gundamkyoukai
Member
I won't say the last one is so cut and dry at least for MS and Sony .
As we can see if your games don't perform to certain level you going to get cut .
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Epic: About 1/3rd as many AAA games in dev this gen, but each with 3 times the budget
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I won't say the last one is so cut and dry at least for MS and Sony .
As we can see if your games don't perform to certain level you going to get cut .
Woffls
Member
This generation will be about the middle ground. It will be about $20-$30 games that we buy digitally... games that are suitably ambitious and full of ideas, but have the weight of a studio behind it to push up the value using shared resources from bigger projects.
Some publishers will give bigger budgets to big franchises, and they will get burned more often and more brutally than ever before. Some have already downsized, and presumably they did so knowing that the stakes were too high, and hoped that new platforms would facilitate a middle ground.
I think the only thing that has kept this from happening in the last decade anywhere but the PC is the sheer cost of getting a console game onto someone's TV. Indie titles have generally increased in price, and value, recently, and boxed games are going bomba all around. It just feels like the middle ground is where we're going.
Some publishers will give bigger budgets to big franchises, and they will get burned more often and more brutally than ever before. Some have already downsized, and presumably they did so knowing that the stakes were too high, and hoped that new platforms would facilitate a middle ground.
I think the only thing that has kept this from happening in the last decade anywhere but the PC is the sheer cost of getting a console game onto someone's TV. Indie titles have generally increased in price, and value, recently, and boxed games are going bomba all around. It just feels like the middle ground is where we're going.
entremet
Member
I would agree there. MS has been more cutthroat. Sony has generally had a policy of funding a variety of games. As development has gotten more expensive they've shed some fat as well.
ShockingAlberto
Member
A game which very clearly hit logistical limits, to be fair.
There were some cut corners with sidequests and game content that probably would not have been the case if the budget and time were not spent elsewhere.
Given the amount of IPs and money the dinosaurs are sitting on, I doubt this. We will see market concentration. Well, its already happening.
Freeman
Banned
Those aren't mid tier, they are B movies, shameless rip offs. We have those in games as well, like Unearthed. Hollywood has movies ranging all the way from $200+ budgets blockbuster to $20~10m or less movies aimed at awards.Hollywood has a mid tier, it's those direct to video knock offs of major motion pictures.
Would you settle for a AA market akin to this? I'm being serious here. These are relatively cheap and profitable.
If you only paid attention to the top tier franchises, of you course you won't see a difference. Those games remain. Its all the other stuff that used to be sold at retail that's gone.
Go into a Best Buy and look at the gaming department. The entire section is half the size it was at the height of last gen. PC gaming has as much shelf space as Nintendo now.
Freeman
Banned
Aren't third party starting to go the same way tho? Most EA games use the same engine now, consoles have a much similar architecture now that is in turn similar to PC.
There is probably less risk for first-party studios, since they don't need to dominate the market to justify their existence, but they still get closed all the time.
Linearskillz
Member
In my fictional idealized world I like to think that successful indies will transition into a new mid-tier. One that breaks free of the shackles of traditional publishing and embraces the digital future.
The decline of big AAA is a self-fulfilling prophecy, though. I think Jim Sterling covered this enough.
Edit: I'd like to add that for all the shit we love to give Ubisoft, they seem to be working on a decent amount of mid-tier stuff lately (Blood Dragon, Gunslinger, Child of Light, Valiant Hearts, probably others...).
The decline of big AAA is a self-fulfilling prophecy, though. I think Jim Sterling covered this enough.
Edit: I'd like to add that for all the shit we love to give Ubisoft, they seem to be working on a decent amount of mid-tier stuff lately (Blood Dragon, Gunslinger, Child of Light, Valiant Hearts, probably others...).
And are also filled with accessories and other better margin items then just games themselves.
Exactly. The amount of shelving containing actual games has shrunk dramatically across the board. Nintendo is the hardest hit, but that makes sense.
Do bear in mind that they'll still be wanting to get a return on that smaller portfolio, and I hope they're not relying on the notion that a third of the games means each one will get three times the sales...
PandaPedinte
Member
While I don't completely agree about the death of mid-tier games, at least on PC, I believe indie games can, and are already to a certain extent, filling the void that was left by many mid-tier studios that closed the doors during the past generation. Take as example No Man's Sky, it's being developed by a small indie studio but doesn't exactly looks or have an scope that many associate to indie games. Cloudbuilt is other indie game that can easily be considered a mid tier game.
They're expecting higher revenue as there will be less competition for AAA dollars.
They are also relying on digital, services, and mobile to increase revenue.
I agree with that outlook. A good example of a successful indie becoming mid-tier might be Double Fine.
It would probably be mid-tier by mid-life PS2 standards.
PS4 mid-tier would be more like $15-$25 million games.
Trickster
Member
But aren't those "top tier franchises" exactly what the AAA games are essentially? If you go below that top tier area, then you'd be in AA or A territory, right?
So if anything, isn't the part of the gaming market that's declining actually the mid tier retail games, rather than top of the pop franchises in the AAA tier
And even then, does such a mid tier decline matter with the meteoric rises of indie games?
Barkley's Justice
Member
Frankly, that sounds terrifying. And expected.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
'Triple-A is the minority'
This phrase fills me with joy.
This phrase fills me with joy.
Not for me. From the ashes the phoenix will rise and gaming will be born anew. It's already happening and I'm constantly being blown away by the output of indie devs.
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
I could definitely see current successful indie devs begin churning out mid-tier budget games in the near future. Something like how PvZ has led to Garden Warfare.
Also, episodic titles are the new mid-tier budget games. Stuff like the Walking Dead Season entries.
Also, episodic titles are the new mid-tier budget games. Stuff like the Walking Dead Season entries.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
I never really noticed the 1983 crash to be honest, I moved onto the arcades and the ZX Spectrum and had the videogaming time of my life.
PseudoViper
Member
I hope game get better, but idk... sometimes I wonder about the gaming industry. For the most part games have been meh as of late for me.
Dr. Zoidberg
Member
I'm okay with this but for a different reason than most of you.
For many years, I've thought that there are just too many games coming out. I have limited tastes and even then there was still no way I was able to play everything to completion that I enjoyed. Working full-time probably is a big factor here, since it decreases my spare time and also allows me to purchase more games. A reduction in the number of tent-pole releases will actually allow me to stay current or even play titles from the old backlog.
I'm sure there will be a flood of lower-budget indie titles to help fill the gap but personally speaking I can safely ignore 90% of these as I've gotten quite tired of retro-graphics and other cheap stylized graphical effects. If they are really good I'll be there day 1 but most of them aren't.
For many years, I've thought that there are just too many games coming out. I have limited tastes and even then there was still no way I was able to play everything to completion that I enjoyed. Working full-time probably is a big factor here, since it decreases my spare time and also allows me to purchase more games. A reduction in the number of tent-pole releases will actually allow me to stay current or even play titles from the old backlog.
I'm sure there will be a flood of lower-budget indie titles to help fill the gap but personally speaking I can safely ignore 90% of these as I've gotten quite tired of retro-graphics and other cheap stylized graphical effects. If they are really good I'll be there day 1 but most of them aren't.
Why does less AAA games mean more indie games? They have absolutely nothing to do with each other.
Weltall Zero
Member
I'm perfectly OK with less AAA games. With any luck that'll leave more of the ecosystem open for games that don't care about photorealism.
"early"? That seems to describe current Hollywood perfectly to me; if anything, the trend gets worse and worse.
And most of them look really uninteresting so far. This is just sad
Reminds me of early Hollywood:
"our films aren't making money, what do we do?"
"up the budget, that'll fix it!"
"early"? That seems to describe current Hollywood perfectly to me; if anything, the trend gets worse and worse.
Raven77
Member
Wait a minute, if there are 66% less AAA gamess being made, where are all the layoffs? I mean sure I've heard of some layoffs here and there, and at Sony. I also know that a bigger budget means more people but you can only have so many of a particular position. Are these devs now making more non AAA titles?
Part of me thinks this is somewhat PR spin to account for the much lower adoption rate of UE4 compared to UE3. The release schedule definitely makes it seem true, but we're also just a few months into a new generation with E3 coming up soon. I expect the list of AAA titles to grow significantly after E3.
Part of me thinks this is somewhat PR spin to account for the much lower adoption rate of UE4 compared to UE3. The release schedule definitely makes it seem true, but we're also just a few months into a new generation with E3 coming up soon. I expect the list of AAA titles to grow significantly after E3.
I don't even know what an indie developer is anymore. Some indies today would be considered big AAA developers just a few years ago.
Actually even today.. Mojang, everyones loveable underdog indie developer raked in a staggering 330 million dollars just last year, one year! And people generally still consider them/notch "indie" for some odd reason. Yeah they are "independent", but come on..
Seems to me it's more an issue of redefining the low-end tier as just about anything that isn't AAA now. It's just "indie" or it's AAA. There are still plenty of games that are being made with the breadth and depth of anything that's been previously defined as "mid-tier".
Trickster
Member
Seems pretty straight forward to me tbh
Less AAA games = less time playing AAA games
Less time playing AAA games = more time playing indie games
More time playing indie games = more demand for indie games
More demand for indie games = more indie games being made
Notch doesn't consider Mojang indie, and neither do a lot of people. In fact people bursted out laughing when Microsoft used Minecraft as them "supporting indie devs" around the Xbox One reveal.
Spot on. I have backed so many games in the last 12 months when they finally reach completion (and some are very close) I'm gonna have a crazy amount of games to play.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
And so, the industry reenters lucidity after an 8-year stay in the funny farm.
Eh. After seeing this first hand myself, I'm setting up counseling sessions to get people thru a time where nothing goes their way.
Eh. After seeing this first hand myself, I'm setting up counseling sessions to get people thru a time where nothing goes their way.
fargofallout
Member
If the assessment of games having three times the budget is accurate, that's sort of absurd. How long can that sort of escalation go on before more companies go bankrupt? Not every game can be GTA V.
It's not like people working for AAA companies are going to quit and move to the indie market, though. They're not two parts of a singular market that adds up to 100%.
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
1 - Mass layoffs aren't necessary in an industry runs by contracts. Programmer X finishes development of a game and completes obligations of his contract. He moves on and tries to find a new project. If projects are decreasing, he won't have been laid off, he'll just not have been able to find a new job.
2 - With increasing budgets on larger games you also have increasing teams. So programmers and artists can be absorbed into larger projects.
Trickster
Member
Agreed. But they are still part of the same eco system, as such it's pretty much impossible for them to not have some affect on each other.
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
You might be misreading sentiment there, although I'm sure there are outright indie haters as well.
Most gamers I know who are depressed by the state of affairs are those who can't justify the price of new hardware when a decreasing number of games are able to do justice to the hardware. Sure, some indie games do look great like Brothers: AoTS, but most of them are simply not taking advantage of the graphical capabilities of their respective machines.
The issue is what's disappearing though no?
I went over this earlier, but the ceiling on indie games is clearly rising. We're probably still capping out in the single million digit range though.
Off the top of my head, here is an example of the tier of gaming that tanked at retail that we don't see a lot of anymore:
-Binary Domain
-Vanquish
-Beyond Good & Evil
-Darksiders
-Red Faction
-Most middle-budget console JRPGs (think Lost Odyssey, Star Ocean, Resonance of Fate, Valkyria Chronicles, White Knight Chronicles, Valkyrie Profile)
-Prince of Persia
-Kane & Lynch
Not all of these cost all the way up to $15 million. That's probably a bit high bar for me to set.
We sometimes get something like one or two big games in the genre, or a mid-tier company that's succeeding by having a successful niche, but the amount has tanked.
Now, of course, not many of these were very popular, so not a lot of people are going to mourn their passing, but it's not unusual for someone to have liked some of them.
What these games all have in common is that around the time of their death they weren't at the top of the pile in terms of success, but they also weren't on the bottom of the pile budgetarily, so they got cut in favor of bigger franchises or putting resources elsewhere in general.
I mean yes, of course mid-tier is being redefined. That's because AAA is also being redefined and indie gaming is as well. If we wheel back to 2007 a $40 million budget would sound gigantic, you could count the major indie games on two hands, and $10-$15 million licensed games and original IPs in popular genres were quite common. That's not the situation in 2014 where a $40 million budget is bog standard for a AAA release, indie games are extremely plentiful, and the gap in between hardly gets as many releases as it used to.
flyinpiranha
Member
I didn't think they would honestly. I figured the tech would catch up, companies would create more realistic projects, etc ..
I mean, how much did inFAMOUS: SS cost? It's the single most impressive game I've played in months. Absolutely gorgeous visuals and a huge world that is very detailed. I couldn't find anything outside of a 'speculation' article.
I think the problem is there is no middle ground, there needs to be a $25m budget for a $39.99 game or something.
I'll admit, I was optimistic. But I also think the biggest studios are going to say this to justify their price hikes and DLC additions. I'd rather see the actual numbers for these games than somebody saying "OH MAN, so much money, so much ... you don't even know, bro! We're practically giving them away for free at $60".
I get there will be price increases ... but it seems more like mismanagement of funds than an increase in quality. I mean, PC games have been produced at these resolutions for 10 years ... why is it that it's going to be double/triple to do that on a console?
The funny thing is though, increasing the budget tends to work with Hollywood movies. It doesn't even have to be a particularly good movie. Just slap a lot of CGI in there and have lots of 'stuff' thrown at the audience. It will do well. It is the mid-tier movies that seem to be the most risk.
Jibbajabbawockky
Member
I'm curious whether this sort of trend holds up for the whole of this generation though. With something like DA3, is part of the reason its taken longer and has more resources/larger team due to the fact that its also the first BioWare game breaking ground with Frostbite? So when Mass Effect or whatever new IP BioWare is working on takes development priority, the leg work and systems developed for DA3 can be borrowed for whatever new games they're making, potentially saving time and resources? Same goes with Frostbite overall at EA, or a lot of other publishers using their own engines.
It also seems like on PC at least, you still have some sort of mid tier games that maybe once would have been considered AAA. Something like Pillars of Eternity seems to have a lot of the same production values of a Baldur's Gate 2. For it's time, I would have considered BG2 a "AAA" RPG. Yet now, only something like Skyrim or DA3 will be considered "AAA."
Just seems incredibly risky for these "AAA" publishers to be scaling back so much and putting all of their eggs in so few baskets. If something like DA3 were to flop where does that put EA? I guess with such fewer titles being released, the expectations for these "AAA" titles gets raised as well. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes, that's for sure.