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[Vashetti]

Could Sony be releasing its next-gen PlayStation in 2018? That's the notion put forward by Maquarie Capital Securities analyst Damian Thong, cited in a recent edition of The Wall Street Journal. But is the time right to replace PlayStation 4? And what kind of hardware could Sony conceivably deliver next year?

First up, it's worth pointing out that Thong is credited with predicting PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro, making him a creditable source. However, a comprehensive look through Google's news archive doesn't appear to show any prediction for the Pro that predates Kotaku's initial PlayStation 4.5 exclusive.

We can add some additional flavour to the speculation as we spoke to PlayStation system architect Mark Cerny last year, where he was very specific about how PS4 Pro was not a next-gen console, sharing with us the criteria he has for what constitutes a new console generation. Games hardware is years in the making - work on PS4 began in 2008 - so we can safely assume that his words do have some bearing on what to expect from the next PlayStation, which is almost certainly in the works now, even if a 2018 launch does seem unlikely.

"Each new generation brings with it a new set of capabilities: CPUs, GPUs and the like but also controllers and new types of display devices. If you go back to the 1970s, it was colour TV. That was the new display device," Cerny told us. "These capabilities unlock new potential for the type of games that can be created. For example, increased CPU power might not seem like a game-changer but it actually allows for much better enemy AI, more enemy characters, better world simulation and a whole host of other evolutions in the game experience."

Looking back over our conversation, Cerny laid out what he considered necessary for a new console generation. He discussed a move to a new CPU architecture (retaining x86 CPU architecture as a possibility, albeit one that still poses compatibility issues with existing PS4 games), increased graphics capability, significantly more memory, the IO required to feed it, along with the sheer mass storage required to house these advanced new titles.

But to cut to the chase - by the criteria he laid down, is a new PlayStation in 2018 technically feasible? In theory, yes. But would the resulting console deliver the generational leap he describes above? That's less clear. Elsewhere, Cerny has discussed the notion of an eight teraflop console required for native 4K gaming, and that's an interesting figure to put out there, because such a machine could conceivably be built for a late 2018 launch. But the question remains as to whether this is enough to kickstart a new console generation. Higher resolution versions of existing games doesn't really constitute the "breakthrough experiences" Cerny associates with next-gen hardware.

But let's look at the evidence for a viable console on a per-component basis. First up, the CPU architecture issue can be addressed easily enough - AMD has its new Ryzen processor line out now and a version of this architecture will be repurposed for its all-in-one APUs, meaning that the core technology (a version of Ryzen integrated with Radeon graphics technology in a single chip) almost certainly exists in the here and now.

The next point concerns the configuration of the GPU, which ties in very closely with the process technology that would be used for the next PlayStation processor. Realistically, a 2018 console would still be using TSMC's 16nm FinFET technology - as used in PS4 Pro and Project Scorpio. The larger the graphics component of the chip, the more powerful it will be, but this makes the chip larger, more difficult to produce and more expensive. PS4 Pro achieves 4.2 teraflops with a processor using a chip in the region of 310-320mm2. Microsoft's Scorpio chip is 360mm2 but uses innovative technology to increase clock-speeds to hit its six teraflops.

A PlayStation 5 processor can afford to be larger, but not that much larger than Scorpio's, if we're remaining on the 16nmFF node. Mark Cerny's notional eight teraflop GPU seems like the realistic limit for a console processor under these conditions. The issue here is that this would only represent a 4.2x improvement over the base PlayStation 4 and a 1.9x boost over PS4 Pro.

Much more:

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-could-sony-release-ps5-in-2018-in-theory

 

[ShaggsMagoo]

I would fully welcome a return to the 5-6 year console cycle. The 7-8 years of last gen was just too long.

 

[dex3108]

I would fully welcome a return to the 5-6 year console cycle. The 7-8 years of last gen was just too long.

I have yet to see any 1st party games that hit the limits of new hardware to be honest. Yeah it would be nice to play all games at 4K/60 or even 1080p/60 but i still don't think that resolution/framerate is not that important for casual players.

 

[ExoSoul]

The PS4/-Pro hasn't even teethed

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Don't see PS5 coming out until we get another die shrink .

 

[Atheerios]

I think we will get to a point that only Sony will maintain the classical concept of console generations.

Nintendo does their own thing and Microsoft wants something "evolutionary".

Those days of a new console gen starting across 2 to 3 years with all manufacturers announcing their hardware are E3 are long gone.

 

[Vashetti]

The PS4/-Pro hasn't even teethed

Yes, IMO it's far too early.

Wait till 2020 for a proper generational leap.

 

[hemo memo]

So PS4 Pro+? What's the point of numbers if it's a not a significant upgrade?

 

[Feep]

I don't really know of anyone suffering from PS4 fatigue; it has at least three more good years in it, I think.

Article seems way off base.

 

[Kyoufu]

I would fully welcome a return to the 5-6 year console cycle. The 7-8 years of last gen was just too long.

I wouldn't. Some developers have yet to ship two games. Some haven't shipped any. Development times increase so a 5 year generation is just too short for me.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

In theory, I could become a billionaire in 2018

 

[mrklaw]

No - ridiculous considering the pro hasn't been out for a year yet

We need a node shrink at minimum which would point to 2019 at the earliest IMO

I realise the commercial realities makes it unlikely, but I'd like to see what could be done with a discrete CPU/GPU. AMD seem quite some way behind Nvidia in terms of performance per watt, and performance per mm2 so an Nvidia GPU would be more powerful and generate less heat for a similar die size. But Nvidia don't seem that bothered about APUs except for mobile applications like tegra which would be underpowered. Plus both Sony and MS have had fingers burnt so may not be interested in working with them

 

[Ombala]

So PS4 Pro+? What's the point of numbers if it's a not a significant upgrade?

This. Better to wait longer until we can have more powerful hardware for 399$.

 

[Sölf]

I bought a PS 4 Pro just a few weeks ago. Please let me hold onto this until 2020.

 

[spekkeh]

I'm not going to buy it if they release one. In fact it would turn me off the PlayStation brand pretty badly. PS4 only just started getting some decent games. Power is increasingly meaningless for me.

 

[newbong95]

During last gen aaa dev time would range from 2-3 years and we got 7 year cycle . Naughty dog put out 4games , rockstar - 3/4 . Contrast this gen where dev times have increased to 4/5 years and now we probably getting a new console after 5 years .... seems a bit odd where only 1 game from naughty dog .. 1 from rockstar ... feels like not much going on this gen compared to last ....

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Cool insight once again from Leadbetter. I can't see any legit point in favor of a PS5 release in 2018, it's absurd in every way. November 2019 it is.

 

[disappeared]

It's a simple case of "well what's the competition up to?" given Scorpio dropping this fall.

 

[Aztechnology]

 

[Monty Mole]

I don't really know of anyone suffering from PS4 fatigue; it has at least three more good years in it, I think.

Article seems way off base.

Yeah. Horizon on PS4 Pro constantly knocks my socks off. I'm not clamouring for a new generation any time soon, given just how incredible games are looking already in every way, especially on my OLED.

But for VR to be a thing, we definitely need more powerful console hardware, so I expect the next generation will be developed with that in mind.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

I don't see the need for a new generation of systems until late 2019 at the earliest. Many franchises and developers haven't even shown up on current gen yet, and development times are ballooning.

No doubt there's still more to squeeze out of the current crop of hardware.

 

[SolidChamp]

I've been super happy with my PS4 (Pro) since the very beginning of the life cycle and I'm in no hurry to see another one so soon. I would be fine with a PS5 in 2019.

 

[Tyaren]

I'm still thinking, especially after the mid gen refresh of Pro and Scorpio, that a late 2019/early 2020 release of the PS5 is more likely and would make sense.

 

[Hyun Sai]

I wouldn't. Some developers have yet to ship two games. Some haven't shipped any. Development times increase so a 5 year generation is just too short for me.

This.

 

[mindsale]

I welcome an iterative stage with the Pro and Scorpio that actually utilize the added horsepower. If a new gen comes before anything makes those systems hum, what a waste.

Edit: Autocorrect changed iterative to interactive.

 

[Gearless]

I don't think we'll see a PS5 in 2018. I doubt Sony would want to release something that will only be a better than the Scorpio (the tech to fully surpassed console wise isn't there yet) in 2018. They would want to release a console that totally eclipses the 8th Generation consoles.

 

[brawly]

You don't kill a product that's on its way to sell +100 million.

 

[Aostia]

I have yet to see any 1st party games that hit the limits of new hardware to be honest. Yeah it would be nice to play all games at 4K/60 or even 1080p/60 but i still don't think that resolution/framerate is not that important for casual players.

How can we know that?

 

[MilkBeard]

You don't kill a product that's on its way to sell +100 million.

Yup.

And I'd rather not see a successor until 2019, at the earliest.

 

[2+2=5]

Honestly i have never seen the ps4 pro as a long term investment but more of a mid-life bridge between the ps4 and the ps5, people can't seriously expect the ps4pro to have the same long life of a base console or the ps5 to be a full generation leap with the ps4pro, the point of the ps4pro is to have an updated hardware, if it stays too long it becomes old, if this generation lasts very long i can even see a ps4pro2 but in any case the ps5 will eventually come, especially because sony won't let Scorpio be the power leader for too long, i can totally see the ps5(or the ps4pro2) being announced in late 2018.

 

[biglittleps]

Sony don't need PS5 as PS4/Pro is capable machines for another 2 years, so I expect PS5 in 2019/20.

 

[Taker666]

I can see Sony and Microsoft both really wanting the "most powerful console" crown next gen...and both will be wary of pulling the trigger to launch until they know they'll take that crown...

..so I think 2018 is unlikely ...unless Scorpio starts to eat a big chunk of market share.

I think this gen could be a long one as neither company will want to blink first when it comes to launching full next gen hardware.

 

[Breakage]

Sony should at least let the PS4 get close to the 100 million mark. It can easily last until 2020. PS5 next year is an awful idea.

 

[Tecnniqe]

A new console release every year you might as well stop getting them and invest in a longer cycle computer.

 

[camac002]

I don't really know of anyone suffering from PS4 fatigue; it has at least three more good years in it, I think.

Article seems way off base.

DF are only analysing that prediction, they aren't pushing the idea. They pretty much agree with Cerny and 2019+.

 

[Backfoggen]

The GPU bump over PS4 Pro/Scorpio would be tiny. Bring out a console when we can get a big jump in fidelity at mostly native 4k.

 

[Jonnax]

It needs to be a leap. I don't see much on the tech landscape currently that feels like it'd be a generational leap.

 

[Coxy100]

can't see it myself - too soon after Pro.

2019 maybe. PS4 is still doing strong - no need to do it in 2018.

 

[michaelius]

Don't see PS5 coming out until we get another die shrink .

yep - they need to hit at least PS4 Pro x2 power and that's not gonna happen without die shrink to keep die size sane.

 

[hemo memo]

I wouldn't. Some developers have yet to ship two games. Some haven't shipped any. Development times increase so a 5 year generation is just too short for me.

They should atleast wait for a new GTA. Big games barely finish in 3 years.

 

[jsnepo]

The PS4 still has plenty of juice to squeeze out of it so I'm good without a PS5 soon. To be honest, I still think the PS3 could've stayed longer.

 

[Atolm]

Without a die shrink there's no point.

 

[Harlequin]

No video? Man, I don't feel like reading. #illiterate

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

I think PS5 will be late 2019, early 2020. PS4 is still selling very well and they still have a big lead in sales over the competition, so they have no real need to push out another new console right now, not even Microsoft releasing Scorpio will change that.

 

[JaffeLion]

why should they?

 

[Jack The Nipper]

2018 is fine but needs tech on the high end.


Obviously pro and Scorpio aren't going to be doing amazing things at 4k imo

No reason to wait 7 to 8 years to catch up to technology advancements with hardware from 2013 holding back your games.

Many say it's too early but most will forget this when new hardware and games are brewing excitement. We see this time after time and even feel more were disappointed in the lack of cpu upgrades and gen defining figures as the Scorpio specs were shown.


It has to have emphasis on cpu, physics and bc though

 

[Nev]

Ridiculous.

"I welcome 5 years cycles, more is too long"

So, instead of an unified platform with a big installed base and developers focusing efforts on that one platform you want to try and sabotage the success of the PS4 with a product nobody is asking for. And all because of what? Slightly better graphics?

Thank god these people aren't in charge, jesus. They tend to be the ones that don't even play that much, they just want their shiny hardware.

 

[Akhe]

No, but I don't doubt anything anymore. A life cycle of 6~7 years is ideal for me.

 

[nelsonroyale]

This would be a silly move, given the recent release of the Pro and also the fact that it wouldn't be a transformative upgrade even over the base PS4...I feel as if PS4 itself is barely mid gen. With the release of stuff like Horizon, I feel it is just hitting its stride visually and has more to give...To cut to the chase, I feel tech needs quite a big upgrade to give a significant qualitatively more impressive experience.

I am guessing 2019 at the earliest, and perhaps even 2020.

 

[yurinka]

If Sony wants they can release a PS5 and PS6 in 2018, but they won't because it wouldn't make sense to release this year.

They recently released the Slim & Pro so they won't boycott the PS4 success with a PS5, a PS5 in 2018 would be too expensive (over $400) and wouldn't achive a decent enough leap in terms of horsepower to justify it.

I'm pretty sure they will release a full BC PS5 in 2020, or in late 2019 if they want to rush. PlayStation consoles don't have 5 years long cycles, they have way longer ones, and are overlapped with the release of their next consoles to maximize their profit and amount of consoles and games sold. AAA developments keep getting longer and longer, so a 5 years gen would mean some of them wouldn't even be able to release a single game this generation, which is stupid. They should be given enough time to release at least a couple of games.

Sony doesn't give a shit about Scorpio or Switch, because they are way more successful with PS4, have a huge market share and install base compared to them. To release a PS5 now would be dumb because they would start from scratch and wouldn't have all this market lead they already have.