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538: Clinton and Trump are losing a lot of young voters

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Young people are such a disappointment when it comes to voting. They were able to come out in droves for Obama, but God help us if you want them to give a shit about midterms and other local elections.
 
If "racist" means holding white people to task for building their entire civilization around racial oppression, I am the most racist motherfucker alive.

It means judging people by the color of their skin, and yes I agree you probably are.
 
It means judging people by the color of their skin, and yes I agree you probably are.

Judging people as a collective and as individuals are very different beasts. Statistically, Trump (had, at least by one poll a month or so ago) the majority of the white vote. Slim sure, but that still means you're allowed to call out this general trend, that some sort of majority of white Americans support a candidate with bigoted views.

If a dude goes down a street, see's a white guy, and thinks "I bet he's a racist Trump voter", sure, that's judgy as hell. But the position of hating Clinton so much to vote third party in the American system is a decidedly white position to have. Because minorities know a third party vote isn't gonna get anyone in office, it'll just make it more likely a racist is made the President of the United States, and they can't afford that.
 
WhateverItTakes, that's a much more nuanced point and I appreciate you elaborating. That said I just don't appreciate immediately labelling (anonymous online posters) as a particular race due to their political opinions. It feels like a sweeping generalization to me. Cheers.
 

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Banned
WhateverItTakes, that's a much more nuanced point and I appreciate you elaborating. That said I just don't appreciate immediately labelling (anonymous online posters) as a particular race due to their political opinions. It feels like a sweeping generalization to me. Cheers.

Then are you comfortable sharing with me, an anonymous online poster, which race you yourself identify as?

"Not all white people" isn't the point. It's that it's effectively ONLY white people.
 
I'm technically a "millennial", and I don't want to come off all "those damn kids these days", but a lot of the younger voters I've spoken to have been...well, deeply frustrating.

There's definitely a "letting the perfect be the enemy of the good" problem, along with a certain tendency towards absolutism and a degree of magical thinking - ie. "if we want/believe in X hard enough and refuse to compromise, we'll get what we want". I often see people, when confronted with aspects of how the system works, complain "It shouldn't be that way".

Sure, but it is. If you want to work to change that, great, but in the meantime, you have to deal with reality. Wanting things to be a different way means precisely nothing. Refusing to engage with the system because it's imperfect just means that people more motivated than you get to set the agenda, and chances are pretty good you're not gonna like what they choose.
 

dabig2

Member
Warren hasn't had 30 years of dumb attacks launched at her.

Right. But the point is that it's not because young men are afraid of powerful women in leadership positions, but it's young people (girls and boys) that just aren't connecting with Hillary due to a variety of things. One of those things is that she lacks the charisma to entice younger folks. She's no Bill and definitely no Obama nor even a Sanders who has that angry, fiery demeanor to him nor does she have the folksy progressive charm of Warren. And she's definitely not a living meme like Biden. And when it comes to the issues themselves she's also more strict on drugs, free education, and has a more aggressive foreign policy. All of those things aren't going to make the young folks very enthusiastic. They'll commit eventually, but the contrast between Hillary and Sanders, Warren, etc. is a bit more deep than just the fact that she's an old woman.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Give 'em time:
KeisaChart1_592_370.png


even if this particular study's data handling was stupid
 

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Right. But the point is that it's not because young men are afraid of powerful women in leadership positions, but it's young people (girls and boys) that just aren't connecting with Hillary due to a variety of things. One of those things is that she lacks the charisma to entice younger folks. She's no Bill and definitely no Obama nor even a Sanders who has that angry, fiery demeanor to him nor does she have the folksy progressive charm of Warren. And she's definitely not a living meme like Biden. And when it comes to the issues themselves she's also more strict on drugs, free education, and has a more aggressive foreign policy. All of those things aren't going to make the young folks very enthusiastic. They'll commit eventually, but the contrast between Hillary and Sanders, Warren, etc. is a bit more deep than just the fact that she's an old woman.

I dunno. I think the woman as President thing goes deeper. It's not the end all be all, but its lack or precedent is a huge factor and shouldn't be discounted. Of course there are other, more sagacious reasons for disliking Hillary, and gender should by no means used to undercut those concerns. But the fact is we all grew up without a woman running things, and so for most of us the closest analogue to a woman with ultimate power is a mother-- towards whom the rebellion instinct first kicked in as we gained self-awareness and autonomy.

Sure, we could say we prefer Warren, but many of us only became aware of Warren as adults, while Clinton has been in the limelight for a good chunk of if not all of our lives. There's a developmental correlation that influences men's opinions.
 
Warren also never actually ran for president and is held up as the ideal "could-have-been" without getting dragged through the mud and having to engage in a messy primary fight. See: Cuomo in 1992, Kennedy in 1980 (his luster as a presidential candidate was more that he was a Kennedy and not Carter rather than a deep love of him, and actually going through the primary killed those chances), as well as the current trend of both saying that Kasich/Rubio would be crushing Hillary right now (they've suffered no attacks in the general election) and comments about how much Biden would be killing it.

tbh I don't quite get the obsession with Warren for prez, I don't have a problem with her but she seems pretty comfortable in her place as an opponent of banks/big business in the Senate rather than a leader the way the president has to be. For foreign policy in particular she seems pretty detached and that's the area a president has the most power over. It's probably better to have her drafting banking regulations or something that Clinton can sign than detaching her from the senate.
 
Right. But the point is that it's not because young men are afraid of powerful women in leadership positions, but it's young people (girls and boys) that just aren't connecting with Hillary due to a variety of things. One of those things is that she lacks the charisma to entice younger folks. She's no Bill and definitely no Obama nor even a Sanders who has that angry, fiery demeanor to him nor does she have the folksy progressive charm of Warren. And she's definitely not a living meme like Biden. And when it comes to the issues themselves she's also more strict on drugs, free education, and has a more aggressive foreign policy. All of those things aren't going to make the young folks very enthusiastic. They'll commit eventually, but the contrast between Hillary and Sanders, Warren, etc. is a bit more deep than just the fact that she's an old woman.
Clinton was fairly popular before she attempted to run for President. So it isn't that people do not connect with her, or that she doesn't excite people. She clearly does and has and the most defining reason why people are less enthusiastic about her now rests almost entirely with Republicans.

And further, I think it's important to note that she mainly failed to capture the vote of the white youth. It's a distinction that deserves repeating.

 

Maledict

Member
To be fair Warren hasn't voted consistently in favor of war for 30 straight years like Hillary managed to do in 12 years of being a Senator.

Hillary was a senator for 8 years ffs. If you are going to propogate this utter nonsense at least get your dates right.
 

G.ZZZ

Member
This platform is what you're voting for when you vote for Hillary. I honestly have no idea how any liberal youth can read through that and go, "Nope, I don't want that because Hillary shouldn't be in office."

Almost any left-wing governement party platform is amazing on paper. If you ever voted before, you should know. Here in Europe, left wings parties come out with much more progressive platforms, and when in office, you see the usual "decrease workers rights, decrease regulations, cut funding for healthcare and education" shit that we've been seeing in general the last 20 years. Being a right wing economical party with better civil rights policies isn't what people really want from the left. They want also an economical change, and not a worsening of education, healthcare and economics of poor people in general.

All the major parties campaign on the same shit "we'll actually care about you" and then they don't. Better civil rights for minorities and immigrants shouldn't be used a bargaining chip for all the other social and economical issues. That's not only frustrating for people who believe society should help everyone and not only the richs, but also divisive and promote tensions betweens the lower classes. Which, sadly, it's a method for keeping stability as old as government itself.
 
They want also an economical change, and not a worsening of education, healthcare and economics of poor people in general.

Cool. Then they should get to work making that happen instead of expecting that voting in presidential elections is sufficient.

Moreover, that's really only relevant if they believe Trump and Clinton will be equally bad for lower-income people. If they believe that Clinton would be even a LITTLE bit less bad than Trump, then refusing to vote for her out of some sense of moral purity or indignation is essentially valuing that self-satisfaction over the lives of the people they're claiming to be concerned for.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The Medicaid Expansion being optional is the most obvious thing I can think of. To my knowledge Sanders wasn't really all that enthusiastic about immigration reform, so something like DAPA probably wasn't on the minds of Sanders voters at all, but if they're all mad about Citizens United that's another obvious consequence of not caring about SCOTUS.

Sadly, I think even quite a liberal court would have blocked Medicaid - it was 7 to 2 with only Sotomayer and Ginsburg dissenting. Garland would almost certainly have been in the majority rather than the dissent, so even a hypothetical full-throttle liberal Clinton court (which will never happen because Clinton is hopelessly small-c conservative and will probably appoint another batch of Garlands rather than push her advantage) would not have had enough Ginsburgs to get it through.

Citizens United is certainly the first (important) economic issue to hang in the balance as far as the SC is concerned in some time, although even that said it is very indirectly economic; removing Super PACs is important but in the long-run a tiny drop in the ocean of money in American politics.
 
I'm 98% in agreement with Jill Stein so as long as Hillary has a commanding lead in my state I'll vote for her. If the election is somehow close, I'll vote for Hillary.
 

dabig2

Member
Sure, we could say we prefer Warren, but many of us only became aware of Warren as adults, while Clinton has been in the limelight for a good chunk of if not all of our lives. There's a developmental correlation that influences men's opinions.

Maybe so, but now we're getting into clinical psychology arguments and I would love to see legitimate data on this before making such an observation. Hillary's issue is that if she's perceived as a no-fun mom then it's because her policies and views typically ARE that of a no-fun allowed mom to a more hungry, pessimistic, and energetic youth cohort. Cause and effect.

Clinton was fairly popular before she attempted to run for President. So it isn't that people do not connect with her, or that she doesn't excite people. She clearly does and has and the most defining reason why people are less enthusiastic about her now rests almost entirely with Republicans.

And further, I think it's important to note that she mainly failed to capture the vote of the white youth. It's a distinction that deserves repeating.

Yes, she was popular before she ran. The world was very different then though. We were suffering the dark days of Dubya and liberal pride was low. The very word 'liberal' was a slur and Hillary was one of the few bright beacons of progressive ideals then. Things changed drastically after '08 and the Great Recession. Merely being progressive isn't enough for a lot of young folks. They want and demand certain things that weren't even on the progressive radar a decade ago.

In terms of her support among minorities, I still put that down to name recognition and familiarity. She's a tried-and-true commodity and she provides assurances for those who can't be over idealistic. But even in that graph the young folk trail the older folk, and if you were to separate the ages into the 18-30 range I think it would show even more of a disparity (but still in Clinton's advantage).

Didn't the kids try to shout her down during her DNC speech?

They were an extreme minority of a minority and I saw plenty of over 30s in that group. It wasn't just a bunch of angry kids. Elizabeth Warren still has great favorability margins among the 18-30 Dem crowd (and overall). And yes, her short time in the sun helps since there's less dirt on her and she hasn't had enough opportunity to disappoint and ruin a person's ideal of what they want her to be. Not arguing against that. But that's not really a gender thing. Obama found that out in 2010 the hard way.
 
I'd be surprised if this is just 18-29 year olds. Anyone know what the ratios are for 30-50 years olds? It may be a bit higher for the top two candidates vs. throwing Johnson and Stein in there, mostly because those of us who are older have voted in enough of these that we know the Libertarian and Green parties are just wasted votes.

But yeah, Hillary is probably the most divisive candidate the Dems could put out there, and she'd likely be in a bloody battle if the GOP had nominated anyone even remotely interesting or somewhat moderate. Romney would be making this a nail biter.

Then you have Trump, who is easily the worst candidate to have ever won a party's nomination. I'm not sure whom he could beat, but it won't be Hillary.

Not surprised that young voters (and likely older ones as well) are finding this whole election to be horrible.
 
We can, really. How am I wrong? Right now we have friendly relations with most European countries, as well as key countries that we've not had friendly ties with in decades, such as Iran and Cuba. As well as continued indirect support to key middle eastern battling ISIS cells. Again, how am I wrong? Be specific. Because if you think foreign relations are 'horrible' now, then you clearly have no idea what foreign relations were like pre-Obama in the US.



...What? Half of this sentence completely contradicts the other half.
Obama did screw up Iraq pretty badly

Also in relation to that he took way too long to take action on IS
 
While first lady, Hillary was the least liked of the last four....and by quite a margin. You can't just "make" people like you, and then blame her current numbers on "dumb attacks".

....

You know why right?

...

She was the first to want to really be politically active, she wanted to champion healthcare reform...
 

Not

Banned
She said she didn't want to stay home and make cookies and she instantly became public enemy #1 for the 90's "family values" people.
 
She said she didn't want to stay home and make cookies and she instantly became public enemy #1 for the 90's "family values" people.

I was just about to say the same. In fact, her quote about that is the reason why they have the whole Family Circle First Lady (well now First Spouse I guess) Cookie Recipe contest during the presidential election.
 
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