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[WinFonda]

You have to be joking, putting aside the fact that the EU doesn't cancel out the 360 US lead for the CY [using only the countries in these graphs], the US 4Q numbers put some other countries LTD numbers to shame (assuming equivalent sell-through to prior years).

Not sure what you're getting at, jr. The PS3 has a .8 million lead in Europe. 360 has a 1 million lead in the US. Keep fighting the good fight, I guess.

 

[jcm]

My point is that for some reason everyone holds up the total worldwide number as some kind of goal but it's a goal to what? If company A loses money on each system and company B makes money on each system, is company A the winner because they sold more units than company B? No, the name of the game has always been profit, not userbase. The winners will be the ones who make the most profit, not sell the most units. These don't always go hand in hand.

These companies make money off games. For every third party game, MS/Sony/Nintendo get around $12-$15 on each disc as it leaves the factory. All for doing nothing more than a few weeks of QA for cert at the end of the project. Selling 10 million copies of BLOPS? Well, that is 150 million for the console owner for doing nothing. That's what matters. So using worldwide numbers only relates to the game. Sony/MS make pretty much nothing off Madden in Japan even if both of them had 100 million units sold over there. That's why I'm saying Worldwide numbers only really matter to bullet points on PR statements and a power point slide at E3 but in the real world, it's a game by game basis.

I am interested in sales of course, I like to try to understand why some systems sell more in one region over the other instead of stupidly saying Europe=World.

Do people in Japan buy fewer games per console than people in the West? Granted, nobody is making money of Madden sales in Japan, but plenty of people are making money off other game sales in Japan, and EA isn't going to stop making Madden PS3 due to US sales any more than they'll cancel 360 FIFA due to EU sales.

At the end of the day, we're discussing a silly horse race that is of no import to any of us, or anyone else. But that's what we've been doing for years now. Why suddenly stop?

Seems like Meristation just stole the graphs.

I love the fact that they watermarked Nintendo's pictures. Wouldn't want anyone to infringe copyright now, would we, Meritstation.

 

[NavNucST3]

Not sure what you're getting at, jr. The PS3 has a .8 million lead in Europe. 360 has a 1 million lead in the US. Keep fighting the good fight, I guess.

This is your well constructed retort? I'M fighting the good fight...with data...that you then don't use to refute my statement and summarily dismiss the latter portion, ok, I get it CY Q4 is simply unimportant nothing major happens during that time. What a simple minded response "jr." yes that happens to be my status did it happen to invalidate what I stated would it help if I gave my number of years as a game developer?

 

[WinFonda]

This is your well constructed retort? I'M fighting the good fight...with data...that you then don't use to refute my statement and summarily dismiss the latter portion, ok, I get it CY Q4 is simply unimportant nothing major happens during that time. What a simple minded response "jr." yes that happens to be my status did it happen to invalidate what I stated would it help if I gave my number of years as a game developer?

So what do I need to refute? Are you sure you're congruent with the data? Does your screen say the 360 is selling more or something?

Yes. Give me your work phone, too. I'd love to chat with you and your boss about the console wars.

 

[jcm]

This is your well constructed retort? I'M fighting the good fight...with data...that you then don't use to refute my statement and summarily dismiss the latter portion, ok, I get it CY Q4 is simply unimportant nothing major happens during that time. What a simple minded response "jr." yes that happens to be my status did it happen to invalidate what I stated would it help if I gave my number of years as a game developer?

200K units out of 10M total units is a rounding error, and if you have a source for US vs EU total 4Q sales I'd love to see it. I agree he shouldn't have called you junior, though.

 

[BKK]

You have to be joking, putting aside the fact that the EU doesn't cancel out the 360 US lead for the CY [using only the countries in these graphs], the US 4Q numbers put some other countries LTD numbers to shame (assuming equivalent sell-through to prior years).

This didn't hold up for last year when 2010 Q4 PS3 EU increased over 300% whereas 2010 Q4 360 US increased under 300%. There doesn't seem to be any pattern of significant Q4 advantage for one console over the other as you suggest.

 

[Chris1964]

Would you happen to have CY10 Q4 by region for reference?

 

[NavNucST3]

200K units out of 10M total units is a rounding error, and if you have a source for US vs EU total 4Q sales I'd love to see it. I agree he shouldn't have called you junior, though.

You even posted in the thread earlier this year. One moment...EDIT: LOL, thanks Chris. That's what I found earlier I'll try and get the NPD's in here as well.

I should point out that I am in no way saying that if MSFT is talking sell-in that they will "win" the year, I DO, however, think that if they are talking sell-through that they have a high probability.

 

[Aika'svyse]

I always think about what if the PS3 managed to become number 2 after all these years. That doesnt mean that MS would never recapture the lead. I actually think they play better from behind.

 

[kadotsu]

This didn't hold up for last year when 2010 Q4 PS3 EU increased over 300% whereas 2010 Q4 360 US increased under 300%. There doesn't seem to be any pattern of significant Q4 advantage for one console over the other as you suggest.

Ice cold!

But mad props to you. where did you get these graphs or data to generate the graphs. My google-fu is to weak when it comes to sales charts.

 

[NavNucST3]

This didn't hold up for last year when 2010 Q4 PS3 EU increased over 300% whereas 2010 Q4 360 US increased under 300%. There doesn't seem to be any pattern of significant Q4 advantage for one console over the other as you suggest.

Why deal in percentages when we can simply go with numbers?

NPD:
PS3: ~2M in Q4 2010
360: 3.5+M in Q4 2010

EU:
[trying to find a pixel counters post]

Wish we could insert pivot tables...

 

[bigtroyjon]

This didn't hold up for last year when 2010 Q4 PS3 EU increased over 300% whereas 2010 Q4 360 US increased under 300%. There doesn't seem to be any pattern of significant Q4 advantage for one console over the other as you suggest.

Percentages don't matter since the discussion is about the unit sales.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

This.

Sony has a stronger brand loyalty in the EU than Microsoft. This is obviously due to the PlayStation legacy but its also due to PlayStation is associated with. The 360 is really (mainly) associated with shooters, whereas PlayStation is associated with Football, Platformers, Racers, JRPG's, action adventure, social gaming (Singstar, EyeToy). Sony also market the PlayStation brand quite mainstreamly here. PlayStation is all over the place in the Champions League for example. Recent ads on Channel 5 have even advertised the PlayStation Store and some of its content.

Microsoft have made efforts to diversify their portfolio, which will help combat this issue down the line.

European Culture varies quite a bit from country to country and the tastes will vary to different degrees. I guess PlayStation is more of a 'one size fits all' gaming solution than what the 360 represents.

I don´t think it´s about brand loyalty at all, or else Sony would have outsold MS at least 3 to 1 at least. It´s all about advertising and price. Sony and PS3 are all over the Champions League stadiums. Besides EA is advertising BF3 on the PS3. Not only that all EA franchises are advertised on the PS3. Price drop has helped to sell more PS3.

 

[BKK]

Why deal in percentages when we can simply go with numbers?

NPD:
PS3: ~2M in Q4 2010
360: 3.5+M in Q4 2010

EU:
[trying to find a pixel counters post]

Because they're the graphs supplied by Nintendo in their latest report, and they cover several years which is necessary to prove any kind of significant pattern.

Percentages don't matter since the discussion is about the unit sales.

There's a direct relationship between the two.

 

[Chris1964]

where did you get these graphs or data to generate the graphs. My google-fu is to weak when it comes to sales charts.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/index.html

Nintendo's quarter reports are heaven for sales data

 

[bigtroyjon]

There's a direct relationship between the two.

Not really, there is only a direct relationship if the unit sales in the first 9 months are the same every year. If sales are higher in one territory in the first 9 months, the percent change might not be as high as their competitor but the units gap can still increase.

 

[Busaiku]

I really think Microsoft and especially Nintendo need to start branching out to more territories.
I'm sure opening up in as many countries as they did has really helped Sony with PSP and PS3.

 

[GTP_Daverytimes]

You have to be joking, putting aside the fact that the EU doesn't cancel out the 360 US lead for the CY [using only the countries in these graphs], the US 4Q numbers put some other countries LTD numbers to shame (assuming equivalent sell-through to prior years).

If the European numbers don't cancel it out the Japan numbers certainly put's it to shame, as i said before the PS3 seems to be the more consistent across all regions.

 

[NavNucST3]

If the European numbers don't cancel it out the Japan numbers certainly put's it to shame, as i said before the PS3 seems to be the more consistent across all regions.

I concur especially as they relate to the first three calendar quarters that isn't my argument at all.

Because they're the graphs supplied by Nintendo in their latest report, and they cover several years which is necessary to prove any kind of significant pattern.



There's a direct relationship between the two.

BKK, I thoroughly enjoy your posts in the PAL thread but surely we have enough historical precedence to tell us that consoles move massive numbers in the US in calendar Q4.

200K units out of 10M total units is a rounding error, and if you have a source for US vs EU total 4Q sales I'd love to see it. I agree he shouldn't have called you junior, though.

While I would agree that 200k of 10M is a rounding error I don't see a reason to do a combined total units. 200k is what one of the consoles will move in an entire month in the non-holiday quarters.

 

[BKK]

Not really, there is only a direct relationship if the unit sales in the first 9 months are the same every year. If sales are higher in one territory in the first 9 months, the percent change might not be as high as their competitor but the units gap can still increase.

His contention was that US has a disproportionate increase in sales during Q4, which will disproportionately benefit X360. Yet the graph doesn't show this pattern for PS3 and X360; for these two consoles over the last 3 years Q4 increase was bigger in Europe four times, and bigger in US only twice, one of which was neck and neck.

Edit:

BKK, I thoroughly enjoy your posts in the PAL thread but surely we have enough historical precedence to tell us that consoles move massive numbers in the US in calendar Q4.

I don't deny that, it's the implication that Europe doesn't that I'm taking issue with.

 

[bigtroyjon]

His contention was that US has a disproportionate increase in sales during Q4, which will disproportionately benefit X360. Yet the graph doesn't show this pattern for PS3 and X360; for these two consoles over the last 3 years Q4 increase was bigger in Europe four times, and bigger in US only twice, one of which was neck and neck.

Like I said, you need to look at the units. If the US sales are bigger in the first 9 months, then they don't need to have a bigger % increase to have a higher unit increase.

 

[NavNucST3]

Like I said, you need to look at the units. If the US sales are bigger in the first 9 months, then they don't need to have a bigger % increase to have a higher unit increase.

Not sure how I missed this but it isn't even the first nine months those charts and subsequent numbers are Q4 %increase over Q3 (calendar respectively)

 

[hirokazu]

We also have evidence that PS3 sales in Australia are much higher than Wii or 360 as well now:

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/...-australian-console-sales-20111025-1mi9f.html

It infuriates me that they neither gave actual sales numbers for the year, not LTD numbers for any of the consoles. These sorts of news articles are one of the rare instances that such numbers ever get revealed for Australia.

Also, when did Gfk stop tracking games sales in Australia and when did NPD take over?

 

[El-Suave]

Just look at the Gamescom booth sizes of Sony and Microsoft year after year, the fact that one company does press conferences there etc.. That tells you a lot about what company puts more effort into Europe.
Granted, a lot of that might be due to the fact that SCEE is more independent than Microsoft Europe is but the bottom line is that it isn't rocket science that you shouldn't discount continental Europe. The sad fact is that most analysts and media outlets do when they talk about what's hot and who's not.

 

[mr_toa]

Trends being trends, it looks like Don Mattrick is going choke on a bit of a humble pie come January 2011, after his E3 "xbox 360 will be the best selling console worldwide 2011"-statement at E3 this year

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/35065/Mattrick_Xbox_360_Will_Be_Worlds_TopSelling_Console_In_2011.php

 

[yurinka]

PSP still sells hardware in Europe. Almost the same than in Japan.

 

[walking fiend]

Trends being trends, it looks like Don Mattrick is going choke on a bit of a humble pie come January 2011, after his E3 "xbox 360 will be the best selling console worldwide 2011"-statement at E3 this year

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/35065/Mattrick_Xbox_360_Will_Be_Worlds_TopSelling_Console_In_2011.php

I didn't expect this, but even Wii may sell more than 360 once holiday comes.

 

[StealthGoblin]

PSP still sells hardware in Europe. Almost the same than in Japan.

Its the software that is dying on its arse. The PSP really does seem like the casuals choice for a 'high end handheld' (at present) and they buy a shit ton of used games for it because they are dirt cheap. I've noticed a lot more younger gamers walking around with a PSP over the last year or so. It appears that the casuals aren't opposed to a Sony handheld, it just seems like the price and the selection of games really wasn't for them for far too much of its life cycle.

Vita looks like it'll suffer the same fate.

 

[iceatcs]

Its the software that is dying on its arse. The PSP really does seem like the casuals choice for a 'high end handheld' (at present) and they buy a shit ton of used games for it because they are dirt cheap. I've noticed a lot more younger gamers walking around with a PSP over the last year or so. It appears that the casuals aren't opposed to a Sony handheld, it just seems like the price and the selection of games really wasn't for them for far too much of its life cycle.

Vita looks like it'll suffer the same fate.

PSP games on PSN also affect the software sale because it don't record in Gfk. We'll never know how much it has sold on PSN store. Even 1K or 10K still help.

Of course Vita will same too because we can buy full games on PSN just like PSP.

 

[NavNucST3]

Trends being trends, it looks like Don Mattrick is going choke on a bit of a humble pie come January 2011, after his E3 "xbox 360 will be the best selling console worldwide 2011"-statement at E3 this year

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/35065/Mattrick_Xbox_360_Will_Be_Worlds_TopSelling_Console_In_2011.php

It was that statement and SNE not revising down that got me more interested in the sales this CY and FY though I imagine MSFT will mean sell-through while, obviously, for SNE we will get sell-in.

 

[mujun]

Lol at the shifting expectations.

The same people saying "it's not a surprise" are the same ones who fight tooth and nail to argue that the 360 is at parity in Europe (using the UK as the basis of their argument), except when the evidence comes out against it. Then it's "no surprise"

It's even funnier when we look and find out that the gap between US and Europe between the two consoles essentially cancel each other out. Yet all we hear is how the 360 "dominates" the US market. Apparently no more so than the PS3 dominates Europe. Lols

How come you only mention it going one way. Kind of hypocritical. There is as much downplaying by 360 supporters as there is feigned surprise at the PS3s success in Europe by PS3 supporters.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Its the software that is dying on its arse. The PSP really does seem like the casuals choice for a 'high end handheld' (at present) and they buy a shit ton of used games for it because they are dirt cheap. I've noticed a lot more younger gamers walking around with a PSP over the last year or so. It appears that the casuals aren't opposed to a Sony handheld, it just seems like the price and the selection of games really wasn't for them for far too much of its life cycle.

Vita looks like it'll suffer the same fate.

My thoughts exaxtly. $249 Vita with $40 cinemtic 5 hour long games is not something you can sell to the mainstream.

 

[AranhaHunter]

I am more surprised by PSP numbers to be honest, I was led to believe it was dead. IIRC Sony predicted 6 million PSPs and 6 million PS2s to be sold this FY, I think they'll meet that easily. I'm not sure if they'll meet the 15 million they predicted for the PS3 though.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I am more surprised by PSP numbers to be honest, I was led to believe it was dead. IIRC Sony predicted 6 million PSPs and 6 million PS2s to be sold this FY, I think they'll meet that easily. I'm not sure if they'll meet the 15 million they predicted for the PS3 though.

Me neither. Even though we'll have to wait until Tuesday for their quarterly release, but they will have had to sell 3.5m in the last quarter and have their best ever Q3, probably more than 7m sold to come close to 15m total as Q1 will be a big comedown.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Trends being trends, it looks like Don Mattrick is going choke on a bit of a humble pie come January 2011, after his E3 "xbox 360 will be the best selling console worldwide 2011"-statement at E3 this year

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/35065/Mattrick_Xbox_360_Will_Be_Worlds_TopSelling_Console_In_2011.php

The year isn't over and the 360 hasn't had a price drop in over 3 years so who knows.

 

[Ashes]

The year isn't over and the 360 hasn't had a price drop in over 3 years so who knows.

Isn't that a misnomer since so many skus go up in price, and lower in price, or effectively go up or down, or rebranded at different price point etc etc...

The x360 price point goes from £149.99 to £299.99 in the uk.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Isn't that a misnomer since so many skus go up in price, and lower in price, or effectively go up or down, or rebranded at different price point etc etc...

The x360 price point goes from £149.99 to £299.99 in the uk.

I am talking about base entry price.

 

[Ashes]

I am talking about base entry price.

The arcade used to be £129.99, but they rebuilt it up and the lowest entry cost is now £149.99, so what price cut? Do you mean back to previous levels? or across the range?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

The arcade used to be £129.99, but they rebuilt it up and the lowest entry cost is now £149.99, so what price cut? Do you mean back to previous levels? or across the range?

So MS officially dropped the price then officially raised it? Google is failing me, can you provide a link to where MS announced they were raising the base price?

 

[Ashes]

So MS officially dropped the price then officially raised it? Google is failing me, can you provide a link to where MS announced they were raising the base price?

I don't know what you mean anymore; I mean in the light of what I just said, about Microsoft's pricing strategy. Never mind. I think I got my point across, even if you didn't acknowledge it.

 

[iamshadowlark]

My point is that for some reason everyone holds up the total worldwide number as some kind of goal but it's a goal to what? If company A loses money on each system and company B makes money on each system, is company A the winner because they sold more units than company B? No, the name of the game has always been profit, not userbase. The winners will be the ones who make the most profit, not sell the most units. These don't always go hand in hand.

These companies make money off games. For every third party game, MS/Sony/Nintendo get around $12-$15 on each disc as it leaves the factory. All for doing nothing more than a few weeks of QA for cert at the end of the project. Selling 10 million copies of BLOPS? Well, that is 150 million for the console owner for doing nothing. That's what matters. So using worldwide numbers only relates to the game. Sony/MS make pretty much nothing off Madden in Japan even if both of them had 100 million units sold over there. That's why I'm saying Worldwide numbers only really matter to bullet points on PR statements and a power point slide at E3 but in the real world, it's a game by game basis.

I am interested in sales of course, I like to try to understand why some systems sell more in one region over the other instead of stupidly saying Europe=World.

Yea its called marketshare. These console makers are always thinking to the future, so im pretty sure marketshare is just about important as current profits. Consoles have a certain shelf life and when thats over you gotta have some users to sell your new thing to.

Also Im not sure at all what you are getting at about software. In this loss leader model the software is only meant to prop up a company while they try to turn there hardware profitable. The main goal is to sell as many units of hardware,at a profit, to as many people as they can. Software then becomes a mere bonus.

 

[staticneuron]

Yea its called marketshare. These console makers are always thinking to the future, so im pretty sure marketshare is just about important as current profits. Consoles have a certain shelf life and when thats over you gotta have some users to sell your new thing to.

Also Im not sure at all what you are getting at about software. In this loss leader model the software is only meant to prop up a company while they try to turn there hardware profitable. The main goal is to sell as many units of hardware,at a profit, to as many people as they can. Software then becomes a mere bonus.

You have that totally backwards. Software is the bread and butter hardware is the bonus. Hardware sales are important because that means more software should sell.

Install base is also important in vying for third party attention.

 

[NavNucST3]

His contention was that US has a disproportionate increase in sales during Q4, which will disproportionately benefit X360. Yet the graph doesn't show this pattern for PS3 and X360; for these two consoles over the last 3 years Q4 increase was bigger in Europe four times, and bigger in US only twice, one of which was neck and neck.

Edit:



I don't deny that, it's the implication that Europe doesn't that I'm taking issue with.

Again though, I'm not talking in percentages.

In CY2010, through the first three quarters the PS3 in Japan had a 915k unit lead while in the US they had "only" a 866k deficit we know they were outselling in the EU countries in the Nintendo slides. This would mean that overall through the first three quarters they had the overall unit lead against the 360. My contention has and continues to be that the US holiday moves so many units that you can end the year like 2010 whereby you have:

CY 2010
PS3
US: 4,333,500
EU: 2,774,000
JA: 1,586,122

360
US: 6,764,089
EU: 2,549,000
JA: 210,826

In the case of last year in the US, the 360 alone moved more units than the combination of PS3 and 360 in the EU (again, for those countries covered in Nintendo slides) and almost as much as adding in the Japan PS3 units. The 360 US Oct-Dec quarter erased the entire years Japan deficit with enough left over to defray their EU deficit which as many can see has never been very large. My contention hasn't changed, of course, we seemingly follow the November doubles October and December doubles November but when you exclude actual units it obfuscates.

 

[Fafalada]

snip

According to these figures, PS3 already outsold Europe's 2010 entire year in first 3 quarters, with holiday still to come.
It's pretty easy to extrapolate with %s (or previous year holiday sales) to estimate where it might end up.

 

[NavNucST3]

According to these figures, PS3 already outsold Europe's 2010 entire year in first 3 quarters, with holiday still to come.
It's pretty easy to extrapolate with %s (or previous year holiday sales) to estimate where it might end up.

I'm not arguing that Faf, in fact, thats essentially what I'm doing in looking at the prior year and cy q4. If you look at the B3D thread it might contain a little more info.

I actually don't have my data sheet with me so if someone wants to run out the projections that would actually be great this way we can match that against the CY 2011 predictions thread and see how people are doing and we'd have a baseline prior to the NPD for predictions there AND we could see just how well any of us could model.

As previous long position on MSFT, SNE, and NTDOY it is really about the sheer numbers to me. The numbers are so fascinating to me that it is the reason why I even thought about going back into games but from the business side this time cause the dev side at MWY under Redstone...no thanks.

 

[noobie]

Doesnt Nintendo even have NPD Canada Numbers.? is NPD Canada still around or its gone like Australian Tracker?

 

[hirokazu]

Doesnt Nintendo even have NPD Canada Numbers.? is NPD Canada still around or its gone like Australian Tracker?

It seems like Australia is tracked by NPD now and they don't release any data publicly.

 

[noobie]

but do Nintendo North America numbers include Canada or not?

 

[Flayer]

Arguing over whether the PS3 or 360 is marginally ahead of the other seems pointless when they are obviously close enough to each other that every developer would prefer to release multiplatform. The only reason to do exclusives these days is to get a big marketing budget from either Microsoft or Sony.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Arguing over whether the PS3 or 360 is marginally ahead of the other seems pointless when they are obviously close enough to each other that every developer would prefer to release multiplatform. The only reason to do exclusives these days is to get a big marketing budget from either Microsoft or Sony.

The battle for second place is moot. It only serves as fodder for the console warriors, a PR statement, and a bullet point on a Power Point slide at E3. But to the rest of the gaming world, it means 100% nothing.