Support NeoGAF

[Kagari]

Is the revenue generated from mobile apps by SE really that much?

Considering the amount of DLC cash-grabbing they've put into them... probably. That, and most of them run around $20 or so.

 

[Meelow]

I have to say something, what if Sony brings out with something new of a controller? I really don't think Sony will stick with just a Duel Shock 4, it's too risky for Sony because the Wii U will have the Gamepad and the Xbox 720 will have the Kinect 2 with maybe Smartglass, if Sony brings in something new that will raise the cost.

But that's what I think.

 

[Globox_82]

Lol calm down...

I never mentioned 2013 in my post, i have always said March 2014 for PS4 in this thread.

I don't care how you spin it, PS4 isn't getting a 4TF GPU and it's not just to do with cost, its the power consumption, heat in a small console case, combined with the astronomical software development costs building games that push a 4TF GPU would bring.

A 2TF GPU, 4GB of Ram PS4 in March 2014 for $400 would be perfect.

NAH ps4 will be between 2.5tf - 3tf . 2.5 tf being minimun.

 

[Globox_82]

I have to say something, what if Sony brings out with something new of a controller? I really don't think Sony will stick with just a Duel Shock 4, it's too risky for Sony because the Wii U will have the Gamepad and the Xbox 720 will have the Kinect 2 with maybe Smartglass, if Sony brings in something new that will raise the cost.

But that's what I think.

if they fix bottom triggers = perfect controller

 

[thuway]

Lol calm down...

I never mentioned 2013 in my post, i have always said March 2014 for PS4 in this thread.

I don't care how you spin it, PS4 isn't getting a 4TF GPU and it's not just to do with cost, its the power consumption, heat in a small console case, combined with the astronomical software development costs building games that push a 4TF GPU would bring.

A 2TF GPU, 4GB of Ram PS4 in March 2014 for $400 would be perfect.

Sigh, let's try this again.

Rumor-
8870 = 4 Teraflops @ 160 watts
8850 = 2.5 Teraflops @ 110 watts

The 9000 series will be 30% more efficient by default since it is switching to a 20nm process.

98XX = 4 Teraflops @ 112 watts (if 30% more efficient)

That's how I figure the 4 teraflop number. It's logical, and nothing out of the ordinary. The top level cards at the time will be pushing 6 Teraflops.

 

[Donnie]

I'm just sick of saying the same shit over and over again. People see a number like 4 Teraflops and scoff at it. What they have yet to understand is that it will be NINE FUCKING years.

2013 is toxic. Tech just isn't ready. People have zero idea how expensive and hot GDDR5 is. They are also suggesting Microsoft will put in 6 GB of it in a console? They have lost it. It's 2014, or they will have serious compromises.

Is 4Tflops possible in 2014?, of course, but I don't think people have to simply accept that its probable no matter how many times you talk about DDR4 and stacked ram. Yes 9 years is a long time, but what you're talking about would probably be a bigger leap in power than current gen was over last and current gen consoles started out costing $600-800. I think a lot of people expect both MS and Sony to be more conservative this time. I can't say I disagree with them personally. MS are also going for a media unit probably with Kinect included for instance, so that's going to add to the cost.

Last firm rumours we heard was 1.2Tflop GPU for XBox3 and 1.8Tflop GPU for PS4. Now that's going to increase to 4Tflop?, that's an extreme increase.

 

[thuway]

Is 4Tflops possible in 2014?, of course, but I don't think people have to simply accept that its probable no matter how many times you talk about DDR4 and stacked ram. Yes 9 years is a long time, but what you're talking about would probably be a bigger leap in power than current gen was over last and current gen consoles started out costing $600-800. I think a lot of people expect both MS and Sony to be more conservative this time. I can't say I disagree with them personally. MS are also going for a media unit probably with Kinect included for instance, so that's going to add to the cost.

Ask yourself a question: Why was the PlayStation 3 $599?

It was stuffed full of exotic tech, and over-engineered decisions. The cell was expensive, XDR 2 was expensive, and Bluray was super expensive. Being conservative in 2014, will yield 4 Teraflops.

 

[i-Lo]

Sigh, let's try this again.

Rumor-
8870 = 4 Teraflops @ 160 watts
8850 = 2.5 Teraflops @ 110 watts

The 9000 series will be 30% more efficient by default since it is switching to a 20nm process.

98XX = 4 Teraflops @ 112 watts (if 30% more efficient)

That's how I figure the 4 teraflop number. It's logical, and nothing out of the ordinary. The top level cards at the time will be pushing 6 Teraflops.

That's got one too may pie in the sky optimistic assumptions. Also, wasn't the latest leak for Sea Island an "educated" guess and not real specs?

I'll tell you this though, that'll not happen. I assume it'll be somewhere between 1.8TFlops (Just GPU) and 2.5Tflops.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Lol calm down...

I never mentioned 2013 in my post, i have always said March 2014 for PS4 in this thread.

I don't care how you spin it, PS4 isn't getting a 4TF GPU and it's not just to do with cost, its the power consumption, heat in a small console case, combined with the astronomical software development costs building games that push a 4TF GPU would bring.

A 2TF GPU, 4GB of Ram PS4 in March 2014 for $400 would be perfect.

Software development is going to go up but not by some huge amount .
Also in some ways having more power going to make things cheaper and pushing a 4TF GPU not going to break the bank.
Games are already made with assets way pass that and then you have Sony pushing for 3D .
I not saying that PS4 going to have a 4TF GPU but making games for it not going to cost 2 or 3 times more that it would a 2TF GPU .

 

[thuway]

That's got one too may pie in the sky optimistic assumptions. Also, wasn't the latest leak for Sea Island an "educated" guess and not real specs?

I'll tell you this though, that'll not happen. I assume it'll be somewhere between 1.8TFlops (Just GPU) and 2.5Tflops.

The only optimistic assumption is the numbers for the 8800 series. However, many credible sources are confirming it. We'll all know whats possible within two months anyway.

 

[magash]

Software development is going to go up but not by some huge amount .
Also in some ways having more power going to make things cheaper and pushing a 4TF GPU not going to break the bank.
Games are already made with assets way pass that and then you have Sony pushing for 3D .
I not saying that PS4 going to have a 4TF GPU but making games for not going to cost 2 or 3 times more that it would a 2TF GPU.

As things stand games are way too expensive to develop. Any increase in game development cost is likely to cause harm during the early years of next generation.

 

[i-Lo]

As things stand games are way too expensive to develop. Any increase in game development cost is likely to cause harm during the early years of next generation.

That's why as the hardware gets more powerful the middleware engines (excluding first party stuff) are being designed to instil features that were previously faked in some way or other that'd just eat up dev time, into real time deals. That and ease of use of dev tools will stabilize the price of development. Initial costs transitioning to next gen will definitely see a rise but not like the one that was seen from SD to HD generation especially now after the maturation of coding for it.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

As things stand games are way too expensive to develop. Any increase in game development cost is likely to cause harm during the early years of next generation.

Allot of that comes from mismanagement and whole bunch of other stuff that has nothing to do with how powerful these console going to be .
In fact i expect pubs going to love next gen , day one DD , more DLC , better tools \ middleware .

 

[thuway]

As things stand games are way too expensive to develop. Any increase in game development cost is likely to cause harm during the early years of next generation.

Games are expensive because of the tricks developer's have to implement to make a scene look real. Fake lighting, baking shadows, and lowering the quality of assets takes alot of time. Assets are created at a far higher quality than what is shown in game.

This is full quality shot of the assets in Gears of War. It should give you an idea of how much bastardization goes into making things fit into 512mb of memory with 500 gflops.

 

[Apophis2036]

Sigh, let's try this again.

Rumor-
8870 = 4 Teraflops @ 160 watts
8850 = 2.5 Teraflops @ 110 watts

The 9000 series will be 30% more efficient by default since it is switching to a 20nm process.

98XX = 4 Teraflops @ 112 watts (if 30% more efficient)

That's how I figure the 4 teraflop number. It's logical, and nothing out of the ordinary. The top level cards at the time will be pushing 6 Teraflops.

This whole 4TF GPU rumour started back yesterday when someone posted a site (that could be created by any of us in 15 mins) listing it in 'updated PS4 specs'.

I for one trust the OP leaked specs in this thread and think that Sony will go with a 2TF GPU at most and maybe be pushed into doubling the Ram to 4GB from 2GB.

You have to be pretty mad to suddenly think Sony have went from a 1.8TF GPU and 2GB of Ram to a 4TF GPU and 8+ GB's of Ram in a few months.

GTA 4 cost $100 million to create on a 250 GFLOP GPU, how much do you think triple A game development would cost pushing a 4TF GPU lol...

We're just going to have to agree to disagree.

My prediction is that we will see a 3Ghz 4 core AMD CPU / 2TF GPU / 4GB of Ram PS4 in shops by March 2014.

If they wait until late 2014 (giving Nintendo over two years of a head start and MS at least 9 months) and go with a 4TF GPU with much more Ram, i will bump this thread and apologise to you .

 

[KojiKnight]

Allot of that comes from mismanagement and whole bunch of other stuff that has nothing to do with how powerful these console going to be .
In fact i expect pubs going to love next gen , day one DD , more DLC , passes etc etc .

Publishers aren't the same thing as developers. Publishers will love the chance to chisel away big peices of game to sell as DLC no doubt... same as they love doing it for preorders. Retailers on the other hand aren't going to be as excited for this gen... but neither one of those things is here nor there when talking about developers.


Yes, the tool chains and middle ware coming out for the new hardware will make certain parts better and faster and help offset some of the increased costs, but there are other aspects that will continue to add to costs as things go on. No one is going to know for sure till a year or so after PS4/720 are out because initial next gen will definitely cost more... but once the smoke settles and we've had some SDK and development maturity we'll have a better idea.

 

[Donnie]

Ask yourself a question: Why was the PlayStation 3 $599?

It was stuffed full of exotic tech, and over-engineered decisions. The cell was expensive, XDR 2 was expensive, and Bluray was super expensive. Being conservative in 2014, will yield 4 Teraflops.

But PS3 wasn't just $599, it cost more like $800 each and cost even more when other aspects were included (shipping, packaging ect). Yes it was exotic tech, but you're talking about a console with as big or bigger leap in power costing half that to produce and I'm not sure that's anything like a dead cert. Maybe its better to look at XBox 360 which was less exotic (no blue-ray or CELL). Around $600 all in ($525 for the parts + shipping, packaging ect).

 

[KageMaru]

What? I buy all the home console's! I'm not one to limit myself in gaming. The only barrier is price...always has been and always will be.

You should assume less because you just look like an idiot! I'm excited for a new console after such a long generation...what's your issue with Wii U? Are you insecure?

I'll buy the Orbis and Durango...but MS/Sony can get stuffed if they go over a certain price.

EDIT: I just checked your profile...solo console owner...I should have known...

I just saw you make some cracks about the ps4, or maybe 720 as well, and yes assumed. With how people have been behaving around here, can you blame me? Also if by one console, you're talking about the ps360, then sure. but then you'd also be ignoring the two other systems I own =P so maybe you should take your own advice with assuming =)

 

[gundamkyoukai]

But PS3 wasn't just $599, it cost more like $800 each and cost even more when other costs were included (shipping, packaging ect). Yes it was exotic tech, but you're talking about a console with as big or bigger leap in power costing half that to produce.

Allot of that money had nothing to do with power 200 plus for blu ray drive ,PS2 backwards chip , die size bigger than they thought , to many ports etc etc
These new systems going to use off shelf parts that going to get cheaper faster along with mature parts.

 

[Donnie]

Games are expensive because of the tricks developer's have to implement to make a scene look real. Fake lighting, baking shadows, and lowering the quality of assets takes alot of time. Assets are created at a far higher quality than what is shown in game.

This is full quality shot of the assets in Gears of War. It should give you an idea of how much bastardization goes into making things fit into 512mb of memory with 500 gflops.

Not to be pedantic but just FYI 360 is nowhere near 500Gflops.

 

[Apophis2036]

But PS3 wasn't just $599, it cost more like $800 each and cost even more when other costs were included (shipping, packaging ect). Yes it was exotic tech, but you're talking about a console with as big or bigger leap in power costing half that to produce.

I've read several times on here PS3 was closer to $900 to manufacture at launch, they were losing around $300 per console sold.

Yet some people think they are going for a 20x power leap over PS3 rather than the 10x power leap over PS2..., i can't actually believe im reading it lol.

Some people should check out the last few Sony financial results, they will be going for the lowest possible loss on hardware at launch and want to be out within 3 months of the 720 so they aren't left behind again like this generation.

If they can get a 4TF GPU PS4 out for $400 in early 2014 without losing an insane amount of money per console sold then im all for it, i just don't think it will happen.

 

[Apophis2036]

Not to be pedantic but just FYI 360 is nowhere near 500Gflops.

The Xbox 360's GPU is 240 GFLOPS.

Also that Gears of War 'screenshot' looks more like a bull shot promo.

 

[Donnie]

Allot of that money had nothing to do with power 200 plus for blu ray drive ,PS2 backwards chip , die size bigger than they thought , to many ports etc etc
These new systems going to use off shelf parts that going to get cheaper faster .

But why assume any next gen system will be perfect? Also like I said we can look at the less exotic XBox 360 if you like.

Where did the idea come from that they'll use off the shelf parts BTW?

 

[i-Lo]

The Xbox 360's GPU is 240 GFLOPS.

Also that Gears of War 'screenshot' looks more like a bull shot promo.

But you're missing his point that that screen shows what great changes high res assets (the original assets) have to go through during optimization for it to fit it in 360 HW.

 

[Lulubop]

The only optimistic assumption is the numbers for the 8800 series. However, many credible sources are confirming it. We'll all know whats possible within two months anyway.

No they aren't.

 

[Donnie]

The Xbox 360's GPU is 240 GFLOPS.

Also that Gears of War 'screenshot' looks more like a bull shot promo.

Yeah I know, about 350Gflops if he's referring to the entire system.

 

[Kleegamefan]

But when PS4 and XBox 3 arrive the WiiU with its large userbase will be usurped and devs will suddenly decide to leave money off the table?

One thing that really hurts Nintendo is their lack of of transparency in terms of online support.

PSN and Live users will probably be willing to just wait it out for the PS4/XB3 because Nintendo have not yet given these customers a compelling reason to migrate to the WiiU.

PS360 fans invested YEARS in their gamer tags/psn ids and will not abandon that large investment unless Nintendo offers something at least as good, don't get it twisted...

For now, the biggest competition for Xbox Live and PSN are each other.....for Nintendo to capture these customers on a wide scale is much easier said than done.

Nintendo will get their customers, for sure, but AS OF RIGHT NOW they don't show anything that will clockblock the launch of the next generation consoles even if they are pushed back to 2014...

No, the biggest threat to Microsoft and Sony is if the WiiU, like the Wii before it, captures non-gaming customers on a very large scale with a compelling hook, like waggle. In other words it needs to be a revolution not an evolution to get both the bro gamer and soccer moms to not just stay with their wii balance boards or shoot other dudebros in the face via kinect.....

 

[KojiKnight]

One thing that really hurt Nintendo is their lack of of transparency in terms of online support.

PSN and Live users will probably be willing to just wait it out for the PS4/XB3 because Nintendo have not yet given these customers a compelling reason to migrate to the WiiU.

PS360 fans invested YEARS in their gamer tags/psn ids and will not abandon that large investment unless Nintendo offers something at least as good, don't get it twisted...

For now, the biggest competition for Xbox Live and PSN are each other.....for Nintendo to capture these customers on a wide scale is much easier said than done.

Nintendo will get their customers, for sure, but AS OF RIGHT NOW they don't show anything that will clockblock the launch of the next generation consoles even if they are pushed back to 2014...

No, the biggest threat to Microsoft and Sony is if the WiiU, like the Wii before it, captures non-gaming customers on a very large scale with a compelling hook, like waggle. In other words it needs to be a revolution not an evolution to get both the bro gamer and soccer moms to not just stay with their wii balance boards or shoot other dudebros in the face via kinect.....

<--- years invested into my "PSN ID", aside from my digital games which aren't going anywhere (they will forever be on my PS3/PSP/and eventually when I get a new one, vita as well). I'm not sure why people assume that if you buy a Wii U, that would mean you have to abandon your previous systems... or even the new sony/microsoft systems that come after. Especially if there is going to be up to 2 years between launches... I'm not sure about you, but even if I'm buying a couple games here and there, I'd still be able to save up another $300-400 in that time after getting my Wii U... or at that point I may even be willing to wait an additional year to see if those systems price drop at all and have a few more games under their belts.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

Yeah I know, about 350Gflops if he's referring to the entire system.

It was calculated quite a few pages back that Xenon is 76glops. So with 240glops with the GPU it be about 316gflops total for the whole system.

 

[mgcastro]

These supossedly postponed 2013 launches could imply that Sony and MS could have difficulties offering not only big graphical leaps in future consoles, but new hardware itself, due to the much longer cycles.

How could they compensate for, say 10 years without new hardware?(when Nintendo could potentially release hardware each 6 years). OS services?

</speculation>

 

[thuway]

These supossedly postponed 2013 launches could imply that Sony and MS could have difficulties offering not only big graphical leaps in future consoles, but new hardware itself, due to the much longer cycles.

How could they compensate for, say 10 years without new hardware?(when Nintendo could potentially release hardware each 6 years). OS services?

</speculation>

The later than 2013 launches are the only sensible way to have a myriad of advancements that do nothing but improve performance and yields. It's hard to justify a box without stacked RAM or a 8000 series card. Plain and simple.

 

[onQ123]

Well kind of silly to expect 4TFlops GPU. I mean really silly. At one time, the expectation was around 1.8 and now that more than doubled. In a single year, things are going to magically happen to make it that feasible especially when considering the target sale price, heat management and TDP.

Last year people was calling people crazy for talking about anything more than 2GB of Ram now MS is going for 8GB , people shut down my talk of 4K now there is reports of Sony supporting 4K with the PS4.

 

[thuway]

Last year people was calling people crazy for talking about anything more than 2GB of Ram now MS is going for 8GB , people shut down my talk of 4K now there is reports of Sony supporting 4K with the PS4.

There are way too many alarmists on GAF. There is this strange disdain that wants to cloud any sort of optimism regarding a high end machine. Honestly, we know next to nothing about the consoles other than a few pastbin articles and bullshit rumors. The only thing we know for certain is what Jeff and you have posted on GAF.

Logically, people don't want to read anything posted, and want to talk about how budgets will skyrocket with out doing any research.

 

[i-Lo]

Last year people was calling people crazy for talking about anything more than 2GB of Ram now MS is going for 8GB , people shut down my talk of 4K now there is reports of Sony supporting 4K with the PS4.

I think things would have stayed the same with RAM if MS was also going for 2GB. That disparity whipped most of us into frenzy and elevating out expectation for Sony have at least 4GB for having a chance to compete on more even ground.

The 4TFlop just for discrete GPU is an unrealistic expectation. Something close to it is perhaps agreeable as the whole sum of FLOPs for the entire system.

 

[KageMaru]

As things stand games are way too expensive to develop. Any increase in game development cost is likely to cause harm during the early years of next generation.

That's why there will be cross generational development for the first few years, just like every other generation. The ps2 was very profitable even 3 years into this generation, same thing with the ps1 last gen. Now we'll just see games developed on the ps360 along with the three next gen consoles.

It was calculated quite a few pages back that Xenon is 76glops. So with 240glops with the GPU it be about 316gflops total for the whole system.

I thought it was 115gflops, no?

Edit:

There are way too many alarmists on GAF. There is this strange disdain that wants to cloud any sort of optimism regarding a high end machine. Honestly, we know next to nothing about the consoles other than a few pastbin articles and bullshit rumors. The only thing we know for certain is what Jeff and you have posted on GAF.

Logically, people don't want to read anything posted, and want to talk about how budgets will skyrocket with out doing any research.

I really don't think this is the case. I think many of us much rather keep realistic expectations to just not get disappointed. What onq and Jeff post is interesting sometimes, but also too far reaching at other times. The whole 4K support campaign is a perfect example of this. No one is doubting that it will be "supported" but most of us know real games won't be running at that resolution.

 

[Kleegamefan]

<--- years invested into my "PSN ID", aside from my digital games which aren't going anywhere (they will forever be on my PS3/PSP/and eventually when I get a new one, vita as well). I'm not sure why people assume that if you buy a Wii U, that would mean you have to abandon your previous systems... or even the new sony/microsoft systems that come after. Especially if there is going to be up to 2 years between launches... I'm not sure about you, but even if I'm buying a couple games here and there, I'd still be able to save up another $300-400 in that time after getting my Wii U... or at that point I may even be willing to wait an additional year to see if those systems price drop at all and have a few more games under their belts.

Well the really big numbers are the single console households. They will not just buy this thing this year and then buy something similar the next year.....they will make their decision and then stay with that product throughout the generation (I also believe even a hardcore dudebro will stay with just one console more often than not)

The only way this will bite both Microsoft and Sony at the same time is if neither one says anything about their next console soon after WiiU ships... and you are HIGH if you don't think they will shout about Xbox 3 and PlayStation 4 at E3 2013...

 

[Hato-kun]

I dunno what the hell is going on, but thuway at least sounds like he knows his shit.

It's starting to make more and more sense to delay until 2014.

thuway is like, one of the wrongest people in here lol.

But he sounds so convincing.

 

[specialguy]

thuway is like, one of the wrongest people in here lol.

we arent going to get any of that crazy stuff, whether or not they delay until 2014 doesn't even matter. I promise you we're not getting exotic tech either way. It's way farther from practicality than armchair message boarders wish it to be.

If this type of tech isn't in $500 video cards even anytime soon, what makes people think the first place it's going to show up is a console?

There are some people who just WISH a lot of things would happen so they write a lot of posts making it seem like it is going to. Hell all GAF was saying Next box was launching in 2012 cause thats what they wanted, not that long ago. I told everybody 2013...

Now there are a lot of people predicting delays till 14. Unlike 2012 I dont think it's impossible, but 2013 is still pretty likely for BOTH.

 

[KojiKnight]

I think the confusion comes from the fact that originally no one thought Microsoft and Sony would wait till 2014 to launch... Now we have some evidence that implies possibly late 2014 for Sony and now things seem to be making a little more sense in that regard... at least in some ways that makes more sense.

There is a lot of risk to this strategy though, especially if their component costs don't drop as much as they expect them to in time for launch and they are stuck selling $450-600 dollar consoles.

 

[i-Lo]

But he sounds so convincing.

So does Bill O'Reilly, Pope, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Obama, Romney almost all politicians and religious figures who have no place for doubt.

That said, I am not comparing Thuway to them.

 

[KageMaru]

I think the confusion comes from the fact that originally no one thought Microsoft and Sony would wait till 2014 to launch... Now we have some evidence that implies possibly late 2014 for Sony and now things seem to be making a little more sense in that regard... at least in some ways that makes more sense.

There is a lot of risk to this strategy though, especially if their component costs don't drop as much as they expect them to in time for launch and they are stuck selling $450-600 dollar consoles.

Actually MS originally planned to wait until 2014, only when Nintendo announced the Wii-U did they push their plans up.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

I thought it was 115gflops, no?

Xenons has three VMX-128 units (this refers to the number of vector registers which is 128 as opposed to 32 IIRC in regular VMX, so 128x128 bits vs 32x128 bits... SPU's have a general purpose register file of 128x128 bits each).

So, 8 FP ops per cycle * 3.2 GHz * 3 = 76.8 GFLOPS on the CPU side of things.

You could also add some flops by the FPU unit (peak of 2 FP ops per cycle) in each of the Xenon cores and in the PPU (although I am not sure how much you would double issuing VMX instructions and FPU instructions, still...):

Xenon's new peak = 76.8 + (2 * 3.2 * 3) = 96 GFLOPS.

CELL CBE new peak = 211.2 GFLOPS.

Interestingly compared to 360's 316gflpps, PS3 has 430gflops(196 for cell, 250 for rsx). Although PS3 definitely does have some advantages with Cell vs Xenon, the systems are both pretty much equal while both having their strengths and weaknesses. Goes to show you that flops definitely are not everything.

 

[Elios83]

thuway is like, one of the wrongest people in here lol.

we arent going to get any of that crazy stuff, whether or not they delay until 2014 doesn't even matter. I promise you we're not getting exotic tech either way. It's way farther from practicality than armchair message boarders wish it to be.

If this type of tech isn't in $500 video cards even anytime soon, what makes people think the first place it's going to show up is a console?

There are some people who just WISH a lot of things would happen so they write a lot of posts making it seem like it is going to. Hell all GAF was saying Next box was launching in 2012 cause thats what they wanted, not that long ago. I told everybody 2013...

Now there are a lot of people predicting delays till 14. Unlike 2012 I dont think it's impossible, but 2013 is still pretty likely for BOTH.

Indeed I also think that a few people are getting really crazy with all this (mostly made up) speculation while others simply wish that unproven and not feasible technologies are implemented in consoles no matter what (delays until the end of 2014, 500$ consoles with companies losing money on them...).
My guess is that both X720 and PS4 will be out between fall 2013 and spring 2014 everywhere, 4GB of RAM is a must have considering the non-gaming applications and multitasking level which both the companies will look for, a 2 Teraflops GPU and new controllers, entry price at 399$.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

if they fix bottom triggers = perfect controller

What needs fixing? I think they're great. The D-pad is where I'd like to see some engineering done. I have a hard time consistently nailing diagonals in VF5, especially double taps.

 

[Hato-kun]

So does Bill O'Reilly, Pope, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Obama, Romney almost all politicians and religious figures who have no place for doubt.

That said, I am not comparing Thuway to them.

I seriously only know who The Pope, Obama and Romney is. And Romney doesn't sound at all convincing.

I'll just back out of this thread.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

Indeed I also think that a few people are getting really crazy with all this (mostly made up) speculation while others simply wish that unproven and not feasible technologies are implemented in consoles no matter what (delays until the end of 2014, 500$ consoles with companies losing money on them...).
My guess is that both X720 and PS4 will be out between fall 2013 and spring 2014 everywhere, 4GB of RAM is a must have considering the non-gaming applications and multitasking level which both the companies will look for, a 2 Teraflops GPU and new controllers, entry price at 399$.

thuway is like, one of the wrongest people in here lol.

we arent going to get any of that crazy stuff, whether or not they delay until 2014 doesn't even matter. I promise you we're not getting exotic tech either way. It's way farther from practicality than armchair message boarders wish it to be.

If this type of tech isn't in $500 video cards even anytime soon, what makes people think the first place it's going to show up is a console?

There are some people who just WISH a lot of things would happen so they write a lot of posts making it seem like it is going to. Hell all GAF was saying Next box was launching in 2012 cause thats what they wanted, not that long ago. I told everybody 2013...

Now there are a lot of people predicting delays till 14. Unlike 2012 I dont think it's impossible, but 2013 is still pretty likely for BOTH.

No but its very probable that it'll be something similar to that 8850 2.5tflop GPU. Which is a lot more efficient than a 2.5tflop 7xxx gpu. If a delay to 2014 is needed to secure a gpu similar to this in order to be profitable its definitely worth it. Also 2014 is also probably necessary to make stacked memory possible.

$500 BOM with a $400 price tag is very possible. A $100 loss to start, with the console being profitable after 1-2 years is a huge improvement over the $300 loss with PS3, which took 3-4 yrs to turn profitable.

 

[teh_pwn]

If double the power means developers go bankrupt, bring it. Dumbfuck companies will die while sensible ones will just up IQ when it's not economically feasible to use the hardware.

 

[thuway]

thuway is like, one of the wrongest people in here lol.

we arent going to get any of that crazy stuff, whether or not they delay until 2014 doesn't even matter. I promise you we're not getting exotic tech either way. It's way farther from practicality than armchair message boarders wish it to be.

If this type of tech isn't in $500 video cards even anytime soon, what makes people think the first place it's going to show up is a console?

There are some people who just WISH a lot of things would happen so they write a lot of posts making it seem like it is going to. Hell all GAF was saying Next box was launching in 2012 cause thats what they wanted, not that long ago. I told everybody 2013...

Now there are a lot of people predicting delays till 14. Unlike 2012 I dont think it's impossible, but 2013 is still pretty likely for BOTH.

Really? The 4 teraflop GPU is being optimistic, unless they go with 9000 series tech, however, let's talk about memory.

Microsoft recently joined the HMC consortium.
There are papers by major vendors that have explicitly stated 2.5D RAM will be used in next-gen consoles.
Samsung leaving the GDDR5 business would only mean more expensive RAM .
DDR4 becomes available in mass quantities somewhere in the middle of 2013, with cheaper prices by 2014. Compared to GDDR5 it is far cheaper and cooler.


Yeah, let's just ignore the billions we can save on RAM because we want to launch in 2013.


Also the 4 teraflop number comes from the entire system. The GPU can easily be 2.5 teraflops to 3 teraflops. The rest of the system can make up for it.

 

[KageMaru]

Interestingly compared to 360's 316gflpps, PS3 has 430gflops(196 for cell, 250 for rsx). Although PS3 definitely does have some advantages with Cell vs Xenon, the systems are both pretty much equal while both having their strengths and weaknesses. Goes to show you that flops definitely are not everything.

Hey thanks. =)

What needs fixing? I think they're great. The D-pad is where I'd like to see some engineering done. I have a hard time consistently nailing diagonals in VF5, especially double taps.

My biggest hope is that these controllers are bigger. I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii-U has the most comfortable controller for bigger guys like me =P

 

[onQ123]

By the way Gran Turismo 5 is being shown in 4K this mouth at Sony's Ginza building in Tokyo.

I have a feeling that we will see a GT 4K on PS4.