

 

[Razgreez]

The Wii has been on the market for about 6 years and was overwhelmingly dominant for 5 of them.

People need to get it in their heads that the Wii didn't start fading because of a lack of power. It never had the power to attract 3rd parties for 5 of those 6 years it was successful. The Wii has faded in the past year solely because nintendo has stopped providing major support for the console.


As for the 360, it has always been relatively stable but it did not start outpacing the Wii until kinect launched. Its recent success has more to do with casuals adopting the platform due to kinect than how advanced the hardware was back in 2005.

A console and should not rely on support from it's 1st party developers, except in its initial years.. That's just bad business. The idea is to garner a userbase so significant that developers/publishers cannot ignore it and therefore are enticed/forced to develop and publish games for it. You attract consumers with your first party titles. And this userbase then attracts publishers. Why is the wii struggling? It does not have the power to satisfy the developers/publishers, not the consumers.

Why did the PS2 still have games published for it so long into it's lifecycle? Ridiculous amount of 3rd party support.

As for kinect, it's another case of giving the consumer what they think they want. In fact i'd say it's even more a case of sony handing microsoft the successful Eyetoy ball and letting them run with it

 

[guek]

A console and should not rely on support from it's 1st party developers, except in its initial years.. That's just bad business. The idea is to garner a userbase so significant that developers/publishers cannot ignore it and therefore are enticed/forced to develop and publish games for it. You attract consumers with your first party titles. And this userbase then attracts publishers. Why is the wii struggling? It does not have the power to satisfy the developers/publishers, not the consumers.

As for kinect, it's another case of giving the consumer what they think they want.

This is how you want things to be, not how they actually are. How is it bad business? Like I said, if the Wii's successor launched last year, no one would have been calling the Wii "bad business." For 5/6 years, it was fantastic, phenomenal, outstanding business. I agree that it would be healthier to foster a platform on which 3rd parties can thrive, but the Wii made it abundantly clear that it's not completely necessary. I already said it but I'll say it again because people have such resistance to this idea.

Nintendo was NOT successful this gen because of 3rd parties. Their decline had NOTHING to do with 3rd party output, even if it is true that 3rd party support might have helped alleviate the drop in sales. 3rd parties are not associated with the decline because they had nothing to do with the wii's success. The wii isn't struggling because of a lack of power. That idea is asinine. The wii sold 8.75 million units in the last quarter of 2010 vs. 6.3 million 360s. That was a little over a year ago. The only measurable difference between 2010 and 2011 is the output in software by Nintendo. And at the end of the day, it doesn't matter whether software comes from a 1st or 3rd party, software is what sells consoles.

 

[Pinzer]

I think the key to Nintendo's success has been both their first-party titles and their price. They launched Wii at $249. Especially during a global economic recession that was a great strategy. However that was when both the 360 had been out a year (at $399) and Sony was launching PS3 at $599. Now WiiU is launching first against an old generation that is continually getting price cuts. If the WiiU is similarly powered to PS360 and its only distinguishing factor is a tablet controller then I think we will see lower sales until their competition becomes more expensive.

 

[JonathanPower]

They don't have a choice in the matter which is what everybody is saying.The Wii U is coming out this year. Microsoft cannot afford to give Nintendo an entire year by itself just as Sony cannot afford to give Microsoft that amount of time. Microsoft has made their killing recently with Kinect. There isn't any reason they have to stop supporting the 360 just because the next Xbox is coming out. Sony supported the Playstation 2 for quite some time after PS3 arrived. Again, Microsoft is going up against Nintendo whether you choose to admit it or not.

LoL@the Wii U is coming and it's gonna be the end of everything for MS and Sony!!!

Sorry but i just can't see this happening...even if the Wii U will have better graphic it's not gonna be a huge step from the xbox360/PS3, and i don't think all the big developers will want to move their AAA productions from the xbox360 exclusively to the Wii U considering that they would just make 100 times more money selling games on the 60+ million xbox360 userbase...if you want to make Microsoft worry you need to have Bioware making Mass Effect 4 exclusive for the Wii U, you need Epic making Gear of Wars 4 exclusive for the Wii U, you need ACTIVISION making Call of duty next only for the Wii U and so on...

 

[guek]

LoL@the Wii U is coming and it's gonna be the end of everything for MS and Sony!!!

Sorry but i just can't see this happen...even if the Wii U will have better graphic it's not gonna be a huge step from the xbox360/PS3, and i don't think all the big developers will want to move their AAA productions from the xbox360 exclusively to the Wii U considering that they would just make 100 times more money selling games on the 60+ million xbox360 userbase...if you want to make Microsft worry you need to have Bioware making Mass Effect 4 exclusive for the Wii U, you need Epic making Gear of Wars 4 exclusive for the Wii U, you need ACTIVISION making Call of duty next only for the Wii U and so on...

It's not about graphics. It's about software. You're right that nintendo isn't going break the bank just by getting software that's on competing platforms. However, if they have a Wii Sports or Kinect on their hands that brings in the masses, MS and Sony definitely have reason to worry. If the Wii U has the mindshare when MS and Sony's successor's do launch, it could completely fuck them over. But indeed, that is a big IF.

 

[The Game]

I am more worried how transition from 360 to 720 would turn out then ps3 to ps4,with so many good games coming out this year for 360 and momentum that is having over ps3 now and if this continues over at 2013 i wouldn't raise hope at seeing next gen console from MS, this also works great for Sony as they can get their extra time they need and launch roughly in the 3 months of each other.

 

[JonathanPower]

It's not about graphics. It's about software. You're right that nintendo isn't going break the bank just by getting software that's on competing platforms. However, if they have a Wii Sports or Kinect on their hands that brings in the masses, MS and Sony definitely have reason to worry. If the Wii U has the mindshare when MS and Sony's successor's do launch, it could completely fuck them over. But indeed, that is a big IF.

Nintendo is not about graphic while MS and Sony for the most part are all about graphic...they have different targets this is why i don't think they are direct competitors.

 

[Kai Dracon]

PS3 just takes really long strides.

 

[Combichristoffersen]

PS3 just takes really long strides.

Nothing's gonna break its stride

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Nintendo is not about graphic while MS and Sony for the most part are all about graphic...they have different targets this is why i don't think they are direct competitors.

If Sony shoots for the stars in hardware and waits until 2014 to release, do you think it's likely that anyone will make exclusive games that take advantage of all that power? And by "anyone", I don't mean devs subsidized by or owned by Sony. The reality of modern software development costs makes a repeat of the PS2 increasingly unlikely.

Further, how do you envision PS3 sales in Japan and the US in 2013? Especially with DQ X coming to Wii U near launch, and MS presumably releasing an upgrade to both Kinect and LIVE in the next 18 months?

Does Sony look at this landscape and just go "meh" like some of the posters here? I don't think they can afford to.

 

[JonathanPower]

If Sony shoots for the stars in hardware and waits until 2014 to release, do you think it's likely that anyone will make exclusive games that take advantage of all that power? And by "anyone", I don't mean devs subsidized by or owned by Sony. The reality of modern software development costs makes a repeat of the PS2 increasingly unlikely.

Further, how do you envision PS3 sales in Japan and the US in 2013? Especially with DQ X coming to Wii U near launch, and MS presumably releasing an upgrade to both Kinect and LIVE in the next 18 months?

Does Sony look at this landscape and just go "meh" like some of the posters here? I don't think they can afford to.

Now i tell you what if MS and Sony wait untill 2015 and then release a console with CG like quality visuals, 8 gig of superspeed ram and all the best we can imagine ? For me a jump to the next gen must be something really revolutionary in terms of visual to make it really worth.

 

[guek]

Now i tell you what if MS and Sony wait untill 2015 and then release a console with CG like quality visuals, 8 gig of superspeed ram and all the best we can imagine ? For me a jump to the next gen must be something really revolutionary in terms of visuals to make it really worth.

What you want =/= what the market wants

People make this claim all the time. "Such and such would be a great move by so and so company...because that's what I would want."

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Now i tell you what if MS and Sony wait untill 2015 and then release a console with CG like quality visuals, 8 gig of superspeed ram and all the best we can imagine ? For me a jump to the next gen must be something really revolutionary in terms of visual to make it really worth.

The current consoles wont last that long. People wont continue buying games and hardware for 9-10 year old tech. Its not happening. Microsoft is t going to risk losing the living room to Apple, Nintendo, or some other company. And believe that Apple will have something for home gaming within the next two years. But hey, if you dont want to buy a new console until 2015 have at it.

 

[TGO]

May I just point out that no one has ever succeeded in launching first
Mega Drive was toppled by the SNES
Saturn by the Playstation
Dreamcast by Playstation 2
and 360 by the Wii

I think second to launch is better

 

[JonathanPower]

What you want =/= what the market wants

People make this claim all the time. "Such and such would be a great move by so and so company...because that's what I would want."

However regardless of what i want this is the situation we have now, with Sony that does not want to launch a PS4 anytime soon and with MS making a lot of money on the xbox360 with a huge userbase and no need to worry about the PS4...

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

However regardless of what i want this is the situation we have now, with Sony that does not want to launch a PS4 anytime soon and with MS making a lot of money on the xbox360 with a huge userbase and no need to worry about the PS4...

It doesn't matter what Micro and Sony want. Thats the point. It matters what the consumer wants.

 

[guek]

However regardless of what i want this is the situation we have now, with Sony that does not want to launch a PS4 anytime soon and with MS making a lot of money on the xbox360 with a huge userbase and no need to worry about the PS4...

There's definitely more than one answer though. It's going to be easy to look at things in hindsight and say some companies made the correct decisions and others chose poorly.

MS could extend this gen longer, riding off the 360's current success and wait for better hardware in the next xbox. Or they could leverage the mindshare they have right now surrounding kinect, launch in early 2013, and attempt to ensure they start out next gen with as much momentum as possible. Both options could lead to success and both could be poorly executed catastrophic failures.

Sony could do something similar by riding out the PS3 for as long as possible to recoup as much money as they possibly can. Or they could jump the gun and reset everything with an earlier than expected PS4 in hopes of re-establishing themselves as a market leader. Both tactics have merit and both have risks.

 

[JonathanPower]

The current consoles wont last that long. People wont continue buying games and hardware for 9-10 year old tech. Its not happening. Microsoft is t going to risk losing the living room to Apple, Nintendo, or some other company. And believe that Apple will have something for home gaming within the next two years. But hey, if you dont want to buy a new console until 2015 have at it.

Well this is hard to beleave it took 11 years for MS to get were it is now, so even if MS and Sony would wait untill 2015 no one would take their place easly, they would just make a lot more money with their current systems...

What I am sure of is that Sony would surely love to not be forced to launch a new console before 2015...

 

[JonathanPower]

It doesn't matter what Micro and Sony want. Thats the point. It matters what the consumer wants.

Well not really they will always do what is more convenient for them making you beleave that this is what you want..

 

[onipex]

May I just point out that no one has ever succeeded in launching first
Mega Drive was toppled by the SNES
Saturn by the Playstation
Dreamcast by Playstation 2
and 360 by the Wii

I think second to launch is better

I wouldn't count Mega Drive and the other consoles listed were rushed.

 

[iamshadowlark]

However regardless of what i want this is the situation we have now, with Sony that does not want to launch a PS4 anytime soon and with MS making a lot of money on the xbox360 with a huge userbase and no need to worry about the PS4...

Im pretty sure its the opposite.


Sony would surely jump at the chance to get on a more even playing field that a new generation brings. Launching a better, more cost-efficient console and possibly getting some of that market-share back has to be a seducing proposition to them.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

May I just point out that no one has ever succeeded in launching first
Mega Drive was toppled by the SNES
Saturn by the Playstation
Dreamcast by Playstation 2
and 360 by the Wii

I think second to launch is better

Counterpoint,

Nintendo lost some 3rd party support to Sega, a trend that affected their business for the next decade
The N64 never caught the PSOne (or the Saturn in Japan)
The GCN and Xbox were basically finished by E3 2002 despite having clearly superior hw to the PS2
The PS3 in 6 years has never caught up to the 360
The Wii never gained the software support that MS grabbed at the start of the generation

Really, all your examples showed is that it's easy to beat Sega, a company that peaked in popularity in 1992.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Really, all your examples showed is that it's easy to beat Sega, a company that peaked in popularity in 1992.

Ouch.

 

[mrklaw]

Im pretty sure its the opposite.


Sony would surely jump at the chance to get on a more even playing field that a new generation brings. Launching a better, more cost-efficient console and possibly getting some of that market-share back has to be a seducing proposition to them.

I agree. I'm sure it'll be painful to cut short the PS3 (relatively speaking), but starting even with MS is a better shot than they have now.

 

[Byakuya769]

It doesn't matter what Micro and Sony want. Thats the point. It matters what the consumer wants.

Exactly. And right now sequelitis has killed interest in any games for me. I think the systems are tapped out, and each year is just a procession of the latest hyped shooter and/or western rpg. They all play the same to me, and look only marginally better than prior iterations.

It's time for the next gen.

 

[plufim]

Next Gen isn't going to cure sequelitis.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Im pretty sure its the opposite.


Sony would surely jump at the chance to get on a more even playing field that a new generation brings. Launching a better, more cost-efficient console and possibly getting some of that market-share back has to be a seducing proposition to them.

Exactly. Micro and Sony both understand what hype and potential can do to attract more dollars out of consumers. We are people who want the newest thing. If you can market correctly then you're able to bring a new product annually. Now the gaming industry is a bit differrent but its all about marketing.

Sony would love to reclaim their title as having THE system to have. The mistoque and demand helps drive more demand. Theyre not getting that from the PS3. The PS4 if done right has a chance of doing it.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Next Gen isn't going to cure sequelitis.

No but we will get NEW sequelittus. New IPs. New projects. New potential.

 

[Byakuya769]

Next Gen isn't going to cure sequelitis.

You're right, but at least there would be a jump in technical capabilities, and hopefully a push to do more in terms of gameplay options.

 

[IrishNinja]

Nintendo is not about graphic while MS and Sony for the most part are all about graphic...they have different targets this is why i don't think they are direct competitors.

but last gen sony wasnt abotu the graphic either and it was their best gen ever
also nintendo was about the graphic for every gen but this one, the one they completely won
you might want to rethink your targets

Now i tell you what if MS and Sony wait untill 2015 and then release a console with CG like quality visuals, 8 gig of superspeed ram and all the best we can imagine ? For me a jump to the next gen must be something really revolutionary in terms of visual to make it really worth.

...i would not hold my breath for 2015 or 8 gigs of anything except hard drive space

Really, all your examples showed is that it's easy to beat Sega, a company that peaked in popularity in 1992.

..you ain't gotta just say it like that, man.

No but we will get NEW sequelittus. New IPs. New projects. New potential.

exactly.

 

[JonathanPower]

Im pretty sure its the opposite.


Sony would surely jump at the chance to get on a more even playing field that a new generation brings. Launching a better, more cost-efficient console and possibly getting some of that market-share back has to be a seducing proposition to them.

What i don't think it's so much seducing for them is the huge amout of money and effort it takes to create and advertise a new console, the fact that every new console initially is always sold at a loss like PS3 at the beginning, plus the risk of a disaster in the case the console does not sell well, and all of this without even having the time to cover the loss obtained from the previous console....it really does not seem like a great deal for Sony to me.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

If they could do that for free maybe but what i don't think it's so much seducing for them is the huge amout of money and effort it takes to create and advertise a new console, with the risk of a disaster in the case the console does not sell well, and without having the time to cover the loss of the previous console.

Nobody enjoys spending money but in this business you have to spend money to make money. Sony needs to start over to have a shot of reclaiming their glory of the PS1 & PS2 gens. Also you're not getting consoles with 8 gb of ram in 2015.

 

[H_Prestige]

Nobody enjoys spending money but in this business you have to spend money to make money. Sony needs to start over to have a shot of reclaiming their glory of the PS1 & PS2 gens. Also you're not getting consoles with 8 gb of ram in 2015.

Yeah, I don't understand the argument that Sony should hold off the ps4 because it costs money. It's going to cost money regardless. What should they do, not make one at all?

 

[Monumental]

Nobody enjoys spending money but in this business you have to spend money to make money.

Tell that to Nintendo.

 

[guek]

Tell that to Nintendo.

wtf do you think their current 3DS strategy is

 

[H_Prestige]

Tell that to Nintendo.

Nintendo spends a lot of money. They just make sure to gain it all back.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Tell that to Nintendo.

Ever hear of R&D and advertising? Also realize that skimping on the tech hurt them with 3rd parties because 3rd parties couldnt develop their games for the Wii in combination with PS3/360. They either didnt bring the the games to Wii or did a budget hatchet job.

 

[JonathanPower]

but last gen sony wasnt abotu the graphic either and it was their best gen ever
also nintendo was about the graphic for every gen but this one, the one they completely won
you might want to rethink your targets

Well it does not make too much sense to say that Nintendo completely won because it all depends on what kind of gamer you are...if you love FPS, Racing games, Action games, Fantasy games and so on you have no choice but to buy a PS3 or an xbox360, if you for example want to play awesome games like Skyrim you can't do that on a Wii so it's not like Nintendo was able to make a console that was able to be a substitute for the xbox360 or the PS3, it is more like they were able to offer something entirely different but not directly in competition with Sony and Microsoft.

 

[JonathanPower]

Nobody enjoys spending money but in this business you have to spend money to make money. Sony needs to start over to have a shot of reclaiming their glory of the PS1 & PS2 gens. Also you're not getting consoles with 8 gb of ram in 2015.

Then you have to explain this to Sony because it is Sony that made it clear they don't want to release a PS4 anytime soon, also the 8 gig ram was just an example it does not matter if it's gonna be 2 or 4 gig of ram it was just to say that obviously the hw would be much more powerful with a 2015 launch.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Well it does not make too much sense to say that Nintendo completely won because it all depends on what kind of gamer you are...if you love FPS, Racing games, Action games, Fantasy games and so on you have no choice but to buy a PS3 or an xbox360, if you for example want to play awesome games like Skyrim you can't do that on a Wii so it not like Nintendo was able to make a console that won over the xbox360 or the PS3 it is more like they were able to offer something entirely different but not direclty in competitio with Sony and Microsoft.

Despite what Nintendo said they were very much competing for the same dollar that the other two were and Nintendo won. Last gen Sony won despite having the weakest hardware. The gen before that Sony won with the PS1 despite not being as powerful as the N64. Oh and the DS won over the PSP.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Then you have to explain this to Sony because it is Sony that made it clear they don't want to release a PS4 anytime soon.

Lol and you take the comments seriously? Really? I bet you believed Nintendo when it said they were focusing on Wii and the DS and then boom, 3DS and Wii U revealed. Come on man.

 

[DarkChild]

Now i tell you what if MS and Sony wait untill 2015 and then release a console with CG like quality visuals, 8 gig of superspeed ram and all the best we can imagine ? For me a jump to the next gen must be something really revolutionary in terms of visual to make it really worth.

Nintendo will do the same two years later while having one "free" generation in between. Really, it makes no sense not to release all 3 consoles next year...

 

[JJConrad]

May I just point out that no one has ever succeeded in launching first
Mega Drive was toppled by the SNES
Saturn by the Playstation
Dreamcast by Playstation 2
and 360 by the Wii

I think second to launch is better

Don't know how to break this to you, but... the PS3 launched second. It beat the Wii to market in Japan by 3 weeks and the US by 2 days... It did launch third across Europe, but that's where the system has remained the most competitive.

A better rule of thumb would be:

"I think not being Sega is better."

 

[Byakuya769]

Lol and you take the comments seriously? Really? I bet you believed Nintendo when it said they were focusing on Wii and the DS and then boom, 3DS and Wii U revealed. Come on man.

Sorry, need Tretton to say, "Do not buy PS3s, I repeat, do not buy PS3s. We have a new system coming soon!" so I know it's real.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Sorry, need Tretton to say, "Do not buy PS3s, I repeat, do not buy PS3s. We have a new system coming soon!" so I know it's real.

Exactly. Common sense is apparently not common.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Tell that to Nintendo.

Nintendo's products are all magicked out of thin air.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Is the mainstream consumer actually looking for a new iteration of hardware yet?

I don't think console "generations" are as delineated as they used to be because of the diminishing returns of new hardware - there isn't really any hook to drive a transition, imo.

From the SNES -> PS1, the difference was obvious in the transition to 3D graphics. Visually the transition from PS1 -> PS2/XBOX was also pretty clear. The Wii introduced a new way to play rather than a graphical shift, while the PS3 and 360 had a visible generational shift, and coincided with the adoption of HD TV.

In the ordinary consumer's eye, I imagine the PS3 and 360 probably are essentially an upgrade from the Wii visually; ergo imo the Wii U will largely be competing for those consumers, rather than a slew of people looking to upgrade from the PS3 and 360. Not only that they're trying to introduce a new control scheme as well.

Would increased power be enough to drive consumer adoption of a PS4 or 360?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Counterpoint,

Nintendo lost some 3rd party support to Sega, a trend that affected their business for the next decade
The N64 never caught the PSOne (or the Saturn in Japan)
The GCN and Xbox were basically finished by E3 2002 despite having clearly superior hw to the PS2
The PS3 in 6 years has never caught up to the 360
The Wii never gained the software support that MS grabbed at the start of the generation

Really, all your examples showed is that it's easy to beat Sega, a company that peaked in popularity in 1992.

I loved Sega, but this was some funny shit.