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[Boss Man]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

Wut? Next year the PS3 is getting God of War: Ascension, The Last of Us, and Beyond. There's also a pretty good chance that it'll be getting FF Versus and/or The Last Guardian.

Wii U, PS3, and 360 will all have very similar libraries for the next couple of years. In the first year most of it will probably be ported from 360, and not the other way around too. Third parties aren't going to jump ship from PS360 to Wii U just for that controller.

See: Assassin's Creed 3. That's the way things are going to be until the next stuff arrives. Even after it does, it's possible that the third parties who do decide to develop for Wii U will go ahead and port over to PS360 as well- because, why the hell wouldn't they?

 

[H_Prestige]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

Right, the ps3 will stop getting games next year. Software will shift over to wii u.

 

[Glorified G]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

lol. I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not.

Right, the ps3 will stop getting games next year. Software will shift over to wii u.

You too.

 

[iamshadowlark]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

Uhh what? PS3 is do for another price cut and actually has games coming...

 

[StevieP]

Uhh what? PS3 is do for another price cut and actually has games coming...

Look at the latest NPD figures. Maybe I should've more accurately said Wii in 2011, not 2012. But it doesn't take a genius to figure this gen's on its way out.

Third parties aren't going to jump ship from PS360 to Wii U just for that controller.

They're already transitioning to next gen consoles. What's being made now will be finished and shipped and/or ported up but every console-centric studio that's gone gold in the past year or so has been moved to next gen.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Look at the latest NPD figures. Maybe I should've more accurately said Wii in 2011, not 2012. But it doesn't take a genius to figure this gen's on its way out.



They're already transitioning to next gen consoles. What's being made now will be finished and shipped and/or ported up but every console-centric studio that's gone gold in the past year or so has been moved to next gen.

There's no guarantee that current-gen consoles will just die when next-gen hits. If anything the current consoles need price cuts.

 

[i-Lo]

Syndicate

Vud ve zee facez like zis for next gen (with proper animation) in open vorld gamez? Izzit possibru?

 

[Respawn]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

 

[dragonelite]

Vud ve zee facez like zis for next gen (with proper animation) in open vorld gamez? Izzit possibru?

zit possibru!

 

[onQ123]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

lol I don't think so & with PSN\XBOX Live I don't think the PS3 or Xbox landscape will ever look like the Wii's. well no time soon what dev in their right mind would just give up on these big markets?


PS Vita / PS Mobile will keep PS3 games coming for years & Windows Phone 8 will keep XBLA games coming for years.

 

[AzaK]

Vud ve zee facez like zis for next gen (with proper animation) in open vorld gamez? Izzit possibru?

Do you mean faces with dead eyes? No thanks.

 

[i-Lo]

Do you mean faces with dead eyes? No thanks.

Some people in real life have dead eyes, lol.

Anyway, I really didn't think the model had dead looking eyes. More importantly, a still picture is only half the tale with animation playing a massive role. In games like Uncharted, the devs put a great emphasis on the eyes (they mention that in their Dev Diary) because they realized that most people look there at first and the suspension of the disbelief relies upon it greatly.

I think the next gen really needs some sort of procedural system for facial animation for open world games with tons of voice cast dialogues. I think both ME and BetaShed games rely on them but they definitely need an upgrade.

I remember someone asking me whether I'd be satisfied if WatchDogs' representation becomes the norm for next gen. To that I say yes. However, question remains whether the hardware would be capable to do so.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Right, so when you take into account just estimated BOM figures you're doing it wrong. That was my point. Look at iSuppli's Wii estimate from 2006, subtract it from the $6/console, and ask yourself where the rest of the money went.

I can't actually find any BoM figures for the Wii from iSuppli.

I can only find an analysis by Weekly Tokyo Economics:

Although I'm not sure if their numbers are actually from iSuppli anyway - since the PS3 build cost matches.

They put the production cost per unit at $158.30; with a wholesale price to retailers at $195.99 i.e. a gross margin $37.69 less packaging, shipping and distribution, and other costs allocatable to production.

At the time $1 (USD) bought ~¥115.

That would imply that other costs allocatable to production amounted to ~$30; and retailers received a margin of $50 per unit or ~20%.

This same teardown actually states the PS3 20GB launch model wholesaled for $399.20 - which would have been a $100 margin for retail, ~20% as well.

These margins seem unusually high.

 

[Sothpaw]

So in layman terms this would be how powerful?

Right around the power of a mid-range pc by the time the PS4 is actually released.

 

[Boss Man]

Right around the power of a mid-range pc by the time the PS4 is actually released.

It's worth mentioning that this doesn't amount to a whole lot. I mean, you didn't see games looking like Uncharted 3 when 512MB RAM became available in PC's. Consoles seem to be the force that drives graphics.

 

[Parmenides]

All signs point to a Holiday 2013 launch.

FY14 (April 2014 - March 2015)

The Japanese market isn't collapsing as much as the US market.

When did Japan collapse?

Media Create Week 25, 2012

PS3 619,277

Media Create Week 25, 2011

PS3 600,589

BTW,for the first five months of the year, from January through May, US PS360 sales drop back to 2010 levels


US YTD Hardware Sales (Unit: Million)

 Source: NPD  (Up to Week 21)


           Wii      360      PS3   

2009       2.66     1.38     0.95       
2010       2.03     1.47     1.28       
2011       1.47     1.91     1.41       
2012       0.71     1.46     1.18

the current consoles need price cuts.

The price of the PS2 on launch day was $299

U.S. PS2 sales declined 25 % in 2003 and dropped another 25% in 2004.What did they do? cut prices a couple of times before launching a new console.It worked because the system had strong third party support.

Sony cannot afford to give Nintendo a 2 year head start in Japan.

Nintendo is a fantastic company and the Wii U could be successful,but Sony profits come from third party sales.


Famitsu Top 30 (January 3,2011 - June 17,2012)

Software Sales - Third Party (Excluding MH and DQ)

PS3 -11,119,293

3DS - 3,363,628

PSV - 519,182


Software Sales - Third Party

PS3 - 11,506,652

3DS - 5,585,530

PSV - 519,182

The japanese industry is five years behind the curve,so there's no room for a hardware upgrade.Morover the PS3 hasn't reached the ¥15,000 or the ¥20,000 price points yet.Basically,from a Sony point of view,the PS3 will have a 9 million unit head-star by the time the Wii U enters the market plus the price advantage.

Another thing thats starting to confuse me is all the big software titles being pushed into 2013. Theres too many that I've lost count. GTAV, Tomb Raider, Bioshock Infinite, GoW: A, ect. I'm sure Ive missed at least 5 big titles. Theres a good chance they might release TLoU and Beyond in holiday 2013. Its look like there 2013 will be stronger then 2012 for them, and begs the question why is the industry releasing all these huge titles on the older hardware the same year the newer hardware is coming out. The more and more I think about it I dont see PS3 releasing during holiday 2013, and a Spring 2014-Fall 2014 release seems much more likely.

Yeah

Sony's new management team set a three-year plan for the PlayStation business built around the PS3,Vita and PSN. Sony is banking on the PS3 and its software sales (over 300 million units shipped over the last couple of years) to be the engine that drives Game profits until the end of the three-year cycle,so its successor should only play a minor role during the fiscal year ending march 31,2015,when the tech will be a little more mature,the PS3 will be targeted exclusively to kids,casual gamers and emerging markets after reaching key price points,and the Vita situation will be solved.Basically Sony will save a considerable amount of money while avoiding the dreadful sales and profits cannibalization between PS3,PS Vita and PS4 in both hardware and software.

Sony's CFO: F4Q11 Results Earnings Call (May 10, 2012)

PS3 in its current stage of the life cycle, still I think are in kind of mid-stream, the life of the platform, the momentum is still very strong...

So as the installed base grows as you know we make a lot of money on the software side and I think this trend will go on for another hopefully several years...

So we’re not in kind of desperate need mode to have a next-generation coming to the business

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

Yea I dont think so. PS3 is poised to be much stronger next year then this year! Its actually quite baffling, which is another reason why I don't think PS4 will release until sometime in 2014. You have the The Last of Us, GoW: A, Beyond, hopefully FFversus13, and maybe The Last Guardian.

Im hoping The Last Guardian will get pushed to PS4 as a PS4 launch title. That would create HUGE hype for PS4, and it makes sense as all there problems seem to have been technical ones, PS4 would elevate these problems. I think it would be genius, but hey that's probably exactly why Sony wont do it.

FY14 (April 2014 - March 2015)
The japanese industry is five years behind the curve,so there's no room for a hardware upgrade.Morover the PS3 hasn't reached the ¥15,000 or the ¥20,000 price points yet.Basically,from a Sony point of view,the PS3 will have a 9 million unit head-star by the time the Wii U enters the market plus the price advantage.


Yeah

Sony's new management team set a three-year plan for the PlayStation business built around the PS3,Vita and PSN. Sony is banking on the PS3 and its software sales (over 300 million units shipped over the last couple of years) to be the engine that drives Game profits until the end of the three-year cycle,so its successor should only play a minor role during the fiscal year ending march 31,2015,when the tech will be a little more mature,the PS3 will be targeted exclusively to kids,casual gamers and emerging markets after reaching key price points,and the Vita situation will be solved.Basically Sony will save a considerable amount of money while avoiding the dreadful sales and profits cannibalization between PS3,PS Vita and PS4 in both hardware and software.

Sony's CFO: F4Q11 Results Earnings Call (May 10, 2012)

Makes a lot of sense and further supports my theory we wont see PS4, and therefor probably 720 as well until 2014. They could release in Japan earlier in 2014(spring time) and release in NA+EU in Fall of 2014. In that earnings call to there stockholders they basically say there in no rush to release a new console. That isnt a PR statement, thats for the stockholders. They wouldnt mislead them.

A 2014 release would also elevate all those problems with memory denisties. We could easily get 4gb GDD5 of memory then, probably 6gb. The Wii U really doesnt affect them or MS unless it was on the market more then 2 years on the market without a PS4 or 720 release. We wont see any signifigant graphical differences in Wii U games for 1-2 years, until its userbase is very sizable, theres not enough incentive for devs to invest is the Wii U's version of games. Plus IMO I dont believe Wii U is any stronger then PS3/360 then Xbox was to PS2, maybe just a bit more. If xbox was 2x PS2, Wii U may be 2.5x 360/PS3 at the most. Really we wont see many games taking full advntage of Wii U, just like Xbox there will be 3-4 titles that push the system that arnt first party. I remember people saying a couple years ago that Xbox was NEVER full taken advantage 100%. Where the incentive for the devs? Unles this thing blows huge numbers out of the gate, like 15million+ first year, it just wont happen when there's two consoles with a combined user base of about 150million. Therefor Wii U will have little affect on when MS and Sony launch there next gen systems.

 

[shinra-bansho]

FY14 (April 2014 - March 2015)

When did Japan collapse?

Media Create Week 25, 2012


Media Create Week 25, 2011


BTW,for the first five months of the year, from January through May, US PS360 sales drop back to 2010 levels

Sony's new management team set a three-year plan for the PlayStation business built around the PS3,Vita and PSN. Sony is banking on the PS3 and its software sales (over 300 million units shipped over the last couple of years) to be the engine that drives Game profits until the end of the three-year cycle,so its successor should only play a minor role during the fiscal year ending march 31,2015,when the tech will be a little more mature,the PS3 will be targeted exclusively to kids,casual gamers and emerging markets after reaching key price points,and the Vita situation will be solved.Basically Sony will save a considerable amount of money while avoiding the dreadful sales and profits cannibalization between PS3,PS Vita and PS4 in both hardware and software.

Sony's CFO: F4Q11 Results Earnings Call (May 10, 2012)

The point was that there's no point in launching a console in Japan first and the Western markets later, as Japan is holding better than Western markets.

US sales are between 2009 and 2010 levels, the PS3 is selling at a lower ASP these first five months vs 2011. Also, I'm not sure why you're looking at the PS3 in isolation. In the broader context, US HW and SW sales are down significantly - save for a few big releases, new releases aren't selling well.

Launching in FY14 and expecting to more than double operating income margin in FY14 - when in all likelihood they'll be selling the PS4 for a loss - also doesn't make sense. Cost reductions on current gen platforms aren't going to yield those margins; and the state of the Vita's sales means that even significant cost reductions aren't going to offset a console launch.

Also even under the notion that the Wii U won't be competing with the PS4, the only conceivable reason they'd launch any significant period of time after Microsoft's 720 is production problems. Ergo, this assumes that Microsoft are planning a 2014 launch as well.

 

[specialguy]

It's worth mentioning that this doesn't amount to a whole lot. I mean, you didn't see games looking like Uncharted 3 when 512MB RAM became available in PC's. Consoles seem to be the force that drives graphics.

Great post. I try to make this point over and over usually in worse words.

I think the PS4 as posited (2GB RAM but it's all VRAM basically one giant video card, essentially a HD 7850) should easily handle a Crysis 3 full max settings PC spec port at 1080P with a little optimization (since I'm sure a HD7850 equipped PC will). And that alone should be pretty damn awesome.

Then when devs actually start to tap it, it's nigh unimaginable what they'll be able to do, looking at Killzone 2/3 on PS3 for example.

i mean ps4 gpu will have 7 times the flops of ps3 gpu, before we even get into how much more efficient those flops will be as a multiplier. it's insane.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

The point was that there's no point in launching a console in Japan first and the Western markets later, as Japan is holding better than Western markets.

US sales are between 2009 and 2010 levels, the PS3 is selling at a lower ASP these first five months vs 2011. Also, I'm not sure why you're looking at the PS3 in isolation. In the broader context, US HW and SW sales are down significantly - save for a few big releases, new releases aren't selling well.

Launching in FY14 and expecting to more than double operating income margin in FY14 - when in all likelihood they'll be selling the PS4 for a loss - also doesn't make sense. Cost reductions on current gen platforms aren't going to yield those margins; and the state of the Vita's sales means that even significant cost reductions aren't going to offset a console launch.

Also even under the notion that the Wii U won't be competing with the PS4, the only conceivable reason they'd launch any significant period of time after Microsoft's 720 is production problems. Ergo, this assumes that Microsoft are planning a 2014 launch as well.

They have never launched in US before Japan, even though I agree it makes sense to this time around, its highly unlikely.

Also HW is barely below 2010, and is still way above 2009 numbers. 2009 and 2010 were there golden years of this generation! SW numbers at retail only paint half the picture. Its pretty obvious that PSN and Xbox marketplace revenue has increased way above 2009 and 2010. Its a shame that we dont have accurate numbers on this because I believe it would paint a very different picture on the current state of the industry.

Yes I agree Sony will not be launching a significant time after MS, so this assumes there launching in 2014 as well. They'll be launching around the same time. What says that MS has to launch in holiday 2013 as well? nothing! I think at one point, maybe a year or two ago Sony had planed to launch in 2013, and now plans have change due to technical reasons and other factors(having less then 4gb of memory in PS4 isnt going to happen). There was some talk about this a month or so before E3.

 

[Schobeleth]

It's worth mentioning that this doesn't amount to a whole lot. I mean, you didn't see games looking like Uncharted 3 when 512MB RAM became available in PC's. Consoles seem to be the force that drives graphics.

This, so much. I never quite knew how to properly put it to words either. Most of my friends are HUGE pc fanboys so the argument of graphics always comes up in consoles vs. pcs.

 

[shinra-bansho]

They have never launched in US before Japan, even though I agree it makes sense to this time around, its highly unlikely.

Also HW is barely below 2010, and is still way above 2009 numbers. 2009 and 2010 were there golden years of this generation! SW numbers at retail only paint half the picture. Its pretty obvious that PSN and Xbox marketplace revenue has increased way above 2009 and 2010. Its a shame that we dont have accurate numbers on this because I believe it would paint a very different picture on the current state of the industry.

Yes I agree Sony will not be launching a significant time after MS, so this assumes there launching in 2014 as well. They'll be launching around the same time. What says that MS has to launch in holiday 2013 as well? nothing! I think at one point, maybe a year or two ago Sony had planed to launch in 2013, and now plans have change due to technical reasons and other factors. There was some talk about this a month or so before E3.

RE: barely below vs way above... it's 100K one way and 200K another...

2010 full year US PS3 sales were ~4.3M vs 4.5M for 2011.

US sales are lopsided towards the end of the year. If proportional Y/Y declines each month remain consistent or worsen (which as we venture into post-price drop Y/Y territory, may happen) then full CY 2012 US PS3 sales will end up around 3.8M.

As to what's stopping Microsoft from launching later as well. It's called the Wii U. Regardless of PR bravado, they're competing.

 

[JJD]

No. The PS3 landscape next year will look like the Wii's does this year.

You must be joking.

2013

Aliens Colonial Marines
Bioshock Infinite
Crysis 3
Dead Space 3
DmC (Devil May Cry)
God of War Ascension
The Last of Us
Lost Planet 3
Metal Gear Rising
Metro Last Light
Splinter Cell Blacklist
Rainbow 6 Patriots
Tomb Raider
COD Modern Future Ultimate Warfare IV

Those just on top of my head, I'm sure there's more and probably some unannounced ones. Twilight year of 360 and specially PS3 are looking way better than the Wii best years.

And that's a shame, the Wii deserved better.

 

[Death Dealer]

i mean ps4 gpu will have 7 times the flops of ps3 gpu, before we even get into how much more efficient those flops will be as a multiplier. it's insane.

On that note, I've read on B3D, twice as efficient is a conservative number.

So if it 7x in raw flops, it would be 14x in practical terms.

 

[Globox_82]

people should really forget WiiU. that system is irrelevant. For God sake they are not even getting proper 3rd party support. Where is Cod, Infinite, not even a version of watch Dogs and 10s of other games from 3rd party. But o they got Darksiders 2 and ...... o yeah one year old Batman game. Lol come on now.
By the looks of things in therms of 3rd party support WiiU can't even compete with current gen, what makes you think it will be able to compete with two monsters in nextbox and PS4? Reality check.

 

[Boss Man]

people should really forget WiiU. that system is irrelevant. For God sake they are not even getting proper 3rd party support. Where is Cod, Infinite, not even a version of watch Dogs and 10s of other games from 3rd party. But o they got Darksiders 2 and ...... o yeah one year old Batman game. Lol come on now.
By the looks of things in therms of 3rd party support WiiU can't even compete with current gen, what makes you think it will be able to compete with two monsters in nextbox and PS4? Reality check.

Wrong thread, but I don't think anything Nintendo makes right now is going to be irrelevant. The Wii U will probably be similar to the Wii in terms of support. The Wii wasn't exactly irrelevant. Maybe it doesn't appeal to you (I didn't buy one either), but it definitely has its audience.

 

[nhlducks35]

Wouldn't Sony be buying everything in bulk? So wouldn't the cost of supplies be even cheaper?

 

[bgassassin]

FY14 (April 2014 - March 2015)

Keep fighting the good fight. I'm disappointed in the lack of multiple, changing quotes to support this.

It's worth mentioning that this doesn't amount to a whole lot. I mean, you didn't see games looking like Uncharted 3 when 512MB RAM became available in PC's. Consoles seem to be the force that drives graphics.

Sounds similar to a debate we were having in the Wii U thread and why that is the case with a PC vs a console.

 

[StevieP]

You must be joking.

list wars

Those just on top of my head, I'm sure there's more and probably some unannounced ones. Twilight year of 360 and specially PS3 are looking way better than the Wii best years.

And that's a shame, the Wii deserved better.

I corrected myself and mentioned 2011 being equialent to "HD 2013", not 2012. The console wasn't selling <100k/mo in 2011 for the most part.

Regardless, if you guys care to venture into the last few NPD threads, create a graph with some data points, and follow a simple trajectory you will realize that even with a price drop you're not going to want Sony to wait until 2014 to release a console. I don't know about you, but I'd rather not have a 2-horse race.

people should really forget WiiU. that system is irrelevant. For God sake they are not even getting proper 3rd party support. Where is Cod, Infinite, not even a version of watch Dogs and 10s of other games from 3rd party. But o they got Darksiders 2 and ...... o yeah one year old Batman game. Lol come on now.
By the looks of things in therms of 3rd party support WiiU can't even compete with current gen, what makes you think it will be able to compete with two monsters in nextbox and PS4? Reality check.

And people say I'm joking. C'mon dude.

Great post. I try to make this point over and over usually in worse words.

I think the PS4 as posited (2GB RAM but it's all VRAM basically one giant video card, essentially a HD 7850) should easily handle a Crysis 3 full max settings PC spec port at 1080P with a little optimization (since I'm sure a HD7850 equipped PC will). And that alone should be pretty damn awesome.

Uhh... when you say "optimization" do you mean "turning down a whole bunch of sliders, like AA/AF, settings a bunch of stuff to the PC equivalent of medium (or "high" in the case of Crytek), and running at an average of 22fps"? Because while coding closer to the metal will obviously produce better results, there is no creating hardware grunt out of thin air. Right? 1080p requires an almost-doubling of the amount of rendered pixels over 720p.

 

[JJD]

I corrected myself and mentioned 2011 being equialent to "HD 2013", not 2012. The console wasn't selling <100k/mo in 2011 for the most part.

Regardless, if you guys care to venture into the last few NPD threads, create a graph with some data points, and follow a simple trajectory you will realize that even with a price drop you're not going to want Sony to wait until 2014 to release a console. I don't know about you, but I'd rather not have a 2-horse race.

I don't disagree with you there, I just couldn't agree with your point about PS3 content being released on 2013, and I didn't realize that you had corrected it, sorry!

Sony has stated that they don't want to give MS a great headstart right? I'm guessing we'll be seeing the PS4 6 months later than the 720 at most.

They have learned a lot this past generation, hopefully they'll put it to good use.

Sony went on record stating that they are relying on their first party studios to give then input on the new hardware design for the first time (besides the Vita), so I'm expecting good things. Sony's developers are technically great.

 

[LowEndTorque]

people should really forget WiiU. that system is irrelevant. For God sake they are not even getting proper 3rd party support. Where is Cod, Infinite, not even a version of watch Dogs and 10s of other games from 3rd party. But o they got Darksiders 2 and ...... o yeah one year old Batman game. Lol come on now.
By the looks of things in therms of 3rd party support WiiU can't even compete with current gen, what makes you think it will be able to compete with two monsters in nextbox and PS4? Reality check.

something something Mario.

 

[GoofsterStud]

(besides the Vita)

*sigh*

 

[OniShiro]

something something Mario.

Mario is first party not third party.

 

[LowEndTorque]

Mario is first party not third party.

Spoiler

it was directed at the "forget about the WiiU, it's an irrelevant system" part. Not the "they have no 3rd party support" part.

 

[iamshadowlark]

No way either company waits past Q4 2013.

 

[mrklaw]

There's no guarantee that current-gen consoles will just die when next-gen hits. If anything the current consoles need price cuts.

I think there is potential for the current gen to go longer than PS2 (and obviously xbox as they killed it)

Especially if the WiiU starts to get some ports and if it is in the ballpark of PS3/360, there will be a decent mainstream market for mid-priced games for some time to come. Yes, it'll mostly be licenses or big franchises, and they'll probably be farmed out to secondary development teams while the main teams focus on the PS4/720, but there will still be product available for it.

 

[mrklaw]

people should really forget WiiU. that system is irrelevant. For God sake they are not even getting proper 3rd party support. Where is Cod, Infinite, not even a version of watch Dogs and 10s of other games from 3rd party. But o they got Darksiders 2 and ...... o yeah one year old Batman game. Lol come on now.
By the looks of things in therms of 3rd party support WiiU can't even compete with current gen, what makes you think it will be able to compete with two monsters in nextbox and PS4? Reality check.

If PS4/720 isn't out until 2014, WiiU is far from irrelevant. I'm buying one anyway for pikmin, but I can't wait until 2014 for a next gen console, I need something now.

 

[Canis lupus]

Next year could be possibly the biggest year for PS3 in terms of exclusives, just like the PS2 it will go out with a huge bang. PS2 went out with GoW2, FF12, Ôkami and Persona 4. PS3 will go out with Beyond, TLOU, NiNoKuni, Yakuza 5, The Last Guardian, FFvs13, God of War Ascension.

dat lineup...

 

[onQ123]

No way either company waits past Q4 2012.

 

[jeff_rigby]

Yea I dont think so. PS3 is poised to be much stronger next year then this year! Its actually quite baffling, which is another reason why I don't think PS4 will release until sometime in 2014. You have the The Last of Us, GoW: A, Beyond, hopefully FFversus13, and maybe The Last Guardian.

Im hoping The Last Guardian will get pushed to PS4 as a PS4 launch title. That would create HUGE hype for PS4, and it makes sense as all there problems seem to have been technical ones, PS4 would elevate these problems. I think it would be genius, but hey that's probably exactly why Sony wont do it.

FY14 (April 2014 - March 2015)

Sony's new management team set a three-year plan for the PlayStation business built around the PS3,Vita and PSN. Sony is banking on the PS3 and its software sales (over 300 million units shipped over the last couple of years) to be the engine that drives Game profits until the end of the three-year cycle,so its successor should only play a minor role during the fiscal year ending march 31, 2015, when the tech will be a little more mature, the PS3 will be targeted exclusively to kids,casual gamers and emerging markets after reaching key price points,and the Vita situation will be solved.Basically Sony will save a considerable amount of money while avoiding the dreadful sales and profits cannibalization between PS3,PS Vita and PS4 in both hardware and software.

Sony's CFO: F4Q11 Results Earnings Call (May 10, 2012)

Makes a lot of sense and further supports my theory we wont see PS4, and therefor probably 720 as well until 2014. They could release in Japan earlier in 2014(spring time) and release in NA+EU in Fall of 2014. In that earnings call to there stockholders they basically say there in no rush to release a new console. That isnt a PR statement, thats for the stockholders. They wouldnt mislead them.

A 2014 release would also elevate all those problems with memory denisties. We could easily get 4gb GDD5 of memory then, probably 6gb. The Wii U really doesnt affect them or MS unless it was on the market more then 2 years on the market without a PS4 or 720 release. We wont see any signifigant graphical differences in Wii U games for 1-2 years, until its userbase is very sizable, theres not enough incentive for devs to invest is the Wii U's version of games. Plus IMO I dont believe Wii U is any stronger then PS3/360 then Xbox was to PS2, maybe just a bit more. If xbox was 2x PS2, Wii U may be 2.5x 360/PS3 at the most. Really we wont see many games taking full advntage of Wii U, just like Xbox there will be 3-4 titles that push the system that arnt first party. I remember people saying a couple years ago that Xbox was NEVER full taken advantage 100%. Where the incentive for the devs? Unles this thing blows huge numbers out of the gate, like 15million+ first year, it just wont happen when there's two consoles with a combined user base of about 150million. Therefor Wii U will have little affect on when MS and Sony launch there next gen systems.

Very well thought out and supported. I'd only add that we should expect a new lower cost PS3.5 with the same features as in the Xbox 361 to better support "the PS3 will be targeted exclusively to kids, casual gamers and emerging markets after reaching key price points". = Digitimes PS4 rumor which in hindsight is a PS3.5 with depth camera.

Vud ve zee facez like zis for next gen (with proper animation) in open vorld gamez? Izzit possibru?

Yup, facial recognition and open world games with animated faces taken from your facial expressions next year; patents point to this. Free to play, Augmented Reality, open world games, Home, faster loading and use of WebGL + Lua or Phyre engine.

 

[Canis lupus]

^We will see wether there is a super slim PS3, if it doesnt come out this holiday season then we can probably forget it.

 

[iamshadowlark]

2013

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

Very well thought out and supported. I'd only add that we should expect a new lower cost PS3.5 with the same features as in the Xbox 361 to better support "the PS3 will be targeted exclusively to kids, casual gamers and emerging markets after reaching key price points". = Digitimes PS4 rumor which in hindsight is a PS3.5 with depth camera.

Yup, facial recognition and open world games with animated faces taken from your facial expressions next year; patents point to this. Free to play, Augmented Reality, open world games, Home, faster loading and use of WebGL + Lua.

Can you link me to this digitimes rumor? I think calling it a PS3.5 is misleading. I'm sure a hardware revision is coming, and it may have the features you've described, but calling it a PS3.5 makes it sound like its going to be more powerful hardware offering different games. Which is not what I think you've been alluding to for the past few weeks. I'm not sure if Sony would change the name from PS3 either, they could rebrand it and change the lettering like they did with the 2009 slim revision. One thing that makes me doubt the whole thing, is if they cant drop the price and at least make the same profit margin there making now I dont see why they would do something like this a year and a half before PS4 launches. Which I dont think adding all these hardware features helps them do that, as it will be counter productive to decreasing manufacturing costs.

 

[M°°nblade]

I corrected myself and mentioned 2011 being equialent to "HD 2013", not 2012. The console wasn't selling <100k/mo in 2011 for the most part.

Regardless, if you guys care to venture into the last few NPD threads, create a graph with some data points, and follow a simple trajectory you will realize that even with a price drop you're not going to want Sony to wait until 2014 to release a console. I don't know about you, but I'd rather not have a 2-horse race.

If you would do that, you'd see how much income sony would lose by prematurely killing hard- and software sales by launching a PS4 in 2013.

If you would look at graphs from previous generation console life cycles, you would also see why Wii 2011 sales are a bad example for predicting either PS3 or X360 2013 sales.

Due to poor hardware and/or software support, Wii sales were pretty frontloaded (2008) with a long tail to the right whereas conventional console sales are normally distributed.

You're right about saying that it doesn't take a genius to figure this gen's on its way out.
It also doesn't take a genius to see that the PS3 and X360 sales won't decline at the same rate the Wii did. The landscape won't be comparable.

 

[jeff_rigby]

Can you link me to this digitimes rumor? I think calling it a PS3.5 is misleading. I'm sure a hardware revision is coming, and it may have the features you've described, but calling it a PS3.5 makes it sound like its going to be more powerful hardware offering different games. Which is not what I think you've been alluding to for the past few weeks. I'm not sure if Sony would change the name from PS3 either, they could rebrand it and change the lettering like they did with the 2009 slim revision. One thing that makes me doubt the whole thing, is if they cant drop the price and at least make the same profit margin there making now I dont see why they would do something like this a year to a year and a half before PS4 launches. Which I dont think adding all these hardware features helps them do that.

This all there is:

Sony will have Taiwan-based partners begin production of PlayStation 4 (PS4) featuring body movement-based control like Kinect at the end of 2011 for launch in 2012, according to Taiwan-based component makers.

Foxconn and Pegatron Technology, assemblers of PS3, will undertake assembly of PS4 as well, the sources pointed out.

The planned shipment volume of PS4 in 2012 is at least 20 million units, the sources indicated.

If it's for sale in 2012 we now know it is not a PS4. 20 million sold the first year and Movement based control= something extraordinary

Current Kinect on Xbox 360 has serious memory and processor limitations. Sony said they would not release a depth camera until it could be implemented properly. There is a patent just published for a Sony depth camera. Normally Sony does not publish a patent unless they are about to use it; filed yes, published no. IF PS4 is coming out in 2014-2015 as you suggest (I think 2014), then the depth camera patent is for something coming earlier.

A Xbox 361 SOC with more memory, a newer possibly better GPU with HDMI pass-thru (no other way to support it) and low power modes (means new I/O interfaces) is coming this Christmas season. Multiple indications of a refreshed PS3 also. The digitimes rumor suggests it's more than a refresh. Sony must know Microsoft plans for the Xbox 361 with Google TV like HDMI pass-thru and considering their interest in Google TV shouldn't we expect something like it coming from Sony? More memory and better GPU plus Wireless N, USB 3.0 and more means SPUs can be used for voice recognition and Gesture recognition and properly supported.

It will be a SOC made by IBM and AMD/Global foundries and cheap (must be to sell 20 million the first year). Volume is not an issue but SOC design costs would be high. SOC design costs can be shared by Sony and Microsoft = microsoft-sony.com and that domain name was registered the same month the Digitimes rumor was published. Dec 2011 the Oban SOC was taped out and 10,000 wafers produced for Microsoft, the leaked rumor was IBM PPC + AMD GPU/support & Interface I/O. My opinion is Oban is the Durango SOC for the Xbox 361 and possibly for the PS3.5. Xbox 720 SOC is called Yukon in the Microsoft power point. ADD that Oban is a Japanese name for a large blank oblong gold coin.

 

[z0m3le]

On that note, I've read on B3D, twice as efficient is a conservative number.

So if it 7x in raw flops, it would be 14x in practical terms.

so wait... Xbox was 21GFLOPs and 360 is 240GFLOPs... so does that mean it's really closer to 24X in "practical terms"?

Or PS2 being 6GFLOPs and PS3 being ~255GFLOPs is 42.5x in raw flops better, but thanks to "practical terms" it's closer to 85X? and PS4 is only going to be 14x better by the same measurement?

 

[Olli]

LOL at people who think that the PS3 will be on the same level the Wii was 2011. Neither on software lineup nor on the hardware front. Sony still can make use a nice 50 or maybe even 100$ price cut if they wanted to.

Also do not forget people that the Ps3 is still outselling the 360 world wide. Not by much but they still do.

 

[z0m3le]

LOL at people who think that the PS3 will be on the same level the Wii was 2011. Neither on software lineup nor on the hardware front. Sony still can make use a nice 50 or maybe even 100$ price cut if they wanted to.

Also do not forget people that the Ps3 is still outselling the 360 world wide. Not by much but they still do.

PS3 will have long legs, I am not sure how Sony will launch the PS4, but them no longer being worried about coming out before the XB3 like they were at the beginning of this year, tells me there has been delays.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

This all there is:

If it's for sale in 2012 we now know it is not a PS4. 20 million sold the first year and Movement based control= something extraordinary

Current Kinect on Xbox 360 has serious memory and processor limitations. Sony said they would not release a depth camera until it could be implemented properly. There is a patent just published for a Sony depth camera. Normally Sony does not publish a patent unless they are about to use it; filed yes, published no. IF PS4 is coming out in 2014-2015 as you suggest (I think 2014), then the depth camera patent is for something coming earlier.

A Xbox 361 SOC with more memory, a newer possibly better GPU with HDMI pass-thru (no other way to support it) and low power modes (means new I/O interfaces) is coming this Christmas season. Multiple indications of a refreshed PS3 also. The digitimes rumor suggests it's more than a refresh. Sony must know Microsoft plans for the Xbox 361 with Google TV like HDMI pass-thru and considering their interest in Google TV shouldn't we expect something like it coming from Sony? More memory and better GPU plus Wireless N, USB 3.0 and more means SPUs can be used for voice recognition and Gesture recognition and properly supported.

It will be a SOC made by IBM and AMD/Global foundries and cheap (must be to sell 20 million the first year). Volume is not an issue but SOC design costs would be high. SOC design costs can be shared by Sony and Microsoft = microsoft-sony.com and that domain name was registered the same month the Digitimes rumor was published. Dec 2011 the Oban SOC was taped out and 10,000 wafers produced for Microsoft, the leaked rumor was IBM PPC + AMD GPU/support & Interface I/O. My opinion is Oban is the Durango SOC for the Xbox 361 and possibly for the PS3.5. Xbox 720 SOC is called Yukon in the Microsoft power point. ADD that Oban is a Japanese name for a large blank oblong gold coin.

Why would they be putting in a better GPU and more memory? Surely games couldnt take advantage of this, as then the games wouldnt run on the current version of the PS3. The extra power and resources would be just for the camera? I do think the PS4 is coming in 2014, dunno where you got 2015 from. How much would it cost to manufacture? They can't raise the price on the PS3 with this model... I'm sorry but this all seems a bit crazy. 20 million units shipped for a PS3 revision like this would be completely ludicrous(thats PS2/Wii levels), and makes me think the digitimes rumor is BS and shouldn't be looked at this closely.

PS3 will have long legs, I am not sure how Sony will launch the PS4, but them no longer being worried about coming out before the XB3 like they were at the beginning of this year, tells me there has been delays.

Yep which is why it will be coming out in fall 2014 NA/EU in but people still think everything points to it coming out in 2013, cause at one time it was so people are still fixated on these old outdated rumors that are no longer true.

Another wild prediction of mine is The Last Guardian will be a PS4 launch title! You heard it here first folks!

 

[SolidSnakex]

PS3 will have long legs, I am not sure how Sony will launch the PS4, but them no longer being worried about coming out before the XB3 like they were at the beginning of this year, tells me there has been delays.

When did they say that? The only recent timeframe quote that I can think of is when they said that they've never launched first. But I thought that was just in reference to the fact that the Wii U will be first on the market.