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Tretton: PS4 Announcement This Year Would Be Distracting, PS3 Just Hitting Its Stride

Perhaps you should focus the same judgement and perspective on Microsoft as well. Microsoft's game division is still on the minus side due to the 3.7$ billion loss on the 1st XBox, and the 1.3$ billion loss for the RRoD fiasco. If you take the 1st Xbox into the equation, as you should, they've lost more than they've earned.
lol, why should I?
At which point did we go from discussing THIS generation, to ALL generations?
Do you want me to talk about how Microsoft had major financial missteps with the original Xbox? Sure they did...and Sony did great in the PS1 and PS2 generation. But how's that in anyway relevant to what I was saying?

We're talking about the missteps of Sony in THIS generation.
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
What if MS has no intention to launch a next xbox in 2013 ? No one force Microsoft to launch a new console in 2013 when they are making so much money with the xbox360, you talk like they are forced to launch a new console just because they have to please you, but you forget that those companies want to make money and both MS and Sony want this generation to last as longer as possible, and a possible Wii U launch really is not going to change anything in this regard.

Holiday 2013 is 18 months away this generation is running out of steam. MS needs to strike while things are going well. If they wait 30 more months for holiday 2014 they will have lost any momentum they have right now. Lets not forget they don't quit selling current generation when the new one launches. Sales of this generation are slowly tapering off and it time to move on. Also if the Wii U is a major hit and they don't have a response for 2 years they will have basically given N the next generation.
 

Theonik

Member
Has this been posted in this thread yet? It's funny because it's a 2008 comic yet it is still relevant:
iDxFi.jpg
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
Sony has taken a financial beating..is it really surprising that they want to delay this generation to make up for losses?

It beats being to late to the market and thowing away another generation. Because of pricing the PS3 was basically 2 years behind the 360. You think they want a repeat of the last generation? Launching in 2014 may save them some money but it basically thows the PS4 under the bus. If they launch in 2013 against MS head to head they have a chance to steal back market share in NA. You really think the PS3 has another 30 months left in?
 

yurinka

Member
Are you forgetting about the Wii?
Check recent Wii numbers in, let's say, Japan.
Sony has taken a financial beating..is it really surprising that they want to delay this generation to make up for losses?
Right now PS3 has healty sales, and still is priced over $200. They are also busy releasing a handheld.
It's too early, it wouldn't make too much sense to release it before late 2013 / early 2014.
Wii U is a HD gen console, will compete vs 360/PS3 more than vs PS3/X720.
 
All industry chatter and trends point towards an Xbox successor being launched in the very near future. And if you look at recent NPD results - the market needs a new platform.

Well, considering the global financial crisis this is would be one of the worst moment in history to throw away a 60+ million userbase and start all over again with a next xbox console...especially because they are actually making a lot of money with the xbox360 and Sony is the last one who wants to launch a new console in the near future...regardless of all the speculations those kind of decisions are taken by the economists in a company.
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
Well, considering the global financial crisis this is would be one of the worst moment in history to throw away a 60+ million userbase and start all over again with a next xbox console...especially because they are actually making a lot of money with the xbox360 and Sony is the last one who wants to launch a new console in the near future...regardless of all the speculations those kind of decisions are taken by the economists in a company.

You think they just stop selling old machines and supporting it the second a new generation starts? We are not talking about launching next week but 18 months from now. That gives the current generation atleast 2-3 more full holiday releases. You are looking at 2015 before support fully switches to the new generation or 3 freaking years from now.
 
Holiday 2013 is 18 months away this generation is running out of steam. MS needs to strike while things are going well. If they wait 30 more months for holiday 2014 they will have lost any momentum they have right now. Lets not forget they don't quit selling current generation when the new one launches. Sales of this generation are slowly tapering off and it time to move on. Also if the Wii U is a major hit and they don't have a response for 2 years they will have basically given N the next generation.

Lets say that MS and Sony will make a secret agreement for not launching a new console until 2016...do you really think that the most part of the casual gamers will really care about this ? I don't think so...only the hardcore gamers want a new console to be released every year...
 
You think they just stop selling old machines and supporting it the second a new generation starts? We are not talking about launching next week but 18 months from now. That gives the current generation atleast 2-3 more full holiday releases. You are looking at 2015 before support fully switches to the new generation or 3 freaking years from now.

Well, it just does not make any sense from an economic point of view to launch a new console in 2013, not when they have no competitors to fight...well we will see only time will tell ;)
 
Right now PS3 has healty sales, and still is priced over $200. They are also busy releasing a handheld.
It's too early, it wouldn't make too much sense to release it before late 2013 / early 2014.
Wii U is a HD gen console, will compete vs 360/PS3 more than vs PS3/X720.

Just as the Wii competed with the Xbox and PS2? You guys are loving sony to death. If PS4 comes out too far behind the others, it's a wash. I don't believe sony has it in its DNA to release an input or style of gameplay that such a game-changer that they can make up for lost ground. I say anymore than a 6 month lag, and PS4 will do worst than the PS3. And if they allow a holiday season to pass by with the PS4 being the lone console missing, they're done.
 

quest

Not Banned from OT
Well, it just does not make any sense from an economic point of view to launch a new console in 2013, not when they have no competitors to fight...well will see only time will tell ;)

Considering that sales of the current generation have slowed greatly it makes sense to launch a new generation. Last NPD was terrible for the big 3 Total sales (for hardware + software + accessories) dropped 34% year over year. That will only continue to get worse as time goes on. Sales for the PS3/Wii were so bad they did not release any public figures this last month. They already have stretched this generation 2 years past the norm there is no way to extend it another 2 years of healthy sales.
 

pestul

Member
I really don't see MS or Sony having a nextgen console out before fall 2013 in any region. It isn't the focus of either company right now.
 
Considering that sales of the current generation have slowed greatly it makes sense to launch a new generation. Last NPD was terrible for the big 3 Total sales (for hardware + software + accessories) dropped 34% year over year. That will only continue to get worse as time goes on. Sales for the PS3/Wii were so bad they did not release any public figures this last month. They already have stretched this generation 2 years past the norm there is no way to extend it another 2 years of healthy sales.

I don't think that Bioware is very concerned about this, because they know for sure that sales of Mass Effect 3 on xbox360 will be great and they know for sure that they are going to make a lot of money with it...
 
What if MS has no intention to launch a next xbox in 2013 ? No one force Microsoft to launch a new console in 2013 when they are making so much money with the xbox360, you talk like they are forced to launch a new console just because they have to please you, but you forget that those companies want to make money and both MS and Sony want this generation to last as longer as possible, and a possible Wii U launch really is not going to change anything in this regard.

No. Theyre forced to because the Wii U is arriving this year and both hardware and software sold have dipped down to 2004 levels, i.e. the year before the 360 arrived.
 
Well, considering the global financial crisis this is would be one of the worst moment in history to throw away a 60+ million userbase and start all over again with a next xbox console...especially because they are actually making a lot of money with the xbox360 and Sony is the last one who wants to launch a new console in the near future...regardless of all the speculations those kind of decisions are taken by the economists in a company.

Sorry but you're incorrect. The US economy is rebounding and will be even stronger in 2013. Unemployment is down. Smart phones and tablets selling at an all tine high. The software and hardware is down because there is nothing new. People want something new. Publishers want something new. Developers want something new. Just because you may not be ready for something new doesn't mean it isnt vital to start over for Microsoft and therefore Sony as well.

In a year from now software will be even worse off as will hardware. They also cant afford to give the Wii U more than 6 months head start.
 
I don't think that Bioware is very concerned about this, because they know for sure that sales of Mass Effect 3 on xbox360 will be great and they know for sure that they are going to make a lot of money with it...

And? That is one company. The industry as a whole needs a shot in the arm and that is a new set of consoles.
 
This year will be the last year where 360 and PS3 will be relevant from a sales and software perspective. And this is with the caveat that both consoles will see a price drop before the fall. Most of the big franchises are wrapping up (at least in their current gen form) by March '13 at the latest. Gears is done. Uncharted is done. Resident Evil is done. Halo is done. Assassin's Creed is done. Mario is done. Zelda is done. Bioshock is done. GTA is right around the corner. Call of Duty is finally peaked. The sports titles have squeezed out every bit of meaningful power and peripheral use that these consoles have offered.

The tech guys have already begun heavily investing in next-gen engines.

Anyone planning big releases on either console for fall 2013 or beyond is likely to get their feelings hurt. Giving Nintendo two Christmas' with zero competition just isn't a realistic move in this marketplace, especially since (given the gap in hardware power) second-gen Wii U titles will look dramatically better than anything MS and Sony have on shelves.

Despite their corporate posturing, MS and Sony will both have new consoles out by fall of 2013.
 
Sorry but you're incorrect. The US economy is rebounding and will be even stronger in 2013. Unemployment is down. Smart phones and tablets selling at an all tine high. The software and hardware is down because there is nothing new. People want something new. Publishers want something new. Developers want something new. Just because you may not be ready for something new doesn't mean it isnt vital to start over for Microsoft and therefore Sony as well.

In a year from now software will be even worse off as will hardware. They also cant afford to give the Wii U more than 6 months head start.

Well I see the financial crisis getting worse and worse as the time goes on especially in Europe...anyway, I am glad that you are so firmly convinced to know the future, as for myself I will be glad to wait and see what really happens ;)
 
Sorry but you're incorrect. The US economy is rebounding and will be even stronger in 2013. Unemployment is down. Smart phones and tablets selling at an all tine high. The software and hardware is down because there is nothing new. People want something new. Publishers want something new. Developers want something new. Just because you may not be ready for something new doesn't mean it isnt vital to start over for Microsoft and therefore Sony as well.

In a year from now software will be even worse off as will hardware. They also cant afford to give the Wii U more than 6 months head start.

HD software sold better in 2011 than 2010. Using one month of sales, in which zero new games were released, is seriously flawed analysis.
 
Well I see the financial crisis getting worse and worse as the time goes on especially in Europe...anyway, I am glad that you are so firmly convinced to know the future, as for myself I will be glad to wait and see what really happens ;)

Umm its called common sense amd looking at previous generations. When you see such a drop off of software its not a coincidence. Nintendo is releasing its next gen console this year. Developers are more and more talking about getting ready for next gen. Publishers are talking about needing something new. More and more rumours of what the next generation of Xbox and Playstation are flowing.

If you honestly think its all just a coincidence then you werent paying attention to the lead up to this gen nor the leadup to the 3DS, Wii U, and Vita announcements. Its coming and theres a reason for it. Why is it coming? Because its desperately needed.

The PSP arrived in 2005 and PS3 in 2006 (a year after the 360 mind you which hurt Sony). This gen has lasted too long already. All 3 consoles have reached their max potential. Its time.
 
This year will be the last year where 360 and PS3 will be relevant from a sales and software perspective. And this is with the caveat that both consoles will see a price drop before the fall. Most of the big franchises are wrapping up (at least in their current gen form) by March '13 at the latest. Gears is done. Uncharted is done. Resident Evil is done. Halo is done. Assassin's Creed is done. Mario is done. Zelda is done. Bioshock is done. GTA is right around the corner. Call of Duty is finally peaked. The sports titles have squeezed out every bit of meaningful power and peripheral use that these consoles have offered.

The tech guys have already begun heavily investing in next-gen engines.

Anyone planning big releases on either console for fall 2013 or beyond is likely to get their feelings hurt. Giving Nintendo two Christmas' with zero competition just isn't a realistic move in this marketplace, especially since (given the gap in hardware power) second-gen Wii U titles will look dramatically better than anything MS and Sony have on shelves.

Despite their corporate posturing, MS and Sony will both have new consoles out by fall of 2013.

Common sense: such a beautiful thing to behold.
 

Baki

Member
Well, considering the global financial crisis this is would be one of the worst moment in history to throw away a 60+ million userbase and start all over again with a next xbox console...especially because they are actually making a lot of money with the xbox360 and Sony is the last one who wants to launch a new console in the near future...regardless of all the speculations those kind of decisions are taken by the economists in a company.

I think I re-iterate what I said again. All the industry chatter and trends point to Xbox successor in the near future. Not whether I think MS SHOULD launch a new console but that they WILL launch a new console in the near future.

Now the question is, what is the best response for Sony. Which I outlined above based on previous trends and the current shape of the industry.
 

DarkChild

Banned
This year will be the last year where 360 and PS3 will be relevant from a sales and software perspective. And this is with the caveat that both consoles will see a price drop before the fall. Most of the big franchises are wrapping up (at least in their current gen form) by March '13 at the latest. Gears is done. Uncharted is done. Resident Evil is done. Halo is done. Assassin's Creed is done. Mario is done. Zelda is done. Bioshock is done. GTA is right around the corner. Call of Duty is finally peaked. The sports titles have squeezed out every bit of meaningful power and peripheral use that these consoles have offered.

The tech guys have already begun heavily investing in next-gen engines.

Anyone planning big releases on either console for fall 2013 or beyond is likely to get their feelings hurt. Giving Nintendo two Christmas' with zero competition just isn't a realistic move in this marketplace, especially since (given the gap in hardware power) second-gen Wii U titles will look dramatically better than anything MS and Sony have on shelves.

Despite their corporate posturing, MS and Sony will both have new consoles out by fall of 2013.
Well said!
 
Umm its called common sense amd looking at previous generations. When you see such a drop off of software its not a coincidence.

Nintendo is releasing its next gen console this year. Developers are more and more talking about getting ready for next gen. Publishers are talking about needing something new. More and more rumours of what the next generation of Xbox and Playstation are flowing.

If you honestly think its all just a coincidence then you werent paying attention to the lead up to this gen nor the leadup to the 3DS, Wii U, and Vita announcements. Its coming and theres a reason for it. Why is it coming? Because its desperately needed.

The PSP arrived in 2005 and PS3 in 2006 (a year after the 360 mind you which hurt Sony). This gen has lasted too long already. All 3 consoles have reached their max potential. Its time.

Like i said, if you are so firmly convinced to know the future and to be able to predict exaclty how the global economy will be, when the top Wall Street Economists failed to predict the financial crisis, then you should not lose your time posting in a gaming board but instead you should try to make money in Wall Street.

The problem is, the previous generation the situation was entirely different, the xbox1 was losing a lot of money and MS was in bad need of launching a new Console, not even in their best dreams MS would have ever thought that the xbox360 would one day have a 60+ million userbase, so the problem is that there has never been a situation like this for MS in the past...so why should not they try to make as much money as they can with the current xbox360 ?

Like i said, only time will tell.
 

DarkChild

Banned
Like i said, if you are so firmly convinced to know the future and to be able to predict exaclty how the global economy will be when the top wall Street Economists failed to predict the financial crisis then you should not lose your time posting in a gaming board, but instead you should try to make money in Wall Street.

The problem is, the previous generation the situation was entirely different, the xbox1 was losing a lot of money and MS was in bad need of launching a new Console, not even in their best dreams MS would ever thought that the xbox360 would one day have a 60+ million userbase, so the problem is there have never been such a situation for MS like this on the past...so why should not they try to make as much money as they can with the current xbox360 ?
And you think what? That they aren't releasing new consoles next year? Because if you do think that, than you are wrong. HD twins are pretty much maxed out, big series are closing down this year and developers are moving on new hardware. Aimed specs of new hardware that is, and Wii U.

No body said they will just stop producing 360 and PS3 when next gen comes, it will be there for at least two years until other developers catch up.
 
Prediction for USA Market Launch

WiiU - Fall 2012
Xbox 720 - Spring 2013
PS4 - Fall 2014

Assuming Wii U and 720 sell only at the pace of the 360, that's still conceding a 20 million+ unit lead to both of your competitors. If one takes off like the Wii, youarealreadydead.jpg. That can't be worth having a better video card.
 
And you think what? That they aren't releasing new consoles next year? Because if you do think that, than you are wrong. HD twins are pretty much maxed out, big series are closing down this year and developers are moving on new hardware. Aimed specs of new hardware that is, and Wii U.

No body said they will just stop producing 360 and PS3 when next gen comes, it will be there for at least two years until other developers catch up.

For sure Sony will not release a PS4 anytime soon.

Obviously once a new console is released it changes the perception of the current one, the current one suddenly looks old so releasing a new console is surely gonna hurt the sales of the old one.

At the previuos generation MS had a console that was failing losing a lot of money now they have a console that is succeeding making a lot of money, this is why i am not so sure they want to take such a huge risk releasing the next xbox so soon.

The only competitor for MS is Sony and right now Sony does not want to release a new console anytime soon, they are still recovering from the loss they had launching the PS3 with such a new tech like Blue ray and everything...that's why i really want to wait and see what happens.
 
I've always had a Sony console as my primary console since the PSX. If they stall that long, I will be choosing between the Wii U or Next Box undoubtedly. It's being annoying having fewer friends to play online with having a PS3, so I won't let that happen again. Momentum is everything.
 
The HD graphics of WiiU aka games won't look like shit anymore will probably make the difference between WiiU and PS4/X720 much less obvious than it was this generation. Also most games will probably be ported from WiiU and simply upscaled. Add to that unique controller, Nintendo franchises, and tons of BC Wii software.

Fuck, can't believe I'm getting WiiU as the first console of next generation. Nintendo seems to be always one step ahead.

The only competitor for MS is Sony and right now Sony does not want to release a new console anytime soon, they are still recovering from the loss they had launching the PS3 with such a new tech like Blue ray and everything...that's why i really want to wait and see what happens.

That is not true, Nintendo themselves said that they are coming back to core players with WiiU. I expect a lot more hardcore games and 3rd party feature on WiiU. If Microsoft does not launch in Fall 2012 Nintendo is going to make a killing. 299$ anyone?
 

Baki

Member
For sure Sony will not release a PS4 anytime soon.

Obviously once a new console is released it changes the perception of the current one, the current one suddenly looks old so releasing a new console is surely gonna hurt the sales of the old one.

At the previuos generation MS had a console that was failing losing a lot of money now they have a console that is succeeding making a lot of money, this is why i am not so sure they want to take such a huge risk releasing the next xbox so soon.

The only competitor for MS is Sony and right now Sony does not want to release a new console anytime soon, they are still recovering from the loss they had launching the PS3 with such a new tech like Blue ray and everything...that's why i really want to wait and see what happens.

Yet all the industry chatter and trends indicates otherwise.

Regardless, Sony needs to arrive day and date or within 3 months of an Xbox successor. However knowing how inept and slow Sony is - they will probably allow atleast a 6 month gap.
 
For sure Sony will not release a PS4 anytime soon.

Obviously once a new console is released it changes the perception of the current one, the current one suddenly looks old so releasing a new console is surely gonna hurt the sales of the old one.

At the previuos generation MS had a console that was failing losing a lot of money now they have a console that is succeeding making a lot of money, this is why i am not so sure they want to take such a huge risk releasing the next xbox so soon.

The only competitor for MS is Sony and right now Sony does not want to release a new console anytime soon, they are still recovering from the loss they had launching the PS3 with such a new tech like Blue ray and everything...that's why i really want to wait and see what happens.

The Wii U is releasing this year and it is next gen. It will put pressure on the other two. Next gen for home condsoles is beginning this year.
 

alphaNoid

Banned
I'm not sure who will be first to market, Sony or MS.. but almost certainly MS will be first to announce. Sony is probably going to react to whatever MS does first.
 
Yet all the industry chatter and trends indicates otherwise.

Regardless, Sony needs to arrive day and date or within 3 months of an Xbox successor. However knowing how inept and slow Sony is - they will probably allow atleast a 6 month gap.

I see but since MS is the one that has everything to lose killing the current xbox360 i really want to see if they are going to do this so soon ;)
 
I see but since MS is the one that has everything to lose killing the current xbox360 i really want to see if they are going to do this so soon ;)

They don't have a choice in the matter which is what everybody is saying. The Wii U is coming out this year. Microsoft cannot afford to give Nintendo an entire year by itself just as Sony cannot afford to give Microsoft that amount of time. Microsoft has made their killing recently with Kinect. There isn't any reason they have to stop supporting the 360 just because the next Xbox is coming out. Sony supported the Playstation 2 for quite some time after PS3 arrived. Again, Microsoft is going up against Nintendo whether you choose to admit it or not.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
There's also the very real possibility that neither Wii-U or the 360 successor will set the market on fire. I find it somewhat comical that everyone is assuming that these platforms will outdo their predecessors, when the reality is nowhere near that certain.

Sony don't have a monopoly on failure.
 
There's also the very real possibility that neither Wii-U or the 360 successor will set the market on fire. I find it somewhat comical that everyone is assuming that these platforms will outdo their predecessors, when the reality is nowhere near that certain.

Sony don't have a monopoly on failure.

Who is talking about them outdoing their predecessors? I haven't seen one person make that claim. Again, what matters is that the tech being used is more than 6 years old! The amount of software sold is decreasing at an alarming rate. These machines are now competing against other in home entertainment like iPads, tablets, etc. They need to offer more than what they're currently offering.
 
They don't have a choice in the matter which is what everybody is saying. The Wii U is coming out this year. Microsoft cannot afford to give Nintendo an entire year by itself just as Sony cannot afford to give Microsoft that amount of time. Microsoft has made their killing recently with Kinect. There isn't any reason they have to stop supporting the 360 just because the next Xbox is coming out. Sony supported the Playstation 2 for quite some time after PS3 arrived. Again, Microsoft is going up against Nintendo whether you choose to admit it or not.


But then there's that:

Obviously once a new console is released it changes the perception of the current one, the current one suddenly looks old so releasing a new console is surely gonna hurt the sales of the old one.
 
But then there's that:

Yes but it didn't stop the PS2 selling software and hardware. It's all about what is being offered. Microsoft has helped turn the 360 into a family console as well as 'hardcore' and all they have to do is continue releasing Kinect software with some 3rd parties as well, just like 3rd parties released games on the PS3 & PS2.
 

Razgreez

Member
My perspective on this generation:

Nintendo - repackaged hardware, "innovative controls", mitigated development risk, leverage on mascot based exclusive franchises

Result: Massive early sales and public hype, early eol for the console (dwindling sales of the wii, heavily decreased growth)

MS - rushed console, costly early issues, well supported online functionality, paid timed exclusivity

Result: seemingly most stable current generation but not without (avoidable) major expenses

Sony - Powerful initial hardware specs, rush to launch meant many specs (and power) gimped, "last minute" GPU design choice, lost exclusivity, expensive hardware but well supported 1st party studios

Result: significant loss of market and mind-share (i'm not including their apparent large investment in hardware development etc since i'm not sure how that will impact the PS3/PS4)

There are lessons to be learned from each.
And the perfect console would therefore have:

Innovative yet simple controls and not at the cost of visual fidelity
Visual fidelity yet not at too great a consumer expensive
Robust online/major interconnected-ness - this is also a major expense to manage and maintain
Exclusives that people want and associate the company with(don't neglect your precious mascots), not necessarily what is most visually/technically impressive. This is the most difficult yet most important requirement.

Timing, yes timing is everything but the foundation is far more important. Far too much emphasis placed on release timing. Companies should rather focus on what can control - which is the quality of their own console not the release timing of others
 

DR3AM

Member
if the ps3 is still making them money, ride is out as much as possible. once sales start going down release the ps4.
 
if the ps3 is still making them money, ride is out as much as possible. once sales start going down release the ps4.

It doesn't work that way. If they do that they will be two years behind the Wii U and at least a year behind the next Xbox. You don't wait for something to start losing money before you release your next piece of hardware. You release your next piece of hardware when the trends show that there is less interest in your current system. A company can continue making 'profit' off a system even though there is a decreased interest in it. You don't wait until you stop turning a profit.
 
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