To all the naysayers, we'll meet here again next year.
I expect it will do quite well in the holiday period, and Liberation will sell quite a few systems - I never before had a youtube clip get more than 10.000 views in a few days, even though it was blurry as heck. I reckon 250 euro is still too expensive even with Liberation, LBP or CoD included to start shifting serious numbers, but I think they'll be at 4-6 million at its first birthday in the West. Games like Most Wanted will also continue to show what the system can do, and if that game gets cross-play, that wil be interesting.
But the device is sound, there are a lot of great games out already and plenty more coming, and I'm sure Sony is willing to play the long game. As far as I am concerned, with regards to Monster Hunter 4, I bet it is only a question whether the Vita will get the same version as the 3DS or a version closer to the HD consoles (compare to the first lego game released for both). Don't forget that the Vita has 6x the memory of the 3DSand comes with dual analog by default.
The system will keep getting games, and by the time it hits mass market prices that combined with excellent controls and new features Sony will keep bringing to the device will make it an attractive enough proposition. Hopefully they can improve the memorycard proposition. If they can't make their proprietary cards cheaper and faster, I think they will have no choice but to do a redesign with CF somehow.